Today’s Headlines
· IMF sees high primary surpluses in 2024-29e for Greece; Debt/GDP to drop by 29.5% by 2029e
· 6-month T-bill yield down
· Greek banks to exceed NCE targets in 2024-Press
· AIA expands its capacity (Press)
· METLEN | 3Q/9M24 Results First Read: Bottom line beat
· METLEN among the bidders for a new Italian energy hub project-Reuters
· METLEN’s Chairman & CEO Evangelos Mytilineos re-elected as President of Eurometaux
· PPC raises EUR 600m with a new 4.625% Senior Notes due 2031
· National Bank of Greece 3Q24 results out on 07 November
· GEKTERNA approves the sale of Terna Energy
· Jumbo Share buyback
· Intracom Holdings bought Intralot shares
Macro Headlines
IMF sees high primary surpluses in 2024-29e for Greece; Debt/GDP to drop by 29.5% by 2029e
IMF, in its Autumn fiscal monitor expects that Greece will record a primary surplus of 2.1% in 2024, (from 1.9% in 2023), expects it to remain at 2.1% in 2025-29e, which in turn should lower the gross debt/GDP ratio from 168.9% in 2023 to 159.0% in 2024, to 152.9% in 2025 and further down to 139.4% by 2029.
6-month T-bill yield down
The Greek State raised EUR 600m yesterday from the issuance of 26-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 1,060m (2.12x coverage ratio vs. 2.12x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.71% (vs. 2.85% in the previous auction).
Sector Headlines
Greek banks to exceed NCE targets in 2024-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), the management teams of the four systemic banks will announce in 3Q/9M results that they’ll exceed net credit expansion targets for 2024 as well as that growth will continue in 2025. Moreover, they will also present their plans about the quicker DTC amortization, so that SSM to approve dividend payouts of more than 50% from 2025 net profits.
AIA expands its capacity (Press)
Reportedly (Kathimerini), Athens International Airport is expected to begin its upgrade in early 2025, with the expansion of its capacity to 33 million passengers, which is estimated to be completed in 2028. The total cost is estimated at c EUR 650m and the project includes the expansion of the existing terminal by around 81,000 sqm, the creation of new passenger lounges, a new baggage sorting facility and new retail and office space. In addition, a new parking area for 32 aircraft will be developed and a new VIP terminal will be created, as well as a multi-store car park.
Company Headlines
METLEN || BUY | CP: EUR 32.90 | TP: EUR 49.00
METLEN 3Q/9M24 Results First Read: Bottom line beat
METLEN (Mytilineos) released a strong set of 3Q/9M results, well above our call at Bottom line. In more detail, group turnover in 3Q24 shapes at EUR 1.721m (+9.5% YoY, +20% vs. Optima), EBITDA of EUR 289m (+0.7% YoY, 2% above Optima) and Net income of EUR 200m (+3.1% YoY, 14% above Optima). Regarding Leverage, Net Debt in September 2024-end stood at EUR 2.06bn, implying a Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.05, adjusted for non-recourse debt. in our view, METLEN is on track to meet or even exceed the ambitious EBITDA guidance of EUR >1.1bn for 2024; taking also into account the attractive valuation (METLEN currently trades at a 6.1x EV/EBITDA and 7.1x PE for 2024e) and the expected listing of the stock under London’s FTSE 100x, we reiterate our Buy recommendation for the stock, with the Target Price at EUR 49.0/share.
