We expect ATHEX to move higher today, with Piraeus Financial Holdings in focus.
Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.30% at 1,731.36 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.06%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.83%, Banks Index: -0.34%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 98.9m, down from Friday’s EUR 191.0m.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek PMI down in April
· Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – April 2025
· Piraeus Financial Holdings 1Q25 results out today
· National Bank of Greece plans to open branch in Saudi Arabia-Press
· Titan America releases a solid set of 1Q25 Results, despite adverse weather and drop in demand
· CENERGY sees US operations EBITDA up to $300m by 2029e
· Aktor Group FY24 Results Conference Call Highlights
· Athens Airport announces scrip dividend stock offer price
· Sarantis 1Q25 trading update
· OPAP trades ex-dividend tomorrow
Macro Headlines
Greek PMI down in April
The Greek PMI index recorded 53.2 points in April, a decline from 55.0 points in March. This indicates an improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector, albeit at a slower pace.
Sector Headlines
Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – April 2025
Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share rose to 49.9% in April 2025 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 89.05/MWh, down by EUR 16.9/MWh m-o-m and up by EUR 28.94/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 4,186GWh, down by 4.2% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 20.45% (21.13% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 11.19%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 5.61% and MOH’s NRG with 4.31%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in April 2025 was down by 0.5% m-o-m at 49.4%, just below the EU-mandated 50% mark. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 50% of total (vs. 52% in March), Natural Gas follows with 27% (vs. 34% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 2% (2%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 1% (0%) and 2% (2%) respectively and finally, Imports 17% (10%).
Company Headlines
Piraeus Financial Holdings 1Q25 results out today
Piraeus Financial Holdings will report 1Q25 results today at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time and management will host a conference call at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London Time. We anticipate a strong start to the year and net profit to amplify both on a sequential (lower OpEx, LLPs, lack of one-offs) and on a yearly basis (higher fee income, lower LLPs). We estimate net profit to shape at EUR 270.5m (+47% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y) in 1Q25, 4% lower than consensus estimate of EUR 283.0m. Recall that 4Q24 results were burdened by one-off costs of EUR 213.6m. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 6.50/share, implying 26% potential upside.
National Bank of Greece plans to open branch in Saudi Arabia-Press
Press reports (euro2day) indicate that National Bank of Greece plans to open a branch in Riyadh-Saudi Arabia.
Titan America releases a solid set of 1Q25 Results, despite adverse weather and drop in demand
Titan America reported a solid set of 1Q25, showing a decrease in sales to $392.4m from $400.1m in the same period of the previous year, a 13.0% increase in net income, reaching $33.4m compared to $29.5m in 1124, while adjusted EBITDA also saw an increase of 11.7%, amounting to $79.8m compared to $71.4m in 1Q24. Titan America attributed its solid performance to resilient pricing strategies that helped counterbalance adverse weather conditions and a downturn in residential market demand. Cash flow provided by operations was $35.2m, with capital expenditures at $32.5m, resulting in a free cash flow of $2.7m. As of March 31, 2025, Titan America held $143.2 million in cash and cash equivalents, with total debt standing at $462.0 million. Looking ahead, Titan America reaffirmed its growth outlook for 2025, anticipating revenue growth in the mid-single-digit percent range and modest improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins compared to 2024. We will revert with Group estimates for Titan’s 1Q25e.
CENERGY sees US operations EBITDA up to $300m by 2029e
During a presentation in ATHEX held yesterday, the management of Cenergy reportedly stated that it expects the contribution from the US plant when it reaches full capacity up to EUR 250-300m by 2029. Additionally, the management said that it sees minor impact from the US tariffs, as the US exports account for less than 3% of Group Revenue, reiterating the Guidance for 2025e EBITDA at EUR 300-330m.
Aktor Group FY24 Results Conference Call Highlights
During yesterday’s conference call, Aktor Group’s management stressed the following:
a) Expects the approval from the regulatory authorities for the acquisition of ELLAKTOR Concessions in the next two months
b) Reiterates guidance for 2025 EBITDA Profitability at EUR 180m and EUR 430m by 2030e
c) Targets at an RES capacity of 230MW by year and, mainly through acquisitions, and 1.3GW in the medium term
d) Approval of the grid maintenance company ENTELECHEIA is also expected soon
e) Closing of the Prodea Real Estate portfolio acquisition is expected in 2Q25
f) Corporate transformation to be completed by September 2025, with 5 pillars (construction, RES, concessions/PPPs, Facility Management and Real Estate) under the holding company
g) Relaunch of dividend policy most probably from FY26 onwards (payable in 2027)
Athens Airport announces scrip dividend stock offer price
The Airport of Athens announced that in the context of its scrip dividend programme, the new shares offer price on which the beneficiaries can reinvest their cash dividend, shaped at EUR 8.88/share (equal to VWAP of the 25/04-02/05/2025 period minus 3%).
Sarantis 1Q25 trading update
The company posted a solid set of results with revenues came in at EUR 141.9m, up by 0.2% y-o-y, in 1Q25. In terms of profitability, EBITDA of the group increased by 4.8%, to EUR 19.4m with increased margin at 13.7% vs. 13.1% in 1Q24, while EBIT reached EUR 14.8m, up by 8.7% y-o-y. Finally, the company is in net cash position of EUR 5.7m, one year after the acquisition of Stella Pack. Management reiterated its guidance for FY25 (sales to EUR 628m, EBITDA of EUR 92m, up by 12.7% y-o-y, and FCF of EUR 68m).
OPAP trades ex-dividend tomorrow
OPAP will trade tomorrow ex-final dividend of EUR 0.80 per share (DY: 4.0%).
Calendar of Events
Macros
08/05/25 | Trade Balance MAR (ELSTAT)
09/05/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI APR (ELSTAT), Industrial Production MAR (ELSTAT)
14/05/25 | Import Price Index in Industry MAR
16/05/25 | Fitch Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review
1Q:25 Results Release
06/05/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Sarantis (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
08/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement
09/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (Bef-mkt)
12/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
13/05/25 | KRI-KRI (Aft-mkt)
14/05/25 | Optima bank, OTE (Bef-mkt)
15/05/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Attica Bank
19/05/25 | Austriacard (Aft-mkt)
20/05/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
21/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Quest Holding (Aft-mkt)
22/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (trading update) (Bef-mkt), AS Company (trading update) (Aft-mkt)
23/05/25 | Premia Properties (trading update)
26/05/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings, Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
28/05/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM), Premia Properties (AGM)
14/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (AGM)
15/05/25 | Performance Technologies (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM), Loulis Food (AGM)
22/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (AGM), Thessaloniki Water Supply (AGM), Alpha Trust Holdings (AGM)
23/05/25 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM), Fais Group (AGM)
28/05/25 | Thrace Plastics (AGM)
29/05/25 | Profile Systems (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
10/06/25 | EYDAP (AGM)
11/06/25 | Jumbo (AGM), Prodea Investments (AGM)
12/06/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)
13/06/25 | Trade Estates (AGM), Interlife (AGM)
16/06/25 | Ble Kedros (AGM)
17/06/25 | Alter Ego Media (AGM)
18/06/25 | Motor Oil (AGM), Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM), AS Company (AGM), Mevaco (AGM), Petropoulos (AGM)
20/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM), Sunrise Mezz Plc (AGM)
23/06/25 | OTE (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
26/06/25 | LAMDA Development (AGM)
01/07/25 | ΚΡΙ–ΚΡΙ (AGM)
02/07/25 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)
03/07/25 | Elinoil (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
15/07/25 | AVAX (AGM)
18/07/25 | Alpha Real Estate Services (AGM)
22/07/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (AGM)
28/08/25 | Intralot (AGM)
08/09/25 | Orilina Properties (AGM)
Ex-Capital Return
03/06/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (EUR 0.298/share)
Ex-FY24 Dividend
07/05/25 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.80), BriQ Properties (EUR 0.135)
15/05/25 | Premia Properties (EUR 0.03)
16/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (EUR 2.00)
19/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.32)
20/05/25 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.80)
23/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (EUR 0.03)
26/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (EUR 0.479), Loulis Food (EUR 0.30)
27/05/25 | Alpha Trust Holdings (EUR 0.578)
03/06/25 | National Bank of Greece (EUR 0.44), Noval Property (EUR 0.043), Performance Technologies
10/06/25 | Thrace Plastics (remaining EUR 0.17)
16/06/25 | Prodea Investments
18/06/25 | EYDAP (EUR 0.07)
19/06/25 | Trade Estates (remaining EUR 0.052)
23/06/25 | Optima bank (EUR 0.57), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.29), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.30), Ble Kedros
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14), Viohalco (EUR 0.16)
25/06/25 | Motor Oil (remaining EUR 1.10), GEK TERNA (EUR 0.40)
26/06/25 | ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.09)
27/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (EUR 0.15)
30/06/25 | Titan Cement (EUR 3.00), Euroconsultants (EUR 0.04)
01/07/25 | Profile Systems (EUR 0.064657), Thessaloniki Water Supply, AUSTRIACARD Holdings (EUR 0.11)
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (remaining EUR 0.55), Interlife (EUR 0.20)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
04/07/25 | Mevaco
10/07/25 | AS Company (EUR 0.17)
21/07/25 | PPC (EUR 0.40)
23/07/25 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 0.50)
04/08/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (EUR 1.92)
21/08/25 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.40)
25/08/25 | ADMIE Holding
02/09/25 | AVAX (EUR 0.07)
11/09/25 | Orilina Properties
Share Capital Increase (Evropi Holdings)
02/05/25-13/05/25 | Trading period of rights
02/05/25-16/05/25 | Exercise period of rights
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