Today’s Headlines
· CENERGY Holdings 2Q24e Preview | Another strong quarter, on track to meet the annual EBITDA target; focus on the US expansion
· MOH 2Q24e results preview | another strong quarter; attractive at current levels, despite the EUR 2/share extra tax
· Millenium International Mgmt extends its short position against Motor Oil’s stock (Hellenic Capital Markets Committee)
· Intralot renewed contracts in Netherlands and Ireland
· GEKTERNA trades ex-capital return tomorrow
Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index advanced by 0.35% at 1,437.68 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.33%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.17%, Banks Index: +0.16%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 63.3m, down from Friday’s EUR 72.9m. We expect ΑΤΗΕΧ to move in line with the European stock markets today, with Cenergy Holdings in focus.
Company Headlines
CENERGY Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 9.94 | TP EUR 12.60
2Q24e Preview: Another strong quarter, on track to meet the annual EBITDA target; focus on the US expansion
Cenergy Holdings is set to announce its 2Q/1H24e Results today amc, with a conference call scheduled for tomorrow, at 15.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). We see group sales up by 1.0% y-o-y at EUR 421m, EBITDA adj. at EUR 57.9m, up by 37.5% y-o-y and Net profits at EUR 25.3m, up by 208% y-o-y. In 1H24e terms, we expect sales of EUR 817m, up by 2.4%, EBITDA adj. at EUR 112.3m, also up by 30.4% and Net profits at EUR 48.9m vs. EUR 23.6m a year ago.
2Q/1H24e Group Key P&L Forecasts
|
EUR m |
2Q23 |
2Q24e |
y-o-y |
1H23 |
1H24e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
416.7 |
421 |
1.0% |
798.0 |
817 |
2.4% |
|
EBITDA adj. |
42.1 |
57.9 |
37.5% |
86.1 |
112.3 |
30.4% |
|
mgn |
10.1% |
13.8% |
3.6% |
10.8% |
13.7% |
296 |
|
Net Profit |
8.2 |
25.3 |
208% |
23.6 |
48.9 |
107.1% |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
MOH || BUY | CP: 21.66 | TP: EUR 36.70
2Q24e results preview | another strong quarter; attractive at current levels, despite the EUR 2/share extra tax
2Q24e results preview | MOH is scheduled to release its 2Q24e results tomorrow (28 August), after the close of the market, followed by a conference call the next day at 16:30 local time (14:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 264m (+70% y-o-y, consensus at EUR 275m) and “adjusted” net income of EUR 136m (Consensus at EUR 150m) from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 52m in 2Q23. As no revaluation result is expected from inventory and one-offs, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 264 (+91 y-o-y) and IFRS net profits of EUR 136m, vs. profits of EUR 39m a year ago. Finally, we see further deleveraging during the quarter driven by the strong operating profitability (note that the payment of the final DPS of EUR 1.40/share took place in July).
MOH Group 2Q/1H24e Key P&L Estimates
|
EUR m |
2Q23 |
2Q24e |
Y-o-Y change |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Consensus |
1H23 |
1H24e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
138 |
264 |
91% |
265 |
-0.4% |
535 |
618 |
16% |
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
155 |
264 |
70% |
275 |
-4.0% |
602 |
598 |
-1% |
|
Refining “Adjusted EBITDA” |
89 |
196 |
120% |
473 |
459 |
-3% |
||
|
Marketing & others Adjusted EBITDA” |
21 |
26 |
24% |
37 |
48 |
30% |
||
|
– Power & Gas EBITDA |
40 |
42 |
5% |
93 |
91 |
-2% |
||
|
IFRS Net Income |
39 |
136 |
248% |
140 |
-3.1% |
276 |
327 |
18% |
|
“Adjusted” Net Income* |
52 |
136 |
161% |
150 |
-9.5% |
329 |
311 |
-6% |
Source: Optima bank research, MOH. *Adjusted figures exclude inventory impact
Consensus includes median forecasts by 11 analysts following Motor Oil
Millenium International Mgmt extends its short position against Motor Oil’s stock (Hellenic Capital Markets Committee)
In an official filing to the Hellenic Capital Markets Committee, as of August 23rd Millennium International Mgmt LP extended its a net short position in Motor Oil’s stock to 0.759% of total from 0.5821% previously.
Intralot renewed contracts in Netherlands and Ireland
The company announced that it renewed for three years (June 2027) its contract with Nederlandse Loterij Organisatie B.V. and will continue to provide operations and management services for TOTO retail sportsbook. On top of that, it also renewed for three years (November 2027) its contract with Premier Lotteries Ireland and will continue to provide its advanced central gaming system for the operation of the National Lottery of Ireland through a retail network of more than 4.300 Intralot terminals, as well as serving mobile and web players. The news is positive, as Intralot maintains its strong track record in contract renewal (89% rate), albeit the financial contribution of the two contracts is small. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 1.55/share, implying a 30% upside potential.
GEKTERNA trades ex-capital return tomorrow
GEKTERNA will trade tomorrow ex-capital return of EUR 0.25/share (DY: 1.4%).
Calendar of Events
Macros
28/08/24 | Building Activity MAY
29/08/24 | Unemployment Rate JUL & Economic Sentiment Indicator AUG
30/08/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry JUL & Turnover Index in Retail Trade JUN
02/09/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI AUG
06/09/24 | GDP 2Q:24 (provisional data)
06/09/24 | DBRS – Greek sovereign credit review
13/09/24 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
30/08/24 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)
2Q/1H24 Results Release
27/08/24 | Cenergy Holdings (Aft-Mkt)
28/08/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-Mkt)
29/08/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings
02/09/24 | Sarantis (Aft-Mkt)
03/09/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)
04/09/24 | QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
10/09/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
11/09/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
12/09/24 | LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt), Alpha Trust Andromeda
17/09/24 | Noval Property
19/09/24 | Viohalco, Attica Bank, Alpha Real Estate, Lavipharm
20/09/24 | Premia Properties, Logismos
25/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt)
26/09/24 | EYDAP, INTERTECH
27/09/24 | Piraeus Port Authority, Alpha Trust Holdings, Alumil (Aft-mkt), Biokarpet, Ble Kedros, Sunrise Mezz Plc, Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC, Trastor REIC
30/09/24 | Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc, Space Hellas, Technical Olympic (Aft-mkt), Athens Medical Center, Interlife, Medicon, Pairis
EGM / AGM
03/09/24 | Attica Bank (EGM)
04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM), Moda Bagno (AGM), Revoil (EGM)
06/09/24 | Orilina Properties (AGM), Domiki Kritis (AGM)
10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM), MED (AGM)
13/09/24 | Bank of Cyprus (EGM)
16/09/24 | Coca-Cola HBC AG (EGM)
17/09/24 | MED (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
27/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage (EUR 0.0276)
29/08/24 | Real Consulting (EUR 0.04)
09/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (EUR 0.058)
12/09/24 | Evrofarma (EUR 0.05)
17/09/24 | Epsilon Net
Ex-Capital Return
28/08/24 | GEK TERNA (EUR 0.25)
12/09/24 | Unibios (EUR 0.02)
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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