Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday after five positive consecutive sessions, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.71% at 1,613.78 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.60%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.98%, Banks Index: -0.73%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 150.8m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 146.1m. We expect the market to rebound today, with Metlen in focus.
Today’s Headlines
· Greece has to speed up with for the disbursement of RRF funds (press)
· 6-month T-bill yield down
· METLEN Secures Long-Term Strategic Agreements with Rio Tinto in Bauxite and Alumina-new deal to be announced soon (press)
· METLEN 4Q/FY24 Results Review | MYTILINEOS delivers the Annual EBITDA guidance; Declares EUR 1.50/share dividend
· Titan Group announces Divestment of Cement Assets in the Eastern part of Türkiye
· CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables announces contract award for the Silver Run Expansion project in the US
· HELLENiQ ENERGY actively seeks partnerships for Hydrocarbon exploration in its concessions (press)
· AVAX, GEKTERNA and METLEN’s METKA compete for the Hellinikon Mall (press)
· Sarantis Financial Calendar 2025
Macro Headlines
Greece has to speed up with for the disbursement of RRF funds (press)
According to Kathimerini, the Vice Director of EU’s economic and financial affairs, Mr. Declan Costello, urged the Greek authorities to move faster with the necessary 240 milestones for the disbursement of the remaining EUR 18bn in the next 18 months, as no extension will be provided.
6-month T-bill yield down
The Greek State raised EUR 600m yesterday from the issuance of 26-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 1,105m (2.21x coverage ratio vs. 2.36x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.19% (vs. 2.45% in the previous auction).
Company Headlines
METLEN Secures Long-Term Strategic Agreements with Rio Tinto in Bauxite and Alumina-new deal to be announced soon (press)
METLEN entered into two long-term strategic agreements with Rio Tinto, securing supply chain improvements in both Bauxite and Alumina. In more detail, under the agreement, Rio Tinto will supply approximately 14.9 million MT of bauxite from the CBG mine in Guinea over an 11-year period (2027-2037). Additionally, METLEN will supply Rio Tinto with 3.9 million MT of Alumina, sourced from its expanded Agios Nikolaos refinery over an 8year period (2027-2034) with an optional 3-year extension (2035-2037).
Comment: Under the agreement, METLEN secures the necessary Beauxite quantities which will supplement its own production in the local mines, so as to provide the necessary input for its increased Alumina capacity from 2027 onwards (recall that with the new investment in its Alumina refinery, Metlen will increase Alumina capacity by c. 50%, from 850kton p.a. to 1,265kton p.a. Additionally, Metlen establishes a long term relationship with Rio Tinto, which offers additional visibility on the revenue from its Alumina production. Additionally, according to Euro2day.gr, METLEN will soon announce another major deal in its Metals Business with extrovert character.
METLEN (Mytilineos) || BUY | CP: EUR 36.70 | TP: EUR 49.00
4Q/FY24 Results Review | MYTILINEOS delivers the Annual EBITDA guidance; Declares EUR 1.50/share dividend
METLEN released earlier today its 4Q/FY24 results, with 4Q24 group turnover at EUR 1.480m (+5.4% YoY), EBITDA of EUR 317m (+8.9% YoY, 2.6% above Optima) and Net income of EUR 133m (-17.4% YoY, -9.5% below Optima, due to increased depreciation charges and financial expenses). Regarding Leverage, Net Debt at 2024-end stood at EUR 1,776m, implying a Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.7x, adjusted for non-recourse debt). In FY24 terms METLEN reported Revenues of EUR 5.7bn, EBITDA at EUR 1,080m in a EUR 753/297m energy/metals split, and Net profits at EUR 615m. Following the strong profitability, METLEN declared dividend for FY24 at EUR 1.50/share (vs. our 1.54/share estimate).
Mytilineos 4Q/FY24 Results Review
|
EUR m |
4Q23 |
4Q24 |
YoY |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
FY23 |
FY24 |
YoY |
|
Group Revenues |
1,404 |
1,480 |
5.4% |
1,681 |
-12.0% |
5,492 |
5,683 |
3.5% |
|
– Energy EBITDA |
234 |
208 |
-11.1% |
214 |
-2.8% |
766 |
753 |
-1.7% |
|
– Metallurgy EBITDA |
55 |
90 |
63.6% |
65 |
38.5% |
248 |
297 |
19.8% |
|
– Construction/Concessions |
4 |
31 |
675.0% |
23 |
34.8% |
12 |
50 |
316.7% |
|
Group EBITDA |
291 |
317 |
8.9% |
309 |
2.6% |
1,014 |
1,080 |
6.5% |
|
Net Income |
161 |
133 |
-17.4% |
147 |
-9.5% |
623 |
615 |
-1.3% |
Source: Optima bank Research, Metlen
Titan Group announces Divestment of Cement Assets in the Eastern part of Türkiye
Titan Cement entered into a definitive agreement to divest its 75% share in Adocim Cimento Beton Sanayi ve Ticaret, comprising cement assets located in Eastern Region of Türkiye, 50% share to Mugla Cimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and 25% to Yurt Cimento Sanayi ve Ticaret. Following this transaction, Titan will receive total cash proceeds of USD 87.5m. This divestment is part of TITAN’s Group broader strategy to strengthen its portfolio and seek reinvestment opportunities.
Comment: In our view, Titan Cement disposed the specific asset, looking for alternative reinvestment options in the region with more efficient logistics, with closer proximity to port terminals. Additionally, the $ 87.5m cash consideration implies a transaction EV/EBITDA of 6-7x (the contribution of the Turkish operations is EUR c.15-18m p.a.), which is at a significant premium compared to the Group’s average EV/EBITDA excluding the US subsidiary.
CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables announces contract award for the Silver Run Expansion project in the US
Cenergy Holdings announces that its cables segment, was awarded a contract for the Silver Run Expansion Project in the USA. The project includes the supply of 21km of single core, AC high voltage 230kV submarine XLPE insulated power cables, the manufacturing of which will be completed at Hellenic Cables’ production plant in Corinth, Greece.
HELLENiQ ENERGY actively seeks partnerships for Hydrocarbon exploration in its concessions (press)
According to Kathimerini, the CEO of HELLENiQ ENERGY recently visited Egypt, seeking for partnerships to proceed with exploration for hydrocarbons in its concessions in the Ionian Sea.
AVAX, GEKTERNA and METLEN’s METKA compete for the Hellinikon Mall (press)
According to Radar.gr, AVAX, GEKTERNA and METLEN’s construction subsidiary, METKA will compete for the EUR 500m contract for the construction of the Hellinikon Mall.
Sarantis Financial Calendar 2025
Sarantis announced that it will report FY24 results on Wednesday 12 March 2025 and the conference call is scheduled for the next day.
Calendar of Events
Macros
20/02/25 | Turnover Index in Industry DEC (ELSTAT) & Current Account Balance DEC (BoG)
26/02/25 | Building Activity NOV (ELSTAT)
27/02/25 | Economic Sentiment Indicator FEB
28/02/25 | Producer Price Index in Industry JAN & Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC
4Q/FY24 Results Release
20/02/25 | METLEN (Bef-mkt)
24/02/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Athens International Airport (Bef-mkt)
26/02/25 | OTE (Bef-mkt)
27/02/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt)
28/02/25 | National Bank of Greece (Bef-mkt), Alpha Services & Holdings (08:00 GR time), Premia Properties
04/03/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
05/03/25 | Cenergy Holdings
06/03/25 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), Viohalco
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
26/02/25 | Attica Bank (EGM)
06/03/25 | EVROPI Holdings (EGM)
14/04/25 | Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
23/04/25 | Athens Airport
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
03/07/25 | OTE
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
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