We expect the market to move higher today, aided by the PM denial for the imposition of an extra tax on the large companies.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek PM denies possible imposition of an extra tax on Greek companies (press)
· Greece to tap the markets with two bond issuances in 2025e (press)
· HICP slightly down in November (Eurostat)
· PPI in industry slightly drops in October (ELSTAT)
· Greek unemployment slightly increased to 9.8% in October
· Retail Sales up in September (ELSTAT)
· Electricity Suppliers announce retail tariffs for December
· GEKTERNA 9M24 results out
· Intralot 9M24 results
· OTE Share Buyback
Macro Headlines
Greek PM denies possible imposition of an extra tax on Greek companies (press)
In a TV interview, the Greek Prime Minister ruled out the possibility for an additional tax on the windfall profits of the major companies, adding that the solidarity tax on the refineries was a proposal introduced by the EC for two years and is now expired. Mr Mitsotakis also added that such a tax is rather of no use, as the government expenditures in the state budget have reached the EU-mandated ceiling, and that the government’s focus remains the further containment of the tax evasion.
Greece to tap the markets with two bond issuances in 2025e (press)
According to Kathimerini, PDMA plans to tap the international bond markets with two bond issuances in 2025e, one of which 10-year, aiming to raise EUR 8bn and targeting to further lower the bond spread over Germany by 10-30 bps.
HICP slightly down in November (Eurostat)
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 3.0% in November (and down by -1.1% m-o-m), slightly down compared to 3.1% in October and above the respective EU area figure (up to 2.3% in November from 2.0% in October).
PPI in industry slightly drops in October (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) dropped by 2.3% y-o-y in October 2024, driven by the price decreases in Energy goods (-6.2% y-o-y), while higher producer prices were gauged in durable consumer goods (+3.8% y-o-y;). In the November 2023- October 2024 period, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) decreased by 3.4% in comparison with the corresponding index for the period from November 2022 to October 2023.
Greek unemployment slightly increased to 9.8% in October
ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 9.8% in October 2024, slightly up from 9.4% in September 2024 and lower than 10.8% in October 2023. The number of unemployed persons amounted to 466,858, lower by 8.8% y-o-y and up by 5.0% m-o-m.
Retail Sales up in September (ELSTAT)
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) increased by 3.7% y-o-y in September 2024 (while also increased by 0.9% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales increased by 1.7% y-o-y. Per main store category, the turnover of the Food sector increased by 2.7% y-o-y, on higher prices with sales volume up by (0.4% y-o-y), while Non-food sector (except automotive fuel) sales increased by 5.2% y-o-y with sales volume up by 3.2% y-o-y. Finally, the turnover of the Automotive fuel sector decreased by 8.4% y-o-y, with sales volume up by 4.8% y-o-y.
Sector Headlines
Electricity Suppliers announce retail tariffs for December
The electricity suppliers announced higher retail tariffs for December, absorbing so some extent the increased wholesale price (wholesale electricity price in December shaped at EUR 137.42/MWh from EUR 90.06/MWh in October). In more detail, PPC announced EUR 155.5/MWh, ELPEDISON at EUR 158.5/MWh, METLEN’s PROTERGIA at EUR 159/MWh and GEKTERNA’s HERON at EUR 169.8/MWh.
Company Headlines
GEKTERNA 9M24 results out
GEKTERNA reported 9M24 group turnover of EUR 2.5bn, down by 2.0% y-o-y (due to lower contribution from thermal generation and construction), EBITDA adjusted of EUR 433.9m, up by 9.5% y-o-y), with construction/concessions/RES/Energy segments contributing EUR 98.2m/126/145.9m/82.6m respectively, while adjusted net profit stood at EUR 114.6m, up by 20.1% y-o-y and Net profit from continuous operations (i.e. excluding the held for sale Terna Energy) stood at EUR 96.1m, +25.5% y-o-y. Group backlog remained high at EUR 5.0bn, down by EUR 300m y-t-d, with scope to remain high as new project are to be onboarded. Turning to leverage, group net debt stood at the 9M24 end at EUR 1,712m, up by EUR 104m y-t-d, while excluding the RES-related debt, stands at EUR 891m and close to zero when accounting the EUR 864m cash proceeds from the sale of TE. Finally, GEKTERNA said that a) the Komotini CCGT (a 50%/50% JV with Motor Oil) is in trial operation, with the commercial operation expected in 1Q25e, b) Attiki Odos 25-year concession period commenced on October 6th, c) Kasteli airport construction at 40% (as of 30.09.2024), d) the Egnatia Odos concession agreement is signed with concession commencement anticipated in 1Q25 and e) the North Crete motorway concession agreement (Chania-Irakleio segment) is under preparation to be signed with the State
- Intralot 9M24 results
Group revenues came in at EUR 263.5m (-6% y-o-y), EBITDA at EUR 91.5m (-9% y-o-y) and EBITDA margin at 36.6% from 38.5% in 3Q23. Net profit reached EUR 6.5m (-28% y-o-y). FCF came in at EUR 25.8m (-39% y-o-y) on lower OpCF (-16% y-o-y), whilst CapEx was shaped at EUR 31.1m (-6% y-o-y). Net debt stood at EUR 326.2m (including restricted cash) from EUR 458.2m a year ago. Management stated on the conference call that Intralot is the preferred bidder for VLT monitoring in Nebraska (EBITDA EUR >2.5m) and is participating in various contests in US (Missouri, Illinois, Maryland). 9M24 results point that the company will deliver our FY estimates that call for revenues of EUR 365.3m and EBITDA of EUR 131.2m. We are Buyers on weakness.
- OTE Share Buyback
The company announced that during 25/11/2024 – 29/11/2024, it purchased 280,916 own shares at an average price of EUR 15.009 per share and now holds 6,049,691 own shares or 1.466% of the total shares outstanding.
Calendar of Events
Macros
02/12/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI NOV (09:00 UTC)
06/12/24 | 3Q:24 GDP (provisional data) (ELSTAT)
06/12/24 | Scope Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review
10/12/24 | CPI NOV & Industrial Production Index OCT
11/12/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises OCT
3Q/9M24 Results Release
12/12/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
09/12/24 | Alumil (EGM)
10/12/24 | Cairo Mezz Plc (EGM)
12/12/24 | Ble Kedros (EGM), Attica Holdings (EGM)
13/12/24 | Real Consulting (EGM)
16/12/24 | AS Company (EGM)
19/12/24 | Technical Olympic (EGM)
24/12/24 | MED (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)
16/12/24 | Trade Estates (interim dividend EUR 0.047706)
23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)
20/01/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (interim dividend EUR 0.20)
23/01/25 | Thrace Plastics (interim dividend EUR 0.0685848289)
Warrants – Attica Bank
04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares
Initiation of trading of new shares
02/12/24 | EVROPI Holdings (ex. Kloukinas-Lappas) (70.36m shares from merger with Intracom Properties)
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