Greek Market Watch: Hellenic Exchanges, Piraeus Financial Holdings, Titan Cement, Eurobank, METLEN, Motor Oil, OPAP, OTE

Today’s Headlines

·        Hellenic Exchanges 2Q224 results review | A strong quarter

·        Piraeus Financial Holdings 2Q2024 Preview | Another strong quarter, reiterate Buy  

·        Titan Cement 2Q/1H24e Results Preview | Strong 1st Half, driven by US ops, points to another record year

·        Eurobank Financial Holdings acceptance period for Hellenic ends today

·        METLEN (Mytilineos) completes the acquisition of Volterra (expected)

·        Motor Oil Share buyback

·        OPAP Share buyback

·        OTE Share buyback

Market Comment

ATHEX headed south yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by just 0.08% at 1,468.01 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.01%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.39% Banks Index: -1.10%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 67.2m, down from Friday’s EUR 143.2m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European stock markets today, with Hellenic Exchanges in focus.

Company Headlines 

Hellenic Exchanges || BUY | CP: EUR 4.7950 | TP: EUR 6.40

2Q224 results review | A strong quarter

Optima View | Hellenic Exchanges delivered a strong set of results that beat our estimate in terms of EBITDA and bottom line, on the back of better than expected cost containment. On top of that, the company generated strong FCF and increased further its net cash position. Management will host a CC today at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.40, implying a 33% upside potential. 

source: Company, Optima bank research

2Q204 P&L KPIs | Revenues came in at EUR 13.3m (+18% y-o-y), 3% higher than our estimate. Trading revenues rose by 13% y-o-y and post-trading revenues by 18% y-o-y, accounting for 60% of total revenues. Listing revenues also surged by 20% y-o-y, data services revenues by 20% y-o-y and IT and digital services by 17% y-o-y. EBITDA reached EUR 6.5m (+51% y-o-y), 16% above our estimate of EUR 5.6m, thanks to better than expected cost control (lower personnel and maintenance expenses). EBITDA margin widened to 48.7% from 38.0% a year earlier. Net profit reached EUR 5.0m (+55% y-o-y), beating our estimate of EUR 4.3m. Net margin also widened to 37.9% in 2Q24 vs. 28.7% a year earlier.    

1H2024 P&L KPIs | Revenues reached EUR 26.8m (+17% y-o-y), slightly above our call of EUR 26.3m. Trading revenues rose by 9% y-o-y and post-trading revenues by 14% y-o-y, accounting for 62% of total revenues. Listing revenues also surged by 23% y-o-y, data services revenues by 18% y-o-y and IT and digital services by 29% y-o-y. EBITDA came in at EUR 12.8m (+34% y-o-y), beating our estimate of EUR 11.9m, with the respective margin at 47.9% vs. 41.6% in 1H23. Net profit was shaped at EUR 9.4m (+43% y-o-y) and net margin widened to 35.0% from 28.7% in 1H23.

1H24 Cash Flow | FCF rose by 11% y-o-y to EUR 10.4m on higher OpCF of EUR 12.5m (+21% y-o-y) due to higher EBITDA and despite higher CapEx (+131% y-o-y).

Net Cash position | Net cash increased by EUR 6.0m q-o-q to EUR 74.2m or to EUR 1.23 per share vs. EUR 1.13 in 1Q24, accounting for 26% of market cap.  

Piraeus Financial Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 3.7780 | TP: EUR 5.50

2Q2024 Preview | Another strong quarter, reiterate Buy  

Preview | Piraeus Financial Holdings is set to report 2Q/1H24 results tomorrow at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 15:00 Athens/13:00 London Time. We anticipate another strong quarter on the back of higher fee income, lower OpEx and flat loan loss provisions. NII is expected to be slightly lower on a sequential basis but higher y-o-y. We also anticipate net credit expansion to remain positive, deposit volumes to accelerate q-o-q and asset quality dynamics to be flattish.

1H2024 results | We estimate that reported net profit will reach EUR 514.2m (+72% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 513.8m on the back of higher NII (+9% y-o-y), fee income (+12% y-o-y) lower OpEx (-2% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions (-71% y-o-y).

