Greek Market Watch: Current account, Industrial Turnover, Bank of Cyprus, NBG, PPC, GEKTERNA, Terna Energy, Profile

Market Comment

ATHEX headed south on Friday, outperforming however the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.22% at 1,425.19 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.24%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.67%, Banks Index: -0.51%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 209.3m, up from Thursday’s EUR 125.5m. On a weekly basis, the General Index had gains of 0.42% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +0.42%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.16%, Banks index: +0.29%). We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European markets, with Bank of Cyprus in focus today. Ahead this week: HFSF decision on NBG placement, Terna Energy & GEKTERNA 1H24 results on Thursday.  

Today’s Headlines

·         Current account surplus narrows in July (BoG)

·         Industrial Turnover index up by 11.7% in July (ELSTAT)

·         Bank of Cyprus shares to commence trading today

·         HFSF to convene today and tomorrow-Press

·         PPC denies potential spin-off and listing of PPC Renewables

·         GEKTERNA and Terna Energy 1H24 Results release date

·         Profile 1H24 results out today 

Macro Headlines 

Current account surplus narrows in July (BoG)

According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in July 2024 recorded a surplus of 246m, vs. a surplus of 847m in the same period a year ago, due to a deterioration in the goods, services and the primary income balances. Additionally, in the 7M24 period, the current account deficit widened by EUR 1,294m and stood at EUR 8,573m. Finally, travel receipts in July 2024 stood at EUR 4,031m, down by 4.2% y-o-y, while in the Jan-July 2024 period, travel receipts rose by 5.6% y-o-y to EUR 10,953m.

Comment: the 4.2% lower travel receipts during July, despite the increased by 4.1% international tourist flows during the month, imply lower spending per traveler of c.8% during the month; July historically ranks the 2^nd most important month of the year in revenue terms. 

Industrial Turnover index up by 11.7% in July (ELSTAT)

ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 11.7% y-o-y in July 2024 compared to a decrease of 10.3% y-o-y in July 2023 while increased by 12.3% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the August 2023- July 2024 period increased by 1.1% y-o-y compared to a 6.8% y-o-y rise in the respective August 2022-July 2023 period. 

Company Headlines 

Bank of Cyprus shares to commence trading today

The 443,457,297 common shares of Bank of Cyprus are set to trade on the main market of the regulated market of ATHEX today. The starting price is EUR 4.78. Bank of Cyprus has a market cap of EUR 2.12bn and according to Factset consensus estimates, the stock is trading 0.87x P/TBV24e (23% discount to EU banks) and 0.81x P/TBV25e (26% discount to EU banks) and is expected to generate RoaTBV of 20.8% in 2024e and 15.9% in 2025e. Finally, consensus estimates that the bank will distribute a dividend of EUR 0.54/share, implying a gross dividend yield of 11% in 2024e. Finally, BoC announced that it will launch its share buyback program on ATHEX as of today. 

HFSF to convene today and tomorrow-Press

Reportedly (euro2day), the BoD of HFSF will convene today and tomorrow to finalize the framework of the disposal of National Bank of Greece shares. The same reports suggest that HFSF will dispose a 10.0% stake or 91.471.515 common shares. 

PPC denies potential spin-off and listing of PPC Renewables

Following a communication with the Company, PPC’s management strongly denies any possibility regarding the spin-off of the renewables business and the listing in ATHEX.  

GEKTERNA and Terna Energy 1H24 Results release date

GEKTERNA and Terna Energy are set to release their 1H24 Results on 26 September after the market close. GEKTERNA will hold a conference the next day.

 Profile 1H24 results out today

The company announced that it will report 1H24 results before the opening of ATHEX. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

27/09/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator SEP & Building Activity JUN

30/09/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade JUL & Producer Price Index in Industry AUG

01/10/24 | Unemployment Rate AUG & S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI SEP (08:00 UTC)

10/10/24 | CPI & Harmonized CPI SEP & Industrial Production Index AUG

2Q/1H24 Results Release

23/09/24 | Profile Systems (Bef-mkt)

25/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt)

26/09/24 | GEK TERNA (Aft -mkt), TERNA Energy (Aft -mkt), EYDAP, Loulis Food

27/09/24 | Piraeus Port Authority, Revoil (Aft-mkt), Alpha Real Estate, Biokarpet, Ble Kedros, Sunrise Mezz Plc, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC, Orilina Properties, Alpha Trust Holdings, Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Trastor REIC, Daios Plastics

30/09/24 | Alumil (Aft-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc, Space Hellas, Technical Olympic (Aft-mkt), INTERTECH, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Athens Medical Center, Interlife, Medicon, Pairis, Mevaco

EGM / AGM

25/09/24 | Attica Bank (EGM)

26/09/24 | Jumbo (EGM)

02/10/24 | Cenergy Holdings (EGM)

Ex-Dividend

11/10/24 | Domaine Costa Lazaridi (EUR 0.03)

21/10/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.17), Moda Bagno (EUR 0.38)

23/10/24 | ELVE (EUR 0.40)

04/11/24 | OPAP (interim dividend EUR 0.60)

Listing of shares on the Main Market of the Athens Stock Exchange

23/09/24 | Bank of Cyprus

ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)

02/10/24 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (09:30 Athens time) 

Research Department Equity Research Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr