Greek Market Watch: Fiscal policy, Industrial Turnover, Refineries, MSCI, ATHEX Index review, Optima bank, GEKTERNA, Alpha Holdings, Bank of Cyprus, OPAP, Cenergy, Titan, Hellenic Exchanges, Viohalco, ElvalHalcor, Intracom

·Today’s Headlines

·         Greece expects to collect EUR 300m from the tax on refineries, to support pensioners and Public investments

·         Industrial Turnover index up by 18.0% in April (ELSTAT)

·         Extra 33% tax on refineries

·         MSCI did not include ATHEX on its watch list

·         Semi-Annual Review of ATHEX Index Series changes today 

·         Optima Bank will be added to ATHEX and FTSE/ATHEX Index Series today

·         Optima Bank to trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

·         First read following the GEKTERNA-Masdar deal

·         Alpha Services and Holdings reorganization of Alpha Leasing

·         Bank of Cyprus shareholders explore sale of stake-Press

·         OPAP to trade ex-capital return on 25 June

·         CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables large EPCI contract with Elia Asset NV/SA for HV submarine cables valued EUR 200m

·         CENERGY Holdings ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

·         Titan Cement ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

·         Hellenic Exchanges to trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

·         VIOHALCO ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

·         ElvalHalcor ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

·         Intracom Holdings ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June 

Macro Headlines 

Greece expects to collect EUR 300m from the tax on refineries, to support pensioners and Public investments

The Greek PM Mr. Mitsotakis said yesterday that the government expects to collect up to EUR 300m from the extraordinary tax on the refineries. The revenue will be used mainly for the financial support of pensioners in December, as well as for strengthening of the National Public Investments Program. As of July 1, the reduced VAT rate for taxis becomes permanent (from 24% to 13%), with an estimated annual fiscal cost of EUR 45m. In addition, the reduced VAT rate (13%) remains on coffee, cocoa, tea and concerning deliveries of goods (take away and delivery), with an estimated fiscal cost of EUR 65m p.a. 

Industrial Turnover index up by 18.0% in April (ELSTAT)

ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 18.0% y-o-y in April 2024 compared to a decrease of 7.4% y-o-y in April 2023 while increased by 10.2% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the May 2023- April 2024 period dropped by 4.4% y-o-y compared to a 22.7% y-o-y rise in the respective May 2022-April 2023 period. 

Sector Headlines 

Extra 33% tax on refineries

The National Economy and Finance Ministry announced yesterday the imposition of a temporary solidarity contribution on the refineries of 33% on the excess profits for 2023 compared to the 2018-21 average. Based on our preliminary estimates, the impact for Motor Oil is approximately EUR 200m (c. EUR 1.8/share) and a similar or lower amount for HELLENiQ ENERGY. 

Market Headlines 

MSCI did not include ATHEX on its watch list

MSCI in his yearly Global Market classification review did not include ATHEX on its watch list for promotion to Developed Market status. 

Semi-Annual Review of ATHEX Index Series changes today 

According to the semi-annual review of the ATHEX Index series for the period November 2023-April 2024, Optima Bank-Intralot-Domiki Kritis and Quality & Reliability will be added to ATHEX Composite Price Index, whilst Ekter, Athens Medical, Elastron, Loulis Food, Space Hellas will be deleted. Moreover, Athens International Airport will be added to FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap and Quest Holdings will be deleted. Furthermore, Optima Bank and Quest Holdings will be added to FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap Index, whilst Alumil, Premia REIC will be deleted. Finally, Optima Bank will be added to FTSE Banks Index. Changes will be effective on Tuesday 25 June. 

Company Headlines 

Optima Bank will be added to ATHEX and FTSE/ATHEX Index Series today

According to the semi-annual review of the FTSE/ATHEX Index Series as well as the ATHEX Index Series, for the period November 2023-April 2024, Optima Bank will be added today at the close to FTSE / ATHEX MID CAP, FTSE/ ATHEX MARKET, FTSE / ATHEX BANKS, FTSE / ATHEX FINANCIAL SERVICES, ATHEX Composite Price Index and ATHEX Composite Total Return Index. 

