Market Comment
ATHEX headed north on Friday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index jumped by 1.65% at 1,726.13 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.98%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.59%, Banks Index: +3.68%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 191.0m, up from Thursday’s EUR 190.2m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose by 1.20% w-o-w, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.34%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.29%, Banks index: +2.10%). Week Ahead: Qualco Group IPO later this week, Eurobank dividend ex-date today, Piraeus Bank and Sarantis 1Q25 Results tomorrow, OPAP dividend ex-date on Wednesday, National Bank, Eurobank, Titan Cement 1Q25 Results on Thursday, Alpha Bank 1Q25 Results on Friday. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels today.
Today’s Headlines
· EC receives EUR 3.1bn RRF tranche, reaches 59% absorption of total available funds
· Greek HICP down in April (Eurostat)
· New record of arrivals is expected in May.
· Piraeus Financial Holdings 1Q25 results preview | Higher bottom line on strong 1Q trends
· Eurobank trades ex-dividend today
· National Bank of Greece AGM on 30 May
· PPC 1Q25 Results Release date amendment
· Aegean Airlines stock award programme
· Motodynamics amendment of the financial calendar
Macro Headlines
EC receives EUR 3.1bn RRF tranche, reaches 59% absorption of total available funds
EC disbursed on Friday EUR 3.1bn from the RRF to Greece, following the successful completion of the 5th payment request for the Fund’s grants and loans submitted by Greece at the end of Dec’24. Following this development, Greece has received EUR 21.3bn from the RRF, an amount that exceeds 59% of the total budget (EUR 35.95bn) of the National Plan “Greece 2.0”.
Greek HICP down in April (Eurostat)
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 2.7% in April (and up by 0.5% m-o-m), down compared to 3.1% in March and above the respective EU area figure (unchanged at 2.2% y-o-y in April).
Sector Headlines
New record of arrivals is expected in May.
According to press reports (capital.gr), foreign tourist demand continues to be strong in May, as available seats scheduled on incoming international flights are up by 6.1% y-o-y, and reached 3.5m with an impressive increase recorded from Israel market and USA followed by strong demand from UK and Germany.
Company Headlines
Piraeus Financial Holdings | BUY | CP: EUR 5.15 | TP: EUR 6.50
Higher bottom line on strong 1Q trends
1Q25 results | Piraeus Financial Holdings is scheduled to report 1Q25 results on Tuesday 06 May at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London Time.
Optima View | We anticipate a strong start to the year and net profit to amplify both on a sequential (lower OpEx, LLPs, lack of one-offs) and a yearly basis (higher fee income, lower LLPs). We also expect net credit expansion to be strong, deposits to be lower q-o-q, in line with system trends as well as asset quality dynamics to remain benign. Recall that management cited on the pre-results CC that Assets Under Management posted a very strong trend in 1Q. We expect that investors will focus on the management’s outlook for the rest of the year and especially on the evolution of net credit expansion, time deposits mix and cost, NII, CoR and the acquisition of Ethniki Insurance. The stock is trading 0.8x P/TBV25E, at a material discount of 30% to European banks and 13% discount to its Greek peers, which is not justified by its higher RoaTBV. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 6.50/share, implying a 32% potential upside.
Bottom line | We estimate net profit to shape at EUR 270.5m (+47% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y) in 1Q25, 4% lower than consensus estimate of EUR 283.0m. The sequential improvement is attributed to lower OpEx, LLPs as well as to the lack of one-offs. Recall that 4Q24 results were burdened by one-off costs of EUR 213.6m.
Top line | We assess that NII will shape at EUR 479.6m (-7% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y), broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 484.0m, on the back of lower base rates and seasonality (1Q is historically weak). In the same vein, we also anticipate fee income to land at EUR 159.7m (-5% q-o-q, +10% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 160.0m, owing to the negative impact of EUR 7.5m (annual impact of EUR 30.0m) on lower transaction fees, following the government initiatives announced in December 2024. Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 639.3m (-6% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y) and revenues at EUR 639.8m (-12% q-o-q, +8% y-o-y), 2% lower than consensus estimate of EUR 655.0m due to lower non-core revenues.
Costs | On the cost side, we project OpEx to reach EUR 225.3m (-15% q-o-q, +11% y-o-y), burdened by frontloaded property taxes and in line with consensus estimate of EUR 225.0m. Finally, we expect loan loss provisions to shape at EUR 40.9m (-68% q-o-q, -30% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 45.0m, factoring a cost of risk of 41bps. Finally, we assumed a tax rate of 27.0%.
Eurobank trades ex-dividend today
The stock is trading ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.105, DY: 4.1%) today and payment will commence on 09 May. In other news, Eurobank announced that the BoD of Eurobank holdings and its 100% Eurobank SA approved the draft merger agreement for the proposed merger by absorption of Eurobank Holdings by Eurobank SA. As a result of the merger, the shareholders of Eurobank Holdings will exchange their shares for shares of Eurobank SA, at a proposed exchange ratio of one (1) new share of the Absorbing Company for one (1) share of the Absorbed Company they hold. The shares of the Absorbing Company will be listed for trading on ATHEX. The completion of the Merger is subject to the required approvals by the General Meetings of the Merging Companies and the receipt of all necessary regulatory licenses and approvals.
National Bank of Greece AGM on 30 May
The AGM of the bank will take place on Friday 30 May at 11:00 Athens/09:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve among others the distribution of a gross dividend of EUR 0.44/share (Div. Yield: 4.6%) as well as a share buyback program of up to 91,471,515 shares (up to 10% of paid-in capital), to be acquired over a period of 24 months (30/05/2027), while the total cost shall not exceed EUR 194.0m. The maximum price was set at EUR 20.00/share and the minimum at EUR 1.00/share. Recall that NBG is scheduled to report 1Q25 results on Thursday 08 May.
