Greek Market Watch: HELLENiQ ENERGY, Alpha Bank, National Bank, TITAN, METLEN, OTE, LAMDA Development

Market Comment

ATHEX headed south yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.80% to 1,998.38 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.79%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.10%, Banks Index: -1.05%) and the traded value was shaped at €282.1m, up from Wednesday’s €198.7m. We expect the international risk-off sentiment to weigh on ATHEX, with stock picking in place today. 

Today’s Headlines

·         EXXON Mobil partners with HELLENiQ ENERGY and ENERGEAN in the Block 2 concession

·         Alpha Bank 3Q25 Results Review | 3Q25 results, to distribute interim DPS of €111m in December, in line with our estimate

·         NBG 3Q25 Results Review: Broadly in-line, small Bottom-line beat, minor Guidance Upgrades

·         TITAN Group in exclusive negotiations to acquire Vracs de L’Estuaire cementitious business in France

·         Titan Group 3Q25: Strong Results driven by US and SEE, above EBITDA and Bottom line; On track to deliver record-breaking profitability in 2025e

·         METLEN presents the new management team and corporate structure

·         OTE agrees to acquire TERNA FIBER, an Ultra-Fast Broadband PPP

·         LAMDA Development launches the issuance of a new 7-year bond 

Company Headlines

EXXON Mobil partners with HELLENiQ ENERGY and ENERGEAN in the Block 2 concession

HELLENiQ ENERGY together with ExxonMobil and Energean, has signed a Farm-In agreement regarding the participation of ExxonMobil in the Block 2 concession, which is located in the northwestern Ionian Sea. ExxonMobil will acquire a 60% interest in the concession, Energean shall retain a 30% interest, (from 75%) and HE will keep a 10% stake (from 25%). The consortium is expected to reach a Final Investment Decision for potential drilling activities in the near future. According to press reports, the test drilling should be expected not earlier than 2027. 

Alpha Bank || NEUTRAL | CP: EUR 3.488 | TP: U/R

3Q25 Results Review | 3Q25 results, to distribute interim DPS of €111m in December, in line with our estimate

Alpha Bank reported earlier 3Q results, broadly in line with optima and consensus estimates. Management will host a conference call today at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time. In a snap view: Net profit came in at €186.7m in 3Q25 (-36% q-o-q, +12% y-o-y) we remind that 2Q25 results were bolstered by a one-off gain of €149.9m, in line with Optima estimate of €184.2m and below consensus estimate of €192.0m. Management intends to distribute EUR 111m interim dividend in December (€c4.8/share, DY: ~1.4%) and upgraded its EPS expansion for 2025-2027e. Net interest income reached €402.2m in 3Q25 (+1% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y), on spot with Optima and below consensus estimate. Fee income came in at €119.7m (-2% q-o-q, +18% y-o-y) in 3Q25, 4% above Optima and 2% above consensus estimate. Pre provision income came in at €309.5m (-8% q-o-q, -12% y-o-y) in 3Q25, 6% below Optima and 7% below consensus estimate. Loan loss provisions stood at €45.4m (+14% q-o-q) in 3Q25, below expectations.

(EUR m)		3Q25		2Q25		QoQ		3Q24		YoY		vs. Optima		vs. Cons				Optima 3Q25e		Consensus 3Q25e
Net Interest Income		402.2		399.3		1%		434.2		-7%		0%		-1%				404.0		406.0
Fee income		119.7		121.6		-2%		101.4		18%		4%		2%				114.6		117.0
Core income		521.9		520.9		0%		535.6		-3%		1%		0%				518.6		523.0
Non-core Revenues		1.5		30.3		-95%		27.2		-94%		-95%		-95%				29.4		32.0
Total revenues		523.4		551.2		-5%		562.8		-7%		-4%		-6%				548.0		555.0
Operating Expenses		(213.9)		(214.2)		0%		(210.7)		1%		-2%		-3%				(217.9)		(221.0)
Pre Provision Profit		309.5		337.0		-8%		352.0		-12%		-6%		-7%				330.1		334.0
LLPs		(45.4)		(39.7)		14%		(53.1)		-14%		-3%		-1%				(47.0)		(46.0)
Net Profit		186.7		293.7		-36%		166.7		12%		1%		-3%				184.2		192.0

source: Company, Optima Bank estimates, Median Consensus estimates-Company 

NBG 3Q25 Results Review: Broadly in-line, small Bottom-line beat, minor Guidance Upgrades

Optima View | NBG delivered a solid set of 3Q25 results, broadly in line with expectations. The Bank remains well on track to meet full-year guidance, supported by a lower cost of risk at 42bps in 9M25, alongside upside potential in fee income and a strong outlook for 4Q25e. National Bank of Greece is trading 1.29x P/TBV26e, at a small premium with EU banks.