Optima Bank to trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

The stock is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.44, DY: 3.5%) on Tuesday 25 June and payment will commence on Monday 01 July. 

First read following the GEKTERNA-Masdar deal:

·      Zero debt pro forma for GEKTERNA post transaction

·      GEKTERNA holds a call option to buy 50% of 3GW from the less mature RES projects (mainly pump and storage, Hydros and offshore projects) from Masdar

·      Current leverage and cash position offers EUR 2bn equity and 9bn EV projects capacity, which allows the company to bid for EUR8-9bn projects in the medium term

·      Many projects in Greece and Balkans suitable with GEKTERNA’s business profile

·      No extraordinary capital return will be distributed from GEKTERNA, cash proceeds will be channeled towards investments

·      Valuation: EV/EBITDA 16x, P/E: 34x

·      Public offer is expected no sooner than November

·      Expected clearance of the transaction from relevant authorities in 6 months

·      Official conference call for the transaction will be provided tomorrow

 

Alpha Services and Holdings reorganization of Alpha Leasing

Alpha announced that the reorganization of Alpha Leasing will be effectuated by a common demerger of Alpha Leasing.

The completion of the Demerger will entail (i) the transfer of the performing leasing contracts along with the relevant real estate interests to a newly established leasing entity that will remain part of the Group, (ii) the transfer of certain real estate assets to other Group Companies and (iii) the transfer of a perimeter of nonperforming financial leases along with the related real estate interests with a Gross Book Value of approximately EUR 240m (the “Andros Portfolio”) to Hellas Capital Leasing, a Greek leasing company, wholly owned by funds managed or advised by Bain Capital.

In light of the above, Alpha Leasing and its sole shareholder Alpha Holding S.A. have entered into a binding agreement with HCL and its shareholder, for the disposal by Alpha Holding to HCL’s shareholder of the shareholding interest that Alpha Holding S.A. will acquire in HCL upon completion of the Demerger, against the transfer of the Andros Portfolio to HCL.

The consideration for the transfer of the said shareholding interest in HCL exceeds 36% of the Gross Book Value (EUR >86m) of the Andros Portfolio. The transaction is expected to have no material impact on the capital and the liquidity position of the Group and completion is expected to take place by the end of 2024. 

Bank of Cyprus shareholders explore sale of stake-Press

Reportedly (Bloomberg), two of the top investors (AB CarVal Investors: 9.07%, Caius Capital: 5.58%) at Bank of Cyprus that hold a combined 14.65% stake, have approached potential buyers including Alpha Services and Holdings. Bank of Cyprus has a market cap of EUR 1.9bn and hence the value of the combined stake amounts to EUR 278m, based on yesterday’s closing price. 

OPAP to trade ex-capital return on 25 June

The company will trade ex-capital return of EUR 0.25 per share on Tuesday 25 June. Note that due to the bank holiday on Monday today is the last day with the dividend right. (DY: 1.7%) 

CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables large EPCI contract with Elia Asset NV/SA for HV submarine cables valued EUR 200m

In a supplementary announcement, Cenergy Holdings said that the contract with Elia Asset NV/SA, for the engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) of 165km high voltage submarine power cables, is valued at EUR 200m. It is noted, that similar projects offer >20% EBITDA margin, implying EBITDA contribution of EUR 45-50m by the finalization of the project in 2027.  

CENERGY Holdings ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

CENERGY Holdings is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.08, DY: 0.9%) on Tuesday 25 June. 

Titan Cement ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

Titan Cement is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.85, DY: 2.9%) on Tuesday 25 June. 

Hellenic Exchanges to trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

The stock is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.25, DY: 5.0%) on Tuesday 25 June and payment will commence on Monday 01 July. 

VIOHALCO ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

VIOHALCO is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.12, DY: 2.0%) on Tuesday 25 June. 

ElvalHalcor ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

ElvalHalcor is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.04, DY: 2.2%) on Tuesday 25 June. 

