Greek Market Watch: RRF funds, Moody’s rating, Import Price Index, Optima bank, Piraeus Financial Holdings, Sarantis, Bank of Greece, Intralot

Market Comment

ATHEX headed north yesterday for a third session in a row, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index advanced by 1.27% at 1,417.64 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.29%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.22%, Banks Index: +0.61%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 201.8m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 175.6m. We expect volatility today due to the expiration of March derivative contracts and the rebalancing of FTSE Russel and Stoxx indices. 

Today’s Headlines

·         Greece will submit the fourth request for RRF funds disbursement

·         Moody’s rating review today

·         Overall Import Price Index (MPI) decreased in January

·         Optima Bank in STOXX Indices today

·         Piraeus Financial Holdings in talks with the regulator to distribute 2023 dividend-CEO

·         Goldman Sachs holds a 6.61% stake in Piraeus Financial Holdings

·         Sarantis Group Investor Day

·         Bank of Greece AGM on 08 April

·         Intralot and FanDuel to provide sports betting services to the Washington D.C. Lottery 

Macro Headlines 

Greece will submit the fourth request for RRF funds disbursement

According to Euro2day the Deputy Minister of finance, stated that Greece is ready to submit the fourth request for the disbursement of RRF funds by the end of April and the fifth by the end of September or early October and highlighted that more than 60% of the country’s expected growth comes from the resources of the recovery fund. 

Moody’s rating review today

Moody’s is set to announce its rating review on Greek sovereign debt today after market close.  Recall that Moody’s current rating is Ba1 with a stable outlook, one notch below investment grade. 

Overall Import Price Index (MPI) decreased in January

According to ELSTAT, the Overall Import Price Index (MPI) in Industry in January 2024 recorded a decrease of 6.4% y-o-y, while in January 2023, the MPI had recorded a y-o-y increase of 0.4%. The 6.4% y-o-y decrease of the MPI was mainly driven by the 13.2% y-o-y decrease of the Energy products sub-index, while on the contrary, the Capital Goods sub-index rose by 2.2% y-o-y. Over the twelve-month February 2023-January 2024 period, the MPI decreased by 12.8% compared to the February 2022-January 2023 period. 

Company Headlines 

Optima Bank in STOXX Indices today

The share of Optima Bank will be added to STOXX Emerging Markets All Cap, STOXX Emerging Europe Small Cap, STOXX Emerging Markets Small Cap, STOXX Europe AC All Cap, STOXX Emerging Markets ex China All Cap, STOXX Emerging Markets ex China Small Cap, STOXX World AC ex Australia Small Cap. All changes will be effective today at the close. 

Piraeus Financial Holdings in talks with the regulator to distribute 2023 dividend-CEO

The CEO of Piraeus Financial Holdings stated on Bloomberg TV that is in talks with the regulator to allow the lender to distribute a dividend from 2023 net profit and hence PFH has already accounted for 10% dividend payout ratio (EUR 0.063, DY: 1.6%). PFH is one of our top picks in the sector with a TP of EUR 5.00/share, offering a 25% upside potential.    

Goldman Sachs holds a 6.61% stake in Piraeus Financial Holdings

• Piraeus Financial Holdings announced that the Goldman Sachs Group held on 08 March, 82,622,396 voting rights, corresponding to a 6.61% stake, of which 41,874,079 common shares or 3.35% of voting rights, 17,208,121 common shares from securities lending or 1.38% of voting rights and 23,540,196 common shares from swaps or 1.88% of voting rights. 

Sarantis Group Investor Day

Sarantis Group held an investor day yesterday where it presented its business outlook for the coming years up to 2028. Management said that Stella Pack was the largest acquisition in Sarantis Group’s history and will be fully integrated in FY24 driving revenues and EBITDA to new all-time highs.

• More specifically, Stella Pack will drive the group’s home care category to a new record level adding EUR 81m in revenue and EUR 10.5m in EBITDA. Management forecasts sales to reach EUR 595.0m (+23.5% y-o-y) and expects sales to grow until 2028 at a constant growth rate of 5.5% per annum, with a revenue target of EUR 737.4m in FY28.

The company will continue to grow its cash flow generation with a FCF target of EUR 375.0m over the next 5 years enabling the group to have a strong cash position and be ready for potential acquisition opportunities. The group’s EBITDA is forecasted to reach EUR 80.2m in FY24 compared to EUR 61.6m in FY23 (+30% y-o-y), while the 2028 EBITDA target is set for EUR 120.2 (+95% compared to FY23).

• In terms of OpEx, management’s objective is to keep costs under control by investing and strengthening the business with an investment plan of EUR 81.0m οver the next 5 years (most of the Capex will be directed to the DC in Oinofita and the Group’s digital transformation, both financed by RRF funds with low borrowing costs, while new investments will also be targeted at Stella Pack in Poland).

As far as investors’ remuneration is concerned, the group will distribute EUR 15.0m as a dividend from 2023 earnings, maintaining a stable payout rate of 38% in the next years, while the buyback program will be renewed for next year at the next AGM. 

Bank of Greece AGM on 08 April

The AGM of shareholders will take place on Monday 08 April at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve among other items the distribution of a gross dividend of EUR 0.6720 per share (DY: 4.4%).

• Reportedly (Bloomberg), the Governor of Bank of Greece stated that the ECB must cut rates twice before its August summer break and two more times before the end of the year, in line with our and market expectations. 

Intralot and FanDuel to provide sports betting services to the Washington D.C. Lottery

Intralot announced that it signed a sub-contracting agreement with FanDuel, one of the leading providers of sports betting services in the US, and a related contract amendment with the Washington, D.C. Lottery for the relevant services through the retail network and through the online channel. The agreement provides for a guaranteed minimum annual revenue for the Lottery and for INTRALOT and the use of all FanDuel responsible gaming tools. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

15/03/24 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review

20/03/24 | Turnover Index in Industry JAN

22/03/24 | Current Account Balance JAN

FY23 Results

20/03/24 | Motodynamics, Alpha Trust Andromeda

21/03/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt)

27/03/24 | Hellenic Exchanges

28/03/24 | Trastor REIC

29/03/24 | Piraeus Port Authority

03/04/24 | QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)

09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt)

12/04/24 | Sunrise Mezz PLC, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC

17/04/24 | Lamda Development

25/04/24 | EYDAP

30/04/24 | Biokarpet

EGM / AGM

27/03/24 | Mytilineos (EGM)

08/04/24 | Bank of Greece (AGM)

10/04/24 | Petropoulos (AGM)

18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)

23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)

25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)

30/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

19/03/24 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.60/share)

15/04/24 | Petropoulos

29/04/24 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.60)

20/05/24 | Aegean Airlines

Ex-Capital Return

26/03/24 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 2.20)

25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25) 

Research Department Equity Research Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr