Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.30% at 1,407.74 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.36%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.32%, Banks Index: -0.45%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 94.6m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 87.1m. We expect another range bound session on low volumes for ATHEX today, ahead of the announcements of the HFSF for Piraeus Bank.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek ESI drops in February
· Total building activity decreased in November
· ATHEX on watch list in April?-Press
· MSCI Greece Small Cap Rebalancing today
· HELLENiQ ENERGY | 4Q/FY23e Results Preview
· Ideal Holdings 2023 results in line with guidance
· Intralot Chairman and CEO purchased shares
· Noval Property’s portfolio value up on 31 December 2023
Macro Headlines
Greek ESI drops in February
Greece’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) dropped to 104.8 in February 2024 from 107.2 in January, remaining well above the EU average ESI (down to 95.4 in February from 95.8 in January).
Total building activity decreased in November
According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, decreased by 1.2% y-o-y in November 2023. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 8.9% and by 24.2% y-o-y respectively. In the December 2022- November 2023 period, Greek building activity grew by 8.6% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 16.5% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 22.7% y-o-y in terms of volume.
Market Headlines
ATHEX on watch list in April?-Press
Reportedly (mononews), one of the global providers of equity indices (MSCI, Dow Jones, FTSE, S&P) might include Athens Stock Exchange on a watch list in April in order to upgrade its status to a developed market in the next 20 months.
MSCI Greece Small Cap Rebalancing today
MSCI announced on 13 February that Intralot and Intrakat will be added to MSCI Greece Small Cap Index today as of the close.
Company Headlines
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | Target Price EUR: 10.70 | CP: EUR 8.10
4Q/FY23e Results Preview
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report today, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call at 18.00 local time (Conference call details — Greece: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: + 1 516 447 5632). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 258m (-45% YoY on tough comparables) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 133m from EUR 261m in 4Q22. Turning to divisional performance, we expect HE, also benefited by the uninterrupted operation of the refineries, to have capitalized on the healthy refining margins through the quarter, driving the segmental EBITDA adj. at EUR 218m (vs. EUR 440m a year ago), while marketing contribution is expected weak at EUR 19m, driven by the mild weather conditions and the cap on margins in Greece. With regards to Petchems, we expect the weak environment during the quarter to weigh on segmental profitability, with the EBITDA contribution seen at EUR 12m, vs. EUR 26m last year. Finally, we estimate RES EBITDA of EUR 20m from the 356MW installed capacity to more than offset the EUR 10m loss towards the E&P activity. It is noted that our estimates stand at the upper end of the consensus estimates.
4Q/FY23e P&L forecasts
EUR m |
4Q22 |
4Q23e |
y-o-y |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Consensus |
FY22 |
FY23e |
y-o-y |
IFRS EBITDA |
149 |
184 |
23% |
|
|
1,717 |
1089 |
-37% |
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
465 |
258 |
-45% |
229 |
+12.7% |
1,601 |
1226 |
-23% |
refining |
440 |
218 |
-50% |
|
|
1384 |
1025 |
-26% |
marketing |
14 |
19 |
36% |
|
|
138 |
117 |
-15% |
petchems |
16 |
12 |
-28% |
|
|
74 |
47 |
-37% |
RES/other |
-6 |
10 |
-259% |
|
|
5 |
37 |
631% |
IFRS Net Income |
-232 |
61 |
nm |
|
|
890 |
523 |
-41% |
“Adjusted” Net Income** |
261 |
133 |
-49% |
93 |
+39.8% |
1,006 |
629 |
-37% |
Source: Optima bank, The Company *excluding inventory effect and one-offs
Consensus estimates are provided by the Company and are compiled based on the contribution from 10 brokerage firms
Ideal Holdings 2023 results in line with guidance
Ideal Holdings delivered a strong set of results that came in line with management’s guidance. Group revenues came in at EUR 384.3m (+120% y-o-y), in line with FY target of EUR 385,0m, EBITDA came in at EUR 53.9m (+101% y-o-y), in line with FY target of more than EUR 50.0m and EBT came in at EUR 38.0m (+76% y-o-y), broadly in line with the FY guidance for more than EUR 40.0m. Net profit came in at EUR 26.7m (+73% y-o-y). Finally, net debt reached EUR 73.3m and Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.4x. Management stated on the CC that expects financial performance to improve further in 2024 and will give the new guidance post 1Q as well as reiterated its intention to proceed to new acquisitions in the IT sector with a target IRR of more than 15%.
Intralot Chairman and CEO purchased shares
The company announced that the Chairman of the BoD and CEO acquired on 28 February, 400,000 common shares at an average price of EUR 1.1322 and a total value of EUR 452,894.71.
Noval Property’s portfolio value up on 31 December 2023
Noval Property announced that on 31st December 2023, the fair value of its portfolio, comprising sixty-one (61) investment properties and participations, amounted to EUR 571m up by EUR 55 m (11% increase) compared to the fair value of 30th June 2023.
Calendar of Events
Macros
29/02/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC & Producer Price Index (PPI) in Industry JAN
01/03/24 | Unemployment Rate JAN & S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI FEB
FY23 Results
29/02/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Entersoft (Bef-mkt)
05/03/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
06/03/24 | Optima bank (09:30), Cenergy Holdings
07/03/24 | Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings, Viohalco, Autohellas
11/03/24 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)
12/03/24 | National Bank (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)
13/03/24 | Titan Cement, OPAP (Aft-mkt)
21/03/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt)
27/03/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
04/03/24 | Piraeus Port Authority (EGM)
06/03/24 | Fourlis (EGM)
17/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)
18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)
23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)
25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
19/03/24 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.60/share)
29/04/24 | OPAP
Ex-Capital Return
26/03/24 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 2.20)
Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr |

