Today’s Headlines
· National Bank of Greece issued a new green senior bond
· Bank of Cyprus 3Q/9M24 results
· PPC 9M24e Preview | Solid Results, in trajectory to meet the annual recurring EBITDA guidance; focus on the updated targets
· Aegean Airlines 3Q24 results Preview | Strong competition impacts results
· OTE 3Q/9M24 results out tomorrow
· METLEN partners with Cero Generation in 3 grand PV projects of a total 160 MWp in Spain
· Attica Bank new shares commence trading today
Company Headlines
National Bank of Greece issued a new green senior bond
National Bank of Greece raised EUR 650m through the issue of a new green bond (MREL eligible) at a yield of 3.5%. The bond has a maturity of six years is and callable after five. The issue received strong investor demand, attracting ca EUR 4.0bn and was oversubscribed by more than six times.
Bank of Cyprus 3Q/9M24 results
Net profit in 3Q24 came in at EUR 131m (-5% q-o-q) and at EUR 401m (+15% y-o-y) in 9M24. ROTE was shaped at 22.9% in 9M24. Net interest income reached EUR 204m (-1% q-o-q) and NIM squeezed by 16bps q-o-q to 3.52%. Revenues stood at EUR 173m (+2% q-o-q) and OpEx rose by 14% q-o-q. Tangible equity stood at EUR 2.46bn (EUR +122m q-o-q), net loans reached EUR 10.0bn, deposits EUR ca20.0bn and assets EUR 25.9bn. Management reiterated that it is on track to meet FY targets and aims a distribution payout of 50% in 2024, implying a yield of >10%.
PPC || BUY | CP: EUR 11.02 | TP: 17.40
9M24e Preview – Solid Results, in trajectory to meet the annual recurring EBITDA guidance; focus on the updated targets
PPC is scheduled to release its 9M24 results today, post market close, with a conference call (during which the management will present the updated business plan for 2024-27) scheduled for the next day at 14.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). We expect Group turnover of EUR 6,480m (+17.3% YoY, of which c EUR 1,510m from Romania) and recurring EBITDA of EUR 1,331.7m (+42.1% YoY, supported by the EUR c250m contribution from Romania). Assuming EUR 48m one-offs, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 1,283.7m (vs. EUR 915.5m last year) and reported net profits after minorities of EUR 187.2m, down by 17.1% on tough comparable (note that 9M23 Results were positively affected by the EUR 141.6m one off gain from the lignite areas). Finally, excluding one-off items, we expect Net Profits after minorities to shape at EUR 224.7m (up by 127.7% y-o-y).
9M24e key P&L forecasts
|
EUR m |
9M23 |
9M24e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
5,523.6 |
6,480.0 |
17.3% |
|
Opex |
4,582.2 |
5,196.4 |
13.4% |
|
EBITDA |
915.5 |
1,283.7 |
40.2% |
|
EBITDA adj. |
936.8 |
1,331.7 |
42.1% |
|
Net income after minorities |
225.7 |
187.2 |
-17.1% |
|
Net income after minorities (adj.) |
98.7 |
224.7 |
127.7% |
Source: Optima bank, The Company
Aegean Airlines || CP: EUR 9.90 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 14.70
3Q24 results Preview | Strong competition impacts results
3Q24 results preview | Aegean Airlines is set to release 3Q24 results on Thursday 14 November, after market closing. We expect a weaker quarter y-o-y on top line, derived from lower load factors and reduced international traffic. We forecast 3Q24 group revenues of EUR 631.0m (-3.5% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 181.1m (-20.5% y-o-y), affected by increased OpEx (higher fleet maintenance costs and increased fuel & leasing needs) with the respective margin at 28.7% in 3Q24 vs. 34.9% in 3Q23. Further down the P&L, we expect higher depreciation cost and lower financial expenses positively affected by FX gains following the dollar movement, driving Net profit down to EUR 102.9m vs. EUR 133.5m in 3Q23.
