We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels, with PPC, OTE and Aegean Airlines in the spotlight.
Today’s Headlines
· PPC 3Q/9M24 Results – Solid quarter, in line with our estimates; Management reiterates EBITDA target of EUR 1.8bn and Net Profits of EUR 350m 3.8GW RES projects Under construction or Ready to build; Focus on today’s business presentation for 2025-27e
· HELLENiQ ENERGY 3Q24e preview | Soft Quarter, driven by weak refining environment; Yearly forecasts and TP Under Review
· Aegean Airlines 3Q24 results Preview | Strong competition impacts results
· OTE 3Q/9M24 results out today
· Lamda Development 9M24 results out
· Autohellas’ 3Q/9M24 results out
· Coca Cola HBC issued new bond
· Corinth Pipeworks completes strategic capacity expansion
· Bank of Cyprus extended the CEO term until 2028
· Thrivest Holdings holds a 18.34% stake in Attica Bank
· Motodynamics Group CFO will retire
Company Headlines
PPC || BUY | CP: EUR 12.30 | TP: 17.40
3Q/9M24 Results – Solid quarter, in line with our estimates; Management reiterates EBITDA target of EUR 1.8bn and Net Profits of EUR 350m 3.8GW RES projects Under construction or Ready to build; Focus on today’s business presentation for 2025-27e
Facts: PPC reported in 9M24 turnover of EUR 6.58bn (+19.2% y-o-y, due to the contribution from Romania and Kotsovolos, which more than offset the market share losses), recurring EBITDA of EUR 1,348m (+43.9% y-o-y, 1.2% above our estimate), Net Profits at EUR 122m, and adjusted net profits after minorities at EUR 240.9m (mainly HEDNO and partnership with RWE). Net debt increased to EUR 4.6bn (2.7x net debt/EBITDA), up by EUR 1.4bn y-t-d driven by large capex of EUR 1.6bn (80% of which towards RES and distribution), remaining however below the 3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA mark. The management reiterated the annual EBITDA guidance of EUR 1.8bn and EUR 350m Net profits after minorities.
PPC 9M24 Key P&L Results
|
EUR m |
9M23 |
9M24 |
y-o-y |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
|
Turnover |
5,523.6 |
6,582.4 |
19.2% |
6,480.0 |
1.6% |
|
EBITDA |
915.5 |
1,226.5 |
34.0% |
1,283.7 |
-4.5% |
|
EBITDA adj. |
936.8 |
1,348.0 |
43.9% |
1,331.7 |
1.2% |
|
Net income after minorities |
225.7 |
122.0 |
-46.0% |
187.2 |
-34.8% |
|
Net income after minorities (adj.) |
143.5 |
240.9 |
67.9% |
224.7 |
7.2% |
Source: Optima bank, The Company
9M24 analysis: Electricity demand in Greece and Romania during 9M24 was up by 7% and 4% respectively, offsetting to some extent the market share losses in Greece (average market share during 9M24 dropped to 51% from 57% in 9M23), while PPC’s market share in Romania stood at 16%. Consequently, total revenues rose by 19.2% y-o-y to EUR 6,582bn, driven by the inclusion of the Romanian operations. On the expenditures front, oil-related expenses rose by 3.2% while natural gas costs dropped marginally by 0.3%, (driven by lower TTF prices which offset the higher output, TTF gas futures in 9M24 at 31.7 EUR/MWh from EUR 40.7/MWh a year ago). Driven by lower CO2 prices, CO2 costs dropped by 2.8% y-o-y to EUR 607.5m in 9M24. Additionally, the lower average DAM in 9M24 drove energy purchase costs lower by 16.4% y-o-y to EUR 1,255.2m. Moreover, personnel costs (including Romania) rose by 25.9% y-o-y to EUR 681.2m, and finally, bad debt provisions in 9M24 dropped to EUR 123.9m from EUR 143.9m last year. Below EBITDA, depreciation expenses were up by 45.6% y-o-y at EUR 683.6m (due to the inclusion of Romania and also RES additions), while net financial expenses jumped by 30.3% y-o-y to EUR 260.8m. FCF generation remained negative in 9M24 at EUR 877.7m due to the huge capex of EUR 1,600m, the adverse WC movement of EUR 820m and the EUR 245m towards share repurchases and dividend payments which more than offset the healthy gross operating cash flow generation of EUR 1,424m. Consequently, Group net debt rose by EUR 1.4bn y-t-d to EUR 4.6bn, implying a net debt/EBITDA of 2.7x.
Business plan presentation today: Investors focus shifts to the presentation of the updated financial targets and strategy for 2025-27e during today’s conference call at 14.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
HELLENiQ ENERGY || Under Review | Target Price U/R | CP: EUR 6.815
3Q24e preview | Soft Quarter, driven weak refining environment; Yearly forecasts and TP Under Review
3Q/9M24e results preview | HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 3Q24e results today, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled also for today day at 18.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 168m (-58% y-o-y, slightly above consensus estimate of EUR 165m) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 24m (consensus at EUR 39m) from EUR 218m in 3Q23. Accounting for the negative impact from inventory and other one-offs of EUR 50m, IFRS EBITDA and net income are seen at EUR 118m and loss of EUR 135m (assuming EUR 175m provision for the solidarity tax) respectively compared to EBITDA of EUR 505m and EUR 300m net profits in 3Q23.
3Q/9M24e Group Key P&L Estimates
|
EUR m |
3Q23 |
3Q24e |
YoY |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Conensus |
9M23 |
9M24e |
YoY |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
505 |
118 |
-77% |
905 |
662 |
-27% |
||
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
400 |
168 |
-58% |
165 |
1.8% |
968 |
750 |
-23% |
|
refining |
327 |
95 |
-71% |
807 |
569 |
-29% |
||
|
marketing |
54 |
51 |
-6% |
98 |
97 |
-1% |
||
|
petchems |
8 |
13 |
63% |
35 |
55 |
57% |
||
|
RES/other |
13 |
13 |
0% |
34 |
33 |
-3% |
||
|
IFRS Net Income*, ** |
300 |
-135 |
nm |
462 |
-75 |
-116% |
||
|
“Adjusted” Net Income* |
218 |
24 |
-89% |
39 |
-38.0% |
496 |
279 |
-44% |
Source: Optima Bank, the Company
* Estimates are compiled based on the contribution from 11 brokerage firms
Aegean Airlines || CP: EUR 9.80 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 14.70
3Q24 results Preview | Strong competition impacts results
3Q24 results preview | Aegean Airlines is set to release 3Q24 results today, after market close. We expect a weaker quarter y-o-y on top line, derived from lower load factors and reduced international traffic. We forecast 3Q24 group revenues of EUR 631.0m (-3.5% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 181.1m (-20.5% y-o-y), affected by increased OpEx (higher fleet maintenance costs and increased fuel & leasing needs) with the respective margin at 28.7% in 3Q24 vs. 34.9% in 3Q23. Further down the P&L, we expect higher depreciation cost and lower financial expenses positively affected by FX gains following the dollar movement, driving Net profit down to EUR 102.9m vs. EUR 133.5m in 3Q23.
3Q24 Key forecasts
|
EUR m |
3Q23 |
3Q24e |
Y-o-Y |
9M23 |
9M24 |
Y-o-Y |
|
Revenues |
653.6 |
631.0 |
-3.5% |
1331.8 |
1380.1 |
3.6% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(423.6) |
(449.9) |
6.2% |
(957.1) |
(1039.6) |
-2.9% |
|
EBITDA |
227.8 |
181.1 |
-20.5% |
374.7 |
340.5 |
-9.1% |
|
mgn (%) |
34.9% |
28.7% |
-610bps |
19.6% |
15.1% |
-450bps |
|
Net Profit |
133.5 |
102.9 |
-22.9% |
178.0 |
137.7 |
-22.6% |
|
Key Statistics |
3Q23 |
3Q24e |
Y-o-Y |
9M23 |
9M24 |
Y-o-Y |
|
ASKs m |
6.768 |
6.707 |
-0.9% |
15.369 |
16.241 |
5.7% |
|
Domestic passengers |
2.143 |
2.266 |
5.7% |
4.857 |
5.222 |
7.5% |
|
International passengers |
3.174 |
3.064 |
-3.5% |
7.099 |
7.361 |
3.7% |
|
Total passengers |
5.317 |
5.330 |
0.2% |
11.956 |
12.583 |
5.2% |
|
Load factor |
86.0% |
84.0% |
-2.0pp |
83.2% |
82.5% |
-0.9pp |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
OTE 3Q/9M24 results out today
OTE is set to report 3Q/9M24 results today, before the opening of ATHEX. We expect a weak quarter burdened by the poor performance and a one-off tax cost in Romania. Thus, we estimate group revenues to come in at EUR 906.6m (+2.7% y-o-y) in 3Q24, EBITDA AL at EUR 355.4m (+0.3% y-o-y) and net profit at EUR 139.4m (-8.2% y-o-y). Management will host a CC at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time.
