ATHEX headed south on Friday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 1.15% to 2,277.60 units (FTSE Large Cap: -1.15%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.91%, Banks Index: -1.51%) and the traded value was shaped at €707.5m, up from Thursday’s €298.6m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose by 0.17% w-o-w, (FTSE Large Cap: +0.13%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.38%, Banks index: -1.31%). Ahead this week: OPAP and Noval Property FY25 Results today (amc), Optima (bef mkt), ElvalHalcor FY25 Results tomorrow, Bank of Cyprus Investor Update (also tomorrow), CENERGY Holdings, Lamda Development FY25 Results on Wednesday, CrediaBank, Viohalco FY25 Results on Thursday, DBRS Greek sovereign debt review on Friday. We expect the geopolitical developments to heavily weigh on ATHEX today.
· PPI in Industry down in January
· Retail Sales in December (ELSTAT)
· Optima bank FY25 results tomorrow before market opening
· NBG 4Q25 Results Review | Strong 4Q25 results, Reported Profit at €275m, +1% q/q and +59% y/y; beat our estimate (+3%) and consensus (+1%), extraordinary €300m payout in buyback
· OPAP 4Q25e Preview: Steady quarter despite decrease in betting and lottery activity, beating FY25 guidance
· OTE to commence 2026 share buyback programme
· Premia 2025 Results out
PPI in Industry down in January
According to Hellenic Statistical Authority, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) fell by 3.7% y-o-y in January 2026, driven by the lower prices in the energy index (-10.7% y-o-y), while higher producer prices were gauged in the intermediate goods index (+3.8% y-o-y;). In the February 2025-January 2026 period, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) dropped by 0.3% compared to the corresponding index for the period from February 2024- January 2025.
Retail Sales in December (ELSTAT)
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) rose by 8.5% y-o-y in December 2025 (and increased by 6.4% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales rose by 6.9% y-o-y and by 5.1% in volume terms. Per main store category, the turnover of the Non-food sector except automotive fuel increased by 7.5% y-o-y and sales volume were also up (7.7% y-o-y), while Automotive fuel sales decreased by 2.5% y-o-y with sales volume down by 1.2% y-o-y.
Company Headlines
Optima bank FY25 results tomorrow before market opening
Optima bank will announce its FY 2025 financial results tomorrow, 3 March 2026, before the opening of the Athens Exchange. The bank will also host its scheduled conference call with analysts on the same day at 11:00am GR time.
NBG || Buy | Target Price: €15.83 | CP: €14.355
4Q25 Results Review | Strong 4Q25 results, Reported Profit at €275m, +1% q/q and +59% y/y; beat our estimate (+3%) and consensus (+1%), extraordinary €300m payout in buyback
Optima View | NBG delivered a strong 4Q, outperforming consensus (+1%) and our estimates (+3%), with reporting PAT at €275m (+1% q-o-q, 59% y-o-y), closing the year with broadly stable profitability despite a 9% y-o-y decline in NII. In 4Q, fee and trading income supported the bottom line. Importantly, Management proposed a €1bn shareholder distribution, including a €300m share buyback, alongside a best‑in‑class ordinary payout ratio of 60%, implying DPS/DPY at €0.295/2.1% ex-interim. Looking ahead, management intends to steadily increase cash distributions, using buybacks as a complementary tool, aiming at CET1<16% by 2028. The extraordinary €300m buyback is positive, enhancing EPS and provides support to the share price, while similar actions will be assessed on an ad-hoc basis. At the end of its 3-year Business Plan, NBG targets a 17% RoTE, underpinned by NII growing at a 7% CAGR and fee income at a high single‑digit CAGR, excluding the positive potential impact of the forthcoming bancassurance agreement.
4Q25 results | Reported net profit reached €275m (+1% q‑o‑q, +59% y-o-y), 18% over Optima’s estimate and 3% above consensus. NII came in at €530m (+1% q‑o‑q, -8% y‑o‑y), in line with expectations. Fee income was strong at €133m (+15% q‑o‑q, +16% y‑o‑y), outperforming Optima and consensus estimate by 2% and 7% respectively. Operating expenses of €263m (+12% q-o-q) in line with our estimate and up 2% vs consensus, driving PPI to €429m—7% ahead of Optima and 5% of consensus. Loan provisions and other impairments stood at €55m (+20% q‑o‑q, +29% y‑o‑y), higher by 20% from consensus and in line with Optima’s estimate.
