Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday for a third session in a row, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by 0.35% at 1,417.59 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.42%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.23%, Banks Index: -1.25%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 98.6m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 134.8m. We expect window dressing trading in ATHEX today, as it is the last session for 1Q24.
Today’s Headlines
· DBRS raises its growth forecasts for Greece (press)
· 6-month T-bill yield slightly down
· Hellenic Exchanges 4Q/FY23 results review | 2023 results higher than consensus and in line with Optima, DPS beat
· National Bank of Greece tender offer in respect of EUR 400m Tier 2 notes
· Mytilineos approved the renewal of the buyback program
· Real Consulting denied rumors of merger with CPI
Macro Headlines
DBRS raises its growth forecasts for Greece (press)
DBRS upgrades its growth forecast for Greece to 1.5% for 2024 (from 1.3% previously, expecting the GDP growth to step up to 2.3% in 2025 (from 2.0% previously).
6-month T-bill yield slightly down
The Greek State raised EUR 812.5m yesterday from the issuance of 26–week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 625m, while total bids reached EUR 1,046m (1.67x coverage ratio vs. 1.65x in February) for an interest rate of 3.75% (vs. 3.83% in the previous auction).
Company Headlines
Hellenic Exchanges || CP: EUR 5.45 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 6.40
4Q/FY23 results review | 2023 results higher than consensus and in line with Optima, DPS beat
View | Hellenic Exchanges delivered a robust set of results that beat consensus and came in line with Optima estimate. On top of that, EBITDA margin widened significantly y-o-y and FCF generation skyrocketed. Management proposed the distribution of a EUR 0.24 per share (+60% y-o-y), beating our estimate of EUR 0.22 and consensus estimate of EUR 0.20 and implying a gross dividend yield of 4.4%. The company will host a conference call today at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. Dial-in numbers-GR: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 211 180 2000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632, Other: +44 (0) 203 059 5872. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.40/share with an upside potential of 17%.
P&L | Revenues came in at EUR 47.1m (+25% y-o-y) in 2023, 3% higher than consensus estimate of 45.7m and in line with Optima estimate of EUR 46.7m. Trading fees stood at EUR 8.6m (+46% y-o-y) and post-trading at EUR 20.2m (+35% y-o-y), accounting for 61% of group revenues. Listing fees also rose by 15% y-o-y to EUR 5.7m. EBITDA reached EUR 19.0m (+52% y-o-y), slightly higher than consensus estimate of EUR 18.8m and Optima estimate of EUR 18.6m. EBITDA margin widened to 40.3% vs. 33.0% in 2022. Net profit came in at EUR 13.0m (+58% y-o-y), 4.8% higher than consensus estimate of EUR 12.4m and in line with Optima estimate of EUR 13.1m. Management will propose to the AGM of shareholders the distribution of a EUR 0.24 dividend per share (+60% y-o-y), 20% higher than consensus estimate of EUR 0.20 and 10% higher than Optima estimate of EUR 0.22. Moreover, 4Q23 revenues came in at EUR 12.7m (+48% y-o-y), higher than Optima estimate of EUR 12.3m, EBITDA at EUR 4.7m (+269% y-o-y), higher than Optima estimate of EUR 4.2m and net profit at EUR 3.4m (+53% y-o-y), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 3.5m.
FCF | soared to EUR 13.8m (+200% y-o-y), as OpCF surged by 111% y-o-y to EUR 18.2m and CapEx stood at EUR ca4.5m (+10% y-o-y).
Net Cash position | increased by EUR 2.5m y-o-y to EUR 62.8m and shaped at EUR 1.04 per share.
|
(EUR m) |
2023 |
2022 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
vs Cons |
|
Revenues |
47.1 |
37.8 |
25% |
0.9% |
3.1% |
|
EBITDA |
19.0 |
12.5 |
52% |
2.5% |
1.1% |
|
mgn |
40.3% |
33.0% |
– |
– |
– |
|
Net profit |
13.0 |
8.2 |
58% |
-0.9% |
4.8% |
|
mgn |
27.6% |
21.7% |
– |
– |
– |
|
DPS |
0.24 |
0.16 |
53% |
10.4% |
20.0% |
source: Company, Optima Bank estimates, Factset
National Bank of Greece tender offer in respect of EUR 400m Tier 2 notes
NBG announced that it will accept for purchase all validly tendered notes and that the acceptance amount is equal to EUR ca320.1m, at a purchase price of 101.4% of the nominal amount of notes accepted for purchase. The settlement date for the Offer is expected to be 28 March 2024. The Offeror’s EUR 500.0m Subordinated Fixed Rate Resettable Tier 2 Notes due 2035 are expected to be issued on 28 March 2024. On the settlement date, subject to satisfaction of the new issue condition, NBG will pay the purchase price consideration and the accrued interest payment to noteholders who have validly tendered their notes for purchase pursuant to the Offer.
Mytilineos approved the renewal of the buyback program
The company announced that the EGM held yesterday approved the renewal of the buyback program for an additional twenty-four months and up to 10% of the company’s share capital with a price range from EUR 0.97 to EUR 50 per share.
Real Consulting denied rumors of merger with CPI
The company announced that denies press reports about possible merger with the company CPI.
Calendar of Events
Macros
28/03/24 | Building Activity DEC
29/03/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry FEB & Turnover Index in Retail Trade JAN
FY23 Results
28/03/24 | Trastor REIC, BriQ Properties
29/03/24 | Piraeus Port Authority
02/04/24 | DIMAND (Aft-mkt)
03/04/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
12/04/24 | Sunrise Mezz PLC, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC
17/04/24 | Jumbo (Aft-mkt), Lamda Development
23/04/24 | Alpha Trust Holding
25/04/24 | EYDAP
30/04/24 | Biokarpet
EGM / AGM
08/04/24 | Bank of Greece (AGM)
10/04/24 | Petropoulos (AGM)
17/04/24 | Papoutsanis (AGM)
18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)
19/04/24 | BriQ Properties (AGM)
23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)
25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)
30/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
15/04/24 | Petropoulos
19/04/24 | Papoutsanis
22/04/24 | Autohellas (EUR 0.70)
29/04/24 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.60)
02/05/24 | Sarantis (EUR 0.224381)
08/05/24 | BriQ Properties
20/05/24 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.75)
Ex-Capital Return
02/04/24 | Intercontinental International REIC (EUR 1.98)
25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)
|
Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr |
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