Guidance Upgrade | Management reiterated its EPS25 target to c.  €1.40/share or PAT before one-offs at c. €1.28bn and normalized ROTE to >15% (in 9M25 ROTE at 15.6%):

§  Upside risk on fee income

§  Reiterated cost of risk at <45bps

§  Net credit expansion of c. €3.0bn from €>2.5bn previously

§  Reaffirmed NIM target of >280bps and NII target of €>2.1bn

Interim dividend | NBG intends to distribute an interim dividend in cash of €200m (€0.221/share, DY: 1.75%, ex-date: 10/11, payable on 14 November); final payout ratio to be announced with the 4Q25 Results.

Excess capital | We estimate that excess capital stood at €1.9bn in 9M25. According to management, the potential uses will be a) higher payout ratio (>60%), b) incremental organic growth, c) international syndicated loans, d) reperforming assets and e) strategic optionality for capital return to shareholders, while management highlighted that there is no potential acquisitions this time in Greek Market.

3Q25 results | Reported net profit came in at €274.2m (-12% q-o-q, -13% y-o-y), slightly above Optima estimate of €269.7m and consensus estimate of €262.0m. NII was shaped at €27.0m (-1% q-o-q, -11% y-o-y), in line with expectations. NIM narrowed by 2bps q-o-q to 2.80%. Fee income stood at €116.0m (+1% q-o-q, +8% y-o-y), in line with Optima and consensus estimates. Total revenues reached €645.0m (-8% q-o-q, -10% y-o-y). OpEx stood at €234.0m (+4% q-o-q, +8% y-o-y). PPI came in at €410.0m (-14% q-o-q, -18% y-o-y). 

9M25 results | Net profit marginally fell by 2% y-o-y to €970.0m, on lower NII (-10% y-o-y) and higher OpEx (+7% y-o-y). On the positive side, fee income rose by 7% y-o-y and non-core revenues accelerated to €150.0m from €81.8m in 9M24.  

Asset quality | Group NPEs remained stable q-o-q at €962m, with Greek NPEs at €896m (€-7m q-o-q). The Group NPE ratio remained stable q-o-q at 2.5% and the NPE cash coverage widened to a record 101.4% from 99.8% in 2Q25.  

Capital | Tangible equity reached €8.3bn and TBVPS stood at €9.2 vs. €8.9 in 2Q25. RoaTBV narrowed to 14.6% from 15.7% in 2Q25. FL CET1 also widened by 10bps q-o-q to 19.0%, including 60% dividend payout accrual for 2025. RWAs slightly increased to € 38.2bn vs. €38.07bn in 2Q25.

Balance sheet | Net credit expansion stood at €0.3bn in 3Q25 and €1.8bn in 9M25. Group performing loans grew by €0.3bn q-o-q to €34.7bn and deposits rose by €0.1bn q-o-q to €58.3bn, with LDR at 64.1% vs. 62.9% in 2Q25. Time deposits reduced by €404m q-o-q to €c9.1bn and accounted for 15.5% against 17.2% in 2Q25. Finally, investment securities increased by €907m q-o-q to €20.6bn or 26.6% of assets.

Conference call highlights | NBG management states in the cc the following:

·      NII is expected to be up in 4Q25e and will strongly recover from 1Q26e onwards

·      Management is confident to exceed credit expansion to close €3bn

·      In 4Q25e management will announce the final payout ratio

·      There are no M&A opportunities in Greece

·      The bank is converting time deposits into AuM while deposits continue to grow driven by core deposits

