Greek Market Watch: ESI index, Building activity, Banking Loans/Deposits, Prepayment of GLF loans, Tax on Electricity Suppliers, Masdar deal, CENERGY certification, JUMBO bb

 We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels.    

Today’s Headlines

·      Greek ESI down in November

·      Total building activity increased in August

·      Banking System Loans | October 2024

·      Banking System Deposits | October 2024

·      ESM and EFSF waive Greece’s prepayment of GLF loans (expected)

·      Government to impose a EUR 100m special tax on electricity generators (press)

·      Masdar completes the acquisition of 70% of Terna Energy

·      CENERGY’s gets a new certification for 66kV cables

·      Jumbo Share buyback 

HEADLINES

Macro Headlines

Greek ESI down in November

Greece’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) eased to 106.1 in November 2024 from 106.9 in October, remaining well above the EU average ESI (rose to 96.5 in November from 96.3 in October). 

Total building activity increased in August

According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, increased by 10.5% y-o-y in August 2024. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 15.0% and fell by 12.0% y-o-y respectively. In the September 2023- August 2024 period, Greek building activity grew by 13.8% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 17.2% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 11.5% y-o-y in terms of volume. 

Sector Headlines

Banking System Loans | October 2024

(EURm)	Aug ’24	Sep ’24	Oct ’24
Total credit	193,328	194,775	197,386
General Government	74,678	74,951	75,735
Private sector	118,650	119,823	121,651
Corporate	77,724	79,409	81,379
Sole Proprietors	4,468	4,390	4,331
Household	36,458	36,025	35,942
Monthly net flow	-371	2,048	2,775
% y-o-y	3.8%	3.2%	4.5%
Private sector Monthly net flow	102	1,943	1,882
% y-o-y	6.9%	6.6%	9.1%

source: BoG 

Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at EUR 197.4bn in October 2024 (+4.5% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 2,775m), on the back of positive monthly net flow by both the general government and the private sector. Loans to the private sector rose by 9.1% y-o-y to EUR ca121.7bn (positive monthly net flow of EUR 1,882m). Net credit expansion stood at EUR 5,471m y-t-d. 

Comment: Net credit expansion was positive for a 2^nd month in a row thanks to corporate loans that reached EUR 81.4bn (+14.8% y-o-y, positive monthly flow by EUR 2,020m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at EUR 4.33bn (+0.4% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 61m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at EUR 35.9bn (-0.7% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 78m). Housing loans came in at EUR 27.0bn (-2.8% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 73m). Consumer credit reached EUR ca8.74bn (+6.4% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 5m). Corporate loans accounted for 67% of private sector loans, household loans for 30% and other loans for 3% respectively.  

Banking System Deposits | October 2024

(EURm)	Aug ’24	Sep ’24	Oct ’24
System Deposits	201,939	204,241	202,549
General Government	6,584	6,647	7,037
Private sector	195,355	197,594	195,512
Corporate	48,597	50,534	48,453
Household	146,758	147,060	147,059
Private Sector Monthly net flow	1,401	2,324	-2,258
Private Sector % y-o-y	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
Private Sector % y-t-d	0.3%	1.4%	0.4%

source: BoG 

Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at EUR 202.5bn (+2.7% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 1,869m) in October 2024. General Government deposits reached EUR 7.04bn (-12.1% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 389m) and private sector deposits amounted to EUR 195.5bn (+3.3% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 2,258m). Corporate deposits came in at EUR ca48.5bn (+6.3% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 2,122m), whilst household deposits reached EUR ca147.1bn (+2.3% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 136m). Household deposits accounted for 75% of private sector deposits and corporate for the remaining 25%.

Comment: The monthly drop in private sector deposits (EUR -2,258m) in October is attributed primarily to corporate deposits (EUR -2,122m). Time deposits recorded a marginal monthly net flow of EUR 52m and accounted for 18.4% of system depos vs. 18.2% in September. Liquidity remained ample, with the LDR at 62.2% vs. 60.6% in September and the commercial surplus narrowed to EUR 73.9bn from 77.8bn in September. 

ESM and EFSF waive Greece’s prepayment of GLF loans (expected)

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) agreed today to waive the mandatory repayment obligation by Greece of EUR 7.9bn ESM/EFSF loans, following a relevant request from the Greek Government. In other related news, ESM and EFSF gave their consent to the merger of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) with the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations (HCAP). The Greek government’s merger plan also includes the merger of Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) with HCAP, which does not require consent by the ESM or EFSF. 

Government to impose a EUR 100m special tax on electricity generators (press)

According to Kathimerini, the government is set to impose a special tax on the electricity generators of EUR 100m, so as to subsidize the retail and business tariffs, aiming to keep them <EUR 150/MWh. 

Company Headlines

Masdar completes the acquisition of 70% of Terna Energy

Masdar completed the acquisition of 70% of the outstanding shares of Terna Energy from GEK TERNA and other major shareholders at EUR 20/share. Additionally, Masdar will seek regulatory approvals from the Hellenic Capital Markets Commission for the launch of a mandatory tender offer to acquire the remaining 30% of outstanding shares of Terna Energy at the same price (according to press reports, the mandatory tender offer will be launched next week). 

CENERGY’s gets a new certification for 66kV cables

Hellenic Cables, the cables segment of Cenergy Holdings, announced the successful certification of its dynamic power cable (66kV), which will support the electrical connection of offshore wind turbines in areas where the traditional fixed bottom offshore wind turbines cannot be installed. Moreover, the dynamic cables will pave the way for electrification of offshore platforms using power from floating renewable energy sources, thereby significantly reducing carbon footprints. 

Jumbo Share buyback

The company announced that it purchased on 27 November, 34,917 own shares at an average price of EUR 24.8136. The company now holds 554,580 shares or 0.41% of the total share capital. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

29/11/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade SEP (ELSTAT), Producer Price Index in Industry OCT (ELSTAT) & Unemployment Rate OCT (ELSTAT)

02/12/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI NOV (09:00 UTC)

06/12/24 | 3Q:24 GDP (provisional data) (ELSTAT)

06/12/24 | Scope Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review

3Q/9M24 Results Release

29/11/24 | GEK TERNA (Bef-mkt), TERNA Energy (Bef-mkt)

12/12/24 | Attica Bank

EGM / AGM

09/12/24 | Alumil (EGM)

10/12/24 | Cairo Mezz Plc (EGM)

12/12/24 | Ble Kedros (EGM), Attica Holdings (EGM)

13/12/24 | Real Consulting (EGM)

16/12/24 | AS Company (EGM)

24/12/24 | MED (EGM)

Ex-Dividend

02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)

16/12/24 | Trade Estates (interim dividend EUR 0.047706)

23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)

20/01/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (interim dividend EUR 0.20)

23/01/25 | Thrace Plastics (interim dividend EUR 0.0685848289)

Warrants – Attica Bank

08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period

04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares

Initiation of trading of new shares

02/12/24 | EVROPI Holdings (ex. Kloukinas-Lappas) (70.36m shares from merger with Intracom Properties)