We expect ATHEX to try to move higher today after yesterday’s sell off.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek Draft Budget for 2025e sees GDP growth of 2.3% for 2025e (press)
· CENERGY Holdings 3Q24 results conference call highlights
· METLEN and INTRAKAT awarded irrigation system contracts
· INTRAKAT approves a EUR 200m SCI
· MOH 3Q24e results preview | solid quarter, despite the sharp correction of the refining margins and the fire in the CDU
· OPAP 3Q24e preview: Α positive quarter after a long time, in trajectory to meet management guidance
· Trade Estates 9M24 results out
· Trade Estates announced interim dividend of EUR 0.047/share
· Jumbo Share buyback
Macro Headlines
Greek Draft Budget for 2025e sees GDP growth of 2.3% for 2025e (press)
According to Capital.gr, the draft budget will be submitted today to the Greek Parliament, which will assume GDP growth of 2.2% and 2.3% for 2024e and 2025e respectively, primary surplus of 2.5% and 2.4% and deficit of the general government at 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. As per the same press report, the draft budget envisages increased government spending by 2.6% for 2024 and 3.6% for 205e and tax cuts, including the lower by 1% employer and employee contributions and the special tax of the freelancers and also support measures of EUR 243m to 1.9million vulnerable citizens.
Company Headlines
CENERGY Holdings 3Q24 results conference call highlights
During the conference call for the management highlighted the following: a) commits to considerably increase dividend distributions from 2024 onwards b) confident that if the US impose tariffs on Pipes could redirect sales elsewhere c) sees further margin expansion in the cables segment despite expansion of capacity by competitors, driven by increased demand in the next years d) sees significant debt reduction by 2024e (from EUR c.494m in 9M24), close to 2023 levels (EUR 378m) and to remain at those level in 2025e, excluding the EUR 190m net proceeds from the recent SCI e) Petzetakis-Eleonas new capacity operational by 2024-end fand fully operational by mid-2025e f) $ 58m tax credit already granted from the US authorities for the US investment is secured, cannot be erased as it would be considered as a credit default event
METLEN and INTRAKAT awarded irrigation system contracts
According to press reports, the METLEN-INTRAKAT-Mesogeios JV was declared as provisional contractor of a EUR 96.5m PPP contract for the Minagiotiko Dam in Pylos, and the METLEN/Mesogeios JV was awarded a EUR 107.2m PPP contract for the construction and 25 years maintenance and operation of an Integrated irrigation System in Larisa/Karditsa.
INTRAKAT approves a EUR 200m SCI
During yesterday’s EGM, INTRAKAT approved a EUR 200m share capital increase and the change of the corporate name of the company to AKTOR Group. The new shares will be offered with a proposed price of EUR 4.60/share and with preemptive rights in favor of the existing shareholders at a ratio of 0,270853462305055 New Shares for each old share of the Company.
MOH || Under Review | CP: 19.20 | TP: U/R
3Q24e results preview | solid quarter, despite the sharp correction of the refining margins and the fire in the CDU
MOH is scheduled to release its 3Q24e results today, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call tomorrow at 17:30 local time (15:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 196m (-63.6% y-o-y), consensus at EUR 204m, and “adjusted” net income of EUR 80m, lower by 12.7% compared to consensus estimate of EUR 92m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 375m in 3Q23. Accounting for EUR 58m expected losses from inventory and one-offs, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 138 (-77.8% y-o-y) and IFRS net losses of EUR 165m (including the EUR 200m impact from the solidarity tax), vs. profits of EUR 441m a year ago. It is reminded that Motor Oil has already declared an interim DPS of EUR 0.30 (DY: 1.5%, ex-date: 23 December). Finally, we see no significant change in the net debt position of the Group during the quarter.
