Market Comment
ATHEX headed north on Friday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.11% at 1,627.36 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.01%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.03%, Banks Index: -0.40%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 374.3m, up from Thursday’s EUR 201.3m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose by 1.22% w-o-w, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.39%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.65%, Banks index: +3.26%). Week Ahead: Attica Bank FY24 results today, Autohellas and Sarantis FY24 results on Wednesday, Moody’s sovereign debt review on Friday. We expect ATHEX to move higher today, aided by the positive trends in the European stock markets.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek Economy–FY24 GDP (provisional data): 2024 GDP Growth at +2.3%, slightly above State Budget estimate (+2.2%) and European Commission (+2.1%) driven by Gross capital formation (investments and inventory) and despite weak net exports and consumption; 4Q24 GDP increases by 2.62% y-o-y and by 0.90% q-o-q
· DBRS upgrades its rating for Greece to BBB, with stable trends from positive
· Escape clause for defense-related spending to create additional fiscal room
· GREEK BANKS | Another stellar performance, net profit up 19% y-o-y in 2024
· Piraeus to announce the acquisition of Ehtiniki Insurance by the end of March-Press
· BoD approved the merger between Alpha Services and Holdings and Alpha Bank
· Attica Bank 2024 results out today, post-market close
· Aegean passenger traffic up by 9% y-o-y in 2M25
· Covalis Capital extends its participation in PPC
· Ongoing talks between AKTOR Group and ELLAKTOR for AKTOR Concessions (press)
· AVAX shareholders to proceed with a placement of 5% of company shares (press)
· Trastor AGM on 28 March
Macro Headlines
Greek Economy–FY24 GDP (provisional data): 2024 GDP Growth at +2.3%, slightly above State Budget estimate (+2.2%) and European Commission (+2.1%) driven by Gross capital formation (investments and inventory) and despite weak net exports and consumption; 4Q24 GDP increases by 2.62% y-o-y and by 0.90% q-o-q
|
EUR bn |
Current Prices, SA |
YoY |
Real Prices, SA |
QoQ |
YoY |
|
4Q22 |
53,144 |
9.40% |
48,603 |
0.86% |
4.10% |
|
1Q23 |
54,786 |
8.40% |
48,613 |
0.02% |
2.00% |
|
2Q23 |
56,109 |
8.92% |
49,191 |
1.19% |
3.10% |
|
3Q23 |
56,170 |
9.75% |
49,265 |
0.15% |
2.23% |
|
4Q23 |
57,352 |
7.92% |
49,573 |
0.63% |
2.00% |
|
1Q24 |
57,844 |
5.58% |
49,625 |
0.10% |
2.08% |
|
2Q24 |
59,015 |
5.18% |
50,243 |
1.25% |
2.14% |
|
3Q24 |
59,298 |
5.57% |
50,419 |
0.35% |
2.34% |
|
4Q24 |
60,551 |
5.58% |
50,874 |
0.90% |
2.62% |
The Facts: The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) announced that 4Q24 GDP (in Real Prices, seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.90% q-o-q, and by 2.62% y-o-y, compared to a 2.34% y-o-y growth in 3Q24 and a 2.0% y-o-y growth in 4Q23. In FY24 terms, Real GDP rose by 2.30% y-o-y. On current (Nominal) seasonally adjusted basis, 4Q24 GDP (in volume terms) rose by a strong 5.58%.
Our Analysis: According to the 4Q24 GDP breakdown (seasonally adjusted), total consumption was up 1.3% y-o-y, exports also up by 3.3% y-o-y, Gross capital formation was up by 18.7% y-o-y and finally imports were up by 4.2% y-o-y.
Our View: solid 4Q24 and FY24 GDP data driven by gross capital formation which offset weak net exports and consumption, paved the way for annual full year GDP growth slightly above estimates (EC autumn forecast at 2.1%, Greek Budget at +2.2%).
