Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday to a multi-year high, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.76% at 1,630.35 units (FTSE Large Cap: +2.12%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.92%, Banks Index: +3.31%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 374.6m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 302.8m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today, with CENERGY and Optima bank in the spotlight.
Today’s Headlines
· Opposition parties submit Censure motion against the government
· Greek 12-month T-bill raises EUR 600m at 2.15%
· Banking System Interest Rates | January 2025
· Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – February 2025
· Optima bank | Stellar growth rates, 2024 net profit at record EUR 140.2m (+36% y-o-y), NP to exceed EUR 160.0m in 2025
· CENERGY Holdings 4Q/FY24 Results: Strong performance, above our call, upgrades 2025 guidance, Backlog remains high, declares EUR 0.14 DPS;
· NBG has asked from the government the green light for Bank of Cyprus-Press
· Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for February
· Motor Oil proceeds with the supply of additional 20MW Alkaline electrocatalysts (press)
· METLEN signs three new EPC storage contracts
· ElvalHalcor FY24 Conference call highlights
· AVAX’ major shareholders plan to proceed with a private placement (press)
Political Headlines
Opposition parties submit Censure motion against the government
A censure motion against the government over the Tempe railway disaster was submitted on Wednesday by 85 opposition MPs from the opposition parties PASOK, SYRIZA, New Freedom and New Left, as well as nine independent MPs. The censure motion will be discussed today and tomorrow and is expected to be put to a vote tomorrow afternoon.
Macro Headlines
Greek 12-month T-bill raises EUR 600m at 2.15%
The Greek State raised EUR 600m yesterday from the issuance of 52-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 955m (1.87x coverage ratio vs. 1.91x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.15% (vs. 2.27% in the previous auction).
Sector Headlines
Banking System Interest Rates | January 2025
|
New Production |
Nov’24 |
Dec’24 |
Jan’25 |
MoM |
|
Mortgage loans (fixed up to 1 yr) |
3.88% |
3.59% |
3.90% |
0.31% |
|
Consumer loans |
15.02% |
15.04% |
14.88% |
-0.16% |
|
Business (fixed maturity floating) |
4.81% |
4.68% |
4.54% |
-0.14% |
|
(a) Average loans |
5.27% |
5.20% |
5.10% |
-0.10% |
|
HH deposits (Overnight ) |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
|
HH term deposits (up to 1 year) |
1.74% |
1.65% |
1.64% |
-0.01% |
|
Corporate term deposits (up to 1 year) |
2.56% |
2.56% |
2.32% |
-0.24% |
|
(b) Average deposits |
0.48% |
0.45% |
0.45% |
0.00% |
|
Interest Rate Spread [(a) – (b)] |
4.79% |
4.75% |
4.65% |
-0.10% |
|
Outstanding amounts (Back Book) |
||||
|
(a) Loans |
5.75% |
5.50% |
5.34% |
-0.16% |
|
(b) Deposits |
0.50% |
0.49% |
0.49% |
0.00% |
|
Interest Rate Spread [(a) – (b)] |
5.25% |
5.01% |
4.85% |
-0.16% |
source: Bank of Greece
Facts: Bank of Greece announced that the average interest rate on new production of loans squeezed by 10bps m-o-m to 5.10% in January 2025, whilst the average interest rate on new production of deposits remained flat m-o-m to 0.45%. The drop in the average interest rate on new loan production by 10bps m-o-m is attributed to lower interest rates on consumer (-16bps m-o-m) and on business loans (-14bps m-o-m). Thus, the interest rate spread for new production squeezed by 10bps m-o-m to 4.65%. On outstanding amounts, the interest rate spread squeezed by 16bps m-o-m to 4.85%.
Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – February 2025
Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share remained at 48.3% in February 2025 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 135.13/MWh, up by EUR 19.0/MWh m-o-m and by EUR 80.5/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 5,166/GWh, up by 13.7% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 16.85% (17.90% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 11.40%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 5.95% and MOH’s NRG with 4.58%.
As a result, PPC’s retail market share in February 2025 was slightly down by 0.2% m-o-m at 51.7%, above the EU-mandated 50% mark. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, Natural Gas ranks first with 50% of total (vs. 46% in January), RES follows with 34% (vs. 35% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 3% (3%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 5% (5%) and 2% (2%) respectively and finally, Imports 6% (10%).
Company Headlines
Optima bank || Restricted | CP: EUR 14.42 | TP: Restricted
Stellar growth rates, 2024 net profit at record EUR 140.2m (+36% y-o-y), NP to exceed EUR 160.0m in 2025
2024 results: Net profit hit a new record of EUR 140.2m in 2024 (+36% y-o-y) and best-in class RoTE at 25.3%, the highest in the Greek banking system and the second highest in Europe. Net interest income reached EUR 189.9m (+34% y-o-y) and fee income came in at EUR 41.3m (+29% y-o-y). NIM narrowed to 4.04% vs. 4.39% in 2023, the highest in the Greek banking system. Core income came in at EUR 231.2m (+33% y-o-y) and non-core revenues reached EUR 23.5m (+26% y-o-y). Hence, total revenues stood at EUR 254.7m (+32% y-o-y). On the cost side, OpEx landed at EUR 57.9m (+2% y-o-y) and LLPs at EUR 20.6m (+107% y-o-y).
|
(EUR m) |
2024 |
2023 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
189.9 |
142.2 |
34% |
|
Fee income |
41.3 |
32.1 |
29% |
|
Core income |
231.2 |
174.3 |
33% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
23.5 |
18.6 |
26% |
|
Total revenues |
254.7 |
193.0 |
32% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(57.9) |
(56.9) |
2% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
196.8 |
136.0 |
45% |
|
Loan impairments |
(20.6) |
(9.9) |
107% |
|
Net Profit |
140.2 |
103.0 |
36% |
source: Optima Bank
4Q24 results: Net profit came in at EUR 32.0m (-18% q-o-q, +4% y-o-y) in 4Q24. Net interest income reached EUR 48.8m (-2% q-o-q, +13% y-o-y) and fee income came in at EUR 12.1m (+19% q-o-q, +26% y-o-y). Core income came in at EUR 60.8m (+2% q-o-q, +15% y-o-y) and non-core revenues reached EUR 5.9m (-14% q-o-q, +15% y-o-y). Hence, total revenues stood at EUR 66.7m (+0.2% q-o-q, +15% y-o-y) and OpEx at EUR 16.7m (+15% q-o-q, -9% y-o-y). Pre-provision income landed at EUR 50.0m (-4% q-o-q, +27% y-o-y) in 4Q24 and LLPs stood at EUR 9.8m from EUR 3.6m in 3Q24.
|
(EUR m) |
4Q24 |
3Q24 |
QoQ |
4Q23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
48.8 |
49.6 |
-2% |
43.3 |
13% |
|
Fee income |
12.1 |
10.1 |
19% |
9.6 |
26% |
|
Core income |
60.8 |
59.8 |
2% |
52.8 |
15% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
5.9 |
6.8 |
-14% |
5.1 |
15% |
|
Total revenues |
66.7 |
66.5 |
0% |
57.9 |
15% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(16.7) |
(14.5) |
15% |
(18.5) |
-9% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
50.0 |
52.0 |
-4% |
39.5 |
27% |
|
Loan impairments |
(9.8) |
(3.6) |
175% |
(1.2) |
723% |
|
Net Profit |
32.0 |
39.2 |
-18% |
30.9 |
4% |
source: Optima Bank
Balance sheet: Gross Loans reached EUR ca3.66bn (+11% q-o-q, +48% y-o-y), deposits at EUR 4.6bn (+12% q-o-q, +45% y-o-y) and assets at EUR 5.54bn (+43% y-o-y). Tangible equity increased by EUR 31.2m q-o-q to EUR 608.9m.
Asset quality: Group NPEs reached EUR 31.1m from EUR 30.2m in 3Q24 and the NPE ratio squeezed to 0.85% from 0.92% in 3Q24.
Capital: FL CET1 and CAD ratios came in at 14.25% from 15.58% in 3Q24. RWAs increased to EUR 3.99bn in 2024 from EUR 3.51bn in 3Q24.
2025 Guidance: Management guided net profit to exceed EUR 160.0m (>14% y-o-y) and RoTE to surpass 22.0%. Management also targets net loans to reach EUR 4.6bn in 2025 (+1.0bn y-o-y) and deposits to accelerate to EUR 5.9bn (+1.25bn y-o-y).
Conference call: A conference call will follow today at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Dial-in numbers- GR: +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 7000, UK & INTL:+44 (0) 800 368 1063,+44 (0) 203 059 5872, US: +1 516 447 5632.
CENERGY Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 9.40 | TP EUR 12.60
4Q/FY24 Results: Strong performance, above our call, upgrades 2025 guidance, Backlog remains high, declares EUR 0.14 DPS;
Facts: Cenergy Holdings released a strong set of 4Q24 results, with group turnover up by 17.1% y-o-y to EUR 536.2m on higher volumes, driven by the cables segment, adjusted EBITDA advanced by 13.9% y-o-y to EUR 78.4m (beating our EUR 67.8m call), while net income came at EUR 39.1m, also above our EUR 39.1m call, from EUR 25.8m a year ago.
In FY24 terms, Cenergy recorded sales of EUR 1,796.4m (up by 10.4% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 272.1m (beating the latest company guidance of EUR 245-265m) and Net Profits of EUR 139.4m (91.1% up y-o-y, also aided by 16% lower financial expenses).
The order backlog remained high at EUR 3.44bn (with a EUR 87.5%/12.5% divisional split for cables/pipes) from EUR 3.15bn in 2023 and EUR 3.48bn in 9M24. FCF was positive by EUR 48m, driven by the strong operating profitability and the Working Capital release of EUR 82m, which more than offset the increased capex of EUR 259m.
Accounting also for the EUR 187m net proceeds from the SCI, net debt dropped by EUR 225m y-o-y to EUR 152m at 2024-end (at a 0.6x Net Debt/EBITDA). Following the strong 2024 results, CENERGY declared a EUR 0.14 DPS (DY: 1.5%, ex-date: 24 June). Finally, the management provided strong EBITDA guidance for 2025e at EUR 300-330m, supported by the recent capacity additions which are operational this year.
Optima view: Another strong set of results for Cenergy, on better margins and above our call, as the execution of the huge, accumulated backlog for the higher-margin energy projects supports profitability.
Backlog continues to expand, especially where matters the most (energy projects offer 20%-25% EBITDA margin, well above Group average of 14.6% in 4Q24), which coupled with the doubling of the offshore cables capacity from 2025 onwards, allows the Company to set an ambitious medium term EBITDA target of EUR 300m-330m.
That said, we remain positive for the stock, and we reiterate our Buy recommendation with a Target Price at EUR 12.60/share. Finally, we expect the management to provide an update guidance for 2025e during today’s conference call (15.00 local time, Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
4Q/FY24 Group Key P&L Results
|
EUR m |
4Q23 |
4Q24 |
Y-o-Y change |
Optima |
Acrual vs. Optima |
FY23 |
FY24 |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
458.1 |
536.2 |
17.1% |
468.0 |
14.6% |
1,627.7 |
1,796.4 |
10.4% |
|
EBITDA adj. |
68.8 |
78.4 |
13.9% |
67.8 |
15.6% |
213.8 |
272.1 |
27.3% |
|
mgn |
15.0% |
14.6% |
-40 |
14.5% |
13 |
13.1% |
15.1% |
201 |
|
Net Profit |
25.8 |
39.1 |
51.7% |
35.3 |
10.8% |
73.0 |
139.4 |
91.1% |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
Cables: The strong growth of the cables sales (+17% y-o-y in revenue) driven by projects, drove segmental EBITDA adj. for the year up by 19% to EUR 179m. Additionally, several contract awards further increased segmental Backlog to EUR 3.01bn as of 31/12/2024, from EUR 2.5bn at 2023-end. It is noted that the EUR 217m capital expenditures of the cables segment mainly concerned a) the capacity expansion of the off-shores cables plant (EUR 121m), b) selective investments in the on shore cables plant in Thiva (EUR 65m), c) for the Bucharest plant (EUR 2m) and d) expenses of EUR 28m for the acquisition of the land plot in the US for the future cables plant.
Pipes: Execution of projects with significantly higher margin compared to the project mix executed in FY24, a fact that led average margins for the year to a record-high of 17.8%. In this context, segmental turnover dropped by 1.4% y-o-y to EUR 572.9m, while on the contrary, adj. rose by 46.2% to EUR 93.8m. Segmental Backlog shaped at EUR 430m, down from 650m by 2023-end, despite new order intake during the year.
Outlook: The cables segment maintains its strong medium term financial outlook as its order backlog keeps growing and capacity expansions progress as planned. Increased demand for Renewable Energy Solutions in Europe, growing electricity demand around the globe and enhancements in power grids in developed countries, shape a positive outlook for the segment for the rest of 2024 and the medium term. With regards to Pipes, CPW expects the gas fuel demand to keep on growing in the short-term, together with the other two “green energy pillars” (hydrogen and Carbon Capture & Storage), feeding into higher demand for large diameter steel pipes.
Nestoras Katsios [email protected] +30 210 81 73 295
NBG has asked from the government the green light for Bank of Cyprus-Press
Press reports (newmoney) indicate that the management of National Bank of Greece has asked from the government to give the green light for acquiring a stake in Bank of Cyprus.
Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for February
Athens International Airport (AIA) released its passenger traffic data for February 2025, according to which total passenger traffic up by 8.9% y-o-y, driven by international traffic (up by 11.9% YoY), while domestic traffic was also up +2.3% y-o-y despite operating 2 days less vs. last February (calendar effect and the strike effect). For the 2M25 total passenger traffic was up by +11.7% y-o-y, reaching 3.56m passengers with international passengers up by 15.3% y-o-y and domestic passengers up by 3.6% y-o-y.
Motor Oil proceeds with the supply of additional 20MW Alkaline electrocatalysts (press)
According to Mononews.gr, Motor Oil agreed with the Chinese Peric for the supply of additional Alkaline Electroctalysts of 20MW for EUR 11.5m, for its 50MW Hydrogen facility which is constructed in the refinery. As a reminder, the European Commission approved recently a EUR 111.7m grant under the RRF programme to support Motor Oil’s green Hydrogen project of 50 MW, which will produce renewable hydrogen.
METLEN signs three new EPC storage contracts
METLEN signed and executed in the beginning of 2025 3 individual EPC agreements that encompass the implementation of a total 190,5MWp of Solar energy capacity and more than 2,500MWh of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity. All projects are set to be delivered no later than 1Q26. Beyond these strategic partnerships, METLEN is also driving its own investment with the Mesembria project, a 1,607MWh battery storage system set for completion by 4Q25, further reinforcing its commitment to energy innovation and sustainability in Chile.
ElvalHalcor FY24 Conference call highlights
During yesterday’s conference call, ElvalHalcor’s management stated that a) doesn’t expect any significant impact from the US tariffs on exports, since the US is a deficit market, b) monitors the developments in the EU defense industry and has the capacity to capitalize on opportunities from the RearmEU programme of EUR 800bn , currently the defense sector accounts for 1% of Group sales c) is optimistic for 2025 in terms of pricing following the recent removal of the tax rebate on Chinese exports of Copper and Aluminium, d) metal price could negatively affect WC needs in 2025, company efforts focus on disciplined WC this year.
AVAX’ major shareholders plan to proceed with a private placement (press)
According to Radar.gr, AVAX’ major shareholders are planning to procced with a private placement of a 10% stake of the company.
Calendar of Events
Macros
07/03/25 | 4Q:24 GDP (provisional data) & 2024 GDP (estimates) (ELSTAT)
07/03/25 | DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review
10/03/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI FEB, Industrial Production Index JAN & Trade Balance JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
4Q/FY24 Results Release
06/03/25 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), Viohalco
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
02/04/25 | Trade Estates
08/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
06/03/25 | EVROPI Holdings (EGM)
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
23/04/25 | Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (EUR 0.55)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
στο Google News και μάθετε πρώτοι όλες τις ειδήσεις
