Greek Market Watch: ESI, T-bills auction, Coca Cola HBC, NBG, INTRAKAT, OTE, AIA, MOH, OPAP, LAMDA Development, Fourlis, Attiki Odos, TERNA Energy

Today’s Headlines

·         Greek ESI down in October

·         Greece sells 3-month T-bills at 2.63%

·         Coca Cola HBC 3Q24 top line beat estimates, mgt upgraded FY guidance 

·         National Bank of Greece to announce new VES-Press 

·         INTRAKAT Investor Day Highlights

·         ΟΤΕ in talks with Digi Romania and Vodafone Romania for the sale of TKRM

·         Airport of Athens 9M24 Results out

·         Motor Oil declares a EUR 0.30 interim DPS

·         OPAP to distribute EUR 0,6028 gross dividend per share.

·         LAMDA Development and the HRADF sign a 40-year sub-concession agreement for the Mega Yacht Marina in Corfu

·         LAMDA Development expects cash proceeds of EUR 1.0bn in 2025e (press)

·         Fourlis opened new IKEA store in Patras

·         ATTIKI ODOS to distribute an interim dividend of EUR 40m (press)

·         Polish competition authority doesn’t object the TERNA ENERGY sale to MASDAR 

Macro Headlines 

Greek ESI down in October

Greece’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) eased to 107.0 in October 2024 from 110.2 in September, remaining well above the EU average ESI (dropped to 96.0 in October from 96.7 in September). 

Greece sells 3-month T-bills at 2.63%

The Greek State raised EUR 600m yesterday from the issuance of 13–week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 1,061m (2.12x coverage ratio vs. 1.89x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.63% (vs. 2.84% in the previous auction). 

Company Headlines 

Coca Cola HBC 3Q24 top line beat estimates, mgt upgraded FY guidance 

Coca Cola HBC announced that group revenues came in at EUR ca3.05bn (+9% y-o-y), 3% above consensus estimate of EUR 2.95bn. Group volume came in at  817.3m unit cases (+4% y-o-y), 1% above consensus estimate of 805.9m unit cases and net revenue per unit case reached EUR 3.73 (+5% y-o-y), 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 3.66. Management upgraded FY guidance and expects organic revenue growth of 11% to 13% from 8% to 12% previously and organic EBIT growth in the range of 10% to 12% from 7% to 12% previously. 

National Bank of Greece to announce new VES-Press 

Press reports (euro2day) indicate that NBG will announce a new VES in the next couple of weeks, targeting the exit of 440-450 employees and with a maximum cost up to EUR 200k per employee. Recall that NBG had 6,800 employees in 1H2024, the cost of the previous VES in 2023 amounted to EUR 20.0m as well as management hinted on 2Q24 results conference call that it scrutinizes the possibility of a new VES. The stock is trading 0.78x P/TBV25e, at a material 27% discount to EU banks, despite its higher RoaTBV25e (15.1% vs 12.9% of EU peers). National Bank of Greece is one of our top picks in the sector, with TP of EUR 12.00/share.   

INTRAKAT Investor Day Highlights

INTRAKAT (or AKTOR under the new corporate name) presented its new strategy and its medium-term financial targets. In a nutshell,

• The group targets to expand its activities by entering the real estate sector (along with the facility management acquisition) with the acquisition of PRODEA’s EUR 600m property portfolio, accelerating its RES pipeline and also monitoring certain M&A opportunities in existing concessions, so as to improve visibility and differentiate its revenue streams.

• Construction: expects total sales of EUR 15bn by 2030e, with 30% of which already secured from existing backlog. Romania will be key driver for future growth, as it has many infrastructure projects to be tendered and limited competition from European constructors. Management guides for segmental sales of EUR 1.6bn and EUR 2.91bn and EBITDA at EUR 109m and 180m by 2025e and 2030e respectively.

• Renewables: Monitors potential RES acquisition targets with secured connection terms and/or secured tariffs, expects to announce a 250MW acquisition soon. Expects to operate RES capacity of ~500MW in 2025e and 1.3GW in 2030e (64% Solar, 28% wind, 8% storage), which in turn will generate EBITDA of EUR 22m and 130m in 2025e and 2030e respectively.

• Real Estate: High quality asset with 7% gross yield, 99% occupancy, 9.3 years average remaining life, which is expected to contribute EUR 55m EBITDA by 2030e, from EUR 40m currently.

• Facility management: synergies with real estate activity, expects additional EBITDA of EUR 12m and EUR 15m in 2025e and 2030e respectively.

• All in, AKTOR Group (INTRAKAT) sees group sales at EUR 1,156m this year, EUR 1,422m in 2025e and EUR 3.24bn in 2030e. Regarding profitability, the management guides for EBITDA of EUR 70m, EUR 184m and EUR 430m and Net profits of EUR 10m, EUR 40m and EUR 165m in 2024e, 2025e and 2030e respectively. Additionally, the management said that total capex & acquisitions over the 2024-2030 period will reach EUR 2bn, EUR 1.5bn f which will be non-recourse debt, EUR 260m sub-debt, EUR 244m equity and EUR 21m from operating cash flows. Finally, the company said that it will launch a dividend payment from 2025 onwards.  

