Greek Market Watch: PMI, National Bank, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Financial Holdings, Motor Oil, METLEN, Athens Airport, Aegean Airlines, Fourlis

Market Comment

ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 1.43% to 2,023.80 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.53%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.58%, Banks Index: +2.17%) and the traded value was shaped at €227.5m, down from Friday’s €350.5m. We expect the international markets to set the tone today. 

Today’s Headlines

·         Greek PMI jumps in October

·         NBG 3Q/9M25e Results Preview: solid quarter, on track to meet FY guidance

·         Eurobank to issue an AT1 Bond

·         Alpha Bank Completes AstroBank Acquisition

·         Piraeus Financial Holdings Share Buyback

·         MOH to distribute an interim DPS of €0.35

·         METLEN non-financial, operating trading Update out on Thursday bmo

·         Mr. Mytilineos acquires additional company shares

·         Millenium Capital lowers its short position in METLEN

·         AIA 9M25 results out

·         Aegean Airlines 3Q/9M25 results on 11 November

·         Fourlis Group 3Q/9M results on 25 November 

Macro Headlines 

Greek PMI jumps in October

Greek PMI posted 53.5 in October, from 52.0 in the previous month, signalling a quicker improvement in operating conditions in the sector, which was the second-fastest since March (surpassed only by August). 

Company Headlines 

NBG 3Q/9M25e Results Preview: solid quarter, on track to meet FY guidance

3Q25e Preview | National Bank of Greece is set to report 3Q/9M25 results on Thursday 06 November, before market the opening and management will host a conference call on the same day at 10:30 Athens/ 08:30 London Time. We anticipate another resilient quarter, with NII slightly down due to the lower rates and NIM during the quarter which offset the mild credit expansion. Fee income is expected to remain strong, driven by volumes; hence core income is expected flattish q-o-q at €644.6m (in line with consensus). On the flip side, trading gains and other income are expected to be weak q-o-q (on a tough comparable). On the cost side, opex is expected marginally up by 1% q-o-q to €226.3m, consequently PPI is seen 10% lower q-o-q to €428.7m, slightly consensus estimate of €423m. Finally, assuming a CoR of 42bps and €25m one-off loss towards the school renovation programme, we see Net Profit landing at €269m (Consensus at €262m), down by 13% q-o-q and by 15% y-o-y. We also anticipate performing loans and deposits to be higher q-o-q and asset quality trends to remain positive. The stock is trading 1.40x P/TBV25e, at 17% discount to its European peers, with RoaTBV (14.9% in 25e vs. 16.9% of EU banks) and its dividend yield (5.0% at par with EU banks).

9M25 Preview | We project that net profit will come in at EUR 880.0m (-10.6% y-o-y), on lower NII of €1,608m (-9.7% y-o-y), fee income of €336.9m, increased by (+7.7% y-o-y) and lower LLPs and other impairments (-9% y-o-y). 

Table 1 | Quarterly Group P&L forecasts

(EUR m)		Optima 3Q25e		2Q25		QoQ		3Q24		YoY				Cons 3Q25e		QoQ		Optima vs Cons
Net Interest Income		528.6		531.2		0%		589.3		-10%				527.0		-1%		0.3%
Fee income		116.0		115.3		1%		107.6		8%				117.0		1%		-0.9%
Core income		644.6		646.5		0%		696.9		-8%				644.0		0%		0.1%
Non-core Revenues		10.4		52.7		-80%		17.7		-41%				8.0		-85%		30.0%
Total revenues		655.0		699.2		-6%		714.6		-8%				652.0		-7%		0.5%
Operating Expenses		(226.3)		(224.6)		1%		(217.3)		4%				(229.0)		2%		-1.2%
Pre Provision Profit		428.7		474.6		-10%		497.3		-14%				423.0		-11%		1.3%
LLP and other impairments		(41.8)		(45.9)		-9%		(51.6)		-19%				(42.1)		-8%		-0.7%
Reported Net Profit		269.0		310.2		-13%		314.7		-15%				262.0		-16%		2.7%

Source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate 

Table 2 | Interim Group P&L forecasts

(EUR m)		Optima 9M25e		9M24		YoY
Net Interest Income		1,608.2		1,781.5		-10%
Fee income		336.9		312.7		8%
Core income		1,945.1		2,094.2		-7%
Non-core Revenues		157.5		81.8		93%
Total revenues		2102.6		2176.0		-3%
Operating Expenses		(677.4)		(638.5)		6%
Pre Provision Profit		1425.2		1537.5		-7%
LLP and other impairments		(130.1)		(158.7)		-18%
Reported Net Profit		880.0		984.9		-11%

source: Optima bank estimates 

Eurobank to issue an AT1 Bond

According to Bloomberg, Eurobank is issuing an AT1 Bond aiming to raise €600m, with an initial Pricing at 6.625%. 

Alpha Bank Completes AstroBank Acquisition

Alpha Bank A.E. announced that has finalized the acquisition of substantially all assets, liabilities, and personnel of AstroBank. The transaction, aligned with Alpha Bank’s strategic goal to strengthen its market position in Cyprus and is expected to be EPS accretive by c. 5%, with a limited CET1 impact of c. 40bps. Completion marks the final milestone of the agreement announced in February 2025. 