FY25 results | On a full-year basis, NII reached €2.1bn (-9% y-o-y) in line with our estimates, while fee income grew strongly to €469m (+10% y-o-y), in line with our expectations. Operating expenses higher by 7% y-o-y, as expected, while impairment charges lower by 15% y-o-y and above our estimations by 12%. Overall, net profit closed at €1.2m (flat y-o-y), better than our projections by 4%.
CC highlights |
1. Solid growth for Greek economy ahead, financed mostly by banking sector
2. Outperformance in 2025, especially in credit growth and fee income generation
3. Commitment to delivering leading shareholder returns, with any additional special distributions to be assessed on an ad‑hoc basis.
4. A new bancassurance agreement is expected to be announced in the coming weeks, not yet incorporated into the current business plan.
5. Cumulative credit expansion at €10bn over the next 3 years, driven predominantly by corporate lending, with retail loan growth expected to pick up.
6. NII trough seen in 3Q25, set to grow at a low single‑digit rate in 2026, reflecting the anticipated decline in Euribor.
7. The internal CET1 target remains at 14%, though this could be revised slightly lower over time.
8. No material impact is expected from the recent Katseli law ruling.
Quarterly P&L results
|
(€ m) |
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
QoQ |
4Q24 |
YoY |
|
vs Cons |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
530 |
527 |
1% |
575 |
-8% |
|
0% |
1% |
|
Fee income |
133 |
116 |
15% |
115 |
16% |
|
7% |
2% |
|
Core income |
663 |
642 |
3% |
689 |
-4% |
|
2% |
1% |
|
Trading & other income |
29 |
2 |
>100% |
22 |
32% |
|
93% |
>100% |
|
Total revenues |
692 |
644 |
7% |
711 |
-3% |
|
4% |
4% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-263 |
-234 |
12% |
-246 |
7% |
|
2% |
0% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
429 |
410 |
5% |
466 |
-8% |
|
5% |
7% |
|
LLPs and other impairments |
-55 |
-46 |
20% |
-63 |
-13% |
|
20% |
0% |
|
PAT before one-offs |
280 |
277 |
1% |
359 |
-22% |
1% |
3% |
|
|
Source: Bank, Optima bank estimates, Median consensus estimate |
|
|
|
|||||
Annual P&L results
|
(€ m) |
2025 |
2024 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
|
Net Interest Income |
2,136 |
2,356 |
-9% |
0% |
|
Fee income |
469 |
427 |
10% |
1% |
|
Core income |
2,605 |
2,783 |
-6% |
0% |
|
Trading & other income |
178 |
104 |
71% |
12% |
|
Total revenues |
2,783 |
2,887 |
-4% |
1% |
|
Operating Expenses |
-949 |
-884 |
7% |
0% |
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
1,834 |
2,003 |
-8% |
1% |
|
LLPs and other impairments |
-189 |
-222 |
-15% |
12% |
|
Attributable Profit |
1,160 |
1,158 |
0% |
4% |
Source: Bank, Optima bank estimates
OPAP || U/R | CP: €15.80 | TP: U/R
4Q25e Preview: Steady quarter despite decrease in betting and lottery activity, beating FY25 guidance
Stable 4Q25e performance | OPAP will release its 4Q25e results on Monday 02 March, amc, while it will hold a cc the following day (16:00 Athens time). We anticipate a flattish close to 2025, supported by strong VLT performance, an increase in Instant & Passives, and the continued outperformance of Online Casino, despite the challenging comparison against an exceptionally strong 4Q24. On the flip side Lottery and Betting showed weaker performance. According to management guidance, OpEx increased due to higher headcount, increased payroll expenses, and elevated marketing expenses. The quarter was marked by a) a decrease in online betting performance due to higher payouts and bonuses, b) a continued growth rate in Online casino with players increasing their engagement levels and betting activity and c) a steady rise in VLTs.
