Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.50% to 2,013.59 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.50%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.15%, Banks Index: -1.02%) and the traded value was shaped at €200.2m, down from Monday’s €227.5m. We expect the international markets to set the tone ahead of the MSCI announcements today.
Today’s Headlines
· IOBE’s headline ESI up in October
· Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – October 2025
· Eurobank issued new Tier I note
· Eurobank trades tomorrow ex DPS
· Titan Cement 3Q25e Results Preview | Strong quarter, on track to deliver record-breaking profitability in 2025e despite the weak $
· Motor Oil considers disposing a minority stake in the Anemos portfolio (press)
· Aktor Group and DEPA partner in the Natural Gas Supply and trading Business (press)
· Alpha Trust – Andromeda dividend reinvestment update
Macro Headlines
IOBE’s headline ESI up in October
The Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) issued its monthly survey for October 2025, according to which the Economic Sentiment Index rose to 107.5 units from 106.2 in the previous month, driven by the improvement in the services (+12.3 bps m-o-m) and the Retail Trade (+8.6 bps m-o-m), while expectations in the Industrial sector deteriorated by 0.3 bps m-o-m. The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated by 2.0bps to -47.6 units in October, reflecting a small deterioration of the optimism of households for their financials.
Sector Headlines
Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – October 2025
Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share rose to 53.67% in October 2025 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 112.26/MWh, up by EUR 19.5/MWh m-o-m and by EUR 22.2/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 4,520Wh, down 4.9% y-o-y.
- In more detail, Metlen’s Protergia ranks first with 23.60%, GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 9.80%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 6.39% and MOH’s NRG with 4.46%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in October 2025 was down by 2.8% m-o-m to 46.33%, below the EU-mandated 50% mark.
Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 47% of total (vs. 51% in September), Natural Gas follows with 42% (vs. 37% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 2% (4%), Oil and Lignite Powered Plants contributed 3% (3%) and finally, Imports 6% (6%).
Company Headlines
Eurobank issued new Tier I note
Eurobank issued a new subordinated Tier I note of EUR 600.0m at a coupon of 6.25% and a perpetual maturity. The issue oversubscribed by >4.6x as demand exceeded EUR 2.8bn.
Eurobank trades tomorrow ex DPS
As of tomorrow, Eurobank will trade ex €0.04681 interim DPS (DY: ~1.45%).
Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 38.85 | TP EUR 50.50
3Q25e Results Preview | Strong quarter, on track to deliver record-breaking profitability in 2025e despite the weak $
3Q25e results preview | Titan is scheduled to release its 3Q25e results tomorrow before the market opening. We expect Group turnover of €686m (+3.7% y-o-y), 2.1% higher compared to consensus, EBITDA of €165.1m (+6.0% y-o-y) lower by 4.8% compared to consensus estimate of €173.5m and net income (assuming no one-offs) of 80.8m, vs. consensus estimate of €86.6m.
- In 9M25e terms, we expect Group sales at €2,015m (+1.5% y-o-y), €452m EBITDA (+3.4%) and Net Profits adj. at €201m. The Company will hold a conference call also tomorrow (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Comment: We expect a solid quarter for the Group, despite the headwinds from the US market, the soft $ and also the tougher comparable in the EMED following the sale of the Turkish subsidiary.
- That said, in our view, is on track to set another record-breaking year in terms of performance and profitability, close to our full year estimates of €640m and €325m (excluding one-offs). Taking also the attractive valuation of the Group (9x 2025e P/E and 5.3x EV/EBITDA), we reiterate our Buy recommendation for the Stock with a target price at €50.5/share.
3Q/9M25e Results Preview
|
EUR m |
3Q24 |
3Q25e |
Y-o-Y |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Cons. |
9M24 |
9M25e |
Y-o-Y |
|
Turnover |
661.6 |
686.0 |
3.7% |
671.8 |
2.1% |
1,984.6 |
2,014.6 |
1.5% |
|
Greece |
105.5 |
125.0 |
18.5% |
|
|
324.0 |
383.0 |
18.2% |
|
USA |
376.7 |
379.0 |
0.6% |
|
|
1,151.3 |
1,132.2 |
-1.7% |
|
SEE |
111.4 |
118.0 |
5.9% |
|
|
326.8 |
315.2 |
-3.5% |
|
E.MED |
68.0 |
64.0 |
-5.9% |
|
|
182.5 |
184.2 |
0.9% |
|
EBITDA |
155.7 |
165.1 |
6.0% |
173.5 |
-4.8% |
437.1 |
452.0 |
3.4% |
|
EBITDA margin |
23.53% |
24.07% |
53 |
25.83% |
-176 |
22.02% |
22.44% |
41 |
|
Greece |
13.5 |
15.9 |
17.8% |
|
|
45.8 |
54.6 |
19.2% |
|
USA |
84.7 |
87.6 |
3.4% |
|
|
248.7 |
246.3 |
-1.0% |
|
SEE |
46.9 |
50.5 |
7.7% |
|
|
128.3 |
117.0 |
-8.8% |
|
E.MED |
10.6 |
11.1 |
4.7% |
|
|
14.3 |
34.1 |
138.5% |
|
Net income |
75.9 |
80.8 |
6.5% |
86.6 |
-6.7% |
237.8 |
149.1 |
-37.3% |
|
Net income adj. |
81.9 |
80.8 |
|
|
|
224.6 |
201.1 |
|
Source: Optima, Titan Cement
Net income (adj.) excudes one-off expenses for the US IPO and the accounting loss from the Adocim disposal consensus estimates are based on feedback from 12 analysts
Greece: We expect the strong domestic demand to have continued in 3Q25e and hence offset the softer exports. In this context, we see turnover rising by c. 18.5% y-o-y to €125m, while EBITDA is seen up by 17.8% y-o-y to EUR 15.9m, also aided by higher margin domestic sales.
US: Titan America is expected to release a positive y-o-y quarter, despite the softer $ vis a vis the EURO and the weak US market, driven by market share gains and pricing. Specifically, in Euro terms, we see turnover up by 0.6% y-o-y to €379m in 3Q25e, while assuming a 63bps margin expansion we reach an EBITDA of EUR 87.6m, representing a 3.4% y-o-y increase.
SE Europe: We expect that the solid demand and the normalized electricity costs in the region supported the regional performance and profitability in 3Q25e. That said, we estimate revenues up by 5.9% y-o-y to EUR €118m, while due to drop in the energy-related opex, EBITDA is seen up by 7.7% y-o-y (implying a 70bps margin expansion) to €50.5m in 3Q25e.
EMED: We expect that the strong sales and pricing in Egypt will more than offset the discontinued Turkish operations from June onwards (following the disposal of Adocim). Overall, turnover in 3Q25e is estimated down by 5.9% y-o-y to €64m, resulting in EBITDA of €11.1m compared to EBITDA of €10.6m in 3Q24.
Below the EBITDA line: Accounting for depreciation charges of EUR 43m, net financial expenses of EUR 12m, effective Group tax rate of 22% and EUR 5m minorities towards Titan America, we expect Net profits to shape at EUR 80.8m in 3Q25e compared to €75.9m (and €81.9m excluding one offs) a year ago.
Motor Oil considers disposing a minority stake in the Anemos portfolio (press)
According to Newmoney.gr, Motor Oil is tendering the disposal of a 49% stake in its Anemos Portfolio. As a reminder, Anemos operates 493MW RES capacity, mainly wind and an additional pipeline of 1.5GW.
Aktor Group and DEPA partner in the Natural Gas Supply and trading Business (press)
According to press reports, Aktor Group’s energy subsidiary and DEPA established a 60%/40% joint venture named “Atlantic-sea LNG Trading”, which will develop the Natural Gas and LNG Supply and Trading business, mainly from the US market. According to Kathimerini, the US Development Finance Corporation will also enter the JV at a later stage.
ALPHA TRUST–ANDROMEDA dividend reinvestment update
ALPHA TRUST–ANDROMEDA announced that 23.62% of its share capital (excluding treasury shares) opted into its five-year dividend reinvestment program, resulting in the issuance of 29,809 new shares, which will begin trading on November 7, 2025—the same day the dividend of €0.2599 will be paid.
- The strong participation reflects investor confidence in the company’s strategy for sustainable growth and capital reinforcement. CEO Vasilis Kletsas noted that shareholders who joined all four phases of the program achieved a total return of 31.40% from November 2023 to October 2025, significantly outperforming the 15.94% standalone stock return.
Calendar of Events
Macros
07/11/25 | Trade Balance SEP (ELSTAT)
07/11/25 | Scope Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review
10/11/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI OCT (ELSTAT), Industrial Production SEP (ELSTAT)
14/11/25 | Import Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
14/11/25 | Fitch Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
05/11/25 | MSCI Index Review announcement (Effective date: November 25, 2025)
24/11/25 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)
3Q/9M25 Results Release
06/11/25 | National Bank of Greece (Bef-mkt), ΤΙΤΑΝ (Bef-mkt), METLEN (Bef-mkt)
07/11/25 | Alpha Bank (08:00 GR Time)
11/11/25 | Optima bank, Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt)
13/11/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Austriacard Holdings
17/11/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Lavipharm (Aft-mkt)
18/11/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Bef-mkt)
19/11/25 | Cenergy Holdings, Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), Quest Holdings (Aft-mkt)
20/11/25 | CrediaBank, Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt)
21/11/25 | Premia Properties
24/11/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
25/11/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
27/11/25 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
07/11/25 | Intracom Holdings (EGM)
13/11/25 | Frigoglass (EGM)
20/11/25 | E.In.S. (EGM)
03/12/25 | Eurobank Holdings (EGM),
Ex-Dividend
05/11/25 | BriQ Properties (interim €0.08/share)
06/11/25 | Eurobank (interim €0.04681/share)
10/11/25 | National Bank of Greece (interim dividend)
01/12/25 | Alpha Bank (interim €0.0481668788/share)
02/12/25 | CNL CAPITAL (interim €0.15/share)
22/12/25 | ELLAKTOR (interim €0.50/share)
23/12/25 | Motor Oil (interim €0.35/share)
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