2Q24 Results | We project reported net profit to reach EUR 281.5m (+21% q-o-q, +135% y-o-y) in 2Q24, in line with consensus estimate of EUR 281.0m. Overall, we anticipate bottom line to be burdened by one-off costs of EUR 5.0m. Thus, we expect normalized net profit (excluding one-off items) to stand at EUR 286.5m (+3% q-o-q, +20% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 287.0m. In more detail, we estimate NII to shape at EUR 505.3m (-2% q-o-q, +4% y-o-y), slightly lower than consensus estimate of EUR 509.0m. We also project fee income to stand at EUR 150.0m (+3% q-o-q, +6% y-o-y), supported by positive net credit expansion and market conditions in the quarter. Thus, core income is expected to reach EUR 655.3m (-1% q-o-q, +4% y-o-y). We also expect non-core revenues to be zero against a loss of 71.1m in 1Q24. All in all, we anticipate total revenues to shape at EUR 655.3m (+11% q-o-q, -1% y-o-y), lower than consensus estimate of EUR 665.0m. On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to slip to EUR 197.6m (-2% q-o-q, -2% y-o-y), lower than consensus estimate of EUR 204.0m. Our estimate incorporates a one-off cost of EUR 5.0m for the quarter. We also project LLPs to shape at EUR 58.9m (+1% q-o-q, -79% y-o-y), assuming an organic CoR of 64bps for the quarter.

Optima View | The stock is trading 0.70x P/TBV24E, at a material discount of 39% to European banks, despite the higher RoaTBV generation at 14.9% vs. 13.4% of EU peers. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 5.50/share, implying a 38% potential upside.

Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 32.35 | TP EUR 33.90

2Q/1H24e Results Preview | Strong 1st Half, driven by US ops, points to another record year

2Q24e results preview | Titan Cement International (TCI) is scheduled to release its 2Q24e results tomorrow, before the market opening. We expect turnover of EUR 672.1m (+4.8% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 163.8m (+22.3% y-o-y) and net income at EUR 89.4m (assuming no one-offs). In 1H24e terms, we expect turnover of EUR 1,295.8m (+5.4% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 273.6m (+13.4% y-o-y, Consensus estimate at EUR 267.6m) and net income at EUR 141.2m (+27.3% y-o-y, Consensus at EUR 137.6m). The Company will hold a conference call also on 31 July (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). 

Eurobank Financial Holdings acceptance period for Hellenic ends today

The acceptance period of the takeover bid for the shareholders of Hellenic Bank (EUR 2.56/share) ends today. In other news, Eurobank is scheduled to report 2Q/1H24 results tomorrow, post-market close.  

METLEN (Mytilineos) completes the acquisition of Volterra (expected)

METLEN (Mytilineos) announced yesterday as expected the completion of the acquisition of Volterra, a small electricity supplier which commands c.1.8% market share in Greece. 

Motor Oil Share buyback

The company announced that it purchased on 26 July 18,000 own shares at an average price of EUR 23.156. The company now holds 2,722,783 shares or 2.46% of the total share capital. 

OPAP Share buyback

The company announced that it purchased on 25-26 July 17,900 own shares at an average price of EUR 15.671. The company now holds 8,922,081 shares or 2.41% of the total share capital. 

OTE Share buyback

The company announced that it purchased on 22-26 July 63,905 own shares at an average price of EUR 14.310. The company now holds 1,715,012 shares or 0.416% of the total share capital. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

30/07/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry JUN & Economic Sentiment Indicator JUL

31/07/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade MAY & Unemployment Rate JUN

2Q/1H24 Results Release

30/07/24 | Entersoft (trading update) (Aft-mkt), MIG (Aft-mkt)

31/07/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement

01/08/24 | Optima bank, National Bank of Greece (Bef-mkt)

02/08/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (08:00)

06/08/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)

07/08/24 | OTE (Bef-mkt), Coca-Cola HBC

09/08/24 | BriQ Properties, Intercontintal International

29/08/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings

02/09/24 | Sarantis

03/09/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)

04/09/24 | Ideal Holdings (Flash Note) (Bef-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)

10/09/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)

11/09/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)

12/09/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda

17/09/24 | Noval Property

18/09/24 | Cenergy Holdings

19/09/24 | Viohalco, Attica Bank, Alpha Real Estate, Lavipharm

EGM / AGM

31/07/24 | Alpha Real Estate (AGM), Yalco (AGM)

02/08/24 | Athens Medical Center (EGM)

05/08/24 | Mediterra (EGM)

12/08/24 | Ble Kedros (AGM)

20/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co. (AGM)

04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM)

06/09/24 | Domiki Kritis (AGM)

10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

01/08/24 | Creta Plastics (EUR 0.5001157168)

05/08/24 | Alpha Real Estate (EUR 0.26)

19/08/24 | Ble Kedros

22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)

27/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co.

29/08/24 | Real Consulting (EUR 0.04)

09/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (EUR 0.058)

12/09/24 | Evrofarma (EUR 0.05)

17/09/24 | Epsilon Net

Ex-Capital Return

26/08/24 | Biokarpet (EUR 0.02)

28/08/24 | GEK TERNA (EUR 0.25)

12/09/24 | Unibios (EUR 0.02)