Piraeus Financial Holdings Share Buyback

Piraeus Bank announced that during the period 27/10/2025 – 31/10/2025, it purchased 3,305,000 own shares, with an average purchase price of EUR 6.9269 per share and a total cost of EUR 22,893,653.55. Following the above purchases, Piraeus Bank holds in total 12,343,242 own shares, representing 0.99% of its share capital. 

MOH to distribute an interim DPS of €0.35

Motor Oil announced declared yesterday an interim dividend of €0.35/share (DY: 1.3%, ex-date: 23 December), up from €0.30/share a year ago.

Comment: the increased distribution in our view signals the company’s confidence for a strong 2H25, as also implied by the benchmark refining margins, the uninterrupted operation of the refinery following the restoration of the distillation unit and the contribution from the Thermal Plant with GEKTERNA. 

METLEN non-financial, operating trading Update out on Thursday bmo

METLEN will release its 3Q25 Trading Update this Thursday before the market opening, which will provide only sales and operating data for the company’s performance (as is usually the case in the LSE listed companies). That said, we expect a strong 3Q25e, with sales at €1.5bn, down by 12.5% y-o-y mainly due to lower day ahead electricity market prices, which offset the stronger Thermal Generation output, the market shares gains in the electricity supply business and the booming momentum in Metka’s construction activity. RES contribution is expected to remain solida, with no major surprises, as there was no big scale announcements this quarter (we expect however significant developments from the Asset Rotation BU, and more specifically from the maturing Chile RES and Battery portfolio as well as the ongoing tender for the Australian portfolio). With regards to the Metals Business Unit, we see similar to 2Q25 trends, both in utilization rates and also aluminium premia. In our view, key short-term catalysts for the stock are the potential reclassification of Metlen stock to developed markets from MSCI (announcements are due today after the market close) and the special event this Thursday, during which the company will present the new corporate structure and management team. 

Mr. Mytilineos acquires additional company shares

In an official bourse filing, METLEN’s Chairman and CEO announced the acquisition of 15k company shares at an average price of €44.11/share. 

Millenium Capital lowers its short position in METLEN

According to HCMC, Millennium Capital Management lowered its short position to MTLN to 0.88381% from 0.92494% in the previous notification. 

AIA 9M25 results out

The Airport of Athens released its 9M25 results, with revenues up by 3.5% y-o-y to €526.9m, driven by an increase in both segments, with air activities up by 2.5% y-o-y to €397.5m, representing 75.4% of total, while non-air activities revenues stood at €129.5m, up by 6.7% y-o-y.  Total passenger traffic in 9M25 reached a new record high at 26.2m passengers, up by 6.7% y-o-y, with international passengers up by 8.5% and domestic passengers up by 2.2% y-o-y, reflecting the resilient travel demand during all the quarters of the year. Turning to profitability, adj. EBITDA stood at €335.6m, down by 1.3% y-o-y, while net profit reached €185.8m, down by 4.8% y-o-y, due to the impact of the depletion of the Air Activities Carry Forward amount, and higher operating expenses. Management highlighted that the Airport expansion programme is on track, with the construction of the Multi Storey Car Park and the Northwest Apron Area commenced in July 2025 and is progressing on schedule, with delivery expected in 2Q27. The Main Terminal Building expansion tender, launched under an ECI model, remains on track with preferred bidder selection anticipated in early 2026. 

Aegean Airlines 3Q/9M25 results on 11 November

Aegean Airlines announced that it will publish its results on Tuesday 11 November after the market closing. 

Fourlis Group 3Q/9M results on 25 November

Fourlis Group announced that it will publish its results on Tuesday 25 November after the market closing. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

07/11/25 | Trade Balance SEP (ELSTAT)

07/11/25 | Scope Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review

10/11/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI OCT (ELSTAT), Industrial Production SEP (ELSTAT)

14/11/25 | Import Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)

14/11/25 | Fitch Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review

Market

05/11/25 | MSCI Index Review announcement (Effective date: November 25, 2025)

24/11/25 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)

3Q/9M25 Results Release

06/11/25 | National Bank of Greece (Bef-mkt), ΤΙΤΑΝ, METLEN

07/11/25 | Alpha Bank (08:00 GR Time)

11/11/25 | Optima bank, Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt)

13/11/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Austriacard Holdings

17/11/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Lavipharm (Aft-mkt)

18/11/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Bef-mkt)

19/11/25 | Cenergy Holdings, Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), Quest Holdings (Aft-mkt)

20/11/25 | CrediaBank, Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt)

21/11/25 | Premia Properties

24/11/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)

25/11/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)

27/11/25 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)

EGM / AGM

04/11/25 | Kiriacoulis (EGM)

07/11/25 | Intracom Holdings (EGM)

13/11/25 | Frigoglass (EGM)

20/11/25 | E.In.S. (EGM)

03/12/25 | Eurobank Holdings (EGM),

Ex-Dividend

05/11/25 | BriQ Properties (interim €0.08/share)

06/11/25 | Eurobank (interim €0.04681/share)

10/11/25 | National Bank of Greece (interim dividend)

01/12/25 | Alpha Bank (interim €0.0481668788/share)

02/12/25 | CNL CAPITAL (interim €0.15/share)

22/12/25 | ELLAKTOR (interim €0.50/share)

23/12/25 | Motor Oil (interim €0.35/share)