MOH Group 3Q/9M24e Key P&L Estimates
|
EUR m |
3Q23 |
3Q24e |
Y-o-Y change |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Consensus |
9M23 |
9M24e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
623 |
138 |
-77.8% |
264 |
-47.7% |
152 |
-9.2% |
1158 |
778 |
-32.8% |
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
538 |
196 |
-63.6% |
264 |
-25.8% |
204 |
-3.9% |
1140 |
821 |
-28.0% |
|
Refining “Adjusted EBITDA” |
463 |
115 |
-75.2% |
196 |
-41.3% |
|
|
936 |
609 |
-34.9% |
|
Marketing & others Adjusted EBITDA” |
54 |
53 |
-1.9% |
26 |
103.8% |
|
|
91 |
105 |
15.4% |
|
– Power & Gas EBITDA |
25 |
27 |
8.0% |
42 |
-35.7% |
|
|
118 |
101 |
-14.4% |
|
IFRS Net Income |
441 |
-165 |
-137.4% |
136 |
-221.5% |
-149 |
-10.7% |
717 |
194 |
-72.9% |
|
“Adjusted” Net Income* |
375 |
80 |
-78.6% |
136 |
-40.8% |
92 |
-12.7% |
704 |
427 |
-39.3% |
Source: Optima bank research, MOH *Adjusted figures exclude inventory impact
3Q24e Reported Income includes EUR 200m extra tax
Consensus includes median forecasts by 12 analysts following Motor Oil
OPAP || CP: EUR 14.85 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 19.30
3Q24e preview: Α positive quarter after a long time, in trajectory to meet management guidance
Solid 3Q24e performance | OPAP will release its 3Q24e results today, AMC, while it will hold a cc the following day (16:00 Athens time). We expect a very strong quarter in terms of top line, with double digit revenue growth driven by strong Betting (supported by EURO 2024 event and new leagues), the outperformance of lottery and the continues outperformance of Online Casino. On the flip side Instant & Passives category continued losing momentum due to strong online competition. As management guided, OpEx started to ease from the reduction in advertising spend as Eurojackpot rollout campaign was tempered. The quarter was marked by a) easy comps 3Q23, which was characterized by unusually high payouts, b) the strong betting (new leagues added) and lottery activity (the 2nd highest Joker Jackpot ever), and c) the continued growth of Online casino with players increasing their engagement levels and betting activity.
3Q24e P&L forecasts | In this context, we forecast revenues (GGR) of EUR 540.3m (vs. EUR 481.0m in 3Q23 +12.3% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 188.9m (vs. EUR 142.4m in 3Q23 32.7% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 109.5m vs. EUR 78.6m in 3Q23 (39.2% y-o-y). On the OpEx side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees and direct costs) are seen shaping at EUR 313.7m, accounting for 58.2% of total GGR, while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated to decrease at EUR 106.3m (-7.2% y-o-y); accounting for 19.7% of total GGR vs. 23.8% in 3Q23. Consequently, group’s EBITDA margin is estimated to increase both q-o-q and y-o-y at 35.0% up from 29.6% in 3Q23 (+540bps). We note that we have assumed an income of EUR 59.3m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, as well as other operating income/costs (net) from non-gaming operations of EUR 9.7m (almost unchanged vs. last year) in the quarter.