4Q25e P&L forecasts | In this context, we forecast revenues (GGR) of €658.2m (vs. €647.8m in 4Q24 +1.6% y-o-y), EBITDA of €225.4m (vs. €245.1m in 4Q24 -8.0% y-o-y) and net profits of €133.1m vs. €133.7m in 4Q24 (-0.5% y-o-y). On the OpEx side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees and direct costs) are seen shaping at €377.0m, accounting for 57.3% of total GGR, while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated at €128.3m (+15.2% y-o-y); accounting for 19.5% of total GGR vs. 17.2% in 4Q24 (+230pbs).Consequently, group’s EBITDA margin is estimated to decrease both q-o-q and y-o-y at 34.2% down from 37.8% in 4Q24 (-360bps). We note that we have assumed an income of €59.3m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, as well as other operating income/costs (net) from non-gaming operations of €13.2m in the quarter. For FY25e we estimate GGR of €2.41bn up by 5.1% y-o-y, EBITDA of €838.0m (+0.7% y-o-y) and net profit up by 1.8% y-o-y to €494.3m, above our previous full year estimates.
Analysis per segment | Per product category, we see sports betting GGR (retail & online) to decrease at €223.4m (-2.4% y-o-y) stemming from higher payouts and bonuses (online). Lottery revenues are estimated at €198.1m (-1.8% y-o-y), reflecting softer performance due to a limited number of consecutive jackpots. VLTs are expected to increase steadily to 100.8m (+6.3% y-o-y) benefitting from terminal enhancements, while for Instant & Passives, we forecast an increase to 32.0m (+6.1% y-o-y), driven primarily by commercial upgrades. Finally, the Online Casino operation is expected to record GGR of €104.0m in 4Q25 (+12.7% y-o-y) continuing the robust performance.
Optima view | Overall, OPAP delivered a relatively good quarter despite the though y-o-y comparables. Full year EBITDA also came in above management’s guidance supported by resilient segmental revenues. Looking ahead, investors remain focused on gaining better visibility into the combined entity and its strategic direction, particularly with respect to operational structure and integration synergies. At the same time, the sector continues to face pressure from increased regulatory risk, including higher tax rates and additional mandatory contributions leading to a decline in valuation multiples, with EV/EBITDA falling to around 7.0x compared to 8.2x one year ago. Regarding the dividend, management has already announced a €0.80 distribution following the completion of the merger with Allwyn. That said, we are setting OPAP under review, and we will revert with updated estimates and Target Price for the combined entity after the FY25 Results.
Table | P&L forecasts
|
€ m |
4Q24 |
4Q25e |
y-o-y |
FY24 |
FY25e |
y-o-y |
|
Betting (Retail+Stoiximan+Online OPAP) |
229,0 |
223,4 |
-2,4% |
746,2 |
781,2 |
4,7% |
|
Lottery (Retail + Online Loterry) |
201,7 |
198,1 |
-1,8% |
774,8 |
805,4 |
3,9% |
|
Instant & Passives |
30,1 |
32,0 |
6,1% |
105,1 |
109,1 |
3,8% |
|
VLTs |
94,8 |
100,8 |
6,3% |
344,7 |
362,9 |
5,3% |
|
Online casino (Online OPAP + Stoiximan) |
92,3 |
104,0 |
12,7% |
325,3 |
355,5 |
9,3% |
|
Revenues |
647,8 |
658,2 |
1,6% |
2.296,2 |
2.414,1 |
5,1% |
|
GGR tax & levies |
(204,7) |
(208,0) |
1,6% |
(726,1) |
(766,1) |
5,5% |
|
Net gaming revenue |
443,1 |
450,2 |
1,6% |
1.570,1 |
1.648,1 |
5,0% |
|
Agents fees |
(115,6) |
(119,7) |
3,6% |
(418,6) |
(435,4) |
4,0% |
|
Other operating income |
36,9 |
28,2 |
-23,7% |
115,3 |
103,1 |
-10,6% |
|
Other income related to the new lottery/betting concession |
60,2 |
59,3 |
-1,6% |
235,0 |
235,4 |
0,2% |
|
Other operating costs |
(17,9) |
(15,0) |
-16,3% |
(62,1) |
(54,2) |
-12,8% |
|
Direct costs |
(50,3) |
(49,3) |
-2,0% |
(181,7) |
(191,0) |
5,1% |
|
