Greek Market Watch: Piraeus Bank, HELLENiQ ENERGY, OTE, METLEN, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, NBG, Qualco, ElvalHalcor, Fourlis, Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp, Gaming

Market Comment

ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.09% to 2,283.73 units (FTSE Large Cap: 1.21%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.70%, Banks Index: +2.12%) and the traded value was shaped at €307.0m, down from Tuesday’s €403.2m. We expect the ATHEX to seek direction today, with FY25 Results in focus today. 

Today’s Headlines

·         Piraeus 4Q/FY25 Results out today bmo

·         HELLENiQ ENERGY 4Q25e Results out today amc | Strong quarter, driven by the refinery; positive outlook for 2026e; we expect €0.40 final DPS

·         OTE  4Q/FY25 Results out today bmo

·         METLEN among the three bidders for the Dunkerque Aluminium plant (press)

·         Eurobank 4Q25 Preview | Strong FY25 performance, new growth drivers emerging

·         Alpha Bank 4Q25 Preview | Set for FY25 Profit Surge, UniCredit Partnership and AstroBank Integration in Focus

·         National Bank of Greece 4Q25 Preview | FY25 delivery, capital deployment in focus

·         Eurobank financial calendar update

·         NBG Share Buyback

·         Qualco-Engineering International Belgium to Strengthen the EU Parliament’s Digital Systems

·         ElvalHalcor FY25 Results out on 3 March

·         Fourlis FY25 Results out on 31 March

·         Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp new retail Bond commences trading on ATHE today

·         New Legislation Aims to Disrupt Illegal Betting Market in Greece 

Company Headlines 

Piraeus 4Q/FY25 Results out today bmo

Piraeus Bank is scheduled to report 4Q25 results today before the opening of the ATHEX. Management will host a conference call today at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London. Piraeus is set to close FY25 delivering its financial targets, generating over €1bn in reported profit despite the low-rate environment. 4Q25 confirms that NII has bottomed out, while fee income strength is structural. Ethniki Insurance contributed only for one month in 2025, representing a significant earnings and strategic uplift in 2026-2029. Investors focus now shifts to the Business Plan with particular emphasis on the loan growth strategy and the incremental net income contribution from Ethniki Insurance. 

HELLENiQ ENERGY 4Q25e Results out today amc | Strong quarter, driven by the refinery; positive outlook for 2026e; we expect €0.40 final DPS

HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 4Q25e results today, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled for the same day. Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of €361m (-32.2%) y-o-y driven by the strong refining environment and solid production and “adjusted” net profits of €181m from €117m in 4Q24. Accounting for the negative impact from inventory and other one-offs of €87m (mainly Oil price drop), IFRS EBITDA and Net profits are seen at €274m and €130m respectively compared to EBITDA of €189m and €48m net profits in 4Q24. Note that our estimates are in line with consensus. With respect to the dividend, we expect HE to declare a final DPS of €0.40, raising total distributions for 2025 to €0.60/share. 

OTE 4Q/FY25 Results out today bmo

OTE is scheduled to report 4Q/FY25 results today, before the opening of ATHEX, followed by a conference call at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time. We expect the quarter to show steady operational performance, with EBITDA (AL) up +2% y-o-y and FCF reaching €530m, supported by ongoing momentum in mobile, FTTH rollout as planned and solid ICT activity. Viewing the stock as a dividend‑yield story, our key focus will be on the payout ratio. 

METLEN among the three bidders for the Dunkerque Aluminium plant (press)

According to the French newspaper La Voix du Nord, the tender process for the disposal of the Dunkerque Aluminium Plant enters the binding offers phase, following the completion of the due diligence. As per the same press report, METLEN along with Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain are the three competitors for the acquisition of the said Aluminium plant with a 300,000 capacity and an estimated EBITDA of €300m. 

Eurobank || Buy | CP: €3.88 | TP: €4.60

4Q25 Preview | Strong FY25 performance, new growth drivers emerging

4Q25 preview | Eurobank is scheduled to report 4Q25 results today after the close of the ATHEX, followed by a conference call at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London time. For 4Q, we anticipate a solid set of core revenues, with NIIextending its upward trajectory, supported by robust loan growth, while fee income is expected to remain broadly stable q-o-q. Operating expenses are set to rise on seasonality, while credit impairments should remain contained. Overall, Eurobank remains on track to outperform its profitability guidance with an estimated RoTBV of 16.1%, exceeding the management target of 15%.

4Q25 results | In more detail, we estimate NII at €643m (+2% q-o-q, -5% y-o-y), broadly in line with median consensus. Fee income is projected at €193m (flat q-o-q, -10% y-o-y), given the softer seasonal profile of the fourth quarter. We also expect non-core revenues at €14m, leading to total revenues of €849m (+1% q-o-q, -5% y-o-y). On the cost side, we forecast OpEx of €324m (+3% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y), driven by seasonal factors. This implies PPI of €525m (-1% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y). Loan provisions are expected at €80m (-2% q-o-q, –11% y-o-y), consistent with a normalized CoR of 60bps. Overall, we project net profit of €352m (+3% q-o-q, +12% y-o-y) in 4Q25, in line with the median consensus.

FY25 results | On a yearly basis, we expect NII of €2.5bn (+2% y-o-y) and fee income at €750m (+13% y-o-y), driven by strong loan growth and solid fee generation. Operating expenses are seen up 17% y-o-y, in line with guidance, while impairment charges are expected broadly stable y-o-y. Overall, we project reported net profit at €1.4bn (-3% y-o-y), a strong performance despite interest rates normalization.

Optima view | Eurobank is set to close FY25 ahead of its profitability target, supported by strong credit expansion. During 2025, Eurobank has significantly strengthened its footprint in the insurance sector through the acquisition of CNP Cyprus and the Eurolife Life in Greece. Looking ahead, our focus shifts to the 2026-2028 Business Plan, where key elements include the growing contribution from the expanded insurance footprint, the loan growth outlook and the continued acceleration of fee income generation. Valuation remains attractive with the stock trading at 9.2x P/E 2026e and 1.5x P/TBV 2026e, implying a 10% and 6% discount to European banks respectively.

Table 1 | Quarterly Group P&L forecasts

(€ m)	Optima 4Q25e	3Q25	QoQ	4Q24	YoY		Consensus 4Q25e	QoQ		Optima vs Cons
Net interest income	643	632	2%	677	-5%		639		1%	1%
Fee & rental income	193	193	0%	215	-10%		201		4%	-4%
Core income	836	825	1%	893	-6%		842		2%	-1%
Trading & other income	14	20	-32%	-2	-682%		13		-37%	9%
Total revenues	849	844	1%	890	-5%		855		1%	-1%
Operating expenses	-324	-316	3%	-317	2%		-326		3%	-1%
Pre-Provision Profit	525	528	-1%	573	-8%		530		0%	-1%
Loan provisions	-80	-82	-2%	-90	-11%		-80		-2%	0%
Reported Net Profit	352	342	3%	313	12%		352		3%	0%
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate

Table 2 | Annual P&L forecasts                                      Table 3 | Financial KPIs

(€ m)	Optima 2025e	2024	YoY		Financial KPIs	Optima 2025e	2024a
Net interest income	2,545	2,507	2%		RoaTBV (%)	16.1%	18.0%
Fee & rental income	750	666	13%		EPS	0.39	0.39
Core income	3,295	3,173	4%		Cost/Income (%)	37%	33%
Trading & other income	60	69	-13%		CoR (%)	0.60%	0.69%
Total revenues	3,355	3,242	3%		NPE ratio (%)	2.8%	2.9%
Operating expenses	-1,255	-1,071	17%		CET1 (%)	15.5%	15.7%
Pre-Provision Profit	2,100	2,171	-3%		Source: Optima bank estimates, Company
Loan provisions	-318	-319	0%
Reported Net Profit	1,409	1,448	-3%
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company

 

Alpha Bank || Buy | CP: €3.719 | TP: €4.28

4Q25 Preview | Set for FY25 Profit Surge, UniCredit Partnership and AstroBank Integration in Focus

4Q25 preview | Alpha Bank is scheduled to report 4Q25 results on Friday 27 February before the opening of the ATHEX. Management will host a conference call the same day at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London time. For Q4 we anticipate solid core revenue, with NII continuing its upward trajectory, supported by loan growth, deposit repricing and the initial contribution of Astrobank, which is consolidated for the first time for two months. Fee income is expected broadly stable q-o-q, reflecting the usual seasonality of the quarter. Operating expenses are set to rise due to seasonal pattern, while credit impairments remain contained. Overall, Alpha Bank remains on track for a material profitability uplift in 2025, largely driven by the normalization of one-off charges booked in 2024. ForFY25, we expect EPS of €0.36 and RoTBV at 11.4%.

4Q25 results | In more detail, we estimate NII at €418m (+4% q-o-q, +3% y-o-y), supported, broadly aligned with median consensus. We also forecast fee income at €119m (-1% q-o-q, +5% y-o-y), given the softer seasonal profile of 4Q. We also expect non-core revenues at €40m. Overall, we estimate total revenues of €578m (+10% q-o-q, flat y-o-y). On costs, we estimate OpEx at €244m (+14% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y), due to seasonal factors. This results in PPI of€334m (+8% q-o-q, –1% y-o-y). Loan provisions are projected at €52m (+15% q-o-q, –18% y-o-y), consistent with a normalized CoR of 45bps. Overall, we project that reported net profit will reach €196m (+5% q-o-q, +19% y-o-y) in 4Q25, slightly below the median consensus of €204m.

FY25 results | On a yearly basis, we expect NII of €1.62bn (-2% y-o-y) and fee income at €468m (+11% y-o-y). We also expect OpEx to rise slightly by 1% y-o-y, while impairment losses are seen down -20% y-o-y, driven by improved asset quality. Overall, we project net profit at €900m (+38% y-o-y), consistent with managementguidance.

Optima view | Alpha is set to close FY25 delivering on its financial targets, showing material earnings expansion, albeit off a low base, driven by a more moderate impact from lower rates relative to peers and solid fee income growth. Looking into 2026, profitability should strengthen further, supported by the full-year integration of recent acquisitions (i.e. Astrobank and Axia) and the deepening of the Unicredit partnership. We expect a higher payout – from 50% to 60% – offering compelling capital returns.Management will provide guidance only for 2026 at the results release, with the full 2026–2029 Business Plan to be unveiled at the Capital Markets Day in Q2 2026. Valuation remains attractive with the stock trading at 9.8x P/E 2026e and 1.1x P/TBV 2026e, implying a 5% and 33% discount to European banks respectively.

Table 1 | Quarterly P&L forecasts

(€ m)	Optima 4Q25e	3Q25	QoQ	4Q24	YoY		Consensus 4Q25e	QoQ		Optima vs Cons
Net interest income	418	402	4%	406	3%		414		3%	1%
Fee & rental income	119	120	-1%	114	5%		124		3%	-4%
Core income	537	522	3%	520	3%		538		3%	0%
Trading & other income	40	2	>100%	58	-30%		37		>100%	9%
Total revenues	578	524	10%	578	0%		575		10%	0%
Operating expenses	-244	-214	14%	-239	2%		-237		11%	3%
Pre-Provision Profit	334	310	8%	339	-1%		338		9%	-1%
Loan provisions	-52	-45	15%	-63	-18%		-47		4%	10%
Other	13	12	11%	-5	>100%		11		-8%	21%
Reported Net Profit	196	187	5%	165	19%		204		9%	-4%
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate

Table 2 | Annual P&L forecasts                                      Table 3 | Financial KPIs

(€ m)	Optima 2025e	2024	YoY		Financial KPIs	Optima 2025e	2024a
Net interest income	1,615	1,647	-2%		RoaTBV (%)	11.4%	9.0%
Fee & rental income	468	420	11%		EPS	0.36	0.26
Core income	2,083	2,067	1%		Cost/Income (%)	40%	39%
Trading & other income	128	152	-16%		CoR (%)	0.46%	0.59%
Total revenues	2,211	2,219	0%		NPE ratio (%)	3.6%	3.7%
Operating expenses	-875	-866	1%		CET1 (%)	15.0%	16.3%
Pre-Provision Profit	1,336	1,352	-1%		Source: Optima bank estimates, Company
Loan provisions	-189	-236	-20%
Other	59	-146	-141%
Reported Net Profit	900	654	38%
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company

 

National Bank of Greece || Buy | CP: €13.945 | TP: €15.83

4Q25 Preview | FY25 delivery, capital deployment in focus

4Q25 preview | National Bank of Greece (NBG) is scheduled to report 4Q25 results on Friday, 27 Februarybefore the opening of the ATHEX. Management will host a conference call the same day at 10:30 Athens/12:30 London time. For 4Q the bank is on track to meet its full‑year guidance, supported by strong credit expansion nearing €3bn (vs €2.5bn target) and solid fee income from lending and continued flows into investment products. We expect flat NII amid ongoing spread compression and a seasonal uptick in operating costs, while asset quality remains robust, with the cost of risk running below the 45bps guidance. For FY25 we expect recurring EPS of €1.38 and adj. RoTBV at 15.5%, in line with management targets.

