Today’s Headlines
· Total building activity increased in April
· National Bank trades ex-dividend today
· Eurobank Financial Holdings acceptance period for Hellenic ends tomorrow
· Attica Bank and Pancreta Bank approved merger
· Titan Cement 2Q/1H24e Results Preview | Strong 1st Half, driven by US ops, points to another record year
· Hellenic Exchanges 2Q/1H24 Preview | Another strong quarter on higher trading activity
· GEKTERNA to submit the only one binding offer for the Waste management tender in central Macedonia (press)
· AVAX trades today ex-dividend
Market Comment
ATHEX recorded marginal gains on Friday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.37% at 1,469.25 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.36%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.11% Banks Index: -0.49%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 143.2m, up from Thursday’s EUR 95.7m. On a weekly basis, the General Index advanced by 0.33% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: -0.07%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.43%, Banks index: -2.13%). We anticipate the positive momentum to continue today, with National Bank of Greece and Hellenic Exchanges in the spotlight.
Macro Headlines
Total building activity increased in April
According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, increased by 40.1% y-o-y in April 2024. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 38.6% and by 29.9% y-o-y respectively. In the May 2023-April 2024 period, Greek building activity grew by 17.0% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 18.8% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 18.8% y-o-y in terms of volume.
Company Headlines
National Bank trades ex-dividend today
The stock is trading ex-dividend today (DPS: EUR 0.3642586663 per share, DY: 4.3%) and payment will commence on 02 August.
Eurobank Financial Holdings acceptance period for Hellenic ends tomorrow
The acceptance period of the takeover bid for the shareholders of Hellenic Bank (EUR 2.56/share) ends tomorrow. In other news, Eurobank is scheduled to report 2Q/1H24 results on Wednesday 31 July, post-market close.
Attica Bank and Pancreta Bank approved merger
Attica Bank announced that the Boards of Directors of Attica Bank and Pancreta Bank S.A. approved on Friday the Draft Merger Agreement for the merger by absorption of Pancreta Bank by Attica Bank. The merger will be effected by accounting consolidation of the assets and liabilities of the merging companies and, in particular, by the contribution of the assets and liabilities of Pancreta Bank to Attica Bank, as at 31 December 2023 and as formed until the completion of the merger. The proposed exchange ratio is 0.0292156343836978 new ordinary registered shares of Attica Bank for each one (1) ordinary registered share of Pancreta Bank, while the shareholders of Attica Bank will retain after the merger the same number of shares they held prior to the merger.
Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 31.60 | TP EUR 33.90
2Q/1H24e Results Preview | Strong 1st Half, driven by US ops, points to another record year
2Q24e results preview | Titan Cement International (TCI) is scheduled to release its 2Q24e results on Wednesday, 31 July, after the market close. We expect turnover of EUR 672.1m (+4.8% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 163.8m (+22.3% y-o-y) and net income at EUR 89.4m (assuming no one-offs). In 1H24e terms, we expect turnover of EUR 1,295.8m (+5.4% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 273.6m (+13.4% y-o-y, Consensus estimate at EUR 267.6m) and net income at EUR 141.2m (+27.3% y-o-y, Consensus at EUR 137.6m). The Company will hold a conference call also on 31 July (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Greece: We expect solid domestic demand and healthy export volumes to have continued in 2Q24e, after the strong growth witnessed in 2023, hence supporting segmental sales. In this context, we see turnover rising by c. 4.7% y-o-y to EUR 108.4m, while on the flip side, EBITDA is seen lower by 7.4% y-o-y to EUR 17.4m, on increased electricity costs (following the contract renewal from July 2023).
US: We expect that the cement price increases and resilient sales volume growth driven by market share gains (despite softer consumption in the country due to adverse weather and increased supply) to more than offset the weaker y-o-y USD vis-a-vis the EURO during the quarter. Specifically, we forecast turnover up by 4.1% y-o-y to EUR 388m in 2Q24e, while assuming a major margin expansion of 590bps, we assume an EBITDA of EUR 95.0m, representing a 37.3% y-o-y advance.
SE Europe: The significant lower y-o-y Energy costs (the largest opex factor for the region), suggest a better profitability in 2Q24e compared to an also good 2Q23. We estimate revenues to have increased by 6.9% y-o-y to EUR 119m, while due to the retreat of the energy-related opex, EBITDA is seen up by 16.7% y-o-y to EUR 49.0m in 2Q24e.
