Today’s Headlines
· Greece plans lower social contribution by 1% from 2025e (press)
· Greek HICP slightly up in August (Eurostat)
· PPI in industry slightly increased in July (ELSTAT)
· Retail Sales up in June (ELSTAT)
· Electricity Suppliers announce flattish retail tariffs for September
· HFSF to dispose its stake in National Bank in early October-Press
· Hellenic Bank net profit up 18% y-o-y in 1H2024
· Intralot | Soft performance in 1H24 impacted by negative FX in Argentina and higher OpEx
· OPAP | 2Q24e preview: Solid quarter, in trajectory to meet management guidance; we expect interim DPS of EUR 0.52
· HELLENiQ ENERGY launches a 2-year share buyback programme
· Cenergy Holdings holds an EGM on 2nd October
· Attica Bank EGM tomorrow
· Sarantis 1H24 Results release date
Macro Headlines
Greece plans lower social contribution by 1% from 2025e (press)
According to Kathimerini, the Greek government is planning to lower the social contributions by 1% from 2025e, which is budgeted EUR 430m p.a., subject to the approval by the EU authorities. Additionally, also according to Kathimerini, Greece is expected to record a primary surplus/GDP of 2.5%, well above the 2.1% target or EUR 880m, courtesy of increased tax revenues.
Greek HICP slightly up in August (Eurostat)
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 3.1% in August (and flat m-o-m), marginally higher compared to 3.0% in July and above the respective EU area figure (down to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in July).
PPI in industry slightly increased in July (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) increased by 0.1% y-o-y in July 2024, driven by the price increase in non-durable consume goods (+3.1% y-o-y), while lower producer prices were gauged in energy sub index (-1.2% y-o-y;). In the August 2023- July 2024 period, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) decreased by 4.9% in comparison with the corresponding index for the period from August 2022 to July 2023.
Retail Sales up in June (ELSTAT)
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) increased by 6.9% y-o-y in June 2024 (while also increased by 5.3% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales increased by 7.4% y-o-y. Per main store category, the turnover of the Food sector increased by 7.2% y-o-y, despite higher prices, sales volume were up by (6.2% y-o-y), while Non-food sector (except automotive fuel) sales increased by 6.8% y-o-y with sales volume also up by 5.2% y-o-y. Finally, the turnover of the Automotive fuel sector increased by 10.2% y-o-y, with sales volume following 9.4% y-o-y increase.
Sector Headlines
Electricity Suppliers announce flattish retail tariffs for September
The electricity suppliers announced their retail tariffs for September, which were broadly unchanged compared to August (wholesale electricity price in August shaped at EUR 129.5/MWh from EUR 135.2/MWh in July). In more detail, PPC announced EUR 159.4/MWh, down by 2.8% m-o-m, METLEN’s PROTERGIA unchanged m-o-m at EUR 160/MWh and GEKTERNA’s HERON also unchanged at EUR 158.7/MWh.
Company Headlines
HFSF to dispose its stake in National Bank in early October-Press
Reportedly (newmoney), HFSF plans to dispose a 8% to 10% of its 18.39% stake in National Bank of Greece in early October
EUROBANK || BUY | Target Price EUR: 2.41 | CP: EUR 2.064
Hellenic Bank net profit up 18% y-o-y in 1H2024
Optima View
Hellenic Bank reported 1H2024 results, with net profit at EUR 189m (+18% y-o-y). The news is positive on Eurobank which holds a majority stake of 55.962% and will fully consolidate Hellenic as of 3Q24. 1H24 results showed that there is plenty of room for Eurobank to improve NII and fee income generation as well as to contain costs more efficiently. In our view, the recent weakness of Eurobank offers a good entry point for medium term investors. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.41/share (excluding Hellenic Bank).
P & L KPIs
§ NII came in at EUR 304m (+29% y-o-y) and NIM at 3.28% on new lending of EUR 421m.
§ Fee income fell by 6% y-o-y to EUR 34.4m.
§ Total revenues shaped at EUR 361.8m (+23% y-o-y) and OpEx at EUR 145.2m (+15% y-o-y), with cost to income ratio at 40%.