ΟΤΕ in talks with Digi Romania and Vodafone Romania for the sale of TKRM

OTE company announced that it has entered into negotiations for the sale of Telekom Romania Mobile with Digi Romania and Vodafone Romania, after the withdrawal of Mr. Adrian Tomsa. The parties have signed a Memorandum of Understanding and are in the process of filing for approval with the Romanian competent authorities. The MoU provides that certain assets of TKRM would be acquired by Digi, while remaining assets and the company would be acquired by Vodafone Romania. Completion of the transaction is subject to the signing of a Share Purchase Agreement and transaction documentation, as well as obtaining regulatory approvals. The news is positive.    

Airport of Athens 9M24 Results out

The Airport of Athens released  a strong set of 9M24 Results, with total revenues up by 9.8% y-o-y to EUR 509m, driven by air activities which were up by 8.5% to EUR 387.7m, representing 76.2% of total, supported by the 13.3% y-o-y passenger traffic increase, while non air activities revenues shaped at EUR 121.3m, up by 14.2% y-o-y. Turning to profitability, EBITDA adj. was up by 16.9% y-o-y to EUR 339.9m, and net profits were up by 3.4% to EUR 195.1m. The management informs that in the context of the Airport Expansion program, on 23/10/2024 the Company entered into an EUR 806m secured bond loan agreement with Alpha Bank, maturing at the end of 2042. 

Motor Oil declares a EUR 0.30 interim DPS

Motor Oil declared a EUR 0.30 interim DPS (DY: 1.5%, ex-date: 23 December). 

OPAP to distribute EUR 0,6028 gross dividend per share

Following the 03.09.24 announcement, regarding the interim dividend distribution, OPAP announced that the gross amount per share now amounts to EUR 0,602853 (vs. EUR 0,60/sh), excluding the 11,337,297 own shares held by the company. (DY: 3.88%, ex-date: 4 November). 

LAMDA Development and the HRADF sign a 40-year sub-concession agreement for the Mega Yacht Marina in Corfu

LAMDA Development’s subsidiary, “LAMDA MARINAS INVESTMENTS” and the Hellenic Asset Development Fund signed a 40-year sub-concession regarding the right for the former to construct, operate, manage, maintain and exploit the Mega Yacht Marina in Corfu. LAMDA MARINAS INVESTMENTS will invest more than EUR 50m for the construction and the development of a state-of-the-art marina with 410 berths for yachts up to 140 meters long as well as a land zone of 39,400 sqm for retail uses, while the total consideration payable to the HRADF over the 40-year period will exceed EUR 89m. 

LAMDA Development expects cash proceeds of EUR 1.0bn in 2025e (press)

According to Euro2day.gr, the management of Lamda Development said yesterday that total proceeds from asset sales in the Hellinikon are expected to reach EUR 1.0bn in 2025e. 

Fourlis opened new IKEA store in Patras

The company announced the opening of a new store in the Trade Estate retail park in Patra on 30 October. The total area of the store in 7,200 sqm and it’s the sixth largest IKEA store in Greece. Fourlis group now operates a total of 9 IKEA stores in Greece and including Cyprus and Bulgaria, the total network consists of 14 stores, 7 Pick up and order points and 3 e-shops. Management reiterated that two additional IKEA stores are planned to open one in Heraklion, Crete in mid-2025 and one in Helinikon expected to operate in 2027. Additionally, management plans to open a new generation of small IKEA, with total capacity of 2,000 sqm, near city centers to offer convenience and full access to products in urban areas. 

ATTIKI ODOS to distribute an interim dividend of EUR 40m (press)

According to Euro2day.gr, Attiki Odos is expected to distribute an interim dividend to its shareholders (Aktor concessions with 65.8% and AVAX with 34.2%) of EUR 40m, similar to last year. 

Polish competition authority doesn’t object the TERNA ENERGY sale to MASDAR

GEKTERNA announced that the polish competition authority decided not to initiate control proceedings and raised no objections to the acquisition of TERNA ENERGY by Masdar Hellas. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

31/10/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade AUG (ELSTAT) & Unemployment Rate SEP (ELSTAT)

01/11/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI OCT (09:00 UTC)

08/11/24 | CPI OCT (ELSTAT) & Industrial Production SEP (ELSTAT)

22/11/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review

Market

06/11/24 | MSCI Index Review announcement (Effective date: November 26, 2024)

3Q/9M24 Results Release

31/10/24 | Coca-Cola HBC (7:00am GMT), Piraeus Port Authority

01/11/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings

05/11/24 | Premia Properties

07/11/24 | National Bank of Greece (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement, Alpha Trust Andromeda

08/11/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (08:00 GR Time)

11/11/24 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt)

12/11/24 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt)

13/11/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)

14/11/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings, Lavipharm

20/11/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)

21/11/24 | Ideal Holdings (Bef-mkt)

25/11/24 | Hellenic Exchanges

26/11/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt)

12/12/24 | Attica Bank

EGM / AGM

04/11/24 | PPC (EGM)

06/11/24 | TERNA Energy (EGM)

08/11/24 | Biokarpet (EGM)

15/11/24 | BriQ Properties (EGM), Intercontinental International REIC (EGM)

19/11/24 | Intrakat (EGM)

Ex-Dividend

04/11/24 | OPAP (interim dividend EUR 0.602852798)

11/11/24 | Papoutsanis (interim dividend EUR 0.03)

02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)

23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)

Share Capital Increase – Attica Bank

21/10/24-04/11/24 | Exercise period of rights

13/11/24 | Commencement of trading of new shares SCI

Warrants – Attica Bank

21/10/24-04/11/24 | Offer Period

08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period

04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares

Research Department
Equity Research 

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr