Greek Market Watch: Retail Electricity Market, AIA passengers, Metlen acquisition, Aegean Airlines suspension of flights, OTE Preview, PPC Preview, Epsilon Net public offer, OTE buyback

MARKET COMMENT

ATHEX recorded heavy losses for a second consecutive session, underperforming the European stock markets, amidst worries over the US macros and intensifying geopolitical risk. In more detail, the General Index tumbled by 6.27% at 1,341.23 units (FTSE Large Cap: -6.53%, FTSE Mid Cap: -6.26% Banks Index: -7.56%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 234.8m, up from Friday’s EUR 124.1m. We expect the developments in the Middle East and the international markets to set the tone in ATHEX today.   

Today’s Headlines

·         Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – July 2024

·         Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for July

·         METLEN (Mytilineos) considers acquisition of AVAX (press)

·         Aegean Airlines extends the suspension of flights to Beirut and Tel Aviv

·         OTE 2Q2024 Preview | All eyes on the CEO statements, Bottom line higher

·         PPC results out today amc

·         PPC renews its share buyback programme

·         Ginger Digital Bidco S.A. holds 95.63% of Epsilon Net

·         OTE Share buyback 

HEADLINES

Sector Headlines

Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – July 2024

Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share dropped to 45.4% in July 2024 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 135.18/MWh, up by EUR 36.3/MWh m-o-m and by EUR 22.5/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 6,658/GWh, up by 15.3% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 14.54% (17.26% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 10.19%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 5.76% and MOH’s NRG with 5.44%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in July 2024 rose by 2.1% m-o-m to 54.6%, well above the EU-mandated 50% mark. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 40% of total (vs. 42% in June), Natural Gas follows with 36% (vs. 36% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 5% (6%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 5% (3%) and 4% (2%) respectively and finally, Imports 10% (10%). 

Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for July

Athens International Airport (AIA) released its passenger traffic data for July 2024, according to which total passenger traffic up by 9.3% y-o-y, driven by international traffic (up by 10.8% YoY), while domestic traffic was also up +5.9% y-o-y. For the 7M24 total passenger traffic was up by +14.6% y-o-y, reaching 17.6m passengers with international passengers up by 17.6% (12.4m passengers) y-o-y and domestic passengers up by 8.0% y-o-y. 

Company Headlines

METLEN (Mytilineos) considers acquisition of AVAX (press)

According to Kathimerini, METLEN (Mytilineos) is considering the acquisition of the construction & concessions group, AVAX, to merge it with its construction and concessions subsidiary, METKA, with a major shareholder of the latter remaining in the management of the new entity after the merger. 

Aegean Airlines extends the suspension of flights to Beirut and Tel Aviv

According to press reports the company is extending the suspension of all scheduled flights to and from Beirut and Tel Aviv until Thursday, August 8, due to the recent events in the Middle East.

OTE || NEUTRAL | CP: EUR 14.03 | TP: EUR 15.10

2Q2024 Preview | All eyes on the CEO statements, Bottom line higher  

Event: OTE is scheduled to report 2Q/1H2024 results on Wednesday 07 August before the opening of the market and management will host a CC at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time.

Optima View: We anticipate investors to focus on the new CEO statement about his vision, strategy and goals rather than on the results. As far as the 2Q results is concerned, we anticipate top line to keep on gaining momentum in Greece but EBITDA to grow marginally due to the weak performance of Telekom Mobile Romania and bottom line to accelerate on lower depreciation.    

2Q24 results: We project group revenues to increase by 6.8% y-o-y to EUR 914.3m on the back of higher revenues from retail fixed services (+2.4% y-o-y), driven by FTTH, revenues from wholesale services (+15.1% y-o-y) and other revenues (+26.8% y-o-y), whilst on the other side we forecast mobile service revenues to drop by 5.7% y-o-y. We also estimate adjusted EBITDA after lease to come in at EUR 328.2m (+0.4% y-o-y) and the respective margin to squeeze to 35.9% from 38.2% in 2Q23 on higher OpEx (+9.2% y-o-y). Below the EBITDA line, we expect depreciation expenses of EUR 162.6m (-5% y-o-y) and net financial expenses of EUR 4.6m. Hence, we estimate net profit to reach EUR 121.9m (+9.0% y-o-y).  

1H2024 results: We forecast group revenues to reach EUR ca1.79bn (+7.9% y-o-y), adjusted EBITDA after lease to come in at EUR 654.2m (+0.6% y-o-y), with the respective margin at 36.5% vs. 39.2% in 1H23 and finally net profit to shape at EUR 263.1m (+12.7% y-o-y).

  Source: Company, Optima Research

PPC || BUY | CP: EUR 10.46 | TP: 17.40

1H24e Preview – Solid first half, in trajectory to meet the annual recurring EBITDA guidance

1H24e Results Preview | PPC is scheduled to release its 1H24 results today, post market close, with a conference call scheduled the same day at 18.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). We expect Group turnover of EUR 4,012 (+12%% YoY, of which c EUR 985m from Romania) and recurring EBITDA of EUR 898m (+52.2% YoY, supported by the EUR c160m contribution from Romania). Assuming EUR 41m one-offs, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 856.3m (vs. EUR 578.3m last year) and net profits of EUR 174m, (also supported by Romania), compared to net profits of EUR 181.5m in 1H23. Finally, accounting for EUR 60m minorities (Minority in HEDNO and also partnership with RWE in the RES), we expect Net Profits after minorities to shape at EUR 114m (down by 35% y-o-y, also burdened by increased financial expenses and depreciation. 

1H24e key P&L forecasts

Source: Optima bank, The Company, Bloomberg Consensus

PPC renews its share buyback programme

PPC announced the conclusion of its share buyback programme and the initiation of a new one 2-year programme, effective from today at a EUR 2.48-29/share price range for the acquisition of up to 38.2m own shares (10% of total). PPC currently holds 24.18m own shares (6.3286% of total). As a reminder, during the 1Q24 conference call, PPC’s management said that it intends to renew the share buyback programme of up to 10% of company shares, and that it plans to use 1/3 of own shares for management compensation, 1/3 for acquisitions and the remaining 1/3 will be cancelled. In other related news, PPC was included in the FTSE4Good Index Series, following an assessment conducted by FTSE Russell.

Ginger Digital Bidco S.A. holds 95.63% of Epsilon Net after the mandatory public offer

The company announced that it controls 95.63% of Epsilon Net’s share capital after the completion of the mandatory public offer. During the acceptance period, the public offer was accepted by 119 shareholders, offering a total of 6,380,872 shares, or 11.77% of the company’s share capital and through the Stock Exchange acquired a total of 11,351,330 shares, representing 20.94%. The Company  squeeze out the shares of Epsilon net from ATHEX.  Additionally, ATHEX announced that the shares of Epsilon Net will be removed from General Index and FTSE Mid Cap index and will be replaced by Elinoil and Trade Estates accordingly.  

OTE Share buyback

The company announced that it purchased on 29-31 July and 1-2 August 30,244 own shares at an average price of EUR 14.855. The company now holds 1,745,256 shares or 0.43% of the total share capital.

CALENDAR OF EVENTS

Macros

09/08/24 | CPI JUL & Industrial Production JUN

12/08/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises 2Q24 & JUN

14/08/24 | Import Price Index in Industry JUN

20/08/24 | Current Account Balance JUN & Turnover Index in Industry JUN

Market

12/08/24 | MSCI Quarterly Index Review announcement (Effective date: September 02, 2024)

2Q/1H24 Results Release

06/08/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)

07/08/24 | OTE (Bef-mkt), Coca-Cola HBC

08/08/24 | Petropoulos, Ideal Holdings (Flash Note) (Bef-mkt)

09/08/24 | BriQ Properties, Intercontintal International

29/08/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings

02/09/24 | Sarantis

03/09/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)

04/09/24 | QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)

10/09/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)

11/09/24 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)

12/09/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda

17/09/24 | Noval Property

18/09/24 | Cenergy Holdings

19/09/24 | Viohalco, Attica Bank, Alpha Real Estate, Lavipharm

20/09/24 | Premia Properties, Logismos

25/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt)

26/09/24 | EYDAP, INTERTECH

27/09/24 | Piraeus Port Authority, Alpha Trust Holdings, Alumil (Aft-mkt), Biokarpet, Ble Kedros, Sunrise Mezz Plc, Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC, Trastor REIC

30/09/24 | Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc, Space Hellas, Technical Olympic (Aft-mkt), Athens Medical Center, Interlife, Medicon, Pairis

EGM / AGM

12/08/24 | Ble Kedros (AGM)

20/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co. (AGM)

04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM), Moda Bagno (AGM)

06/09/24 | Domiki Kritis (AGM)

10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

19/08/24 | Ble Kedros

22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)

27/08/24 | Thessaloniki Water & Sewage Co.

29/08/24 | Real Consulting (EUR 0.04)

09/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (EUR 0.058)

12/09/24 | Evrofarma (EUR 0.05)

17/09/24 | Epsilon Net

Ex-Capital Return

26/08/24 | Biokarpet (EUR 0.02)

28/08/24 | GEK TERNA (EUR 0.25)

12/09/24 | Unibios (EUR 0.02)

Research Department
Equity Research 

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr