Greek Market Watch: ESI, Building activity, ATHEX, MSCI indices, HELLENiQ ENERGY, Ideal Holdings, Intralot, Noval Property

Market Comment

ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.30% at 1,407.74 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.36%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.32%, Banks Index: -0.45%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 94.6m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 87.1m. We expect another range bound session on low volumes for ATHEX today, ahead of the announcements of the HFSF for Piraeus Bank.

 

Today’s Headlines

·         Greek ESI drops in February

·         Total building activity decreased in November

·         ATHEX on watch list in April?-Press

·         MSCI Greece Small Cap Rebalancing today

·         HELLENiQ ENERGY | 4Q/FY23e Results Preview

·         Ideal Holdings 2023 results in line with guidance

·         Intralot Chairman and CEO purchased shares

·         Noval Property’s portfolio value up on 31 December 2023

 

Macro Headlines

 

Greek ESI drops in February

Greece’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) dropped to 104.8 in February 2024 from 107.2 in January, remaining well above the EU average ESI (down to 95.4 in February from 95.8 in January).

 

Total building activity decreased in November

According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, decreased by 1.2% y-o-y in November 2023. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 8.9% and by 24.2% y-o-y respectively. In the December 2022- November 2023 period, Greek building activity grew by 8.6% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 16.5% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 22.7% y-o-y in terms of volume.

 

Market Headlines

 

ATHEX on watch list in April?-Press

Reportedly (mononews), one of the global providers of equity indices (MSCI, Dow Jones, FTSE, S&P) might include Athens Stock Exchange on a watch list in April in order to upgrade its status to a developed market in the next 20 months.

 

MSCI Greece Small Cap Rebalancing today

MSCI announced on 13 February that Intralot and Intrakat will be added to MSCI Greece Small Cap Index today as of the close.

 

Company Headlines

 

HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | Target Price EUR: 10.70 | CP: EUR 8.10

4Q/FY23e Results Preview

HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report today, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call at 18.00 local time (Conference call details — Greece: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: + 1 516 447 5632). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 258m (-45% YoY on tough comparables) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 133m from EUR 261m in 4Q22. Turning to divisional performance, we expect HE, also benefited by the uninterrupted operation of the refineries, to have capitalized on the healthy refining margins through the quarter, driving the segmental EBITDA adj. at EUR 218m (vs. EUR 440m a year ago), while marketing contribution is expected weak at EUR 19m, driven by the mild weather conditions and the cap on margins in Greece. With regards to Petchems, we expect the weak environment during the quarter to weigh on segmental profitability, with the EBITDA contribution seen at EUR 12m, vs. EUR 26m last year. Finally, we estimate RES EBITDA of EUR 20m from the 356MW installed capacity to more than offset the EUR 10m loss towards the E&P activity. It is noted that our estimates stand at the upper end of the consensus estimates.

4Q/FY23e P&L forecasts

EUR m

4Q22

4Q23e

y-o-y

Consensus

Optima vs. Consensus

FY22

FY23e

y-o-y

IFRS EBITDA

149

184

23%

 

 

1,717

1089

-37%

“Adjusted” EBITDA*

465

258

-45%

229

+12.7%

1,601

1226

-23%

refining

440

218

-50%

 

 

1384

1025

-26%

marketing

14

19

36%

 

 

138

117

-15%

petchems

16

12

-28%

 

 

74

47

-37%

RES/other

-6

10

-259%

 

 

5

37

631%

IFRS Net Income

-232

61

nm

 

 

890

523

-41%

“Adjusted” Net Income**

261

133

-49%

93

+39.8%

1,006

629

-37%

Source: Optima bank, The Company             *excluding inventory effect and one-offs

Consensus estimates are provided by the Company and are compiled based on the contribution from 10 brokerage firms

 

Ideal Holdings 2023 results in line with guidance

Ideal Holdings delivered a strong set of results that came in line with management’s guidance. Group revenues came in at EUR 384.3m (+120% y-o-y), in line with FY target of EUR 385,0m, EBITDA came in at EUR 53.9m (+101% y-o-y), in line with FY target of more than EUR 50.0m and EBT came in at EUR 38.0m (+76% y-o-y), broadly in line with the FY guidance for more than EUR 40.0m. Net profit came in at EUR 26.7m (+73% y-o-y). Finally, net debt reached EUR 73.3m and Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.4x. Management stated on the CC that expects financial performance to improve further in 2024 and will give the new guidance post 1Q as well as reiterated its intention to proceed to new acquisitions in the IT sector with a target IRR of more than 15%.

 

Intralot Chairman and CEO purchased shares

The company announced that the Chairman of the BoD and CEO acquired on 28 February, 400,000 common shares at an average price of EUR 1.1322 and a total value of EUR 452,894.71.

 

Noval Property’s portfolio value up on 31 December 2023

Noval Property announced that on 31st December 2023, the fair value of its portfolio, comprising sixty-one (61) investment properties and participations, amounted to EUR 571m up by EUR 55 m (11% increase) compared to the fair value of 30th June 2023.

 

 

Calendar of Events

Macros

29/02/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC & Producer Price Index (PPI) in Industry JAN

01/03/24 | Unemployment Rate JAN & S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI FEB

FY23 Results

29/02/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Entersoft (Bef-mkt)

05/03/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)

06/03/24 | Optima bank (09:30), Cenergy Holdings

07/03/24 | Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings, Viohalco, Autohellas

11/03/24 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)

12/03/24 | National Bank (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)

13/03/24 | Titan Cement, OPAP (Aft-mkt)

21/03/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt)

27/03/24 | Hellenic Exchanges

09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)

EGM / AGM

04/03/24 | Piraeus Port Authority (EGM)

06/03/24 | Fourlis (EGM)

17/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)

18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)

23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)

25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

19/03/24 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.60/share)

29/04/24 | OPAP

Ex-Capital Return

26/03/24 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 2.20) 

Research Department
Equity Research

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr

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