Greek Market Watch: Euroelection results, 1Q24 GDP, NBG, Mytilineos, OTE, Hellenic Exchanges, Intralot, Galaxy Cosmos, REDS

OPTIMA

Today’s Headlines

·         Euroelection Results-high abstention rate, governing party at 28.3%, anti-systemic parties rise

·         Greek Economy – 1Q24 GDP (provisional data): GDP increases in 1Q24 by 2.15% y-o-y and by 0.7% q-o-q driven by Gross capital formation (investments and inventory) and despite weak exports (-5.7% y-o-y)

·         National Bank of Greece to acquire stake from HFSF-Press

·         Metlen (Mytilineos) explores opportunities to enter the UK electricity retail market, LSE IPO is expected in late 2024 or early 2025 (Bloomberg)

·         OTE AGM on 28 June

·         Hellenic Exchanges CEO bought shares

·         Intralot lost a small VLT monitoring contract in Ohio that expires in June 2027-Press

·         Galaxy Cosmos AGM today

·         REDS to delist from ATHEX on 17 June

Market Comment

ATHEX headed north on Friday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.38% at 1,458.37 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.58%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.58% Banks Index: +0.31% and the traded value was shaped at EUR 93.3m, down from Thursday’s EUR 126.9m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose by 1.85% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +2.51%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.79%, Banks index: +4.38%). We expect the market to seek direction and some pressure from the international markets should be expected today, after yesterday’s elections. 

Political Headlines 

Euroelection Results-high abstention rate, governing party at 28.3%, anti-systemic parties rise

According to the Interior Ministry’s results, the governing party ND fell significantly short of its 2019 result (33.12%) in the previous Euro elections to 28.3%, holding however a wide lead over leftist SYRIZA, which won 14.9% and Pasok with 12.8%, while three anti-systemic right parties elected representatives. 

Macro Headlines 

Greek Economy – 1Q24 GDP (provisional data): GDP increases in 1Q24 by 2.15% y-o-y and by 0.7% q-o-q driven by Gross capital formation (investments and inventory) and despite weak exports (-5.7% y-o-y)

EUR bn

Current Prices, SA

YoY

Real Prices, SA

QoQ

YoY

1Q22

49,947

8.51%

47,248

2.21%

7.81%

2Q22

50,946

6.76%

47,439

0.40%

6.85%

3Q22

52,000

12.82%

47,695

0.54%

4.03%

4Q22

52,962

10.05%

48,219

1.10%

4.31%

1Q23

53,947

8.01%

48,158

-0.13%

1.93%

2Q23

55,119

8.19%

48,710

1.15%

2.68%

3Q23

55,382

6.50%

48,710

0.00%

2.13%

4Q23

55,594

4.97%

48,833

0.25%

1.27%

1Q24

56,637

4.99%

49,190

0.73%

2.14%

The Facts: The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) announced that 1Q24 GDP (in Real Prices, seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.73% QoQ, and by 2.15% YoY, compared to a 1.27% YoY growth in 4Q23 and a 1.93% YoY growth in 1Q23. On current (Nominal) seasonally adjusted basis, 1Q24 GDP (in volume terms) rose by a strong 5.0%.

Our Analysis: According to the 1Q24 GDP breakdown (seasonally adjusted), total consumption was up 1.1 YoY, exports were down by 5.7% YoY, Gross capital formation was up by 22.3% YoY and finally imports were up by 3.1% YoY. 

Our View: solid 1Q24 GDP data driven by gross capital formation which offset weak exports, paves the way for annual GDP growth of >2% for 2024. 

Company Headlines 

National Bank of Greece to acquire stake from HFSF-Press

Reportedly (newmoney), National Bank of Greece will acquire a stake from HFSF before the summer. Recall that HFSF holds a 18.39% stake in NBG.

 

Metlen (Mytilineos) explores opportunities to enter the UK electricity retail market, LSE IPO is expected in late 2024 or early 2025 (Bloomberg)

Evangelos Mytilineos, reportedly said on Friday that Metlen wants to enter the UK retail energy market as a new electricity supplier for British homes to rival the likes of Octopus and Ovo. Additionally, Metlen plans to retain its existing Athens listing but make London its primary home, which is expected in late 2024 or early 2025.

 

OTE AGM on 28 June

The company announced that the AGM of shareholders will be held on Friday 28 June at 11:00 Athens/09:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve among other the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.71 per share (DY: 5.2%, ex-dividend: 04 July) and the cancellation of 5,308,440 own shares. 

 

Hellenic Exchanges CEO bought shares

The company announced that the CEO purchased on 04 June, 10.000 common shares at an average price of EUR 5.00/share and a total value of EUR 50,039.22.