DBRS upgrades its rating for Greece to BBB, with stable trends from positive
DBRS Ratings upgraded the Hellenic Republic’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings to BBB from BBB (low), with stable trends. According to the agency, the Greek public debt ratio is expected to shape at 154.1% of GDP in 2024 and further down to 149.1% this year, benefited by 2.5% surplus and 2.3% GDP growth in 2025. In Morningstar DBRS’ view, risks to public debt sustainability are mitigated by several factors. First, Greece’s debt structure is very favourable with 100% of debt at fixed rates after swaps. Secondly, the weighted-average maturity is very high, at around 19 years, and around 74% of the debt is held by the official sector, which makes the debt less susceptible to market volatility. Finally, the Greek Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) has been able to temporarily overhedge its debt portfolio, mitigating the impact of the rise in interest costs. This will be translated into contained interest costs over the medium-term.
Escape clause for defense-related spending to create additional fiscal room
According to Kathimerini, the activation of the escape clause for the increase state budget in the EU countries towards defense, could offer additional fiscal room of EUR 500m for Greece, in 2026e, or 0.6% of GDP. Commenting on the matter, the finance minister Mr. Hatjidakis reportedly stated that the government is considering tax relief measures from 2026e onwards, adding that the specific announcements will be made in the Thessaloniki International Fair this September. According to Euro2day.gr, the size of these tax relief measures could reach EUR 2.5bn.
Sector Headlines
GREEK BANKS | Another stellar performance, net profit up 19% y-o-y in 2024
Piraeus Financial Holdings | BUY | CP: EUR 4.70 | TP: EUR 6.20
Alpha Services and Holdings | BUY | CP: EUR 2.052 | TP: EUR 2.55
National Bank of Greece | BUY | CP: EUR 9.38 | TP: EUR 10.92
Eurobank Holdings | BUY | CP: EUR 2.49 | TP: EUR 3.00
Optima bank | Restricted | CP: EUR 14.62
2024 was another stellar year for the four systemic banks, with net profits up 19% y-o-y due to organic profitability as well as further improvement in liquidity, asset quality and capital dynamics. In more detail, the five listed banks generated a net profit of EUR 4.47bn (+19% y-o-y) on the back of higher NII (+7% y-o-y), fee income (+17% y-o-y) and lower LLPs (-28% y-o-y). The median NPE ratio improved to 2.6% in 2024 from 3.5% in 2023, below Spanish (3.0%) and close to Italian banks (2.4%), whilst the median cash coverage ratio widened further to 88.4%. Group net loans came in at EUR 170.4bn (+12% y-o-y), deposits at EUR 254.7bn (+13% y-o-y) and assets at EUR 333.8bn (+9% y-o-y). Tangible equity came in at EUR 31.1bn, the median RoaTBV was shaped at 15.7%, higher than EU banks of 15.2% and the FL CET1 ratio stood at 15.7% in 2024, well above minimum thresholds and including payouts for 2024 (median payout at 43%). We reiterate our Buy rating on Greek banks, with Piraeus Financial Holdings (TP: EUR 6.20) and Alpha Services and Holdings (TP: 2.55) our top picks, offering an upside potential of 32% and 24% respectively.
