Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday for a second session in a row, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.80% to 1,454.10 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.01%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.02%, Banks Index: +1.60%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 145.9m, up from Monday’s EUR 129.0m. We expect the market to consolidate at current levels today, with some profit taking in place.
Today’s Headlines
· Government updates growth and fiscal estimates for 2024-25 (press)
· Piraeus Bank completed sale of NPE portfolio
· Jumbo 1H24 preview | Strong sales growth; we expect an easy comp 2H24 despite supply chain disruptions.
· Alpha Services and Holdings Share Buyback
· Attica Bank EGM today
· METLEN and GEKTERNA submit binding offers for a EUR 131m irrigation system (press)
· Aegean Airlines’ Green Hangar becomes operational
· INTRAKAT 1H24 Results release date
· Biokarpet 1H24e Results on 30 September bmo
Macro Headlines
Government updates growth and fiscal estimates for 2024-25 (press)
According to Kathimerini, the Greek FinMin lowered the GDP growth estimate to 2.2% and 2.3% for 2024 and 2025 respectively (from 2.5% and 2.6% previously), while upgraded the primary surplus forecast to 2.4% for 2024 (vs. the 2.1% target), adding that he expects the Debt/GDP ratio to drop close to 130% in the next four years, from 152.7% this year.
Company Headlines
Piraeus Bank completed sale of NPE portfolio
Piraeus Financial Holdings announced that its subsidiary Piraeus Bank has completed the sale of a NPE portfolio of EUR 350.0m gross book value (Project Monza) to an entity managed by Waterwheel Capital Management for a cash consideration of 31% (EUR 108.5m) of the portfolio gross book value. The portfolio has already been classified as held for sale since 31 December 2023. The PnL impact from the transaction completion and derecognition and the impact from the RWA relief associated with the portfolio is already incorporated in the 30 June 2024 pro forma total capital ratio. Reportedly (newmoney), management stated on a roadshow that net credit expansion will reach EUR 2.0bn in 2024, above the target of EUR 1.7bn and in line with our estimate. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector and we reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 5.50/share.
JUMBO || BUY | CP EUR 25.36 | TP EUR 31.10
1H24 preview: Strong sales growth; we expect an easy comp 2H24 despite supply chain disruptions.
Jumbo is set to release its 1Η24 results tomorrow, before market opening. The company has already announced a sales growth of c.8% y-o-y in 1H24, which in our view will lead to the delivery of better results in FY24 above management’s outlook of c. 4% sales improvement given that in the 2H24e the company will operate on easy comps with more operating stores. In terms of profitability, we expect that Jumbo will close the first half with a gross profit margin of 54.8% (-50bps vs. 1Η23), an improved EBITDA at EUR 158.0m (+7.8% y-o-y), and net profits at EUR 113.5m (+6.6% y-o-y).
Dividend policy | On the dividend front, the company distributed on July a cash dividend of EUR 1.00/share, in addition to 0.60/share in March 2024, recording a 38.5% increase vs. the prior year’s 1H23 distribution. Additionally, Jumbo recently announced a new buyback programme of up to 10% of the company’s share capital that will last for the next 2 years further supporting the stock performance and rewarding existing shareholders.
Table 1 | 1H24e P&L forecasts
|
EUR m |
1H23 |
1H24 |
YoY |
|
Revenues |
424.8 |
460.5 |
8.4% |
|
Gross profits |
234.9 |
252.4 |
7.4% |
|
margin (%) |
55.3% |
54.8% |
|
|
EBITDA |
146.5 |
158.0 |
7.8% |
|
EBITDA margin (%) |
34.5% |
34.3% |
|
|
Net profits |
106.4 |
113.5 |
6.6% |
Source: Optima bank research
Sales performance in 8-month 2024| The company has recently announced its sales performance for the period Jan-Aug 2024. Group sales grew by c. 7% y-o-y, with sales in August also recording a solid c. 8% y-o-y increase, despite a like-for-like comparison with last year’s also strong sale growth. It is noted that all countries where Jumbo operates, posted positive sales growth in Jan-Aug24 (Greece c. +7%, Cyprus c. +1%, Bulgaria c. +9%, Romania c. +12%). In terms of the 2024 outlook, the company guided for sales growth of c. 4% y-o-y at c. EUR 1,130m in 2024, below our 7.6% sales growth estimate for FY24. Regarding profitability, the management expects net income to stand c. EUR 300m in FY24 (vs. our estimate of EUR 315.8m). We remind that the management is running a stable price policy trying to improve competitiveness and trying to keep prices at consistent levels with consumers’ income, that in our view will further boost sales performance.