(EUR m)		3Q25		2Q25		QoQ		3Q24		YoY		vs Optima		vs Cons				Optima 3Q25e		Cons 3Q25e		Optima vs. Cons
Net Interest Income		527.0		531.2		-1%		589.3		-11%		0%		0%				528.6		527.0		0.3%
Fee income		116.0		115.3		1%		107.6		8%		0%		-1%				116.0		117.0		-0.9%
Core income		642.0		646.5		-1%		696.9		-8%		0%		0%				644.6		644.0		0.1%
Non-core Revenues		3.0		52.7		-94%		17.7		-83%		-71%		-63%				10.4		8.0		30.0%
Total revenues		645.0		699.2		-8%		714.6		-10%		-2%		-1%				655.0		652.0		0.5%
Operating Expenses		(234.0)		(224.6)		4%		(217.3)		8%		3%		2%				(226.3)		(229.0)		-1.2%
Pre Provision Profit		410.0		474.6		-14%		497.3		-18%		-4%		-3%				428.7		423.0		1.3%
LLPs & Other impairments		(45.0)		(45.9)		-2%		(51.6)		-13%		8%		7%				(41.8)		(42.1)		-0.7%
Reported net profit		274.0		310.2		-12%		314.7		-13%		2%		5%				269.0		262.0		2.7%

source: Optima Research, Company, Company-Median consensus estimates

(EUR m)		9M25		9M24		YoY
Net Interest Income		1,606.0		1,781.5		-10%
Fee income		336.0		312.7		7%
Core income		1,943.0		2,094.2		-7%
Non-core Revenues		150.0		81.8		83%
Total revenues		2,092.0		2,176.0		-4%
Operating Expenses		(685.0)		(638.5)		7%
Pre Provision Profit		1,407.0		1,537.5		-8%
LLP and other impairments		(134.0)		(158.7)		-16%
Reported Net Profit		970.0		984.9		-2%

source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate

TITAN Group in exclusive negotiations to acquire Vracs de L’Estuaire cementitious business in France

TITAN Group has entered into exclusive negotiations to acquire Vracs de L’Estuaire, a Company with state-of-the-art facilities, including a grinding plant located at the port of Le Havre in Northern France. The facility is ideally positioned to serve one of the largest and fastest-growing markets in Europe and provides an additional platform for serving the customers with the Group’s low carbon cement and pozzolanic based alternative cementitious materials. The closing of the transaction remains subject to customary legal procedures and is expected in 1Q26. 

Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 39.30 | TP EUR 50.50

Titan Group 3Q25: Strong Results driven by US and SEE, above EBITDA and Bottom line; On track to deliver record-breaking profitability in 2025e

Titan Cement reported 2Q25 Revenue of €684m, up by 3.4% y-o-y, EBITDA of €186.6m, beating Optima and Consensus (Optima at €165.1m, Consensus at €173.5m), up by 13.0% y-o-y and Net Profits at €102.4m, up by 25.0% y-o-y and 26.7% higher compared to Optima. Liquidity position remains solid with net debt at €302m, bolstered by the proceeds from the IPO of Titan America and Adocim’s divestment. Leverage ratio remains low at 0.5x EBITDA, notwithstanding the €3/share dividend paid in July. In 9M25 terms, TITAN reported Group Revenue of €2,012.5m, up by 1.4%, EBITDA adj. €473.5m, also up by 8.3% and Net Profits (excluding one-offs) at €222.7m, down by just 0.8%. The company said that the outlook for the rest of year is positive, supported by solid volume growth across products, resilient pricing, cost initiatives, and efficiency gains. Note that the Company will hold on November 11th investors’ day to present the updated three-year business plan.

3Q/9M25 Results Review

EUR m		3Q24		3Q25		Y-o-Y change		Optima		Actual vs. Optima		Consensus		Actual vs. Consensus		9Μ24		9Μ25		Y-o-Y change
Turnover		661.6		684.0		3.4%		686.0		-0.3%		671.8		1.8%		1,984.6		2,012.6		1.4%
Greece		105.5		126.8		20.2%		125.0		1.4%						324.0		384.8		18.8%
USA		376.7		375.9		-0.2%		379.0		-0.8%						1,151.3		1,129.1		-1.9%
SEE		111.4		115.9		4.0%		118.0		-1.8%						326.8		313.1		-4.2%
E.MED		68.0		65.4		-3.8%		64.0		2.2%						182.5		185.6		1.7%
EBITDA		155.7		186.6		19.9%		165.1		13.0%		173.5		7.6%		437.1		473.5		8.3%
EBITDA margin		23.53%		27.29%		375		24.07%		322		25.83%		146		22.02%		23.53%		150
Greece		13.5		17.9		32.4%		15.9		12.4%						45.8		56.6		23.5%
USA		84.7		98.8		16.6%		87.6		12.8%						248.7		257.5		3.5%
SEE		46.9		48.0		2.3%		50.5		-5.0%						128.3		114.5		-10.8%
E.MED		10.6		22.0		107.5%		11.1		98.2%						14.3		45.0		214.7%
Net income		75.9		102.4		34.9%		80.8		26.7%		86.6		18.2%		237.8		170.7		-28.2%
Net Income adj.		81.9		102.4		25.0%		80.8		26.7%						224.6		222.7		-0.8%