Intracom Holdings ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June

The stock is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.05, DY: 1.6%) on Tuesday 25 June and payment will commence on Monday 01 July. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

27/06/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator JUN & Building Activity MAR

28/06/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry MAY & Turnover Index in Retail Trade APR

1Q24 Results Release

28/06/24 | Attica Bank

EGM / AGM

21/06/24 | Fourlis (AGM), Flexopack (AGM)

26/06/24 | GEK TERNA (AGM), Technical Olympic (AGM), INTERTECH (AGM), Voyatzoglou Systems (AGM)

27/06/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), PPC (AGM), LAMDA Development (AGM), Elastron (AGM), Space Hellas (AGM), Athens Medical (AGM)

28/06/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), OTE (AGM), EKTER (AGM), Frigoglass (AGM), Creta Plastics (AGM), Alumil (AGM), AVE (AGM), Pairis (AGM), Bitros (AGM)

02/07/24 | KRI-KRI (AGM)

03/07/24 | ADMIE Holding (AGM), Quality & Reliability (rep. EGM)

04/07/24 | Piraeus Port (AGM), Elinoil (AGM)

05/07/24 | Sunrise Mezz PLC (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC (AGM), ILYDA (AGM), Medicon (AGM)

08/07/24 | ELLAKTOR (EGM), Real Consulting (AGM)

09/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings (AGM), Lavipharm (AGM), Centric (AGM)

10/07/24 | Attica Bank (AGM), AVE (AGM), Intrakat (AGM), Papoutsanis (EGM)

11/07/24 | EYDAP (AGM), Alpha Real Estate (AGM)

19/07/24 | Quality & Reliability (AGM)

23/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)

24/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (AGM)

25/07/24 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)

26/07/24 | Evrofarma (AGM)

20/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co. (AGM)

30/08/24 | Ble Kedros (AGM)

04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM)

06/09/24 | Domiki Kritis (AGM)

10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

25/06/24 | Optima bank (EUR 0.44), Titan Cement (EUR 0.85), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.25036335), ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.04), Viohalco (EUR 0.12), Cenergy (EUR 0.08), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.22), Intracom (EUR 0.0503722776), Intercontinental International (EUR 2.21)

26/06/24 | Motor Oil (rem. EUR 1.432370310), Mytilineos (EUR 1.50), Fourlis (EUR 0.12)

28/06/24 | Performance Technologies (EUR 0.05263)

01/07/24 | Loulis Food (EUR 0.12)

02/07/24 | Flexopack

03/07/24 | Interlife (EUR 0.16)

04/07/24 | OTE (EUR 0.71)

05/07/24 | Trastor REIC (EUR 0.02), Mevaco (EUR 0.15)

08/07/24 | Terna Energy (EUR 0.38), EKTER

10/07/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (EUR 0.063), HELLENiQ ENERGY (rem. EUR 0.60), Jumbo (EUR 1.00), AS Company (EUR 0.13762556)

15/07/24 | Vogiatzoglou Systems (EUR 0.145), Medicon

16/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Alpha Real Estate

18/07/24 | ILYDA (EUR 0.02)

22/07/24 | PPC (EUR 0.25), EYDAP (EUR 0.10), Space Hellas (EUR 0.16)

25/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (EUR 0.0933)

26/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (EUR 0.026)

29/07/24 | National Bank of Greece (EUR 0.36), Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34), AVAX (EUR 0.03)

01/08/24 | Creta Plastics

22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)

27/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co.

02/09/24 | ADMIE Holding

11/09/24 | Ble Kedros

12/09/24 | Evrofarma

17/09/24 | Epsilon Net

Ex-Capital Return

25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)

02/07/24 | Intracom Holdings (EUR 0.07)

22/07/24 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.50)

25/07/24 | Ideal Holdings (EUR 0.20)

26/08/24 | Biokarpet (EUR 0.02)

28/08/24 | GEK TERNA

ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)

02/07/24 | AS Company (09:30 Athens time) 

Research Department
Equity Research 

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr

 

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