ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.89% to 2,304.14 units (FTSE Large Cap: 0.89%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.88%, Banks Index: +1.49%) and the traded value was shaped at €298.6m, down from Wednesday’s €307.0m. We another positive session, with banks in focus today.
· Building permits up in November 2025
· Banking System Loans | January 2026
· Banking System Deposits | January 2026
· MSCI quarterly rebalancing today amc-no changes in the Greek index
· Alpha Bank 4Q25 Results Review | Strong 4Q25 results, Q4 Reported Profit at €237m beating Optima and consensus estimate, payout at 55%, 2026 EPS guidance at €0.40
· Piraeus Bank 4Q25 Results Review | Strong 4Q25 results in line with estimates, driven by strong fee income, Payout raised at 55% in cash
· Eurobank 4Q25 Results and Business Plan Review: Strong results FY25, Business Plan Upgraded: 17% RoTBV by 2028, EPS Growing at 10% CAGR and Higher Payouts
· HELLENiQ ENERGY 4Q/FY25 results Review: results in line with our call and consensus, reported profitability burdened by heavy inventory losses; Declared a €0.40 final DPS
· OTE 4Q25 Results Review | Total Revenue and FCF beat our estimates, Payout 100%, DPS at €0.8777
· Ideal Holdings FY25 Results out
Macro Headlines
Building permits up in November 2025
According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, increased by 9.9% y-o-y in November 2025. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 10.8% and by 17.0% y-o-y respectively. In the December 2024-November 2025 period, Greek building activity dropped by 1.4% y-o-y in terms of permits, by 8.6% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 4.8% y-o-y in terms of volume.
Sector Headlines
Banking System Loans | January 2026
|
(EUR m) |
Nov’25 |
Dec ’25 |
Jan’26 |
|
Total credit |
203,052 |
207,158 |
204,544 |
|
General Government |
76,603 |
77,054 |
76,648 |
|
Private sector |
126,450 |
130,105 |
127,896 |
|
Corporate |
88,198 |
91,749 |
89,762 |
|
Sole Proprietors |
3,685 |
3,825 |
3,700 |
|
Household |
34,567 |
34,530 |
34,434 |
|
Total Economy Monthly net flow |
1,827 |
4,632 |
-2,460 |
|
% y-o-y |
5.0% |
5.5% |
4.9% |
|
Private sector Monthly net flow |
1,303 |
3,876 |
-2,144 |
|
% y-o-y |
7.2% |
7.9% |
7.6% |
source: BoG
Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at €204.5bn in January 2026 (+4.9% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €2,460m), on the back of monthly net outflow by €2,144m of the private sector, whilst the General Government recorded a monthly net outflow of €315m. Loans to the private sector reached c. €127.9bn (+7.6% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €2,144m), driven by corporate loans that came in at €89.8bn (+11.1% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €1,974m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at €3,700bn (-1.6% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €116m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at €34.4bn (2.5% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €53m). Housing loans came in at €25.7bn (1.0% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €38m). Consumer credit reached €8.6bn (+7.0 y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €26m). Corporate loans accounted for 70.3% of private sector loans, household loans for 26.9% and loans to sole proprietors for 2.9% respectively.
Banking System Deposits | January 2026
|
(EUR m) |
Nov ’25 |
Dec ’25 |
Jan 26 |
|
System Deposits |
215,860 |
221,784 |
216,836 |
|
General Government |
8,887 |
8,582 |
8,921 |
|
Private sector |
206,973 |
213,203 |
207,915 |
|
Corporate |
54,537 |
58,366 |
53,849 |
|
Household |
152,436 |
154,836 |
154,065 |
|
Private Sector Monthly net flow |
1,032 |
6,325 |
-5184 |
|
Private Sector % y-o-y |
4.9% |
5.1% |
5,0% |
source: BoG
Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at €216.8bn (+5.3% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €4,845m) in January 2026. General Government deposits reached €8.9bn (+11.5% y-o-y, monthly net inflow of €339m) and private sector deposits amounted to €207.9bn (+5.0% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €5,184m). Corporate deposits came in at €53.8bn (+26.0% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €4,429m) and household deposits reached €154.1bn (+3.7% y-o-y, monthly net outflow of €756m). Household deposits accounted for 74.1% of private sector deposits and corporation for the remaining 25.9%. The monthly increase in private sector deposits in January is attributed to household deposits. Time deposits recorded a monthly outflow of €286m to €33.8bn and accounted for 16.8% of system depos vs. 16.0% in December. Liquidity remains ample, with the LDR at 61.5% vs. 61.0% in December and the commercial surplus at €80.0bn from €83.1bn in December.