PPC 1Q25 Results Release date amendment
PPC will release the 1Q25 Results on 20th May, instead of 15 May initially scheduled.
Aegean Airlines stock award programme
Aegean announced that following the AGM’s approval a total of 233,670 treasury shares of the Company were granted to executives on the grounds of meeting company’s targets. Additionally, the company granted to executive BoD members a total of 130,100 treasury shares. The beneficiaries are subject to a retention obligation for a period of 24 months. The total value of the aforementioned shares amounted to EUR 4,110,540 and after the distribution the company now holds a total of 455,730 shares or 0.51% of the total share capital.
Motodynamics amendment of the financial calendar
Motodynamics announced that the date of the financial analysts’ call is rescheduled for Monday 12 May.
Calendar of Events
Macros
08/05/25 | Trade Balance MAR (ELSTAT)
09/05/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI APR (ELSTAT), Industrial Production MAR (ELSTAT)
1Q:25 Results Release
06/05/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (Bef-mkt), Sarantis (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
08/05/25 | National Bank of Greece, Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Titan Cement
09/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (Bef-mkt)
12/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
14/05/25 | Optima bank, OTE (Bef-mkt)
15/05/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), Attica Bank
19/05/25 | Austriacard (Aft-mkt)
20/05/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
21/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Quest Holding (Aft-mkt)
22/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (trading update) (Bef-mkt), AS Company (trading update) (Aft-mkt)
23/05/25 | Premia Properties (trading update)
26/05/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings, Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
28/05/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
05/05/25 | Titan Cement (EGM), Real Consulting (EGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM), Premia Properties (AGM)
14/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (AGM)
15/05/25 | Performance Technologies (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM), Loulis Food (AGM)
22/05/25 | ElvalHalcor (AGM), Thessaloniki Water Supply (AGM), Alpha Trust Holdings (AGM)
23/05/25 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Noval Property (AGM), Viohalco (AGM), Fais Group (AGM)
28/05/25 | Thrace Plastics (AGM)
29/05/25 | Profile Systems (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
10/06/25 | EYDAP (AGM)
11/06/25 | Jumbo (AGM), Prodea Investments (AGM)
12/06/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)
13/06/25 | Trade Estates (AGM), Interlife (AGM)
16/06/25 | Ble Kedros (AGM)
17/06/25 | Alter Ego Media (AGM)
18/06/25 | Motor Oil (AGM), Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM), AS Company (AGM), Mevaco (AGM), Petropoulos (AGM)
20/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM), Sunrise Mezz Plc (AGM)
23/06/25 | OTE (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
26/06/25 | LAMDA Development (AGM)
01/07/25 | ΚΡΙ–ΚΡΙ (AGM)
02/07/25 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)
03/07/25 | Elinoil (AGM)
07/07/25 | Alumil (AGM)
15/07/25 | AVAX (AGM)
18/07/25 | Alpha Real Estate Services (AGM)
22/07/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (AGM)
28/08/25 | Intralot (AGM)
08/09/25 | Orilina Properties (AGM)
Ex-Capital Return
03/06/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (EUR 0.298/share)
Ex-FY24 Dividend
05/05/25 | Eurobank Holdings (EUR 0.105)
07/05/25 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.80), BriQ Properties (EUR 0.135)
15/05/25 | Premia Properties (EUR 0.03)
16/05/25 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (EUR 2.00)
19/05/25 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.32)
20/05/25 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.80)
23/05/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (EUR 0.03)
26/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (EUR 0.479), Loulis Food (EUR 0.30)
27/05/25 | Alpha Trust Holdings (EUR 0.578)
03/06/25 | National Bank of Greece, Noval Property (EUR 0.043), Performance Technologies
10/06/25 | Thrace Plastics (remaining EUR 0.17)
16/06/25 | Prodea Investments
18/06/25 | EYDAP (EUR 0.07)
19/06/25 | Trade Estates (remaining EUR 0.052)
23/06/25 | Optima bank (EUR 0.57), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.29), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.30), Ble Kedros
24/06/25 | Cenergy Holdings (EUR 0.14), Viohalco (EUR 0.16)
25/06/25 | Motor Oil (remaining EUR 1.10), GEK TERNA (EUR 0.40)
26/06/25 | ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.09)
27/06/25 | Fourlis Holdings (EUR 0.15)
30/06/25 | Titan Cement (EUR 3.00), Euroconsultants (EUR 0.04)
01/07/25 | Profile Systems (EUR 0.064657), Thessaloniki Water Supply, AUSTRIACARD Holdings (EUR 0.11)
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (remaining EUR 0.55), Interlife (EUR 0.20)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
04/07/25 | Mevaco
10/07/25 | AS Company (EUR 0.17)
21/07/25 | PPC (EUR 0.40)
23/07/25 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 0.50)
04/08/25 | Piraeus Port Authority (EUR 1.92)
21/08/25 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.40)
25/08/25 | ADMIE Holding
02/09/25 | AVAX (EUR 0.07)
11/09/25 | Orilina Properties
Share Capital Increase (Evropi Holdings)
28/04/25 | Ex-rights date
02/05/25-13/05/25 | Trading period of rights
02/05/25-16/05/25 | Exercise period of rights
ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)
05/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (09:30 GR time)
Research Department
Equity Research
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