|
EUR m |
3Q23 |
3Q24 |
Y-o-Y change |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
9M23 |
9M24 |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Group Revenues |
1,572 |
1,721 |
9.5% |
1,440 |
20% |
4,088 |
4,203 |
2.8% |
|
– Energy EBITDA |
229 |
223 |
-2.6% |
220 |
1% |
532 |
545 |
2.4% |
|
– Metallurgy EBITDA |
57 |
65 |
14.0% |
60 |
8% |
193 |
207 |
7.3% |
|
– Construction/Concessions |
2 |
6.8 |
>100% |
5 |
36% |
8 |
19 |
137.5% |
|
Group EBITDA |
287 |
289 |
0.7% |
282 |
2% |
723 |
763 |
5.5% |
|
Net Income |
194 |
200.0 |
3.1% |
175 |
14% |
462 |
482 |
4.3% |
Source: Optima bank Research, Mytilineos
METLEN among the bidders for a new Italian energy hub project-Reuters
According to Reuters, METLEN is among the bidders for a stake in a future venture combining Italian energy firm Sorgenia’s assets with those of solar power firm EF Solare. The buyer would take a 27.6% stake in Sorgenia, held by Spanish fund firm Asterion, to become a shareholder in a new unified energy player with a stake of nearly 40%, which could be valued at around EUR 1bn ($1.1 bn), one of Reuters’ sources said. EF Solare and Sorgenia are both controlled by Italian infrastructure fund F2i.
Comment: It is noted that there were similar press reports on the matter back from last June. It is also reminded that METLEN’s management has repeatedly stated that Italy is among the six countries where it is interested to expand its activities. Additionally, last May, the Chief Executive Director of METLEN, Mr Kalafatas, said that the company plans to invest a total of EUR 3.3bn in Italy in the next 4-year period, with the development of a 3.7GW RES portfolio in the country and also in potential acquisitions in the electricity supply business.
METLEN’s Chairman & CEO Evangelos Mytilineos re-elected as President of Eurometaux
Evangelos Mytilineos, Chairman & CEO of METLEN Energy & Metals, has been re-elected as President of Eurometaux, Europe’s Association for the Non-Ferrous Metals industry, at its General Assembly.
PPC raises EUR 600m with a new 4.625% Senior Notes due 2031
PPC raised EUR 600m (upsize from EUR 500m initial target) through the issuance of a new bond maturing in 2031 at a 4.625% coupon. The proceeds from the Offering will be used to fund ongoing expansion capital expenditure projects of PPC and its subsidiaries. PPC intends to have the Notes listed on the Official List of Euronext Dublin and admitted to trading on the Global Exchange Market thereof, or on another appropriate trading venue in the European Union.
National Bank of Greece 3Q24 results out on 07 November
National Bank of Greece announced that it will report 3Q24 results on Thursday 07 November.
GEKTERNA approves the sale of Terna Energy
During yesterday’s EGM, GEKTERNA approved as expected the sale of TERNA ENERGY to Masdar.
Jumbo Share buyback
The company announced that it purchased on 22 October, 25,000 own shares at an average price of EUR 25.440. The company now holds 221,626 shares or 0.16% of the total share capital.
Intracom Holdings bought Intralot shares
Intralot announced that Intracom Holdings purchased on 23 October, 100.000 common shares of Intralot at an average price of EUR 1.0827 and for a total value of EUR 108.274,54.
Calendar of Events
Macros
24/10/24 | Building Activity JUL (ELSTAT)
30/10/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT) & Economic Sentiment Indicator OCT
31/10/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade AUG (ELSTAT) & Unemployment Rate SEP (ELSTAT)
01/11/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI OCT (09:00 UTC)
3Q/9M24 Results Release
24/10/24 | Metlen (Bef-mkt)
30/10/24 | Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
31/10/24 | Coca-Cola HBC (7:00am GMT)
01/11/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings
05/11/24 | Premia Properties
07/11/24 | National Bank of Greece, Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement, PPC (Aft-mkt), Alpha Trust Andromeda
08/11/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (08:00 GR Time)
11/11/24 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt)
13/11/24 | LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
14/11/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings, Lavipharm
20/11/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
21/11/24 | Ideal Holdings (Bef-mkt)
25/11/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
26/11/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
19/12/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
30/10/24 | Kloukinas-Lappas (EGM)
04/11/24 | PPC (EGM)
06/11/24 | TERNA Energy (EGM)
08/11/24 | Biokarpet (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
04/11/24 | OPAP (interim dividend EUR 0.60)
02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)
Share Capital Increase – Attica Bank
21/10/24-30/10/24 | Trading period of rights
21/10/24-04/11/24 | Exercise period of rights
13/11/24 | Commencement of trading of new shares SCI
Warrants – Attica Bank
21/10/24-04/11/24 | Offer Period
08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period
04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
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