Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday for a 4th session in a row, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index advanced by 0.67% at 1,615.02 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.61%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.20%, Banks Index: +0.73%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 98.5m, down from Friday’s EUR 114.6m. We expect the market to consolidate at current levels today.
Today’s Headlines
· Potential exception of defense spending could create additional fiscal room for tax relief measures (press)
· Central government budget execution January 2025 (preliminary)
· Increased flight schedules from American Airlines to Greece (Press)
· Optima Bank FY24 results out on Thursday 06 March, AGM on 29 April
· METLEN Preview 4Q24e: Solid Performance, 2024e guidance delivered, we expect DPS at EUR 1.54/share; attractive at current levels
· Bank of Cyprus FY24 results out today
· National Bank of Greece FY24 results out on Friday 28 February, AGM on 30 May
· Reggeborgh expects the fit & proper by BoG to increase its stake up to 33%-Press
· GEKTERNA announces increased traffic in its major motorways for 2024
· Motodynamics Financial Calendar 2025
· Noval Property Financial Calendar 2025
Macro Headlines
Potential exception of defense spending could create additional fiscal room for tax relief measures (press)
According to KATHIMERINI, the potential exception of the state budget expenditures towards defense in the EU, could create additional fiscal room of EUR 1.5bn or 0.6% of the Greek GDP for additional relief measures, without breaching the EU-mandated ceiling on state expenditures increase.
Central government budget execution January 2025 (preliminary)
Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January 2025, the central government budget recorded a EUR 780m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 200m (based on the 2025 Budget introductory report) and an EUR 1,093 surplus in the same period in 2024. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 2,002m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 1,400m and an EUR 2,282m surplus in the same period in 2024.
Comment: It is noted that an amount of EUR 418m which refers to the time differentiation of grants from ordinary budget and an amount of EUR 202m which refers to the time differentiation of PIB payments, do not affect the outcome in fiscal terms. With the exception of the above amounts, the State Budget Primary Balance is close to the target.
Sector Headlines
Increased flight schedules from American Airlines to Greece (Press)
According to Kathimerini there is a strong demand in the United States for travel to Greece and the American Airlines increasing their flight schedules. In 2025, Greece will have the most direct flights from/to America with the summer season schedule including 103 flights from 82 in 2024.
Company Headlines
Optima Bank FY24 results out on Thursday 06 March, AGM on 29 April
Optima Bank announced that it will report FY24 results on Thursday 06 March 2025, before the opening of ATHEX and management will host a CC on the same day. The AGM of shareholders will take place on Tuesday 29 April 2025.
METLEN || BUY | CP: EUR 36.86 | TP: EUR 49.00
4Q24e: Solid Performance, 2024e guidance delivered, we expect DPS at EUR 1.54/share; attractive at current levels
4Q24e Results Preview | METLEN (Mytilineos) is set to announce its 4Q/FY24e Results on Thursday, 20 February before the market opening. In more detail, we expect the further pick-up of the renewables segment, the increased output from thermal generation and the positive trends in the Metals BU to partially offset the softer contribution from the LNG trading & supply (on tough comparable) and the M Power projects Unit. Consequently, we see group revenues at EUR 1,681m, up by 19.8% y-o-y, group EBITDA at EUR 309m, up by 6.3% y-o-y in a EUR 214/65m Metals/Energy split, and accounting for EUR 50m depreciation charges, EUR 42m financial expenses and 26% effective tax rate, we see Net profits of EUR 147m (down by 8.6% y-o-y). In FY24e terms, we see group revenues at EUR 5.88bn, up by 7.1% y-o-y and EBITDA at EUR 1,072m (up 5.8% y-o-y), with more than 2/3 deriving from the Energy segment. Going down the P&L, accounting for Depreciation of EUR 150m, net financial expenses of EUR 120m and effective tax rate at 22%, we see net profits of EUR 629m, (+1% y-o-y). In this context, we expect METLEN to declare a similar to last year DPS, at EUR 1.54 (DY: 4.6%).