Market Headlines
MSCI quarterly rebalancing today amc-no changes in the Greek index
MSCI’s quarterly rebalancing will take place today after the market close, with no additions or deletions for the Greek names.
Company Headlines
Alpha Bank || Buy | Target Price: €4.28 | CP: €3.75
4Q25 Results Review | Strong 4Q25 results, Q4 Reported Profit at €237m beating Optima and consensus estimate, payout at 55%, 2026 EPS guidance at €0.40
Optima View | Alpha bank delivered a strong set of results exceeding both our estimates and consensus, driven by higher NII, mainly supported by Astrobank’s consolidation and credit expansion. Net credit expansion reached €1.25bn in 4Q, bringing the full‑year increase to €3.5bn for 2025, above guidance. Fee income was also a significant contributor, rising +12% q-o-q (or +10% excluding AstroBank). For 2026, management targets EPS of €0.40 (+11% y-o-y), broadly in line with consensus.
4Q25 results | Reported net profit reached €237m (+29% q‑o‑q, +50% y-o-y), 21% over Optima’s estimate and 16% above consensus. NII came in at €413m (+3% q‑o‑q, +2% y‑o‑y), broadly in line with expectations. Fee income was strong at €136m (+11% q‑o‑q), outperforming Optima and consensus estimate by 14% and 10% respectively. Operating expenses of €227m (+8% q-o-q) better than consensus, driving PPI to €355m—5% ahead of both Optima and consensus. Loan provisions stood at €61m (+36% q‑o‑q, ‑3% y‑o‑y), reflecting cost of risk 58bps in Q4, 48bps in FY25 vs consensus of 47bps.
FY25 results | On a full-year basis, NII reached €1.61bn (-2% y-o-y) in line with our estimates, while fee income grew strongly to €501m (+19% y-o-y), outperforming our expectations by 7%. Operating expenses flat y-o-y, better than expected, while impairment charges lower by 16% y-o-y and 5% above our estimations. Overall, net profit closed at €943m (+44% y-o-y), better than our projections by 5%.
Quarterly P&L results
|
(€ m) |
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
QoQ |
4Q24 |
YoY |
|
Cons 4Q25e |
vs Cons |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
413 |
402 |
3% |
406 |
2% |
|
414 |
0% |
-1% |
|
Fee income & rental income |
136 |
122 |
11% |
115 |
18% |
|
124 |
10% |
14% |
|
Core income |
549 |
524 |
5% |
521 |
5% |
|
538 |
2% |
2% |
|
Trading & other income |
33 |
-4 |
-925% |
47 |
-30% |
|
37 |
-11% |
-18% |
|
Total revenues |
582 |
520 |
12% |
568 |
2% |
|
575 |
1% |
1% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-227 |
-211 |
8% |
-235 |
-3% |
|
-237 |
-4% |
-7% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
355 |
309 |
15% |
333 |
7% |
|
338 |
5% |
6% |
|
LLPs |
-61 |
-45 |
36% |
-63 |
-3% |
|
-47 |
30% |
18% |
|
Other |
9 |
-18 |
-150% |
-19 |
-147% |
|
11 |
-18% |
-33% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
237 |
184 |
29% |
158 |
50% |
|
204 |
16% |
21% |
|
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate |
|
|
|
|
|||||
Annual P&L results
|
(€ m) |
2025 |
2024 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,610 |
1,647 |
-2% |
0% |
|
Fee income & rental income |
501 |
422 |
19% |
7% |
|
Core income |
2,111 |
2,069 |
2% |
1% |
|
Trading & other income |
100 |
138 |
-28% |
-22% |
|
Total revenues |
2,211 |
2,207 |
0% |
0% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-850 |
-853 |
0% |
-3% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
1,361 |
1,354 |
1% |
2% |
|
LLPs |
-198 |
-236 |
-16% |
5% |
|
Other |
54 |
-136 |
-140% |
-9% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
943 |
654 |
44% |
5% |
|
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate |
||||
Piraeus Bank || Buy | CP: €8.124 | TP: €9.66
4Q25 Results Review | Strong 4Q25 results in line with estimates, driven by strong fee income, Payout raised at 55% in cash
Optima View | Piraeus delivered a solid set of results broadly in line with both Optima and consensus expectations, supported by strong fee income despite the drag from one‑off costs. Net credit expansion closed comfortably above the €3.5bn target at €3.9bn, with momentum expected to continue into 1Q26. Management surprised positively by lifting the payout ratio to 55%, exceeding our expectations. The proposed €0.40 cash dividend implies a 7% total yield for 2025. Attention now turns to the Capital Markets Day on 5 March 2026 in London, where management will present the 2026–2029 Business Plan, including the strategic roadmap for Ethniki Insurance.