|
Alpha |
|
Eurobank |
|
NBG |
|
Piraeus |
|
Optima bank |
|
Sector |
||
|
EUR m |
2024 |
YoY |
2024 |
YoY |
2024 |
YoY |
2024 |
YoY |
2024 |
YoY |
2024 |
YoY |
|
NII |
1,647 |
-1% |
2,507 |
15% |
2,356 |
4% |
2,088 |
4% |
190 |
34% |
8,788 |
7% |
|
Fees |
420 |
12% |
666 |
22% |
427 |
12% |
648 |
19% |
41 |
29% |
2,202 |
17% |
|
Core income |
2,067 |
2% |
3,173 |
17% |
2,784 |
5% |
2,736 |
7% |
231 |
33% |
10,990 |
9% |
|
Non-recurring income |
152 |
86% |
69 |
-19% |
104 |
11% |
21 |
-68% |
24 |
26% |
369 |
7% |
|
Total Revenues |
2,219 |
5% |
3,242 |
16% |
2,887 |
5% |
2,757 |
5% |
255 |
32% |
11,359 |
9% |
|
OPEX |
866 |
6% |
1,071 |
19% |
884 |
6% |
877 |
2% |
58 |
2% |
3,757 |
8% |
|
PPI reported |
1,352 |
4% |
2,171 |
14% |
2,003 |
5% |
1,880 |
7% |
197 |
45% |
7,602 |
9% |
|
Provisions |
236 |
-24% |
319 |
-7% |
180 |
-13% |
281 |
-50% |
21 |
107% |
1,036 |
-28% |
|
Reported net profit |
654 |
6% |
1,448 |
27% |
1,158 |
5% |
1,066 |
35% |
140 |
36% |
4,466 |
19% |
|
RoaTBV |
9.7% |
– |
18.0% |
– |
15.6% |
– |
15.7% |
– |
25.3% |
– |
15.7% |
– |
|
NIM (%) |
2.28% |
– |
2.73% |
– |
3.19% |
|
2.70% |
|
4.04% |
|
2.73% |
– |
|
Balance sheet &Liquidity |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Loans |
39,703 |
7% |
52,265 |
22% |
37,034 |
5% |
41,375 |
8% |
3,657 |
49% |
174,035 |
12% |
|
Net Loans |
39,050 |
8% |
50,953 |
23% |
36,139 |
6% |
40,685 |
8% |
3,613 |
49% |
170,439 |
12% |
|
Deposits |
51,032 |
5% |
78,593 |
37% |
57,593 |
1% |
62,853 |
6% |
4,643 |
45% |
254,713 |
13% |
|
TBV |
7,036 |
9% |
8,484 |
12% |
7,768 |
9% |
7,200 |
13% |
609 |
22% |
31,097 |
11% |
|
Assets |
72,075 |
0% |
101,150 |
27% |
74,957 |
1% |
80,044 |
5% |
5,541 |
43% |
333,767 |
9% |
|
Net Loans/ Deposits |
77% |
– |
65% |
– |
63% |
– |
65% |
– |
78% |
– |
66.9% |
– |
|
Eurosystem (total) |
2,600 |
-48% |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
2,600 |
-82% |
|
% of Assets |
3.6% |
– |
0.0% |
– |
0.0% |
– |
0.0% |
– |
0.0% |
– |
0.8% |
– |
|
Asset quality |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Group NPEs |
1,491 |
-37% |
1530 |
1% |
945 |
-26% |
1,068 |
-20% |
31 |
180% |
5,065 |
-22% |
|
NPE ratio |
3.8% |
– |
2.9% |
– |
2.6% |
– |
2.6% |
– |
0.85% |
– |
2.6% |
– |
|
NPE coverage |
53.0% |
– |
88.4% |
– |
98.2% |
– |
64.7% |
– |
144.1% |
– |
88.4% |
– |
|
Capital |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FL CET1 ratio (%) |
16.3% |
– |
15.7% |
– |
18.3% |
– |
14.5% |
– |
14.3% |
– |
15.7% |
– |
|
FL CAD (%) |
21.9% |
– |
18.5% |
– |
21.1% |
– |
19.7% |
– |
14.3% |
– |
19.7% |
– |
source: Greek Banks
Company Headlines
Piraeus to announce the acquisition of Ehtiniki Insurance by the end of March-Press
Reportedly (newmoney), Piraeus Financial Holdings will announce the acquisition of 70% of Ethiniki Insurance by the end of the month. The news is positive and expected.
BoD approved the merger between Alpha Services and Holdings and Alpha Bank
The Board of Directors approved the merger agreement between Alpha Services and Holdings and Alpha Bank at a proposed exchange ratio for one (1) existing common share with a nominal value of EUR 0.29, of Alpha Services and Holdings for one (1) new common share of Alpha Bank with a nominal value of EUR 0.29. Upon the completion of the merger, Alpha Bank will become the parent company of the group. The news is positive and expected.
Attica Bank 2024 results out today, post-market close
Attica Bank is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2024 results today, post-market close. Management will host a CC tomorrow at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time.
