We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels, following yesterday’s jump.
- MARKET COMMENT
ATHEX headed north yesterday, setting a new 14-year-hish, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 2.58% at 1,666.21 units (FTSE Large Cap: +2.94%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.70% Banks Index: +4.22%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 258.5m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 213.1m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels, following yesterday’s jump.
Today’s Headlines
· PDMA offers the switch of existing notes maturing in 2026 with new with longer maturity
· Piraeus Bank acquires 90.01% of Ethniki Insurance
· Autohellas FY24 results out
· Sarantis FY24 results out
· Ascertainment of listing requirements of FAIS GROUP S.A.
· Aegean Airlines Financial Calendar 2025
HEADLINES
Macro Headlines
PDMA offers the switch of existing notes maturing in 2026 with new with longer maturity
Greece announced that it intends to offer new, 4.375% notes due 2038 and new 4.125% notes due 2054, in exchange of the existing 0.0% notes maturing February 2026, at a purchase price 98.17% and the also existing notes 1.875% notes maturing in July 2026 at a 99.77% purchase price. The transaction is expected to be completed on 13 March.
Company Headlines
Piraeus Bank acquires 90.01% of Ethniki Insurance
CP: EUR 4.9510, Rating: Buy, TP: EUR 6.20
Optima View: The acquisition of Ethniki Insurance is positive for Piraeus as it is a) EPS accretive, b) strengthens further its revenue base via higher fee and trading income (bond portfolio of EUR 2.24bn), whilst the positive medium-term impact will derive from cost synergies. Following the guidance upgrade, we’ll also upgrade our estimates and TP. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector.
- Event/Valuation: Piraeus Financial Holdings announced that its 100% subsidiary Piraeus Bank has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire 90.01% stake in Ethniki Insurance from CVC Capital Partners Fund VII for a cash consideration for EUR 600.0m, on a 100% basis (EUR ca540.1m for 90.01%), implying a P/TBV23 of 1.4x and 10% lower than the previous consideration of EUR 670.0m for 100% (EUR 469.0m for 70%) announced on 06 February 2025. Recall that National Bank of Greece controls the remaining 9.99% stake in Ethniki Insurance.
Impact: The Transaction is EPS accretive for Piraeus by circa 5% and RoaTBV by ca 1pp and it elevates fee generation to international best-in-class levels. Based on the above, and including a 50% distribution payout out of 2025 results and onwards per annum, Piraeus’ proforma total capital position is estimated at ca18.5% for 2025, anticipated to reach ca19.5% by 2027 and ca 20.0% by 2028.
- This impact translates into a capital ratio with a comfortable Pillar 2 Guidance buffer of ca 250bps in 2025, evolving to above 300bps by 2027 and close to 400bps by 2028.
Throughout the period, Piraeus’ CET1 ratio is expected to sustain a level of 13% and higher.Piraeus intends to achieve a Financial Conglomerate (FICO) status and pursue the application of CRR article 49 (commonly referred to as Danish Compromise) in relation to the prudential treatment of its participation in the share capital of Ethniki Insurance, which, if attained, would expand further the CET1 ratio by ca50bps.
Ethniki Insurance: Ethniki Insurance is a leading composite insurer in Greece, covering the whole spectrum of insurance products with a ca 14.5% market share (circa 17% in life / circa 11% in nonlife) and more than EUR 0.8bn Gross Written Premiums in 2024. Ethniki Insurance had EUR 4.0bn total assets and EUR 0.4m shareholders’ equity in 2023 and reported a EBT adjusted for non-recurring items of approximately EUR 100.0m in 2023.