Alpha Services and Holdings Share Buyback
Alpha Services and Holdings announced that during the period 16.9.2024 and 20.9.2024, it purchased from 16 to 20 September, 2,562,550 own shares at an average price of EUR 1.5587/share and total cost of EUR 3,994,366.12. The company holds 17,765,699 own shares, representing 0.76% of shares outstanding.
Attica Bank EGM today
The EGM of shareholders will take place today at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve 1) the reverse split of existing shares (50.014.177) by merging 100 shares to 1 and the increase of the nominal value to EUR 5.00/share from EUR 0.05, 2) the reduction of the share capital by EUR 2.626.687,80 through a reduction of the nominal value of each share from EUR 5.00 to EUR 0.05, with the aim of formation of a special reserve, 3) the increase of the share capital by EUR 17,973,468 with the possibility of partial coverage, by issuing up to 359,469,360 new common shares of a nominal value of EUR 0.05 each with payment in cash, and disposal through a public offer and with preemption rights in favor of the existing shareholders at an offer price of EUR 1.87 per share and 4) the issuance of up to 359,469,360 warrants with the possibility of partial coverage, which will be offered to participants of the bank’s share capital increase, excluding the pre-emption right of the existing shareholders.
METLEN and GEKTERNA submit binding offers for a EUR 131m irrigation system (press)
According to Kathimerini, METLEN and GETERNA are the only two competitors that submitted binding offers for a EUR 131m irrigation system contract in Karditsa, central Greece. Additionally, as per the same press report, GEKTERNA submitted the only binding offer for an irrigation system contract in Xanthi, Northeastern Greece of a EUR 220m value.
Aegean Airlines’ Green Hangar becomes operational
The company announced that completed the investment in the new Green Hangar, with a total cost of EUR 140m that will include the new technical base with a maintenance capacity for 12 aircraft as well as the flight simulation and the new training centre. The new Green Hangar has 5,238 photovoltaic panels with a total capacity of 3MW which is the largest rooftop photovoltaic park in Greece.
INTRAKAT 1H24 Results release date
INTRAKAT will release the 1H24 Results on Monday, 30 September after the market close, with a conference call scheduled for the same day at 18.00 local time.
Biokarpet 1H24e Results on 30 September bmo
Biokarpet is set to release the 1H24e results on Monday 30 September, before the market opening.
Calendar of Events
Macros
27/09/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator SEP & Building Activity JUN
30/09/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade JUL & Producer Price Index in Industry AUG
01/10/24 | Unemployment Rate AUG & S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI SEP (08:00 UTC)
10/10/24 | CPI & Harmonized CPI SEP & Industrial Production Index AUG
2Q/1H24 Results Release
25/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt)
26/09/24 | GEK TERNA (Aft -mkt), TERNA Energy (Aft -mkt), EYDAP, Loulis Food, Flexopack (Aft -mkt), Euroconsultants (Aft -mkt)
27/09/24 | Piraeus Port Authority, Revoil (Aft-mkt), Alpha Real Estate, Ble Kedros, Sunrise Mezz Plc, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC, Orilina Properties, Alpha Trust Holdings, Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Trastor REIC, Daios Plastics
30/09/24 | Alumil (Aft-mkt), Intrakat (Aft-mkt), Biokarpet (Bef-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc, Space Hellas, Technical Olympic (Aft-mkt), INTERTECH, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Athens Medical Center, Interlife, Medicon, Pairis, Mevaco
EGM / AGM
25/09/24 | Attica Bank (EGM)
26/09/24 | Jumbo (EGM)
02/10/24 | Cenergy Holdings (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
11/10/24 | Domaine Costa Lazaridi (EUR 0.03)
21/10/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.17), Moda Bagno (EUR 0.38)
23/10/24 | ELVE (EUR 0.40)
04/11/24 | OPAP (interim dividend EUR 0.60)
ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)
02/10/24 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (09:30 Athens time)
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
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