 

Intralot lost a small VLT monitoring contract in Ohio that expires in June 2027-Press

Press reports (newmoney) indicate that Intralot lost a VLT monitoring contract in Ohio. The impact is minimal, as the aforementioned contract generates revenues of just EUR 3.0m per annum (0.8% of group revenues) and will expire in June 2027. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 1.55/share.

 

Galaxy Cosmos AGM today

The AGM of the company will take place today at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve among other the distribution of a capital return of EUR 0.09 per share (Yield: 12%).

 

REDS to delist from ATHEX on 17 June

ELLAKTOR announced that 17 June will be the last trading of REDS, before its delisting from ATHEX. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

10/06/24 | CPI MAY & Industrial Production Index APR

13/06/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises APR

14/06/24 | Import Price Index in Industry APR

20/06/24 | Current Account Balance APR & Turnover Index in Industry APR

1Q24 Results Release

12/06/24 | LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)

28/06/24 | Attica Bank

EGM / AGM

10/06/24 | Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM), DAIOS Plastics (AGM)

11/06/24 | Prodea Investments (AGM), Performance (AGM)

12/06/24 | AVAX (AGM)

13/06/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM), DIMAND (AGM), Quality & Reliability (rep. EGM)

14/06/24 | Trade Estates (AGM), Intercontinental International REIC (AGM), Interlife (AGM)

17/06/24 | Loulis Food (AGM)

19/06/24 | Motor Oil (AGM), Biokarpet (AGM), Iktinos (AGM)

20/06/24 | Terna Energy (AGM), AS Company (AGM), Elton (AGM), Mevaco (AGM)

21/06/24 | Fourlis (AGM), Flexopack (AGM)

26/06/24 | GEK TERNA (AGM), Technical Olympic (AGM), INTERTECH (AGM), Voyatzoglou Systems (AGM)

27/06/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), PPC (AGM), LAMDA Development (AGM), Elastron (AGM), Space Hellas (AGM), Athens Medical (AGM)

28/06/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), OTE (AGM), Epsilon Net (AGM), EKTER (AGM), Frigoglass (AGM), Creta Plastics (AGM), Alumil (AGM), AVE (AGM)

02/07/24 | Intrakat (AGM), KRI-KRI (AGM), Centric (AGM)

03/07/24 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)

04/07/24 | Piraeus Port (AGM), Elinoil (AGM)

05/07/24 | ILYDA (AGM), Sunrise Mezz PLC (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC (AGM), Medicon (AGM)

09/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings (AGM), Lavipharm (AGM)

10/07/24 | Attica Bank (AGM), AVE (AGM)

11/07/24 | EYDAP (AGM)

19/07/24 | Quality & Reliability (AGM)

23/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)

25/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (AGM)

26/07/24 | Evrofarma (AGM)

20/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co. (AGM)

30/08/24 | Ble Kedros (AGM)

04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM)

06/09/24 | Domiki Kritis (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

12/06/24 | BriQ Properties (EUR 0.1045)

14/06/24 | Prodea Investments (rem. EUR 0.137)

19/06/24 | Trade Estates

25/06/24 | Optima bank (EUR 0.44), Titan Cement (EUR 0.85), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.24), ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.04), Viohalco (EUR 0.12), Cenergy (EUR 0.08), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.22), Intracom (EUR 0.05), Intercontinental International

26/06/24 | Motor Oil (rem. EUR 1.40), Mytilineos (EUR 1.50), Fourlis (EUR 0.12)

01/07/24 | Loulis Food

02/07/24 | Flexopack

03/07/24 | Interlife

04/07/24 | OTE (EUR 0.71)

05/07/24 | Trastor REIC (EUR 0.02)

08/07/24 | Terna Energy (EUR 0.38), EKTER

10/07/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (rem. EUR 0.60), Jumbo (EUR 1.00), AS Company

15/07/24 | Vogiatzoglou Systems (EUR 0.145), Medicon

16/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net

18/07/24 | ILYDA (EUR 0.02)

22/07/24 | PPC (EUR 0.25), EYDAP (EUR 0.10), Space Hellas (EUR 0.16)

29/07/24 | Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34), AVAX (EUR 0.03)

01/08/24 | Creta Plastics

22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)

27/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co.

02/09/24 | ADMIE Holding

11/09/24 | Ble Kedros

12/09/24 | Evrofarma

Ex-Capital Return

25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)

02/07/24 | Intracom Holdings (EUR 0.07)

22/07/24 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.50)

25/07/24 | Ideal Holdings (EUR 0.20)

28/08/24 | GEK TERNA

Research Department
Equity Research

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