Opex |
(111,4) |
(128,3) |
15,2% |
(425,9) |
(468,1) |
9,9% |
|
EBITDA |
245,1 |
225,4 |
-8,0% |
832,0 |
838,0 |
0,7% |
|
% of GGR |
37,8% |
34,2% |
-360bps |
36,2% |
34,7% |
-150bps |
|
Depreciation |
(36,4) |
(35,7) |
-1,8% |
(144,9) |
(139,4) |
-3,8% |
|
EBIT |
208,7 |
189,7 |
-9,1% |
687,1 |
698,6 |
1,7% |
|
Net financial expense |
(14,2) |
(5,3) |
-62,6% |
(9,3) |
(16,2) |
75,2% |
|
EBT |
194,5 |
184,4 |
-5,2% |
677,8 |
682,4 |
0,7% |
|
Income tax |
(55,1) |
(49,2) |
-10,7% |
(178,0) |
(178,7) |
0,4% |
|
EAT |
139,4 |
135,2 |
-3,1% |
499,8 |
503,6 |
0,8% |
|
Minorities |
(5,7) |
(2,1) |
-63,4% |
(14,0) |
(9,3) |
-33,4% |
|
EAT ex-minorities |
133,7 |
133,1 |
-0,5% |
485,8 |
494,3 |
1,8% |
Source: Optima bank research
OTE to commence 2026 share buyback programme
Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A. (OTE) announced that, in line with its 2026 Shareholder Remuneration Policy, it will begin its own shares buyback program (c. €177m) on 2 March 2026, with execution running until 18 January 2027.
Premia 2025 Results out
Premia Properties announced a strong set of 2025 Results, with Revenue up by 67.4% to €37.5m, EBITDA at €57.0m from €37.1m ago, EBITDA adjusted (excluding revaluation gains) at €24.1m, up by 70.9% y-o-y and pretax profits at €45.5m from €40.9m a year ago (+11.2% y-o-y). Funds from operation stood at €9.8m (from €4.1m in 2024) and investment property reached €626.4m, up by €195.5m y-t-d. Finally, NAV dropped to €2.22/share (from €2.08 on 31/12/2024), at a 38.1% discount on Friday’s close.
Calendar of Events
02/03/26 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI FEB
03/03/26 | Unemployment Rate JAN (ELSTAT)
04/03/26 | Bank Deposits & Loans Interest Rates JAN (BoG)
06/03/26 | 4Q:25 GDP (provisional data) & 2025 GDP (estimates) (ELSTAT)
06/03/26 | DBRS – Greek sovereign rating review
4Q/FY25 Results Release
02/03/26 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Bank of Greece (Aft-mkt), Noval Property (Aff-mkt)
03/03/26 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
04/03/26 | Cenergy Holdings, LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
05/03/26 | CrediaBank (Aft-mkt), Viohalco
11/03/26 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)
17/03/26 | Trade Estates REIC (Bef-mkt)
18/03/26 | Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/26 | PPC (Aft-mkt), TITAN, Motodynamics (Aft-mkt)
23/03/26 | AUSTRIACARD (Aft-mkt)
24/03/26 | Athens International Airport (Aft-mkt)
30/03/26 | BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)
31/03/26 | METLEN, Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port Authority (Aft-mkt)
07/04/26 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)
20/04/26 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc, Sunrise Mezz Plc
21/04/26 | Qualco Group (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
02/03/26 | Real Consulting (EGM)
16/03/26 | CrediaBank (EGM), Y/KNOT Invest (EGM)
20/03/26 | Trastor REIC (AGM)
15/04/26 | Athens International Airport (AGM)
21/04/26 | Piraeus Bank (AGM)
22/04/26 | Autohellas (AGM)
28/04/26 | Eurobank (AGM), BriQ Properties (AGM)
30/04/26 | National Bank (AGM)
05/05/26 | Optima bank (AGM)
15/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/26 | METLEN (AGM)
12/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM)
26/06/26 | Alpha Bank (AGM)
23/03/26 | JUMBO (extraordinary cash distribution €0.50/share)
25/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (final €0.50/share)
23/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (€ 0.11/share)
Capital Markets Day
05/03/26 | Piraeus Bank
09/03/26 | CrediaBank
Investor Update 2026
03/03/26 | Bank of Cyprus
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