Optima: Greek Market Watch: IMF, CPI, Industrial production, Eurobank, PPC, OTE, Cenergy, Motor Oil, Trade Estates, Aegean Airlines

Market Comment

ATHEX rebounded in a relief rally yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 4.19% at 1,157.85 units (FTSE Large Cap: +4.80%, FTSE Mid Cap: +2.80%, Banks Index: +6.81%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 119.6m, down from Monday’s EUR 204.0m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today, eyeing the international markets. 

Today’s Headlines

·         IMF releases autumn World Economic Outlook

·         Greek CPI up by 1.6% y-o-y in September (ELSTAT)

·         Industrial production down in August (ELSTAT)

·         Eurobank to cancel HFSF shares – Press

·         PPC confirms bidding for Kotsovolos

·         OTE’s consortium took over EOPPY digital transformation – Press

·         CENERGY secures two export cable contracts with a combined length of 256km.

·         Motor Oil EGM today

·         Fourlis’ TRADE ESTATES acquires Smart Park from REDS

·         Aegean Airlines share buyback 

Macro Headlines 

IMF releases autumn World Economic Outlook

IMF in its Autumn World Economic Outlook, expects Greek GDP growth to remain robust at +2.5% in 2023e (a minor downgrade compared to the previous estimate of 2.5%) and at 2% in 2024e (upgrading the previous estimate of 1.5% in 2024e). With respect to inflation, the fund raised slightly upwards its 2023e forecast to 4.1% (from 4.0% previously), expecting to decelerate to 2.8% in 2024e. Finally, IMF expects unemployment rate in Greece to drop to 9.3% and to 8% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

 Greek CPI up by 1.6% y-o-y in September (ELSTAT)

According to ELSTAT, CPI (national index) increased by +1.6% y-o-y and by +1.8% m-o-m in September 2023, while the annual average rate of CPI increased by +4.7% over the trailing 12 months. The sectors with the most notable y-o-y movements were clothing & footwear (+6.2%) and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+9.4%). Additionally, the harmonized CPI in September 2023 rose by 2.4% y-o-y and by 1.9% m-o-m. 

Industrial production down in August (ELSTAT)

According to ELSTAT, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) dropped by 0.5% y-o-y in August 2023, due to the drop by 7.0% YoY in the Electricity Supply index. In January-August 2023, Greek industrial production rose by 0.7% y-o-y. 

Company Headlines 

Eurobank to cancel HFSF shares – Press

Press reports (mononews) indicate that Eurobank aims to cancel the 52,080,673 common purchased from HFSF. The move has a marginal positive impact as we estimate that it would increase our EPS23e and TBVPS23e by 1.4% to EUR 0.34 and EUR 1.91 respectively. We reiterate our positive stance on the stock. 

PPC confirms bidding for Kotsovolos

Following relevant press reports, PPC also confirmed yesterday that it submitted a binding offer for the retailer Kotsovolos. 

OTE’s consortium took over EOPPY digital transformation – Press

Reportedly (mononews), the consortium of OTE-Unisystems-Netcompany Intrasoft took over the digital transformation of EOPPY. The project has a value of EUR 37m and a duration of 30 months.   

CENERGY secures two export cable contracts with a combined length of 256km.

Cenergy Holdings announced that Hellenic Cables, its cables segment, has formed a consortium with Jan De Nul Group to design, manufacture, transport and install a package of four 220 kV export cables with a combined length of 256km for the Polish offshore wind farms Baltyk II and Baltyk III.  Hellenic Cables will be responsible for the design and manufacturing of the 220kV HVAC cables at their factory in Corinth, Greece, while Jan De Nul Group will transport, install, and bury the four export cables.  The connection of the two Baltyk wind farms to shore will conclude in 2026. 

Motor Oil EGM todayMotor Oil holds an EGM today, to approve the early termination of the current Share Buyback program and to approve a new Share Buyback program. 

Fourlis’ TRADE ESTATES acquires Smart Park from REDS

Fourlis announced that TRADE ESTATES REIC signed a SPA to acquire from REDS S.A., the total shares of “YIALOU S.A.”, owner and property manager of the retail park Smart Park. The value of the property is agreed at EUR 110m (cash transaction at EUR 93m adjusted for net debt and other liabilities). It is reminded that TRADE ESTATES REIC is in the process of an Initial Public Offering in ATHEX. 

Aegean Airlines share buyback

Aegean Airlines announced on ATHEX that on 09.10.2023 it purchased 10,000 own shares at an average price of EUR 9.4993/share. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

13/10/23 | Import Price Index in Industry AUG

18/10/23 | GDP 2022 (provisional data)

20/10/23 | Standard & Poor’s – Greek sovereign credit review

Results (3Q/9Μ 2023)

11/10/23 | Entersoft (Bef-mkt)

26/10/23 | Mytilineos (Bef-mkt)

31/10/23 | Coca Cola HBC (10:00 Athens time)

02/11/23 | PPC (Aft-mkt), HELLENiQ ENERGY

03/11/23 | Piraeus Financial Holdings

07/11/23 | Eurobank Holdings

09/11/23 | Alpha Services & Holding, Titan Cement, ΟΤΕ (Bef-mkt)

20/11/23 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)

21/11/23 | OPAP, ElvalHalcor, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Fourlis (Aft-mkt)

22/11/23 | LAMDA Development, Quest Holdings (Aft-mkt)

EGM / AGM

11/10/23 | Motor Oil (EGM)

18/10/23 | Jumbo (EGM)

20/10/23 | ILYDA (EGM)

03/11/23 | Euroconsultants (EGM)

Ex-Dividend

13/10/23 | ELVE (EUR 0.40)

30/10/23 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.20)

02/11/23 | OPAP (interim EUR 1.00)

23/11/23 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 1.47)

30/11/23 | Thrace Plastics (interim EUR 0,06858)

Share Capital Increase

13/10/23-23/10/23 | Intralot – Trading period of rights

13/10/23-26/10/23 | Intralot – Exercise period of rights

07/11/23 | Intralot – Commencement of trading of new shares 

OPTIMA

Research Department Equity Research