Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday to a new 14yr high, amidst strong risk-on sentiment, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index advanced by 2.49% at 1,600.97 units (FTSE Large Cap: +2.82%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.83%, Banks Index: +3.20%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 212.4m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 153.2m. We expect the positive momentum to continue, albeit at a milder tone today.
Today’s Headlines
· International passenger traffic up in January (Fraport Greece)
· Motor Vehicle Licenses December (ELSTAT)
· Coca Cola HBC 2024 results in line, robust FCF generation, Russia-Ukraine talks positive
· Alpha Services and Holdings trading of new shares commences today
· Commission approves EUR 111.7m RRF grant to support Motor Oil’s renewable hydrogen project
· TITAN Group expands global reach of low-carbon building materials with cementitious venture in India
· AVAX gains 6-month extension for the timely delivery of the Bralos-Amphisa road (press)
· Fourlis commencement of trading of the new shares resulting from the stock option plan
Sector Headlines
International passenger traffic up in January (Fraport Greece)
According to Fraport Greece (operator of the 14 regional Greek airports), international passenger traffic in Greek airports in January 2025 rose by 7.7% y-o-y, while domestic passengers increased by 1.1% y-o-y. Finaly, January’s total passenger traffic reached 663,752 passenger or 3.6% y-o-y increase.
Motor Vehicle Licenses December (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, total passenger cars registered in January 2025 recorded a decrease of 3.4% y-o-y and reached 21,762 units. The number of new cars registered reached 11,563, recording a -15.6% y-o-y decrease, compared to 17.8% increase in January 2024, while used cars that put into circulation increased by 15.5.0% y-o-y to 10,199 units.
Company Headlines
Coca Cola HBC 2024 results in line, robust FCF generation, Russia-Ukraine talks positive
Coca Cola HBC delivered 2024 results that came in line with consensus across all lines, but FCF came in much higher than expected. In more detail, group revenues came in at EUR 10.75bn (+6% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR ca10.7bn on the back of volume of 2.9bn unit cases (+3% y-o-y) and revenues per case of EUR 3.69 (+3% y-o-y), 1% above consensus estimate of EUR 3.66. Comparable EBIT came in at EUR 1.19bn (+10% y-o-y), 1% above consensus estimate of EUR ca1.18bn.
Net profit was shaped at EUR 820.6m (+29% y-o-y), 1% above consensus estimate of EUR 812.3m. Moreover, FCF came in at EUR 712.6m (0% y-o-y), 7% higher than consensus estimate of EUR 663.4m and proposed DPS stood at EUR 1.03 (+11% y-o-y, 45% payout, DY: 2.7%), slightly above consensus estimate of EUR 1.01. Management has guided for organic revenue growth of 6% to 8% and organic EBIT growth of 7% to 11% in 2025.
|
KPIs |
2024A |
2023A |
% |
Consensus |
% |
|
Group revenues (EUR m) |
10,754.4 |
10,184 |
6% |
10,698.6 |
1% |
|
Volume (unit cases) |
2,914.5 |
2,836 |
3% |
2,921.4 |
0% |
|
Net sales revenue per unit case (EUR) |
3.69 |
3.59 |
3% |
3.66 |
1% |
|
Comparable EBIT (EUR m) |
1,192.1 |
1,084 |
10% |
1,177.4 |
1% |
|
Reported net profit (EUR m) |
820.6 |
636.5 |
29% |
812.3 |
1% |
|
FCF (EUR m) |
712.6 |
711.8 |
0% |
663.4 |
7% |
|
DPS (EUR) |
1.03 |
0.93 |
11% |
1.01 |
2% |
source: Company, Vuma consensus
On top of that, the US President said negotiations to end the Ukraine war will start “immediately” after holding a “lengthy and highly productive” telephone call with the Russian President and he expects to meet him in multiple times, suggesting they are likely to meet first in Saudi Arabia. If this is the case, then the news would be positive for the company.
According to CCHBC data, volume in Russia reached 403.1m unit cases (13.8% of group volume) in 2024 against 373.1m unit cases (15.5% of group volume) in 2021. Volume in Ukraine stood at 122.9m unit cases (4.2% of group volume) in 2024 vs. 137.3m unit cases in 2021 (5.7% of group volume).
Furthermore, emerging markets generated EBIT of EUR 576.0m in 2024 and accounted for 49% of group EBIT. Recall that the company announced back on 03 March 2022 that the two countries generated EBIT of EUR 159.9m in 2021 or 20% of group.
Alpha Services and Holdings trading of new shares commences today
Alpha announced that the new 697,462 shares of the bank derived from a SCI following the exercise of stock options rights from 99 beneficiaries, will commence trading today. Recall that Alpha is scheduled to report FY24 results and its new BP on Friday 28 February. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.55/share.
Commission approves EUR 111.7m RRF grant to support Motor Oil’s renewable hydrogen project
The European Commission approved yesterday a EUR 111.7m grant under the RRF programme to support Motor Oil’s plan to produce renewable hydrogen. The measure will support Motor Oil Hellas in the implementation of its “Green Hydrogen” project.
- The project concerns the installation of an electrolyser with a target capacity of 50 MW, which will operate with energy from renewable sources. The renewable hydrogen will be used for different purposes, such as for mobility and other industrial applications (e.g. the production of sustainable fuels).
TITAN Group expands global reach of low-carbon building materials with cementitious venture in India
TITAN Group has entered the South Asian market through a new joint venture in India focused on low-carbon building materials. The venture, formed in collaboration with JAYCEE – a prominent Indian player in supplementary cementitious materials – will operate under the newly established entity Atlas EcoSolutions Private Limited, with TITAN Group holding a majority stake.
- The new venture will focus on sourcing, processing, marketing, and distributing supplementary cementitious materials to the global markets. In line of its Green Growth Strategic Directions 2026. The Group aims to expand its presence in the promising South Asian market and neighboring regions while bringing new materials and advanced technologies.
AVAX gains 6-month extension for the timely delivery of the Bralos-Amphisa road (press)
According to Euro2day.gr, the ministry for infrastructure granted a 6-month extension of the deadline for the completion of the Bralos-Amphisa road. The contract is budgeted at EUR 257m, plus a timely delivery bonus and the state acknowledged that the 6-month extension was due to delayed expropriations of land.
Fourlis commencement of trading of the new shares resulting from the stock option plan
The company announced that on 12 February, 2025, the Athens Exchange approved the admission to trading of the new 843,000 shares resulting from the stock option program. The new shares will be available for trading from today.
Calendar of Events
Macros
14/02/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI JAN (ELSTAT) & Import Price Index in Industry DEC (ELSTAT)
19/02/25 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises DEC (ELSTAT)
20/02/25 | Turnover Index in Industry DEC (ELSTAT) & Current Account Balance DEC (BoG)
4Q/FY24 Results Release
18/02/25 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt)
20/02/25 | METLEN (Bef-mkt)
24/02/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Athens International Airport (Bef-mkt)
26/02/25 | OTE (Bef-mkt)
27/02/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt)
28/02/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (08:00 GR time)
04/03/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
05/03/25 | Cenergy Holdings
06/03/25 | Viohalco
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
28/04/25 | Alumil
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
26/02/25 | Attica Bank (EGM)
06/03/25 | EVROPI Holdings (EGM)
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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