§ Pre-provision income came in at EUR 216.6m (+29% y-o-y) and LLPs at EUR 600k (-90% y-o-y).
§ Net profit came in at EUR 189m (+18% y-o-y) in 1H2024.
§ RoTE stood at 24.3% in 1H23 and at 23.9% in 2Q24 from 24.8% in 1Q24.
Asset Quality
§ Group NPEs decreased to EUR 411.0m in 2Q24 from EUR 445.9m in 1Q24.
§ The NPE ratio squeezed by 10bps q-o-q to 2.4% and the NPE cash coverage at 39% from 42% in 1Q24.
Balance Sheet
§ Net loans stood at EUR 6.0bn and deposits at EUR 15.0bn (EUR +70m q-o-q), with net loans to deposits ratio at just 40%.
§ Hellenic repaid ECB funding of EUR 2.4bn in 2Q24.
§ Tangible Equity increased by EUR 94m q-o-q to EUR 1.647m and TBVPS stood at EUR 3.99 from EUR 3.76 in 1Q24. Hellenic has a market cap of EUR 1.26bn and is trading 0.76x P/TBV1H24.
§ Pro-forma FL CET1 ratio widened to 26.55% (including 1H24 net profit) vs. 24.6% in 1Q24.
§ Assets decreased to EUR 17.5bn from 19.7bn in 1Q24.
INTRALOT || BUY | Target Price EUR: 1.55 | CP: EUR 1.2020
Soft performance in 1H24 impacted by negative FX in Argentina and higher OpEx
Optima View
Intralot reported a soft set of results impacted by the negative FX movement of the operations in Argentina and by increased operating expenses. Management announced that it is currently pursuing a large number of promising commercial opportunities in North America and Australia and will host CC today at 17:00 Athens/ 15:00 London Time.
P & L
Group revenues came in at EUR 173.6m (-1% y-o-y), including total negative impact of EUR -10.3m in Argentina, due to the exchange rate movement in December 2023. Revenues in Europe dropped by 40% y-o-y to EUR 30.4m, in Americas narrowed by 9% y-o-y to EUR 104.0m and in other countries rose by 20% y-o-y to EUR 47.2m. Gross profit rose by 4% y-o-y to EUR 65.6m and gross margin widened to 37.8% from 35.9% in 1H23. Nonetheless, OpEx accelerated by 18% y-o-y to EUR 8.4m, mainly impacted by rising expenses in Bilyoner (Turkey) and hence group EBITDA dropped by 5% y-o-y to EUR 59.5m (-5% y-o-y) and EBITDA margin squeezed to 34.3% from 35.8% a year earlier. Below the EBITDA line, interest expenses rose by 14.7% y-o-y to EUR 21.9m and net profit came in at EUR 4.6m (+4% y-o-y) on lower taxation of just EUR 1.5m.
|
Group KPIs (EURm) |
1H24 |
1H23 |
% |
|
Revenues |
173.6 |
175.3 |
-1% |
|
Gross profit |
65.6 |
62.9 |
4% |
|
mgn |
37.8% |
35.9% |
– |
|
EBITDA |
59.5 |
62.8 |
-5% |
|
mgn |
34.3% |
35.8% |
– |
|
Net profit |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4% |
|
mgn |
2.6% |
2.5% |
– |
|
Net Debt |
362.2 |
480.5 |
-25% |
|
OpCF |
27.2 |
31.4 |
-13% |
|
CapEx |
-11.7 |
-14.1 |
-17% |
|
FCFE |
15.5 |
17.3 |
-10% |
source: Company
Cash flow
FCFE fell by 10% y-o-y to EUR 15.5m on the back of lower OpCF (-13% y-o-y) due to softer EBITDA and higher W/C needs (EUR -12.6m) and despite the lower CapEx requirements (-17% y-o-y).
Balance Sheet
Net Debt rose by EUR 8.6m q-o-q and reached EUR 362.2m. Equity increased to EUR 49.1m in 1H24 from EUR 42.1m in 2023.