3Q24 Key forecasts
|
EUR m |
3Q23 |
3Q24e |
Y-o-Y |
9M23 |
9M24 |
Y-o-Y |
|
Revenues |
653.6 |
631.0 |
-3.5% |
1331.8 |
1380.1 |
3.6% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(423.6) |
(449.9) |
6.2% |
(957.1) |
(1039.6) |
-2.9% |
|
EBITDA |
227.8 |
181.1 |
-20.5% |
374.7 |
340.5 |
-9.1% |
|
mgn (%) |
34.9% |
28.7% |
-610bps |
19.6% |
15.1% |
-450bps |
|
Net Profit |
133.5 |
102.9 |
-22.9% |
178.0 |
137.7 |
-22.6% |
|
Key Statistics |
3Q23 |
3Q24e |
Y-o-Y |
9M23 |
9M24 |
Y-o-Y |
|
ASKs m |
6.768 |
6.707 |
-0.9% |
15.369 |
16.241 |
5.7% |
|
Domestic passengers |
2.143 |
2.266 |
5.7% |
4.857 |
5.222 |
7.5% |
|
International passengers |
3.174 |
3.064 |
-3.5% |
7.099 |
7.361 |
3.7% |
|
Total passengers |
5.317 |
5.330 |
0.2% |
11.956 |
12.583 |
5.2% |
|
Load factor |
86.0% |
84.0% |
-2.0pp |
83.2% |
82.5% |
-0.9pp |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
Analysis | More specifically, revenues decrease is attributable to increased competition and market share losses, which more than offset the flat passenger traffic for Aegean (AIA reported historically high numbers in 9M24, with total passenger traffic +13.3% y-o-y). Aegean’s passenger traffic recorded a marginal 0.2% y-o-y increase in 3Q24 as foreign passengers was lower (-3.4% y-o-y) to c. 3.1m vs. 3.2m in 3Q24, impacted by reduced flight activity in Middle East. The company has shifted its focus into the main airports of the country (international passengers to/from Athens and Thessaloniki up by 3% while domestic passenger traffic was up by 5.7% y-o-y) to address the problem with the Neo family engines, routes with stronger competition. AA’s load factor is also under pressure with the reported number at 84% vs. 86% a year ago and yields are expected to remain flattish, on a tough comparable quarter. Additionally, we project OpEX to increase by 6.2% y-o-y affected by higher fleet maintenance costs towards the Ceo fleet, higher leasing needs and higher fuel consumption, driving EBITDA margin down by -610 bps y-o-y to 28.7%. Finaly, we expect net profit down by c. 22.9% y-o-y, to EUR 102.9m impacted by higher depreciation costs but financial expenses are expected to be lower y-o-y aided by FX gains due to US dollar strengthening.
OTE 3Q/9M24 results out tomorrow
OTE is set to report 3Q/9M24 results tomorrow, before the opening of ATHEX. We expect a weak quarter burdened by the poor performance and a one-off tax cost in Romania. Thus, we estimate group revenues to come in at EUR 906.6m (+2.7% y-o-y) in 3Q24, EBITDA AL at EUR 355.4m (+0.3% y-o-y) and net profit at EUR 139.4m (-8.2% y-o-y). Management will host a CC on the same day at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time.
METLEN partners with Cero Generation in 3 grand PV projects of a total 160 MWp in Spain
METLEN Energy & Metals has been awarded three solar PV projects in Spain totaling 160 MWp for Cero Generation in the municipality of Palencia in Castille-Leon. The scope includes the integrated development and construction of medium-voltage underground lines connecting each switching station with the existing substation, with a length of approximately 18 km and performance of two years of operation and maintenance (O&M) services.
Attica Bank new shares commence trading today
The new 359,469,360 shares from the share capital increase will start trading today. Moreover, Attica Bank announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with an entity advised by Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP for the sale of 95% of the mezzanine and junior notes of two securitisations backed by two portfolios of non-performing exposures (“NPEs”) with a total gross book value of c.€3.7 bn. Attica Bank will retain 100% of the senior notes, utilizing the provisions of the Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme, and 5% of the mezzanine and junior notes. The total proceeds for Attica Bank reflect the senior notes and the consideration for the mezzanine and junior notes, corresponding to c.35% of the total gross book value (EUR 1.29bn) of the Domus and Rhodium portfolios. Following the completion of the transaction, Attica Bank is expected to have an NPE ratio of less than 3%.
Calendar of Events
Macros
14/11/24 | Import Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
15/11/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises 3Q24 & SEP (ELSTAT)
20/11/24 | Current Account Balance SEP (BoG) & Turnover Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
22/11/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
25/11/24 | MSCI Index rebalancing (Aft-mkt)
3Q/9M24 Results Release
13/11/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
14/11/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings, Lavipharm
18/11/24 | Cenergy Holdings
20/11/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
21/11/24 | Ideal Holdings (Bef-mkt)
25/11/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
26/11/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
12/12/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
15/11/24 | BriQ Properties (EGM), Intercontinental International REIC (EGM)
19/11/24 | Intrakat (EGM)
22/11/24 | ILYDA (EGM)
24/12/24 | MED (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)
23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)
Initiation of trading of new shares
13/11/24 | Attica Bank (from SCI)
Warrants – Attica Bank
08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period
04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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