Source: Optima, Titan Cement

Net income (adj.) excudes one-off expenses for the US IPO and the accounting loss from the Adocim disposal

Consensus estimates are based on feedback from 12 analysts

Greece: In Greece, the domestic market remained robust with Cement consumption increased by ca. 10%, with Group cement sales outperforming the market, offsetting lower exports to the US. Consequently, 3Q25 sales rose by 20.2% y-o-y to €126.8m, resulting in a 32.4% EBITDA jump to 17.9m from €13.5m a year ago.

US: In the US, Titan delivered a strong 3Q25 performance driven by operational efficiencies, improved capabilities arising from recent targeted investments, supported by sustained demand from infrastructure and private nonresidential end markets as well as improved year-over-year weather conditions, which counterbalanced the weaker USD vis a vis the €. In this context, US sales dropped marginally by 0.2% y-o-y to €375.9m in 3Q25, while EBITDA jumped by 16.6% y-o-y to €98.8m, implying a 380bps margin expansion.

SEE Europe: In Southeast Europe the Group grew its sales volumes in most markets during the quarter and sustained sector-leading EBITDA margins and profitability, supported by ongoing cost optimization and decarbonization initiatives that continue to deliver efficiency gains. That said, regional turnover was up by 4.0% y-o-y to €115.9m in 3Q25, while lower energy-related costs resulted in segmental EBITDA of €48.0m, up by 2.3% y-o-y.

EMED: In the East Mediterranean, Egypt continued on the growth path started this year, capitalizing on both robust domestic demand and its growing role as a key exporter. Against this backdrop, turnover dropped by 3.8% y-o-y to €65.4m, while EBITDA in 3Q25 was up by >2x y-o-y to €22.0m. Note that turkey had no contribution in the 3Q25 regional performance following the Adocim sale earlier this year.

Below the EBITDA line: Contribution from participations (mainly Brazil JV) in 9M25 was solid at €3.8m from €0.8m in 9M24, depreciation expenses stood at €128.1m (+9.5% y-o-y), financial expenses (including FX impact) were up by 15% y-o-y to €33.2m (from €28.8m a year ago), minorities (mainly to the Titan America minority shareholders) stood at €16.6m while the effective tax rate shaped at 29%. Group’s Operating Free Cash Flow reached €307m IN 9M25 compared to €275m in 9M24, CapEx stood at €185m versus €181m, while Group net debt closed at €302m (Net Debt/EBITDA at 0.5x), down by €320m y-t-d and up by only €65m q-o-q, despite the generous dividend distribution of €3/share.

Conference call highlights-limited news flow ahead of the Investors’ day:

1.   Completed three acquisitions in Greece and is in the exclusive negotiations to acquire Vracs De L’Estuaire in France

2.   positive outlook for 2H25e, across the regions with solid order book and also easier comparables compared to 4Q24

3.   More details on the medium-term outlook to be provided in the upcoming investors’ day on 11th November

 Comment: The Group has delivered a robust quarter, above our and consensus estimates, with solid demand, market share gains and pricing across the regions offsetting the lower exports to the USA and the weak $/€. In our view, the positive outlook for the remainder of the year which points to another full year record high profitability, the updated business plan which will be presented next week and also the attractive valuation (P/E adj. for 2025e at 8.8x, EV/EBITDA AT 5.7x), offer an attractive entry point for the stock. That said, we reiterate our Buy recommendation on the stock with the Target Price unchanged at EUR 50.50/share. 