Lamda Development 9M24 results out
LAMDA Development announced 9M24 retail (Malls) EBITDA (excluding revaluation gains) of EUR 66 (+7% y-o-y), EBITDA from the Ellinikon project of EUR 31m (from negative EBITDA of EUR 20m a year ago, EBITDA from Marinas at EUR 16m (+14% vs. a year ago) and net losses (i.e. including non-cash finance costs, depreciation and deferred taxes) of EUR 14m vs. losses of EUR 6.1m a year ago. The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Group amounted to EUR 1,4bn as of 30 September 2024 (EUR 7.93/share, implying a 8.6% discount to yesterday’s closing price) compared to EUR 1,392m or EUR 8.02/share as at 31 December 2023. Finally, total cash proceeds from property sales/leases in the Ellinikon reached EUR 967m, with the group total cash balance approaching EUR 633m
Autohellas’ 3Q/9M24 results out
Autohellas reported revenues of EUR 275.9m (-3.4% y-o-y), driven by weaker performance from the car trade business which was not offset by higher rental activity both domestically and internationally. Group EBITDA reached EUR 98.9m (+4.7% y-o-y) while net profits reached EUR 37.8m, posting an 8.0% y-o-y decrease. In 9M24 terms, sales decline marginally by -1.8% to EUR 749.1, due to weak car trade activity of EUR 385.9m (-8.0% y-o-y) driven by the lack of unfulfilled orders from previous years and despite the 6.9% sales growth from the domestic rentals segment. On the profitability front, Group EBITDA reached EUR 219.7m, up by 2.6% while net profit recorded a 5.5% y-o-y increase to EUR 72.0m (positively affected by the EUR 8m and EUR 1m dividend receipts from Aegean Airlines and Trade Estates respectively). It is noted that the activity of Italian Motion (FIAT/JEEP/Alfa Romeo) is not included in consolidated revenues and recorded sales of EUR 116.4m in 9M24, enhancing the Group’s overall activity.
Coca Cola HBC issued new bond
Reportedly (Bloomberg), Coca-Cola HBC announced that its subsidiary Coca-Cola HBC Finance issued a 8yr note of EUR 500m at a yield of 3.125%. The notes will be guaranteed by Coca-Cola HBC.
Corinth Pipeworks completes strategic capacity expansion
Cenergy Holdings announces that Corinth Pipeworks, completed its capacity expansion investment with the installation of a new, dedicated finishing line in a separate covered area, which will enable the execution of two steel pipe projects in parallel.
Bank of Cyprus extended the CEO term until 2028
Bank of Cyprus announced that the BoD decided to extend the appointment of Mr Panicos Nicolaou, as Group CEO to 31 December 2028.
Thrivest Holdings holds a 18.34% stake in Attica Bank
Attica Bank announced that Thrivest Holdings Ltd increased its stake after the share capital increase to 18.34% (66,032,267 common shares) from 8.71% previously.
Motodynamics Group CFO will retire
The company announced that the Group CFO Mr. Dimitris Bozas will retire and will be replaced by Mrs. Magdalini Rizou as of 01.01.25. Mrs. Magdalini Rizou is now a Deputy Group CFO and was the Accounting Manager of the Group.
Calendar of Events
Macros
14/11/24 | Import Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
15/11/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises 3Q24 & SEP (ELSTAT)
20/11/24 | Current Account Balance SEP (BoG) & Turnover Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
22/11/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
25/11/24 | MSCI Index rebalancing (Aft-mkt)
3Q/9M24 Results Release
14/11/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings (Aft-mkt), Lavipharm
18/11/24 | Cenergy Holdings
20/11/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
21/11/24 | Ideal Holdings (Bef-mkt)
25/11/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
26/11/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
12/12/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
15/11/24 | BriQ Properties (EGM), Intercontinental International REIC (EGM)
19/11/24 | Intrakat (EGM)
22/11/24 | ILYDA (EGM)
24/12/24 | MED (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)
23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)
Warrants – Attica Bank
08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period
04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares
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