Table 1 | P&L forecasts
|
EUR m |
3Q23 |
3Q24 |
y-o-y |
9M23 |
9M24 |
y-o-y |
|
Betting (Retail+Stoiximan+Online OPAP) |
144.0 |
160.1 |
11.2% |
464.6 |
510.2 |
1.9% |
|
Lottery (Retail + Online Loterry) |
166.0 |
192.9 |
16.2% |
532.4 |
566.0 |
5.6% |
|
Instant & Passives |
25.6 |
22.2 |
-13.1% |
85.7 |
74.7 |
-3.5% |
|
VLTs |
82.9 |
83.2 |
0.3% |
248.3 |
249.6 |
2.3% |
|
Online casino (Online OPAP + Stoiximan) |
62.5 |
81.9 |
31.0% |
175.5 |
222.2 |
19.0% |
|
Revenues |
481.0 |
540.3 |
12.3% |
1506.5 |
1622.8 |
7.7% |
|
GGR tax & levies |
-152.7 |
-171.8 |
12.5% |
-470.0 |
-514.2 |
9.4% |
|
Net gaming revenue |
328.3 |
368.5 |
12.3% |
1,036.5 |
1,108.6 |
7.0% |
|
Agents fees |
-92.9 |
-98.4 |
6.0% |
-293.3 |
-300.7 |
2.5% |
|
Other operating income |
24.0 |
24.6 |
2.9% |
76.6 |
75.6 |
1.6% |
|
Other income related to the new lottery/betting concession |
57.2 |
59.4 |
3.9% |
172.6 |
175.7 |
1.8% |
|
Other operating costs |
-14.6 |
-14.8 |
1.8% |
-46.4 |
-45.0 |
4.0% |
|
Direct costs |
-45.0 |
-44.1 |
-2.0% |
-127.1 |
-131.4 |
4.2% |
|
Opex |
-114.6 |
-106.3 |
-7.2% |
-298.3 |
-320.2 |
19.5% |
|
EBITDA |
142.4 |
188.9 |
32.7% |
520.5 |
562.6 |
8.1% |
|
% of GGR |
29.6% |
35.0% |
540bps |
34.6% |
34.7% |
10bps |
|
Depreciation |
-35.0 |
-36.0 |
2.9% |
-98.2 |
-102.4 |
4.3% |
|
EBIT |
107.4 |
152.9 |
42.4% |
422.4 |
460.2 |
9.0% |
|
Net financial expense |
-3.7 |
-3.7 |
0.0% |
-8.8 |
4.4 |
-149.5% |
|
EBT |
103.7 |
149.2 |
43.9% |
413.6 |
464.6 |
12.3% |
|
Income tax |
-21.1 |
-35.8 |
69.4% |
-97.1 |
-114.1 |
17.6% |
|
EAT |
82.5 |
113.4 |
37.4% |
316.5 |
350.4 |
10.7% |
|
Minorities |
-3.9 |
-3.9 |
n.m |
-8.1 |
-9.3 |
14.1% |
|
EAT ex-minorities |
78.6 |
109.5 |
39.2% |
308.4 |
341.1 |
10.6% |
Source: Optima bank research
Trade Estates 9M24 results out
Trade Estates released its 9M24 results, with rental income up by 65.6% y-o-y, at EUR 30.2m, adj. EBITDA (i.e. excluding revaluation gains) at EUR 20.8m recording an increase of 60.6% y-o-y and Net Profits (ex. Revaluation gains) up by 55.0% y-o-y to EUR 10.7m. Funds from Operations reached EUR 10.7m, up by 65.1% y-o-y and finally, NAV was up by 1.4% y-t-d at EUR 303.1m or 2.52/share, at a 36.5% discount compared to yesterday’s close.
Trade Estates announced interim dividend of EUR 0.047/share
The company announced that will distribute an interim dividend of EUR 0.047706 per share with the cut of date set for Monday 16 December. (DY: 2.98%).
Jumbo Share buyback
The company announced that it purchased on 18 November, 28,000 own shares at an average price of EUR 24.372. The company now holds 376,857 shares or 0.28% of the total share capital.
Calendar of Events
Macros
20/11/24 | Current Account Balance SEP (BoG) & Turnover Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
22/11/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review
28/11/24 | Building Activity AUG (ELSTAT) & Economic Sentiment Indicator NOV
Market
25/11/24 | MSCI Index rebalancing (Aft-mkt)
3Q/9M24 Results Release
20/11/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
21/11/24 | Ideal Holdings (Bef-mkt)
25/11/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
26/11/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), KRI-KRI (Aft-mkt)
12/12/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
22/11/24 | ILYDA (EGM)
09/12/24 | Alumil (EGM)
10/12/24 | Cairo Mezz Plc (EGM)
12/12/24 | Attica Holdings (EGM)
24/12/24 | MED (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)
16/12/24 | Trade Estates (interim dividend EUR 0.047706)
23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)
20/01/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (interim dividend EUR 0.20)
Warrants – Attica Bank
08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period
04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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