New guidance: Following the acquisition of Ethiniki Insurance, management upgraded 2026e-2028e guidance and now expects reported net profit to reach EUR ca1.13bn in 2026e and to accelerate by 11% y-o-y to EUR 1.25bn in 2027e and by 20% y-o-y to EUR 1.5bn in 2028e. RoaTBV is expected to widen to 14.0% in 26e, 14.5% in 27e and 15.0% in 28e.
|
New BP Targets |
2026e |
2027e |
2028e |
Old BP Targets |
2026e |
2027e |
2028e |
|
|
Net profit (EURm) |
1,125 |
1,250 |
1,500 |
Net profit Old (EURm) |
1,000 |
1,125 |
1,375 |
|
|
UPGRADE |
13% |
11% |
9% |
y-o-y (%) |
– |
13% |
22% |
|
|
EPS (EUR) |
0.90 |
1.00 |
1.20 |
EPS (EUR) |
0.80 |
0.90 |
1.10 |
|
|
UPGRADE |
13% |
11% |
9% |
y-o-y (%) |
– |
13% |
22% |
|
|
RoaTBV (%) |
14.0% |
14.5% |
15.0% |
RoaTBV (%) |
13.0% |
13.5% |
14.0% |
|
|
Net fees/Net revenues |
28% |
28% |
28% |
Net fees/Net revenues |
25% |
25% |
25% |
|
|
Cost-to-core income |
35% |
35% |
<35% |
Cost-to-core income |
35% |
35% |
<35% |
|
|
Total capital without Danish compromise |
>18.5% |
19.5% |
20.0% |
Total capital without Danish compromise |
>20% |
20.50% |
21% |
|
|
Buffer over P2G |
265bps |
320bps |
390bps |
Buffer over P2G |
415bps |
440bps |
485bps |
|
|
source: Piraeus Financial Holdings |
||||||||
Autohellas FY24 results out
The company posted a mixed set of results with revenues down by 1.7% y-o-y to EUR 985.7m with car rental segment showing a positive growth in all the countries where the Group operates, which however did not offset the negative performance of car trade in Greece (-8.7% y-o-y).
- EBITDA of the Group reached EUR 278.4 recording a 2.3% y-o-y increase, while net profit after tax reached a historic high to EUR 84.9m, up by 9.9% y-o-y (positively affected by the EUR 8m and EUR 1.6m dividend receipts from Aegean Airlines and Trade Estates respectively).
It is noted that the activity of Italian Motion (FIAT/JEEP/Alfa Romeo) is not included in consolidated revenues and recorded sales of EUR 155.8m in FY24, enhancing the Group’s overall activity. Management stated that the BoD will propose a dividend distribution of EUR 0.85/share (DY:7.5%) in the upcoming AGM.
Sarantis FY24 results out
Sarantis posted a strong set of results with revenues up by 24.4% y-o-y to EUR 600.1m aided by organic growth and the contribution of Stella Pack. On the profitability front, EBITDA reached EUR 81.6m up by 32.5% y-o-y with improved EBITDA margin by 82bps to 13.6%.
- Net Profit of the group, grew to EUR 46.0m, higher by 17.1% y-o-y. Finally, net debt of the group reached EUR 8.5m vs. net cash of EUR 43.6m in FY23 attributed to the completion of acquisition of Stella Pack in January 2024. Management will propose to the AGM the dividend of EUR 0.299174/share increased by 33.3% y-o-y, with payout ratio at 43.5% vs. 38.2% in FY23. (DY:2.3%)
Ascertainment of listing requirements of FAIS GROUP S.A.
The Athens Stock Exchange ascertained that all listing requirements are met, regarding the listing of “FAIS GROUP S.A.” on the Main Market of the Athens Stock Exchange, on condition that adequate free float of the company’s shares will be achieved.
Aegean Airlines Financial Calendar 2025
Aegean Airlines announced that it will report FY24 results on Monday 17 March 2025, the conference call is scheduled for the next day and the AGM will be held on Tuesday 29 April 2025, while dividend ex-date set for Tuesday 20 May 2025.
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
Macros
14/03/25 | Import Price Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
17/03/25 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises JAN (ELSTAT)
20/03/25 | Turnover Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT)
24/03/25 | Current Account Balance JAN (BoG)
18/04/25 | Standard & Poor’s – Greek sovereign rating review
4Q/FY24 Results Release
17/03/25 | Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International, BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
02/04/25 | Trade Estates
08/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt)
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil (Aft-mkt)
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
28/03/25 | Trastor (AGM)
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM), Autohellas (AGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM), Aegean Airlines (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
10/04/25 | Autohellas (EUR 0.85)
23/04/25 | Bank of Greece (EUR 0.672), Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
20/05/25 | Aegean Airlines
03/06/25 | Noval Property (EUR 0.043)
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14)
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (EUR 0.55)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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