Today’s Headlines
· MSCI Quarterly Index Announcement
· Eurobank Holdings | 3Q24 results will include Hellenic Bank for the first time
· National Bank of Greece | Another strong quarter, reiterate Buy
· Alpha Services and Holdings | A better quarter despite the one-offs
· Attica Bank completed the share capital increase
· Motor Oil 3Q24 Results release date
· Terna Energy EGM yesterday
Market Headlines
MSCI Quarterly Index Announcement
MSCI announced the quarterly indices review, with no changes for the Greek stocks in its standard index, and the deletion of ELLAKTOR from the small cap index close (rebalancing effective date on November 25th, at the closing).
Company Headlines
Eurobank Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 1.9915 | TP: EUR 2.80
3Q24 results will include Hellenic Bank for the first time
Optima View | Eurobank Holdings is set to report 3Q/9M2024 results on Thursday 07 November, post market close and management will host a conference call on the same day at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London time. We anticipate a better quarter due to the consolidation of Hellenic Bank in Cyprus for the first time. We expect performing loans and deposits in Greece to accelerate q-o-q and asset quality trends to be flattish. The stock is trading 0.84x P/TBV24e, at 27% discount to European peers, which is not justified by its higher RoaTBV of 16.6% against 14% of EU banks. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.80/share.
9M24 Preview | We expect net profit before one-offs to reach EUR 1.10bn (+20% y-o-y), driven by higher net interest income (+14% y-o-y), fee income (+10% y-o-y) and lower loan loss provisions (-12% y-o-y).
3Q24 Preview | We project 3Q24 net profit before one-offs to come in at EUR 369.2m (+6% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y), in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 369.9m. In more detail, we expect net interest income to shape at EUR 690.1m (+23% q-o-q, +24% y-o-y), in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 687.2m. We also forecast fee income to rise by 10% q-o-q and 21% y-o-y to EUR 161.7m, slightly lower than the consensus estimate of EUR 163.7m.
- Thus, we project core income to stand at EUR 851.8m (+20% q-o-q, +23% y-o-y), in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 849.6m and non-core revenues to reach EUR 8.4m against losses of EUR 2.1m in 2Q24, lower than consensus estimate of EUR 20.0m. Hence, we estimate that total revenues will reach EUR 860.2m (+22% q-o-q, +22% y-o-y), lower than the consensus estimate of EUR 867.5m.
On the side, we expect OpEx to shape at EUR 305.5m (+34% q-o-q, +33% y-o-y), in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 303.3m. Thus, we project pre-provision income to reach EUR 554.7m (+16% q-o-q, +17% y-o-y), lower than the consensus estimate of EUR 565.0m. Finally, we estimate loan loss provisions to shape at EUR 79.8m (+10% q-o-q, -12% y-o-y), assuming a CoR of 70bps for the quarter and in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 82.0m.
Table 1 | Quarterly Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 3Q24e |
2Q24 |
QoQ |
3Q23 |
YoY |
|
Cons 3Q24e |
QoQ |
Optima vs Cons |
|
Net Interest Income |
690.1 |
560.9 |
23% |
558.4 |
24% |
|
687.2 |
23% |
0.4% |
|
Fee income |
161.7 |
147.1 |
10% |
133.1 |
21% |
|
163.7 |
11% |
-1.2% |
|
Core income |
851.8 |
708.0 |
20% |
691.5 |
23% |
|
849.6 |
20% |
0.3% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
8.4 |
(2.1) |
– |
11.7 |
-28% |
|
20.0 |
– |
-58.0% |
|
Total revenues |
860.2 |
705.9 |
22% |
703.2 |
22% |
|
867.5 |
23% |
-0.8% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(305.5) |
(228.4) |
34% |
(229.4) |
33% |
|
(303.3) |
33% |
0.7% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
554.7 |
477.5 |
16% |
473.8 |
17% |
|
565.0 |
18% |
-1.8% |
|
Loan Impairments |
(79.8) |
(72.7) |
10% |
(90.4) |
-12% |
|
(82.0) |
13% |
-2.7% |
|
Net profit before one-offs |
369.2 |
348.5 |
6% |
317.8 |
16% |
|
369.9 |
6% |
-0.2% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate
Table 2 | Interim Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 9M24e |
9M23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,822.2 |
1,601.0 |
14% |
|
Fee income |
444.4 |
403.1 |
10% |
|
Core income |
2,266.6 |
2,004.0 |
13% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
54.0 |
30.4 |
78% |
|
Total revenues |
2,320.5 |
2,034.4 |
14% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(762.7) |
(672.7) |
13% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
1,557.9 |
1,361.7 |
14% |
|
Loan Impairments |
(223.5) |
(254.7) |
-12% |
|
Net profit before one-offs |
1,100.8 |
916.3 |
20% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Eurobank Financial Holdings
National Bank of Greece || BUY | CP: EUR 7.59 | TP: EUR 12.00
Another strong quarter, reiterate Buy
Optima View | National Bank of Greece is set to report 3Q/9M24 results on Thursday 07 November, post market close and management will host a conference call on the same day at 19:00 Athens/ 17:00 London Time. We anticipate another strong quarter, thanks to resilient NII and efficient cost containment. We also expect performing loans and deposits to be higher q-o-q and asset quality trends to remain positive. The stock is trading 0.86x P/TBV24e, at 24% discount to its European peers, despite its higher RoaTBV (16.3% in 24e vs. 14.0% of EU banks) and its high dividend yield (7.2% at par with EU banks). We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 12.00/share, implying a 63% upside potential.
9M24 Preview | We project that net profit will come in at EUR 982.2m (+24% y-o-y), on higher NII (+8% y-o-y), fee income (+12% y-o-y) and lower LLPs and other impairments (-9% y-o-y).
3Q24 Preview | We forecast that net profit will be shaped at EUR 312.0m (0% q-o-q, +20% y-o-y) in 3Q24, in line with consensus estimate of EUR 311.7m. In more detail, we estimate NII to reach EUR 580.8m (-1% q-o-q, -1% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 577.9m. We also project fee income to stand at EUR 100.0m (-5% q-o-q, +5% y-o-y), lower than consensus estimate of EUR 106.0m.
- Thus, we expect core income to reach EUR 680.8m (-2% q-o-q, -0.3% y-o-y) and non-core revenues to increase to EUR 15.0m from EUR 4.3m in 2Q24. All in all, we anticipate total revenues to reach EUR 695.8m (-0.1% q-o-q, +1% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 693.9m. On the side, we forecast OpEx to drop slightly to EUR 208.4m (-1% q-o-q, +3% y-o-y), lower than consensus estimate of EUR 212.5m. Finally, we project LLP and other impairments to be flattish q-o-q at EUR 52.1m (-4% y-o-y), assuming a CoR of 54bps for the quarter.
Table 1 | Quarterly Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 3Q24e |
2Q24 |
QoQ |
3Q23 |
YoY |
|
Cons 3Q24e |
QoQ |
Optima vs Cons |
|
Net Interest Income |
580.8 |
586.7 |
-1% |
587.9 |
-1% |
|
577.9 |
-2% |
0.5% |
|
Fee income |
100.0 |
105.5 |
-5% |
95.2 |
5% |
|
106.0 |
0% |
-5.7% |
|
Core income |
680.8 |
692.2 |
-2% |
683.1 |
-0.3% |
|
683.9 |
-1% |
-0.5% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
15.0 |
4.3 |
249% |
7.0 |
114% |
|
10.0 |
133% |
50.0% |
|
Total revenues |
695.8 |
696.5 |
-0.1% |
690.1 |
1% |
|
693.9 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(208.4) |
(210.4) |
-1% |
(202.2) |
3% |
|
(212.5) |
1% |
-1.9% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
487.4 |
486.1 |
0% |
487.9 |
0% |
|
481.4 |
-1% |
1.3% |
|
LLP and other impairments |
(52.1) |
(52.0) |
0% |
(54.0) |
-4% |
|
(53.1) |
2% |
-1.9% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
312.0 |
312.1 |
0% |
261.1 |
20% |
|
311.7 |
0% |
0.1% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate
Table 2 | Interim Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 9M24e |
9M23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,773.0 |
1,639.6 |
8% |
|
Fee income |
305.1 |
273.2 |
12% |
|
Core income |
2,078.1 |
1,912.8 |
9% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
79.1 |
63.3 |
25% |
|
Total revenues |
2,157.2 |
1,976.1 |
9% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(629.6) |
(601.5) |
5% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
1,527.6 |
1,374.6 |
11% |
|
LLP and other impairments |
(159.2) |
(174.8) |
-9% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
982.2 |
791.3 |
24% |
source: Optima bank estimates
Alpha Services and Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 1.4310 | TP: EUR 2.10
A better quarter despite the one-offs
Optima View | Alpha Services & Holdings is scheduled to report 3Q/9M2024 results on Friday 08 November, at 08:00 Athens/06:00 London time and management will host a conference call on the same day at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London time. We anticipate a sequential increase in net profit (+20% q-o-q), on the back of higher fee income and efficient cost containment and despite the one-off costs of EUR 60.0m. Recall that 2Q24 results were burdened by an NPA loss of EUR 101.6m.
- We also anticipate performing loans to be flattish q-o-q, the deposit base to accelerate, in line with the system, and finally asset quality to remain positive. The stock is trading 0.49x P/TBV24e, at a deep 56% discount to European peers. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.10/share, implying a 53% upside potential. Following the release of results, we’ll update our estimates, recommendation and TP.
9M24 Preview | We project 9M2024 reported net profit to come in at EUR 446.7m (-10% y-o-y), We forecast NII to reach EUR ca1.23bn (+1% y-o-y), fee income to stand at EUR 305.0m (+11% y-o-y) and total revenues to shape at EUR 1.62bn (+5% y-o-y). On the cost side, we expect OpEx to rise by 1% y-o-y to EUR 631.6m and loan loss provisions to fall by 20% y-o-y to EUR 175.0m.
3Q24 Preview | We estimate 3Q24 reported net profit to shape at EUR 132.8m (+20% q-o-q, -32% y-o-y). In more detail, we estimate net interest income to reach EUR 400.4m (-2% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y), broadly in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 403.0m. The sequential drop is attributed to the lower Euribor rate and higher wholesale funding costs. We also expect fee income to stand at EUR 108.1m (+8% q-o-q, +7% y-o-y), broadly in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 107.0m.
- Thus, we project core income to stand at EUR 508.5m (0% q-o-q, -5% y-o-y), slightly lower than the consensus estimate of EUR 510.0m and non-core revenues to reach EUR 20.0m vs. EUR 30.5m in 2Q24. Total revenues are expected to come in at EUR 528.5m (-2% q-o-q, -1% y-o-y), broadly in line with the consensus estimate of EUR 530.0m. On the cost side, we estimate that OpEx will narrow to EUR 213.3m (-1% q-o-q, +3% y-o-y), broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 216.0m.
Hence, we forecast pre-provision income to reach EUR 315.3m (-3% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y), broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 314.0m. We also project loan loss provisions to shape at EUR 60.7m (+18% q-o-q, -17% y-o-y), broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 62.0m and assuming a CoR of 68bps for the quarter. Finally, we expect the results to be burdened by one-off costs of EUR 60.0m (VES cost of EUR 50.0m, NPA loss of EUR 10.0m), higher than the consensus estimate of EUR 31.0m.
Table 1 | 3Q24 Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 3Q24e |
2Q24 |
QoQ |
3Q23 |
YoY |
|
Cons 3Q24e |
QoQ |
Optima vs Cons |
|
Net Interest Income |
400.4 |
409.2 |
-2% |
434.2 |
-8% |
|
403.0 |
-2% |
-0.6% |
|
Fee income |
108.1 |
100.1 |
8% |
101.4 |
7% |
|
107.0 |
7% |
1.1% |
|
Core income |
508.5 |
509.4 |
0% |
535.6 |
-5% |
|
510.0 |
0% |
-0.3% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
20.0 |
30.5 |
-34% |
(1.2) |
– |
|
20.0 |
-34% |
0.0% |
|
Total revenues |
528.5 |
539.8 |
-2% |
534.4 |
-1% |
|
530.0 |
-2% |
-0.3% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(213.3) |
(214.6) |
-1% |
(206.4) |
3% |
|
(216.0) |
1% |
-1.3% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
315.3 |
325.2 |
-3% |
328.0 |
-4% |
|
314.0 |
-3% |
0.4% |
|
Loan Impairments |
(60.7) |
(51.5) |
18% |
(73.0) |
-17% |
|
(62.0) |
20% |
-2.1% |
|
NPA loss |
(10.0) |
(101.6) |
-90% |
2.1 |
– |
|
(1.0) |
-99% |
900.0% |
|
Reported net profit |
132.8 |
110.2 |
20% |
195.0 |
-32% |
|
163.0 |
48% |
-18.5% |
source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate
Table 2 | 9M2024 Group P&L forecasts
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 9M24e |
9M23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,229.3 |
1,213.5 |
1% |
|
Fee income |
305.0 |
274.5 |
11% |
|
Core income |
1,534.3 |
1,488.0 |
3% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
88.0 |
52.1 |
69% |
|
Total revenues |
1,622.4 |
1,540.1 |
5% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(631.6) |
(627.4) |
1% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
990.8 |
912.7 |
9% |
|
Loan Impairments |
(175.0) |
(218.5) |
-20% |
|
NPA loss |
(118.2) |
(16.2) |
631% |
|
Reported net profit |
446.7 |
497.5 |
-10% |
Attica Bank completed the share capital increase
Attica Bank announced that it successfully completed the share capital increase of EUR 672.2m. In more detail, 86.94% of the share capital increase was subscribed by existing shareholders who exercised their pre-emptive rights with the payment of a total amount of EUR 584.4m, corresponding to 312,519,944 new shares. The same number of Warrants were distributed to existing shareholders of the Bank who exercised their pre-emptive rights.
- Of the above new Shares: (a) 239,759,595 new shares were subscribed by HFSF, (b) 31,320,557 new Shares were subscribed by Thrivest Holding, (c) 25,619,382 new shares were subscribed by e-EFKA, (d) 5,868,497 new shares were subscribed by the TMEDE and (e) 9,951,913 new shares were subscribed by other existing shareholders of the nank. After the exercise of the pre-emptive rights, 46,949,416 new shares and an equal number of warrants remained unsubscribed.
The unsubscribed new shares and the unsubscribed Warrants were allocated by the BoD, as follows: (a) 5,866,829 new shares were allocated to the HFSF, (b) 34,665,475 new shares were allocated to Thrivest, and (c) the remainder 6,417,112 New Shares were allocated to investment funds under the management of Fiera Capital (UK) Limited. Together with the unsubscribed New Shares, an equal number of Warrants were allocated to the above shareholders. The new shares from the SCI will commence trading on 13 November.
Motor Oil 3Q24 Results release date
Motor Oil will release the 3Q24 Results on 20th November, after the market close, with a conference call (during which the management will also provide an update of its Energy Transition Strategy) scheduled for the next day at 17.30 local time.
Terna Energy EGM yesterday
During yesterday’s EGM, Terna Energy as expected the spin-off of the public works construction, waste management and public private partnerships (PPP) projects sector and their contribution to a new company.
Calendar of Events
Macros
08/11/24 | CPI OCT (ELSTAT) & Industrial Production SEP (ELSTAT)
14/11/24 | Import Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
15/11/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises 3Q24 & SEP (ELSTAT)
20/11/24 | Current Account Balance SEP (BoG) & Turnover Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
22/11/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
25/11/24 | MSCI Index rebalancing (Aft-mkt)
3Q/9M24 Results Release
07/11/24 | National Bank of Greece (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement, Alpha Trust Andromeda
08/11/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (08:00 GR Time)
11/11/24 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt)
12/11/24 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt)
13/11/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
14/11/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings, Lavipharm
18/11/24 | Cenergy Holdings
20/11/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
21/11/24 | Ideal Holdings (Bef-mkt)
25/11/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
26/11/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
12/12/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
08/11/24 | Biokarpet (EGM)
15/11/24 | BriQ Properties (EGM), Intercontinental International REIC (EGM)
19/11/24 | Intrakat (EGM)
22/11/24 | ILYDA (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
11/11/24 | Papoutsanis (interim dividend EUR 0.03)
02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)
23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)
Initiation of trading of new shares
13/11/24 | Attica Bank (from SCI)
Warrants – Attica Bank
08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period
04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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