4Q25 results | In more detail, we estimate NII to shape at €525m (flat q-o-q, -9% y-o-y), broadly aligned with median consensus. We also forecast fee income to reach €130m (+13% q-o-q, +14% y-o-y), supported by strong lending-related fees and an ongoing shift from deposits into mutual funds. We project non-core revenues of €10m, implying total revenues of €665m (+3% q-o-q, -6% y-o-y). On the cost side, we expect OpEx of €264m (+13% q-o-q, +7% y-o-y), driven by typical year-end seasonality, implying PPI of €402m (-2% q-o-q, -14% y-o-y).  Loan provisions are projected at €35m (+2% q-o-q, -17% y-o-y), consistent with a 40bps cost of risk. Overall, we estimate net profit of €233m (-15% q-o-q, +34% y-o-y) in 4Q25.

FY25 results | On a full-year basis, we expect NII of €2.1bn (-10% y-o-y) despite strong loan growth of c. €3bn. We project strong fee generation at €467m (+9% y-o-y). We estimate OpEx up 7% y-o-y, while impairment charges are seen down by 17% y-o-y. Overall, we project FY25 net profit at €1.1bn (-4% y-o-y), implying EPS including one-offs of €1.24.

Optima view | NBG is set to close FY25 delivering its financial targets, with 4Q25 confirming that NII has bottomed out, fee income continues to show signs of acceleration, while asset quality remains best-in-class. Going forward, the key focus for the market will be the details of the new Business Plan and critically how management intends to deploy its excess capital. Expectations are high for potential insurance partnerships, asset management initiatives, the evolution of payout ratio and management’s consideration for a potential special dividend. Valuation is not demanding with the stock trading at 10.8x P/E 2026e and 1.4x P/TBV 2026e, implying 12% discount to European banks.

Table 1 | Quarterly P&L forecasts

(€ m)	Optima 4Q25e	3Q25	QoQ	4Q24	YoY		Consensus 4Q25e	QoQ	Optima vs Cons
Net interest income	525	527	0%	575	-9%		528	0%	-1%
Fee & rental income	130	116	13%	115	14%		124	7%	5%
Core income	655	642	2%	689	-5%		652	2%	1%
Trading & other income	10	2	312%	22	-55%		15	525%	-34%
Total revenues	665	644	3%	711	-6%		667	4%	0%
Operating expenses	-264	-234	13%	-246	7%		-258	10%	2%
Pre-Provision Profit	402	410	-2%	466	-14%		409	0%	-2%
Loan provisions	-35	-35	2%	-43	-17%		-36	3%	-1%
Other impairments & one-offs	-60	-15	300%	-206	-71%		-19	27%	216%
Reported Net Profit	233	274	-15%	174	34%		267	-2%	-13%
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate

Table 2 | Annual P&L forecasts                                       Table 3 | Financial KPIs

(€ m)	Optima 2025e	2024	YoY		Financial KPIs	Optima 2025e	2024a
Net interest income	2,131	2,356	-10%		RoaTBV (%)	13.9%	15.5%
Fee & rental income	467	427	9%		EPS	1.24	1.27
Core income	2,598	2,783	-7%		Cost/Income (%)	34%	31%
Trading & other income	159	104	54%		CoR (%)	0.40%	0.53%
Total revenues	2,757	2,887	-4%		NPE ratio (%)	2.4%	2.6%
Operating expenses	-949	-884	7%		CET1 (%)	18.8%	18.3%
Pre-Provision Profit	1,809	2,003	-10%		Source: Optima bank estimates, Company
Loan provisions	-148	-180	-17%
Other	-175	-306	-43%
Reported Net Profit	1,116	1,158	-4%
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company

Eurobank financial calendar update

The bank announced that the AGM will take place on the 28th of April 2026. The ex-dividend date is on 11 May 2026 and dividend payment starting date on 15 May 2026. 