OPAP || CP: EUR 15.64 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 19.30
2Q24e preview: Solid quarter, in trajectory to meet management guidance; we expect interim DPS of EUR 0.52
Solid 2Q24e performance | OPAP will release its 2Q24e results on Tuesday 3 September, AMC, while it will hold a cc the following day (16:00 Athens time). We expect a strong quarter in terms of top line, with revenue growth driven by Betting (supported by EURO 2024 soccer event) and Online Casino, while on the flip side Instant & Passives category continued losing momentum due to strong online competition. We project that high OpEx continued to trim profitability in 2Q24e affected by high advertising costs of Eurojackpot and Euro24. The quarter was marked by a) favourable Euro 2024 results for operators, b) the gradual increase of Eurojackpot, and c) the continued growth of Online casino with players increasing their engagement levels.
2Q24e P&L forecasts | In this context, we forecast revenues (GGR) of EUR 523.8m (vs. EUR 498.1m in 2Q23 +5.1% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 175.1m (vs. EUR 177.9m in 2Q23 -1.6% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 102.5m vs. EUR 103.9m in 2Q23 (-1.4% y-o-y). On the OpEx side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees and direct costs) are seen shaping at EUR 308.7m, accounting for 58.9% of total GGR, while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated to increase at EUR 109.2m (+14.3% y-o-y); accounting for 20.8% of total GGR vs. 19.2% in 2Q23. The increase in OpEx derived from the inflationary pressures that the company has been facing in the recent quarters (expected to normalize on a y-o-y basis in 2H24e) and the sharp increase from marketing expenses to support the Eurojackpot and the Euro24 betting. Consequently, group’s EBITDA margin is estimated to remain flat q-o-q at 33.4% but down from 35.7% y-o-y (-230bps). We note that we have assumed an income of EUR 58m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, as well as other operating income/costs (net) from non-gaming operations of EUR 11.3m (almost unchanged vs. last year) in the quarter.
Analysis per segment | Per product category, we see sports betting GGR (retail & online) at EUR 170.3m (up by 12.2% y-o-y) boosted by Euro 2024. Lottery revenues are estimated flattish at EUR 178.2m (up by 0.3% y-o-y), while VLTs GGR is seen at EUR 80.6m, down -0.5% y-o-y, assuming a flat net daily drop of EUR 42 per machine. In respect to Instant & Passives, we expect segmental performance to continue losing momentum, hence we forecast GGR of EUR 25.5m vs. EUR 29.6m in 2Q23. Finally, the On-line Casino operation is expected to record GGR of EUR 69.2m in 2Q24e (+19.2% y-o-y). All in all, we forecast online GGR of EUR 153.0m (+28.6% y-o-y; Stoiximan/OPAP Online GGR: EUR 130m/23m).
2Q/1H24 Group Key P&L Forecasts
|
EUR m |
2Q23 |
2Q24e |
y-o-y |
1H23 |
1H24e |
y-o-y |
|
Betting (Retail+Stoiximan+Online OPAP) |
151.8 |
170.3 |
12.2% |
320.6 |
338.8 |
1.9% |
|
Lottery (Retail + Online Loterry) |
177.7 |
178.2 |
0.3% |
366.4 |
374.3 |
5.6% |
|
Instant & Passives |
29.6 |
25.5 |
-14.0% |
60.1 |
53.2 |
-3.5% |
|
VLTs |
81.0 |
80.6 |
-0.5% |
165.4 |
167.1 |
2.3% |
|
Online casino (Online OPAP + Stoiximan) |
58.1 |
69.2 |
19.2% |
113.0 |
140.1 |
19.0% |
|
Revenues |
498.1 |
523.8 |
5.1% |
1025.6 |
1073.5 |
4.7% |
|
GGR tax & levies |
-153.3 |
-166.0 |
8.3% |
-317.2 |
-339.2 |
6.9% |
|
Net gaming revenue |
344.8 |
357.7 |
3.7% |
708.3 |
734.2 |
3.7% |
|
Agents fees |
-98.2 |
-98.9 |
0.7% |
-200.5 |
-203.9 |
1.7% |
|
Other operating income |
26.4 |
26.9 |
1.6% |
52.6 |
50.4 |
1.6% |
|
Other income related to the new lottery/betting concession |