4Q25 results | Reported net profit reached €250m (‑4% q‑o‑q, +37% y-o-y), 1% below Optima’s estimate but 1% above consensus. NII came in at €477m (+1% q‑o‑q, ‑7% y‑o‑y), broadly in line with expectations. Fee income was particularly strong at €206m (+26% q‑o‑q), outperforming Optima and consensus estimate by 15%. Operating expenses of €256m were in line with forecasts, driving PPI to €467m—12% ahead of both Optima and consensus. Loan provisions stood at €92m (+36% q‑o‑q, ‑28% y‑o‑y), supporting a further improvement in asset quality, with the NPE ratio at 2% and NPE coverage at 73.1%.
FY25 results | On a full-year basis, NII reached €1.9bn (-9% y-o-y) in line with our estimates, while fee income grew strongly to €696m (+7% y-o-y), outperforming our expectations by 4%. Operating expenses up by 3% y-o-y, as expected, while impairment charges rose 3% y-o-y and came in 13% above our estimations. Overall, net profit closed at €1.1bn in line with our projection, a solid performance considering the normalization of interest rates.
Piraeus Bank – CC Highlights
1. Comfortable with 55% payout and resulting CET1.
2. Future distributions expected in cash.
3. NII trough seen in Q3
4. Strong Q1 corporate loan pipeline, no urgency to push in year-end
5. Retail lending expected to continue growing.
6. Solid results enabled one‑offs and further balance‑sheet cleanup, incl. €35m equity participation one‑off impairment.
7. Katseli-law book down to €50m performing loans; no CoR impact expected, pending final rules.
Quarterly P&L results
|
(€ m) |
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
QoQ |
4Q24 |
YoY |
|
Cons 4Q25e |
vs Cons |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
477 |
471 |
1% |
514 |
-7% |
|
475 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fee income & rental income |
206 |
164 |
26% |
167 |
23% |
|
180 |
15% |
15% |
|
Core income |
683 |
635 |
8% |
681 |
0% |
|
655 |
4% |
4% |
|
Trading & other income |
39 |
13 |
194% |
49 |
-20% |
|
15 |
161% |
201% |
|
Total revenues |
723 |
648 |
11% |
730 |
-1% |
|
670 |
8% |
8% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-256 |
-211 |
21% |
-264 |
-3% |
|
-253 |
1% |
1% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
467 |
437 |
7% |
466 |
0% |
|
416 |
12% |
12% |
|
LLPs |
-92 |
-68 |
36% |
-127 |
-28% |
|
-65 |
41% |
56% |
|
Other |
-101 |
-19 |
435% |
-113 |
-11% |
|
-13 |
674% |
571% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
250 |
261 |
-4% |
183 |
37% |
|
247 |
1% |
-1% |
Annual P&L results
|
(€ m) |
2025 |
2024 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,903 |
2,088 |
-9% |
0% |
|
Fee income & rental income |
696 |
648 |
7% |
4% |
|
Core income |
2,598 |
2,736 |
-5% |
1% |
|
Trading & other income |
109 |
21 |
420% |
32% |
|
Total revenues |
2,707 |
2,757 |
-2% |
2% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-903 |
-877 |
3% |
0% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
1,805 |
1,880 |
-4% |
3% |
|