METLEN (Mytilineos) 4Q/FY24e Results Preview
|
In EUR million |
4Q23 |
4Q24e |
YoY |
FY23 |
FY24e |
YoY |
|
Group Revenues |
1,404 |
1,681 |
19.8% |
5,492 |
5,884 |
7.1% |
|
– Energy EBITDA |
234 |
214 |
-8.7% |
766 |
758.6 |
-1.0% |
|
– Metallurgy EBITDA |
55 |
65 |
18.6% |
248 |
272.2 |
9.8% |
|
– Construction/Concessions |
4 |
23 |
465.0% |
12 |
41.6 |
246.7% |
|
Group EBITDA |
291 |
309 |
6.3% |
1,014 |
1072.4 |
5.8% |
|
Net Income |
161 |
147 |
-8.6% |
623 |
629.1 |
1.0% |
Source: Optima bank Research, METLEN (Mytilineos)
Bank of Cyprus FY24 results out today
Bank of Cyprus is scheduled to report FY24 results today, before the opening of the session. According to Factset, consensus expects net interest income to shape at EUR 814.8m (+2.9% y-o-y), revenues at EUR ca1.09bn (-0.4% y-o-y), LLPs at EUR 59.0m (-6.0% y-o-y) and net profit at EUR 494.0m (+1.4% y-o-y). Finally, consensus forecasts remuneration per share to stand at EUR 0.55/share, implying a gross yield of 10.8%. Recall that BoC distributed EUR 137.0m (30% payout) in 2023, of which EUR 112.0m in cash dividend (EUR 0.25/share) and EUR 25.0m in share buyback.
National Bank of Greece FY24 results out on Friday 28 February, AGM on 30 May
National Bank announced that it will report FY24 results on Friday 28 February before the opening of ATHEX and management will host a CC on the same day at 10:30 Athens/08:30 London Time. The AGM of shareholders will be held on Friday 30 May 2025.
Reggeborgh expects the fit & proper by BoG to increase its stake up to 33%-Press
Reportedly (mononews), Reggeborgh applied to Bank of Greece for receiving the fit & proper and increase its stake from 10% to 33% in Alpha Services and Holdings. Recall that Alpha is scheduled to report FY24 results and its new BP on Friday 28 February. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.55/share.
GEKTERNA announces increased traffic in its major motorways for 2024
GEKTERNA announced increased traffic in its major motorways for 2024, with total toll transactions in Nea & Kentriki Odos at 60.6m. up by 8.6% y-o-y and at 100.2m in Attiki Odos, also up by 5.8% y-o-y.
Motodynamics Financial Calendar 2025
Motodynamics announced that it will report FY24 results on Wednesday 30 April 2025, the conference call is scheduled for Monday 5 May and the AGM will be held on Thursday 12 June 2025.
Noval Property Financial Calendar 2025
Noval Property announced that it will report FY24 results on Thursday 27 February 2025, the conference call is scheduled for the next day and the AGM will be held on Tuesday 27 May 2025, while dividend ex-date set for Tuesday 3 June 2025.
Calendar of Events
Macros
19/02/25 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises DEC (ELSTAT)
20/02/25 | Turnover Index in Industry DEC (ELSTAT) & Current Account Balance DEC (BoG)
4Q/FY24 Results Release
18/02/25 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt)
20/02/25 | METLEN (Bef-mkt)
24/02/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Athens International Airport (Bef-mkt)
26/02/25 | OTE (Bef-mkt)
27/02/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt)
28/02/25 | NBG (Bef-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings (08:00 GR time), Premia Properties
04/03/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
05/03/25 | Cenergy Holdings
06/03/25 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), Viohalco
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
28/04/25 | Alumil
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
26/02/25 | Attica Bank (EGM)
06/03/25 | EVROPI Holdings (EGM)
14/04/25 | Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | NBG (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
23/04/25 | Athens Airport
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
03/07/25 | OTE
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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