NBG Share Buyback

National Bank of Greece announced that during the period 6/02/2026 – 13/02/2026, it purchased 301,000 own shares, with an average purchase price of € 14.2038 per share and a total cost of € 4,275,329.30. Following the above purchases, NBG holds in total 12,968,755 own shares, which correspond to 1.42% of its share capital. 

Qualco-Engineering International Belgium to Strengthen the EU Parliament’s Digital Systems

Qualco and Engineering International Belgium (ENG Group) JV has been awarded the first position in the cascade for the multiyear framework contract “Provision of Testing and Quality Assurance of IT Solutions” issued by the European Parliament and represented by the DG ITEC. With a duration of five years and a budget of €32,2m, the contract covers a wide breadth of testing and quality assurance services for IT systems used by the European Parliament and EU institutions. 

ElvalHalcor FY25 Results out on 3 March

ElvalHalcor ise set to release its FY25 Results on Tuesday, 3 March after the market close, followed by an analyst’s briefing the next day. 

Fourlis FY25 Results out on 31 March

Fourlis Holdings is set to release its FY25 results on 31/3, after the market close. 

Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp new retail Bond commences trading on ATHE today

As of today, the new 7-year, €250m Retail bond of Capital Clean Energy Carriers, will commence trading on ATHEX. Optima bank was among the coordinators and leading underwriters of the issuance. 

New Legislation Aims to Disrupt Illegal Betting Market in Greece

Greece is introducing a bill to curb illegal gambling by cutting off payment channels, blocking unlicensed sites, and targeting influencer promotions. Illegal gambling draws 800,000 players, generates €1.67b. yearly, and costs the state €500m. in taxes. Young adults—especially 18–34—are most affected, partly because the legal online gambling age of 21 pushes many to unlicensed platforms. Measures include faster blocking of illegal sites, monitoring digital payments, cooperation with EU platforms, and strict penalties or closures for physical venues hosting illegal games. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

26/02/26 | Building Activity NOV (ELSTAT), Economic Sentiment Indicator FEB, Banking System Loans & Deposits JAN (BoG)

27/02/26 | Producer Price Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT), Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC (ELSTAT)

02/03/26 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI FEB

Market

27/02/26 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)

4Q/FY25 Results Release

26/02/26 | Eurobank (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Bank (Bef-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (trading update) (Bef-mkt)

27/02/26 | Alpha Bank (08:00 GR time), National Bank (Bef-mkt), Premia Properties (Bef-mkt), Trastor REIC (Aft-mkt)

02/03/26 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)

03/03/26 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)

04/03/26 | Cenergy Holdings, LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)

05/03/26 | CrediaBank (Aft-mkt), Viohalco

11/03/26 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)

17/03/26 | Trade Estates REIC (Bef-mkt)

18/03/26 | Autohellas (Bef-mkt)

19/03/26 | PPC (Aft-mkt), TITAN, Motodynamics (Aft-mkt)

23/03/26 | AUSTRIACARD (Aft-mkt)

24/03/26 | Athens International Airport (Aft-mkt)

30/03/26 | BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)

31/03/26 | METLEN, Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port Authority (Aft-mkt)

07/04/26 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)

20/04/26 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc, Sunrise Mezz Plc

21/04/26 | Qualco Group (Aft-mkt)

EGM / AGM

02/03/26 | Real Consulting (EGM)

16/03/26 | CrediaBank (EGM), Y/KNOT Invest (EGM)

20/03/26 | Trastor REIC (AGM)

15/04/26 | Athens International Airport (AGM)

21/04/26 | Piraeus Bank (AGM)

22/04/26 | Autohellas (AGM)

28/04/26 | Eurobank (AGM), BriQ Properties (AGM)

30/04/26 | National Bank (AGM)

05/05/26 | Optima bank (AGM)

15/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)

21/05/26 | METLEN (AGM)

12/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM)

26/06/26 | Alpha Bank (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

23/03/26 | JUMBO (extraordinary cash distribution €0.50/share)

25/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (final €0.50/share)

23/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (€ 0.11/share)

Capital Markets Day

05/03/26 | Piraeus Bank

09/03/26 | CrediaBank

Investor Update 2026

03/03/26 | Bank of Cyprus

Corporate Bond Issuance

26/02/26 | Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp – Start of trading of new bonds