Aegean passenger traffic up by 9% y-o-y in 2M25
Aegean Airlines carried a total of 1.9m passengers in 2M25 (+155k more passengers vs. 2M24), up by 9% y-o-y, with international passengers up by +13% y-o-y and domestic passengers up by c. +3% y-o-y. The company offered 2.4m more seats in 2M25 (+8% y-o-y), while the load factor remained high at 79.4%, almost flat y-o-y. For FY25e management stated that will offer a total of c. 21.5m available seats (+8.4% y-o-y or 1.8m more seats) with c.12% increase in international and c.6% increase in the domestic network seats. Aegean will add new flights in the Turkish market and will strengthen its activities in the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkans, Egypt, Italy, Switzerland as well as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco. In the domestic network, a significant effort is being made to add new direct connections to more destinations within Greece.
|
Key Statistics |
2M24 |
2M25 |
Y-o-Y |
||||
|
Available seats |
2.248 |
2.437 |
8.4% |
||||
|
Domestic passengers |
720 |
742 |
3.1% |
||||
|
International passengers |
1.058 |
1.193 |
12.8% |
||||
|
Total passengers |
1.780 |
1.935 |
8.7% |
||||
|
Load factor |
79.2% |
79.4% |
20bps |
Aegean Airlines also announced that FY24 total passenger traffic increased by c.6% y-o-y (+1.1m seats) to 16,335m passengers (domestic/ international passengers up by 8%/4% y-o-y), while offered 19,790 available seats (+6.2% y-o-y). According to the available data load factors of the airline marginally fell in FY24 by 50bps to 82.5% vs. 83.0% in FY23.
|
Key Statistics |
FY23 |
FY24 |
Y-o-Y |
|
Available seats |
18.630 |
19.790 |
6.2% |
|
Domestic passengers |
6.239 |
6.719 |
7.7% |
|
International passengers |
9.223 |
9.616 |
4.3% |
|
Total passengers |
15.462 |
16.335 |
5.6% |
|
Load factor |
83.0% |
82.5% |
-50bps |
Comment: We highlight that Aegean Airlines is closely following the rapid increase in passenger traffic of Greek Airports and especially AIA where is the main base for the airline. Passenger traffic in AIA increased by 11.7% y-o-y in 2M25 with domestic traffic up by 2.3% vs. Aegean’s 3.1% increase in traffic (implying possible gain in market share) while international traffic was up by 15.3% vs. Aegean’s passenger traffic increase of 12.8%. For FY24 Aegean curried 16.3m passengers in line with our estimate.
Covalis Capital extends its participation in PPC
PPC announced that Covalis Capital LLP extended its total participation in the company’s share capital to 5.44% of total on 24.02.2025 from 4.97% on 18.02.2025. in other related news, according to Radar.gr, CVC has extended its stake in PPC’s share capital close to 15% from 10%, aiming to further increase its share close to 20%.
Ongoing talks between AKTOR Group and ELLAKTOR for AKTOR Concessions (press)
According to Euro2day.gr, AKTOR Group is in talks with ELLAKTOR for the acquisition of AKTOR Concessions, with no result yet.
AVAX shareholders to proceed with a placement of 5% of company shares (press)
According to press reports, AVAX’s three major shareholders, Mr. Midjalis, Ioannou and Christodoulou, will procced with a placement of 5% of company shares (7-7.5mio shares) at EUR 2.0-2.05/share (4%-6% discount to Friday’s close) to institutional investors this Tuesday after the market close.
Trastor AGM on 28 March
Trastor will hold its AGM on 28 March, to approve among others the distribution of a EUR 0.03/share dividend for FY24 and a share capital increase of EUR 120,036,756 through the issuance of 240,073,530 new shares with a nominal value of EUR 0.50/share.
Calendar of Events
Macros
10/03/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI FEB, Industrial Production Index JAN & Trade Balance JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Import Price Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
18/04/25 | Standard & Poor’s – Greek sovereign rating review
4Q/FY24 Results Release
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International, BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
02/04/25 | Trade Estates
08/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt)
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil (Aft-mkt)
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM), Autohellas (AGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
10/04/25 | Autohellas
23/04/25 | Bank of Greece (EUR 0.672), Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
03/06/25 | Noval Property (EUR 0.043)
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14)
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (EUR 0.55)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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