LLPs |
-289 |
-281 |
3% |
13% |
|
Other |
-138 |
-168 |
-18% |
165% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
1,070 |
1,066 |
0% |
0% |
Eurobank || Buy | CP: €3.921 | TP: €4.60
4Q25 Results and Business Plan Review: Strong results FY25, Business Plan Upgraded: 17% RoTBV by 2028, EPS Growing at 10% CAGR and Higher Payouts
Optima view | Eurobank closed FY25 ahead of its profitability target, delivering a RoTBV of 16% versus guidance of 15%, supported by strong loan growth of€5.3bn, well above our €4bn estimate and €3.5bn target, and a solid beat in Q4 in fee income generation. The focus now shifts on the execution of the new Business Plan, with management upgrading its medium‑term profitability outlook and targeting RoTBV of 17% by 2028. This strong profitability will be driven by 7.5% annual loan growth, a 7.5% increase in investment securities and synergies captured across the Group, particularly in Cyprus.
4Q25 results | Net profit before one-offs reached €354 (+2% q-o-q), 1% above Optima and consensus. NII came in at €647m (+2% q-o-q), also 1% ahead of expectations, driven by standout credit expansion. Fee income stood at €213m (+11% q-o-q), outperforming Optima (+11%) and consensus (+6%). Operating expenses at €328m were in line with forecasts, driving PPI to €538m, 3% ahead of Optima and 2% above consensus. Loan provisions at €70m (-14% q-o-q, -22% y-o-y), materially better than expected.
FY25 results | On a full year basis, NII reached €2.5bn (+2% y-o-y) in line with our estimates, while fee income grew strongly to €770m (+16% y-o-y). Operating expenses up by 17% y-o-y, as expected, while impairment charges lower by 4% y-o-y, below our estimations by 3%. Overall, net profit before one-offs in line with our estimation at €1.4bn (-5% y-o-y), a strong performance despite interest rates normalization.
Business Plan | Management now targets a sustainable RoTBV of 17% by 2028, up from the previous 15% ambition, alongside a roughly 50% increase in cumulative shareholder payouts for 2026–2028. The plan assumes payout ratios of 55% in 2026–2027 and at least 55% in 2028. Growth is underpinned by robust organic loan expansion—6% CAGR in Greece and 10% in international operations—while fee income is projected to grow at 10.5% CAGR, driven mainly by insurance and asset management. Operating expenses are expected to rise moderately at 5% per year, allowing the C/I ratio to improve to 35% in 2028 from 37% in 2025, despite €730m in IT investments over 2026–2028. Financial targets include core operating profit increasing from €1.9bn in 2026 to €2.3bn in 2028, EPS compounding at 10% annually, and CET1 remaining above 14% post‑distributions.
CC Highlights
1. Outperformed all financial targets set for 2025.
2. Estimate strong loan growth in Greece 6% and Bulgaria and Cyprus 10%.
3. Insurance and wealth management has the potential to outpace GDP growth, becoming key revenue contributors and reaching 26% of total income by 2028.
4. Eurolife acquisition to be completed in Q2 2026.
5. Elevated IT capex through 2028 with future productivity gains not yet quantified.
6. No impact from Katseli law ruling.
Quarterly P&L results
|
(€ m) |
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
QoQ |
4Q24 |
YoY |
|
Cons 4Q25e |
vs Cons |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
647 |
632 |
2% |
677 |
-5% |
|
639 |
1% |
1% |
|
Fee income |
213 |
193 |
11% |
215 |
-1% |
|
201 |
6% |
11% |
|
Core income |
860 |
825 |
4% |
893 |
-4% |
|
842 |
2% |
3% |
|
Trading & other income |
6 |
20 |
-70% |
-2 |
-357% |
|
13 |
-52% |
-56% |
|
Total revenues |
866 |
844 |
3% |
890 |
-3% |
|
855 |
1% |
2% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-328 |
-316 |
4% |
-317 |
3% |
|
-326 |
0% |
1% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
538 |
528 |
2% |
573 |
-6% |
|
530 |
2% |
3% |
|
Loan provisions |
-70 |
-82 |
-14% |
-90 |
-22% |
|
-80 |
-12% |
-12% |
|
Net Profit adjusted |
354 |
347 |
2% |
340 |
4% |
|
352 |
1% |
1% |
Annual P&L results
|
(€ m) |
2025 |
2024 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
2,549 |
2,507 |
2% |
0% |
|
Fee income |
770 |
666 |
16% |
3% |
|
Core income |
3,319 |
3,173 |
5% |
1% |
|
Trading & other income |
52 |
69 |
-24% |
-13% |
|
Total revenues |
3,372 |
3,242 |
4% |
1% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-1,258 |
-1,071 |
17% |
0% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
2,114 |
2,171 |
-3% |
1% |
|
Loan provisions |
-308 |
-319 |
-4% |
-3% |
|
Net Profit adjusted |
1,412 |
1,484 |
-5% |
0% |
HELLENiQ ENERGY || Neutral | Target Price: €9.80 | CP: €9.075
4Q/FY25 results Review: results in line with our call and consensus, reported profitability burdened by heavy inventory losses; Declared a €0.40 final DPS
Facts: HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 4Q25 “adjusted” group EBITDA up by 34.1% y-o-y to €365m driven by the high utilizations rates, the strong refining environment and the consolidation of Enerwave in line with our estimate and consensus, while “adjusted” net income shaped at €189m from €117m in 4Q24, 4% above our call and consensus. Accounting for inventory and one-off losses of €182m in 4Q25 vs. inventory and one-off losses of €84m in 4Q24, HELLENiQ ENERGY reported IFRS EBITDA of €184m, down by 2.6% y-o-y and IFRS net profit of €44m compared to net losses of €48m in 4Q24. HE declared a €0.40 DPS (DY: 4.4%, ex-date 1st July), raising total distributions for the financial year to €0.60.
4Q/FY25 Group Key P&L Results
|
EUR m |
4Q24 |
4Q25 |
YoY |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
Consensus |
Actual vs. Consensus |
FY24 |
FY25 |
YoY |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
189 |
184 |
-2.6% |
274 |
-33% |
811 |
736 |
-9.2% |
||
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA |
273 |
366 |
34.1% |
361 |
1% |
361 |
1.4% |
1026 |
1132 |
10.3% |
|
refining |
232 |
330 |
42.2% |
329 |
0% |
795 |
891 |
12.1% |
||
|
marketing |
14 |
26 |
85.7% |
25 |
4% |
124 |
160 |
29.0% |
||
|
petchems |
2 |
-3 |
nm |
-2 |
67% |
54 |
18 |
-66.7% |
||
|
RES/other |
26 |
16 |
-38.5% |
14 |
19% |
53 |
71 |
34.0% |
||
|
IFRS Net Income |
48 |
44 |
-8.3% |
130 |
-66% |
60 |
173 |
188.3% |
||
|
“Adjusted” Net Income |
117 |
189 |
61.5% |
181 |
4% |
181 |
4.4% |
401 |
502 |
25.2% |
Source: Optima Bank, the Company
* Estimates are compiled based on the contribution from 14 brokerage firms
Domestic refining and trading division: HELLENiQ ENERGY’s realized blended margin (incl. propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems) in 4Q25 settled at $20.7/bbl from $17.2/bbl in 3Q25 and $11.5/bbl in 4Q24, well outperforming the $10.9/bbl benchmark margin. The refinery utilization rate in 4Q25 was higher by 2% y-o-y to the record high 116% vs. 114% a year ago, supported by the strong performance from all plants, since no maintenance took place during the quarter. Sales volume was consequently up by 3% y-o-y to 4.27m tons, driven by a 7.8% y-o-y increase in exports sales to 2.45 tons, followed by Domestic sales (1.27mtons). All in, 4Q25 “adjusted” EBITDA from the refining segment stood at €330m vs. €232m a year ago.
Marketing: Domestic demand in 4Q25 dropped marginally by 1% y-o-y driven by lower by 6% lower Heating Oil demand, Diesel demand was flat while Gasoline was down by 1%. Jet fuel demand strong, up by 6% y-o-y, while bunkering demand was flat y-o-y. Consequently, domestic EBITDA was higher y-o-y to €8m (from €-2m last year), while international marketing EBITDA was up by 19 y-o-y to €18m, also aided by the network expansion by 7 petrol stations.
Petrochemicals: Bottoming PP margins led to lower petchems contribution, with Adj. EBITDA turning negative to €3m in 4Q25.
Power & gas: HELLENiQ ENERGY consolidated Enerwave’s performance, which contributed €8m EBITDA, up from €2m losses a year ago.
RES: segmental profitability in 4Q25 shaped at €8m (from €11m in 4Q24) driven by increased curtailments, while installed capacity was unchanged y-o-y at 494MW.
FCF & Net debt: FCF in 2025 was lower by €105 y-o-y to €180m, due to increased WC and capex. the payments of the solidarity tax and increased capex due to the Elefsina turnaround. After paying €233m for dividends, €123m for interest expenses and the inclusion of €300m debt from ENERWAVE, group net debt (excluding leasing liabilities) rose by €350m y-o-y in 2025 to €2.14bn.
Conference call comments:
a) Recent investments to support profitability going forward, company is now up to another league compared to the past
b) Aspropyrgos is currently under maintenance, expected completion by the end of this quarter
c) Operation of the Thessaloniki-Skopje oil pipeline the management expects €5-€10m EBITDA contribution from 2026
d) Guides for payout ratio of 55% for 2026e, and higher from 2028e
e) Thessaloniki refinery to shut down for maintenance in the next few months
f) Expects lower production in 2026 compared to 2025, due to the shutdowns in the Aspropyrgos and the Thessaloniki refineries
g) Strong refining environment continues in 1Q26
h) Confident that the group will meet the medium RES capacity of 2GW
Comment: Strong finish to the year for HELLENiQ ENERGY, with no surprise from the earnings announcement. Looking into 2026, outlook for the refiners remains positive, however the extensive maintenance in the Aspropyrgos and the Thessaloniki plants are expected to weigh on performance. That said, in our view, HE is well positioned to generate >€1bn EBITDA adj. and ~€400m Net profits adj. in 2026, hence we reiterate our Neutral recommendation with a Target Price at €9.80/share.
OTE 4Q25 Results Review | Total Revenue and FCF beat our estimates, Payout 100%, DPS at €0.8777
Optima View: OTE delivered a solid set of results, outperforming our estimates in both Revenues and Free Cash Flow. Management raised the 2025 dividend by 22% y-o-y to €0.8777 per share, implying a c.5% dividend yield, while the share buyback program will increase by 16%. The 2026 Free Cash Flow guidance points to higher shareholder remuneration going forward, a notably positive development. Operational trends are also encouraging, with projected growth and initiatives across both mobile and fixed services.
4Q25 Results | Revenues reached €916m (+9% y-o-y) in 4Q, exceeding our estimates by 6%. Adjusted EBITDA AL came in at €351m (+2% y-o-y), broadly in line with expectations. Adjusted Net Profit stood at €158m, exactly matching our estimate.
Guidance 2026 | Management expects EBITDA growth of c.3% versus 2% in 2025, primarily driven by cost efficiencies. Free Cash Flow is projected at €750m, assuming the spectrum auction occurs in 2027. Adjusting for one-off tax gains, Free Cash Flow is expected in the €570–580m range. This reflects anticipated CAPEX of c.€600m, largely allocated to the expansion of the Fiber‑to‑the‑Home network and the deployment of the 5G Stand‑Alone architecture.
New shareholder remuneration policy | OTE will now base shareholder returns on actual, rather than projected, Free Cash Flow. Shareholder remuneration—through dividends and share buybacks—will range between 70% and 100% of net Free Cash Flow, with dividends accounting for at least 50% of total shareholder returns.
|
P&L (€ m) |
4Q25a |
4Q24a |
YoY |
Optima 4Q25e |
vs Optima |
|
Total Revenues |
916 |
843 |
9% |
861 |
6% |
|
Adj. EBITDA AL |
351 |
343 |
2% |
351 |
0% |
|
margin (%) |
38.3% |
40.7% |
-5.8% |
40.8% |
-6.0% |
|
Net profit (adjusted) |
158 |
155 |
2% |
158 |
0% |
|
P&L (€ m) |
FY25 |
FY24 |
YoY |
Optima 4Q25e |
vs Optima |
|
Total Revenues |
3,464 |
3,334 |
4% |
3,409 |
2% |
|
Adj. EBITDA AL |
1,374 |
1,346 |
2% |
1,373 |
0% |
|
margin (%) |
39.6% |
40.4% |
-1.8% |
40.3% |
-1.6% |
|
Net profit (adjusted) |
628 |
614 |
2% |
613 |
2% |
Ideal Holdings FY25 Results out
Ideal Holding released a solid set of FY25 Results, with all companies recording growth. In more detail, Group Comparable Revenues stood at €481.3m, up by 28.6%, driven by the Barba Stathis acquisition, EBITDA up by 25.6% y-o-y to €62.8m and Net Profit at €11.6m, vs. €8.5m a year ago. Turning to segmental performance:
· Attica recorded 5% Revenue growth to €244.2m, EBITDA at €30.4m (+11%) and net cash €40.7m
· BYTE Group recorded lower by 9% Revenue at €106m, however EBITDA was up by 13% to €15.2m driven by higher margins; Net cash stood at €24.3m
· Barba Stathis recorded a 7% revenue growth to €129.1m, EBITDA €14.5m, up by 5% and net debt at €34.3m
During yesterday’s conference call, the management reportedly stated that it monitors additional acquisition targets, including the food sector which offers synergies with Barba Stathis. Additionally, Ideal’s Management guided for a payout ratio of 40%-50%, and finally, didn’t rule out the possibility for the listing of Attica Department Store in ATHEX.
Calendar of Events
27/02/26 | Producer Price Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT), Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC (ELSTAT)
02/03/26 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI FEB
06/03/26 | DBRS – Greek sovereign rating review
Market
27/02/26 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)
4Q/FY25 Results Release
27/02/26 | Alpha Bank (08:00 GR time), National Bank (Bef-mkt), Premia Properties (Bef-mkt), Trastor REIC (Aft-mkt)
02/03/26 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
03/03/26 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
04/03/26 | Cenergy Holdings, LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
05/03/26 | CrediaBank (Aft-mkt), Viohalco
11/03/26 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)
17/03/26 | Trade Estates REIC (Bef-mkt)
18/03/26 | Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/26 | PPC (Aft-mkt), TITAN, Motodynamics (Aft-mkt)
23/03/26 | AUSTRIACARD (Aft-mkt)
24/03/26 | Athens International Airport (Aft-mkt)
30/03/26 | BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)
31/03/26 | METLEN, Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port Authority (Aft-mkt)
07/04/26 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)
20/04/26 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc, Sunrise Mezz Plc
21/04/26 | Qualco Group (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
02/03/26 | Real Consulting (EGM)
16/03/26 | CrediaBank (EGM), Y/KNOT Invest (EGM)
20/03/26 | Trastor REIC (AGM)
15/04/26 | Athens International Airport (AGM)
21/04/26 | Piraeus Bank (AGM)
22/04/26 | Autohellas (AGM)
28/04/26 | Eurobank (AGM), BriQ Properties (AGM)
30/04/26 | National Bank (AGM)
05/05/26 | Optima bank (AGM)
15/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/26 | METLEN (AGM)
12/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM)
26/06/26 | Alpha Bank (AGM)
23/03/26 | JUMBO (extraordinary cash distribution €0.50/share)
25/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (final €0.50/share)
23/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (€ 0.11/share)
Capital Markets Day
05/03/26 | Piraeus Bank
09/03/26 | CrediaBank
Investor Update 2026
03/03/26 | Bank of Cyprus