57.5 |
58.0 |
0.8% |
115.4 |
116.8 |
1.2% |
|
Other operating costs |
-15.0 |
-15.6 |
4.0% |
-31.8 |
-29.0 |
4.0% |
|
Direct costs |
-42.0 |
-43.8 |
4.2% |
-85.2 |
-88.7 |
4.2% |
|
Opex |
-95.5 |
-109.2 |
14.3% |
-184.1 |
-214.5 |
19.5% |
|
Impairment of financial assets |
-0.1 |
0 |
-100.0% |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
-89.2% |
|
EBITDA |
177.9 |
175.1 |
-1.6% |
374.4 |
365.4 |
-2.4% |
|
% of GGR |
35.7% |
33.4% |
-230bps |
36.5% |
34.0% |
-250bps |
|
Depreciation |
-35.0 |
-33.0 |
-5.7% |
-64.8 |
-66.1 |
2.1% |
|
EBIT |
142.9 |
142.1 |
-0.6% |
309.6 |
299.2 |
-3.3% |
|
Net financial expense |
-2.0 |
-2.0 |
0.0% |
-5.0 |
-3.6 |
-28.7% |
|
EBT |
140.9 |
140.1 |
-0.6% |
304.6 |
295.7 |
-2.9% |
|
Income tax |
-35.4 |
-35.0 |
-1.0% |
-75.9 |
-74.9 |
-1.3% |
|
EAT |
105.6 |
105.1 |
-0.4% |
228.7 |
220.7 |
-3.5% |
|
Minorities |
-1.6 |
-2.6 |
n.m |
-4.3 |
-5.0 |
16.8% |
|
EAT ex-minorities |
103.9 |
102.5 |
-1.4% |
224.4 |
215.7 |
-3.9% |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
HELLENiQ ENERGY launches a 2-year share buyback programme
HELLENiQ ENERGY approved the initiation of a two-year share buyback programme for up to 1 mio company shares at the EUR 5-15/share price range.
Cenergy Holdings holds an EGM on 2nd October
Cenergy Holdings will hold an EGM on 2nd of October to approve the up to EUR 200m increase of the Company share capital.
Attica Bank EGM tomorrow
The EGM of Attica Bank will be held tomorrow at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time and shareholders will approve the merger of Attica Bank with Pancreta Bank by absorption of the latter by the former.
Sarantis 1H24 Results release date
Sarantis will release the 1H24 results on 2 September, amc with a conference call scheduled for the next day at 16.00 local time.
Calendar of Events
Macros
02/09/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI AUG
06/09/24 | GDP 2Q:24 (provisional data)
06/09/24 | DBRS – Greek sovereign credit review
13/09/24 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
2Q/1H24 Results Release
02/09/24 | Sarantis (Aft-Mkt)
03/09/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)
04/09/24 | QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
10/09/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
11/09/24 | Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
12/09/24 | LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt), Alpha Trust Andromeda
17/09/24 | Noval Property
19/09/24 | Viohalco, Attica Bank, Alpha Real Estate, Lavipharm
20/09/24 | Premia Properties, Logismos
25/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt)
26/09/24 | EYDAP, INTERTECH
27/09/24 | Piraeus Port Authority, Alpha Trust Holdings, Alumil (Aft-mkt), Biokarpet, Ble Kedros, Sunrise Mezz Plc, Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC, Trastor REIC
30/09/24 | Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc, Space Hellas, Technical Olympic (Aft-mkt), Athens Medical Center, Interlife, Medicon, Pairis
EGM / AGM
03/09/24 | Attica Bank (EGM)
04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM), Moda Bagno (AGM), Revoil (EGM)
06/09/24 | Orilina Properties (AGM), Domiki Kritis (AGM)
10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM), MED (AGM)
13/09/24 | Bank of Cyprus (EGM)
16/09/24 | Coca-Cola HBC AG (EGM)
17/09/24 | MED (EGM)
19/09/24 | Ideal Holdings (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
09/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (EUR 0.058)
12/09/24 | Evrofarma (EUR 0.05)
17/09/24 | Epsilon Net
Ex-Capital Return
12/09/24 | Unibios (EUR 0.02)
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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