EMED: We expect the weak macro environment in Egypt to partially offset the stronger market dynamics in Turkey. Overall, turnover in 2Q24e is estimated up by 6.0% y-o-y at EUR 56.7m, while the weaker Egypt & Turkish Lira vs. the Euro, are expected to weigh on profitability, resulting in EBITDA of EUR 2.4m compared to EBITDA of EUR 3.9m in 2Q23.
Below the EBITDA line: Accounting for depreciation charges of EUR 38m, net financial expenses of EUR 14m and effective Group tax rate of 20%, we expect Net profits to shape at EUR 89.4m in 2Q24e compared to EUR 66.5m a year ago.
Management Guidance: Finally, we expect the management to provide us an updated guidance on the US listing, regional demand, the investment programme in Greece and the US and on the cost front during the Conference Call on 31st July (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Titan Cement 2Q/1H24e Results Preview
|
EUR m |
|
1H23 |
1H24e |
Y-o-Y change |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Consensus |
2Q23 |
2Q24e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
|
1,229.1 |
1,295.8 |
5.4% |
1,297.50 |
-0.1% |
641.1 |
672.1 |
4.8% |
|
Greece |
|
197.3 |
211.9 |
7.4% |
|
|
103.5 |
108.4 |
4.7% |
|
USA |
|
735.5 |
758.6 |
3.1% |
|
|
372.6 |
388 |
4.1% |
|
SEE |
|
195.1 |
214 |
9.7% |
|
|
111.3 |
119 |
6.9% |
|
E.MED |
|
101 |
111.3 |
10.2% |
|
|
53.5 |
56.7 |
6.0% |
|
EBITDA |
|
241.2 |
273.6 |
13.4% |
267.6 |
2.2% |
133.9 |
163.8 |
22.3% |
|
EBITDA margin |
|
19.6% |
21.1% |
149 |
|
|
20.9% |
24.4% |
348 |
|
Greece |
|
36.3 |
29.2 |
-19.6% |
|
|
18.8 |
17.4 |
-7.4% |
|
USA |
|
135.5 |
157.2 |
16.0% |
|
|
69.2 |
95 |
37.3% |
|
SEE |
|
60 |
81.9 |
36.5% |
|
|
42 |
49 |
16.7% |
|
E.MED |
|
9.3 |
5.3 |
-43.0% |
|
|
3.9 |
2.4 |
-38.5% |
|
Net income (adj.) |
|
110.9 |
141.2 |
27.3% |
137.6 |
2.6% |
66.5 |
89.4 |
34.5% |
Source: Optima Research, Titan Cement
Consensus is based on 11 Analysts and provided by the Company
Hellenic Exchanges || BUY | CP: EUR 4.7050 | TP: EUR 6.40
Another strong quarter on higher trading activity
Optima View | Hellenic Exchanges is set to report 2Q/1H2024 results on Monday 29 July, post market close and management will host a CC on Tuesday 30 July at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. We expect a strong quarter on the back of increased trading activity in the cash market and higher market capitalization versus 2Q23. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.40, as the stock is trading 15.8x EPS24e at a material 23% discount to its global peers and 9.2x EV/EBITDA24e also at a deep 25% discount.
|
(EUR m) |
2Q24e |
2Q23 |
YoY |
1H24e |
1H23 |
YoY |
|
Trading |
2.3 |
2.0 |
12% |
4.7 |
4.3 |
8% |
|
Post trading |
5.7 |
4.8 |
17% |
11.6 |
10.3 |
13% |
|
Listing |
1.4 |
1.4 |
2% |
3.0 |
2.7 |
14% |
|
Data services |
1.0 |
1.0 |
5% |
2.0 |
1.8 |
10% |
|
IT and digital services |
2.2 |
1.7 |
25% |
4.3 |
3.2 |
33% |
|
Ancillary services |
0.3 |
0.3 |
7% |
0.7 |
0.6 |
15% |
|
Turnover |
12.9 |
11.3 |
14% |
26.3 |
22.9 |
15% |
|
EBITDA |
5.6 |
4.3 |
30% |
11.9 |
9.5 |
25% |
|
mgn (%) |
43.2% |
38.0% |
– |
45.2% |
41.6% |
– |
|
Net profit |
4.3 |
3.2 |
32% |
8.6 |
6.6 |
31% |
source: Company, Optima bank research
2Q24 P&L | We estimate 2Q24 group revenues of 12.9m (+14% y-o-y) and trading revenues to account for 62% of top line. In more detail, we forecast trading fees to reach EUR 2.3m (+12% y-o-y) and post-trading revenues of EUR 5.7m (+17% y-o-y), as the average DVT in the cash market increased, driven by the positive outlook of the Greek economy and the positive sentiment in international markets. We forecast EBITDA to reach EUR 5.6m (+30% y-o-y) and EBITDA margin to widen to 43.2% vs. 38.0% in 2Q23. Below the EBITDA line, we have assumed: a) depreciation of EUR 1.0m, b) net financial income of EUR 0.1m and c) an effective tax rate of 21.1%. Hence, we assess net profit to jump by 32% y-o-y to EUR 4.3m and net margin to widen to 33.1% vs. 28.7% in 2Q23.
2Q24 Trading activity | The average daily turnover (ADT) soared by 29% y-o-y to EUR 140.0m in 2Q24, driven also by higher valuations (average M.Cap: EUR 98.2bn; +14% y-o-y). On the other side, the average daily volume in the derivatives market remained weak (-13% y-o-y). On the corporate front, Noval Property was the sole IPO in the quarter.
1H24 Preview | We project 1H24 revenues of EUR 26.3m (+15% y-o-y) driven by higher trading (+8% y-o-y), post-trading (+13% y-o-y), listing (+14% y-o-y) as well as IT and digital services revenues (+33% y-o-y). We also forecast EBITDA to reach EUR 11.9m (+25% y-o-y, mgn at 45.2% vs. 41.6% in 1H23) and net profit to shape at EUR 8.6m (+31% y-o-y, mgn at 32.7% vs. 28.7% in 1H23).
GEKTERNA to submit the only one binding offer for the Waste management tender in central Macedonia (press)
According to Newmoney.gr, GEKTERNA will be the only one investor to submit a binding offer for the EUR 202m tender process for the solid waste management tender process in central Macedonia.
AVAX trades today ex-dividend
AVAX trades today ex-dividend of EUR 0.03/share (DY: 2.1%)
Calendar of Events
Macros
30/07/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry JUN & Economic Sentiment Indicator JUL
31/07/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade MAY & Unemployment Rate JUN
2Q/1H24 Results Release
29/07/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
30/07/24 | Entersoft (trading update) (Aft-mkt), MIG (Aft-mkt)
31/07/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement
01/08/24 | Optima bank, National Bank of Greece (Bef-mkt)
02/08/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (08:00)
06/08/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)
07/08/24 | OTE (Bef-mkt), Coca-Cola HBC
09/08/24 | BriQ Properties, Intercontintal International
29/08/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings
02/09/24 | Sarantis
03/09/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)
04/09/24 | Ideal Holdings (Flash Note) (Bef-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
10/09/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
11/09/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
12/09/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda
17/09/24 | Noval Property
18/09/24 | Cenergy Holdings
19/09/24 | Viohalco, Attica Bank, Alpha Real Estate, Lavipharm
EGM / AGM
31/07/24 | Alpha Real Estate (AGM), Yalco (AGM)
02/08/24 | Athens Medical Center (EGM)
05/08/24 | Mediterra (EGM)
12/08/24 | Ble Kedros (AGM)
20/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co. (AGM)
04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM)
06/09/24 | Domiki Kritis (AGM)
10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
29/07/24 | National Bank of Greece (EUR 0.3642586663), Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34), AVAX (EUR 0.03)
01/08/24 | Creta Plastics (EUR 0.5001157168)
05/08/24 | Alpha Real Estate (EUR 0.26)
19/08/24 | Ble Kedros
22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)
27/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co.
29/08/24 | Real Consulting (EUR 0.04)
09/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (EUR 0.058)
12/09/24 | Evrofarma (EUR 0.05)
17/09/24 | Epsilon Net
Ex-Capital Return
26/08/24 | Biokarpet (EUR 0.02)
28/08/24 | GEK TERNA (EUR 0.25)
12/09/24 | Unibios (EUR 0.02)
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