METLEN presents the new management team and corporate structure

In a special event held yesterday, METLEN presented the new management team and its new corporate structure to support its medium-term target of doubling its scale and profitability in the medium term (€1.9-2.08bn in EBITDA terms). Key points of the presentation:

·       Mr Evangelos Mytilineos steps down from Group CEO and remains Executive BoD Chairman

·       Mr Gavalas is appointed new Group CEO

·       Mrs Ioannoun is appointed Group CFO, replacing Mrs Kontogianni

The five Energy business units are merged into two:

·       Former M Renewables and MPower projects are merged into Renewables and energy transition platform, with Nikos Papapetrou Chief Executive Director

·       Former M Energy customer solutions and M Energy generation Bus are merged into Integrated Utility BU with Mr. Giannakopoulos appointed Chief Executive Director

·       Energy Supply and trading with Mr Kanellopoulos Chief Executive Director

Metals-Defense sctor gains further momentum, five plants already operating, another acquisition is approaching completion

·         Integrated Aluminium Business Unit and critical Raw Materials and circular Metals are reporting to Mr. Stefanidis, Chief Executive Director

·         Former Metallurgical Defense Equipment is upgraded to M Technologies, as METLEN is expanding its footprint in the broader spectrum of the defense sector and defense technology 

METKA Construction and concessions: The management reiterated its target to proceed with the listing of the subsidiary on ATHEX in the next year

METKA Construction is directed by Mr Benroubi

METKA Concessions is directed by Mr Karaindros 

Optima view: the new corporate structure crystallizes the Group’s strategic targets: expansion in the defense and technology sector, entrance in the value added critical raw materials as Gallium (scandium and Germanium could also follow), the integration of the energy utility business with market share gains, the acceleration of the Renewables (including storage) asset rotation plan and the further growth of the METKA subsidiaries, which are gaining a critical mass to be listed as public company. Finally, the addition of Mr. Gavalas to the top management team, the continuation of Mr. Mytilineos as Group Chairman, the lower average age of the top management and the new organizational structure improve in our view the Group’s corporate Governance qualities. 

OTE agrees to acquire TERNA FIBER, an Ultra-Fast Broadband PPP

OTE entered into binding agreements for the acquisition of the special purpose vehicle TERNA FIBER, a 50.1%/49.9% Joint Venture between GEKTERNA and ADMIE’s GRID TELECOM which has been awarded the “Ultra-Fast Broadband Infrastructure” project for the development and operation of infrastructure that will provide ultra-high-speed Internet access in four out of seven geographic lots, covering 480,000 households and businesses in semi-urban and rural areas of Greece.  

LAMDA Development launches the issuance of a new 7-year bond

Lamda Development announced yesterday its intention to issue a new 7-year bond of up to €500m and lo less than €400m, which will be traded on ATHEX. Subscription period will commence on 12 November and will be concluded on 14 November, the yield range will be announced on 11 November, the final yield will be determined on 14 November and the commencement of trading of the new bond is expected on 19 November. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

07/11/25 | Trade Balance SEP (ELSTAT)

07/11/25 | Scope Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review

10/11/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI OCT (ELSTAT), Industrial Production SEP (ELSTAT)

14/11/25 | Import Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)

14/11/25 | Fitch Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review

Market

24/11/25 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)

3Q/9M25 Results Release

07/11/25 | Alpha Bank (08:00 GR Time)

11/11/25 | Optima bank, Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt)

13/11/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Austriacard Holdings

17/11/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Lavipharm (Aft-mkt)

18/11/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Bef-mkt)

19/11/25 | Cenergy Holdings, Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), Quest Holdings (Aft-mkt)

20/11/25 | CrediaBank, Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt)

21/11/25 | Premia Properties

24/11/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)

25/11/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)

27/11/25 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)

EGM / AGM

07/11/25 | Intracom Holdings (EGM)

13/11/25 | Frigoglass (EGM)

20/11/25 | E.In.S. (EGM)

03/12/25 | Eurobank Holdings (EGM)

Ex-Dividend

10/11/25 | National Bank of Greece (interim €0.221/share)

01/12/25 | Alpha Bank (interim €0.0481668788/share)

02/12/25 | CNL CAPITAL (interim €0.15/share)

22/12/25 | ELLAKTOR (interim €0.50/share)

23/12/25 | Motor Oil (interim €0.35/share)