MARKET COMMENT
ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.30% at 1,625.54 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.43%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.70%, Banks Index: -0.13%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 201.3m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 374.6m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels today ahead of 4Q24 GDP data and DBRS rating review.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek GDP (provisional data) for 4Q24 out today
· DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review out today amc
· ECB lowered key rates by 25bps
· Optima bank CC Highlights
· Viohalco 2024 results out
· CENERGY FY24 Conference Call Highlights
· Eurobank acceptance period of mandatory takeover bid for Hellenic commences on 11 March, VES in Hellenic-Press
· NBG denied press reports on Bank of Cyprus
· CarVal decrease stake below 5.0% in Bank of Cyprus
· Attica Bank 2024 results out on 10 March
· GEKTERNA awarded a new PV contract from Terna Energy
· MASDAR proceeds with the squeeze out of the remaining Terna Energy
· ADMIE Holding suspends payments to NEXANS for the Crete-Cyprus cable (press)
· Ideal Holdings to trade ex-capital return today
HEADLINES
Macro Headlines
Greek GDP (provisional data) for 4Q24 out today
ELSTAT is set to release the 4Q24 GDP (provisional data) today at 12.00 local time. As a reminder, Greek GDP grew by 2.43% in 3Q24 and by 2.32% in 9M24, and consensus expects GDP growth of 2.2% for 2024.
DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review out today amc
DBRS is set to release the Sovereign Rating Review on Greece today after the market close. As a reminder, last September, DBRS Ratings upgraded the trends on Greece’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings to Positive from Stable and confirmed the ratings at BBB (low).
Sector Headlines
ECB lowered key rates by 25bps
The Governing Council of ECB decided yesterday to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 bps, in line with market expectations. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively, with effect from 12 March 2025.
Company Headlines
Optima bank CC Highlights
Management stated in the CC the following: a) Management will propose to the AGM of shareholders the distribution of 30% of net profits in 2024 in cash dividend. Recall that the AGM will take place on Tuesday 29 April 2025. b) the increase in the NPE cash coverage ratio was a strategic decision to enhance the quality of the balance sheet. They don’t see any sign of asset quality deterioration from the loan book or from economic conditions. c) Optima bank plans to issue a Tier 2 capital instrument of EUR ca150.0m in 1H25, which has been incorporated in FY25 net profit guidance.
- Guidance 2025
Net profit to exceed EUR 160.0m (>14% y-o-y)
RoTE to surpass 22.0%
Loans to grow by EUR 1.0bn to EUR 4.6bn
Deposits to increase by EUR 1.25bn to EUR 5.9bn
CoR between 50-55bps
OpEx to grow by <20% y-o-y
Fee income to grow by about 20% y-o-y
NPE ratio <1.5%
NII sensitivity: A 10bps move in interest rates has EUR 3m impact on NII
Viohalco 2024 results out
Viohalco reported 2024 revenues of EUR 6.6bn, up 5.0% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA of EUR 604m, up 12.5% y-o-y and pre-tax Profits at EUR 259.6m versus EUR 80.2m in 2023, supported by strong growth of the cables and pipes segments and also gains from metal inventory. Group net debt stood at EUR 1,377m, down by EUR 440m y-t-d and Capital expenditure for the period amounted to EUR 398m vs. EUR 280m a year ago. The group declared a EUR 0.16 DPS (DY: 2.8%, ex-date: 24 June)., The Company will hold a conference call today at 15.00 local time.
CENERGY FY24 Conference Call Highlights
During the Conference Call for FY24 Results, CENERGY’s management said that: a) guides for EBITDA of EUR 300-330m for 2025e, and up to EUR 380-420m in 2026-27e, driven by increased contribution from the higher-margin cables projects business b) construction of the new cables plant in the USA to commence this year and be completed in mid-2027e, c) tendering activity for offshore wind projects remains strong in Europe, no signs of deceleration yet, d) expects further backlog expansion in 2025e, e) capex (excluding the US plant) to drop to maintenance levels in 2H25 onwards
Eurobank acceptance period of mandatory takeover bid for Hellenic commences on 11 March, VES in Hellenic-Press
Eurobank announced that the acceptance period of the takeover bid for the shareholders of Hellenic Bank commences on 11 March 2025 and ends on 09 April 2025. Eurobank controls a 93.47% stake in Hellenic Bank and the consideration offered to the shareholders who control the remaining 6.53% is at EUR 4.843/share in cash. In other news and according to press reports (euro2day), Hellenic is pursuing a VES program and targets 400 employees to exit with a maximum compensation of EUR 200k. The same reports suggest that only 100 employees have participated hitherto, and management gave an extension until 11 March.
NBG denied press reports on Bank of Cyprus
National Bank of Greece denied yesterday electronic press articles concerning discussions for a strategic agreement between NBG and Bank of Cyprus. NBG as part of its strategy, continuously assesses potential opportunities that could enhance value for its shareholders.
CarVal decrease stake below 5.0% in Bank of Cyprus
Bank of Cyprus announced that CarVal decreased on 05 March its stake to 4.99% (21,959,322 voting rights) from 5.89% previously.
Attica Bank 2024 results out on 10 March
Attica Bank is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2024 results on Monday 10 March, post-market close. Management will host a CC on Tuesday 11 March at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time.
GEKTERNA awarded a new PV contract from Terna Energy
TERNA ENERGY awarded to the construction arm of GEK TERNA Group the development of a 130 MW photovoltaic (PV) plant in the Vratitsa area in Burgas, Bulgaria. It is expected to be connected to Bulgaria’s electricity grid by the end of ‘26.
MASDAR proceeds with the squeeze out of the remaining Terna Energy
MASDAR submitted yesterday a formal request to ATHEX to proceed with the squeeze out of the remaining Terna Energy shares offering EUR 20/share.
ADMIE Holding suspends payments to NEXANS for the Crete-Cyprus cable (press)
According to press reports, ADMIE, which operates the high-voltage direct current Great Sea Interconnector, has suspended payments over alleged Turkish interference in the project. In response to the matter, NEXANS announced that these claims do not reflect the actual status of the project or the ongoing relationship with the customer, adding that it intends to continue to perform the contractual obligations of the project and receive the corresponding payments, in accordance with the contract and the most recent discussions with the customer.
Ideal Holdings to trade ex-capital return today
The stock will trade ex-capital return today (EUR 0.10/share, Yield: 1.6%) and payment will commence on Friday 14 March.
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
Macros
07/03/25 | 4Q:24 GDP (provisional data) & 2024 GDP (estimates) (ELSTAT)
07/03/25 | DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review
10/03/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI FEB, Industrial Production Index JAN & Trade Balance JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Import Price Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
18/04/25 | Standard & Poor’s – Greek sovereign rating review
4Q/FY24 Results Release
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International, BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
02/04/25 | Trade Estates
08/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt)
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil (Aft-mkt)
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM), Autohellas (AGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
10/04/25 | Autohellas
23/04/25 | Bank of Greece (EUR 0.672), Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
03/06/25 | Noval Property (EUR 0.043)
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14)
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (EUR 0.55)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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