Greek Market Watch: S&P, Primary surplus, Current account, Industrial Turnover, HELLENiQ ENERGY, ELLAKTOR, Mytilineos, Coca Cola HBC, Alumil, Autohellas, Entersoft, Andromeda, KRI-KRI, Intracom/Intralot

OPTIMA

Market Comment

ATHEX headed north on Friday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.84% at 1,392.62 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.81%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.36%, Banks Index: +0.50%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 127.4m, up from Thursday’s EUR 115.4m. On a weekly basis, the General Index eased by 0.57% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: -0.50%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.09%, Banks index: -1.88%). We expect the de-escalation in the Middle East and the S&P announcement to provide support to ATHEX today. Ahead this week: release of Greek fiscal today, Sarantis and Mytilineos’ 1Q24e financial results.

 

Today’s Headlines

·         S&P affirms BBB- Credit rating on Greece, Upgrading outlook to positive on Ongoing Debt Stock Reduction

·         Greece to record higher primary surplus vs. target in 2023 (press)

·         Current account deficit widens in February (BoG)

·         Industrial Turnover index up by 3.1% in February (ELSTAT)

·         HELLENiQ ENERGY and EDISON to negotiate the next day for ELPEDISON (press)

·         ELLAKTOR agrees with Reggenborgh to acquire its stake in REDS

·         Mytilineos awards 139k company shares to company executives

·         Coca Cola HBC AGM on 21 May 

·         Alumil results out

·         Autohellas ex-dividend today

·         Entersoft AGM on 17 May 

·         Alpha Trust Andromeda to trade ex-dividend on 13 May 

·         KRI-KRI to proceed with a placement of shares to increase its free float (press)

·         Intracom Holdings bought 30k Intralot shares

 

Macro Headlines

 

S&P affirms BBB- Credit rating on Greece, Upgrading outlook to positive on Ongoing Debt Stock Reduction

S&P affirmed Greece’s sovereign rating to BBB-, upgrading the outlook to Positive, on improving public finances and solid growth. The agency said that it expects additional structural economic reforms to support the fiscal discipline and relatively strong nominal GDP growth, and consequently the further net-debt/GDP drop. In more detail, the agency expects that the Greek Economy will grow by 2.4% in average in 2024-27e, and record a primary surplus of at least 2.1% over the same period, effectively lowering the gross general government debt down to about 131.3% of GDP by 2027 (from 162.1% in 2023).

 

Greece to record higher primary surplus vs. target in 2023 (press)

According to Capital.gr citing officials from the Ministry of Finance, Greece has generated higher primary surplus of 1.4%-1.5% (and even higher to 1.7% according to Kathimerini) vs. target of 1.1%, or EUR 600-900m, which will also drive an upwards of the provisional GDP growth of 2.0% for 2023; official figures will be released by ELSTAT today.

 

Current account deficit widens in February (BoG)

According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in February 2024 recorded a deficit of 3,161m, vs. a deficit of 1,338m in the same period a year ago, with the increase owing to the deterioration in the balance of goods and the primary and secondary income accounts, which more than offset the slight improvement in the balance of goods. Additionally, in the January–February 2024 period, the current account deficit narrowed marginally by EUR 41.5m and stood at EUR 1,458m. Finally, travel receipts in February 2024 stood at EUR 291.4m, up by 22.2% y-o-y, while in the Jan-Feb 2024 period, travel receipts rose by 24.5% y-o-y to EUR 569.7m.

 

Industrial Turnover index up by 3.1% in February (ELSTAT)

ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 3.1% y-o-y in February 2024 compared to an increase of 10.4% y-o-y in February 2023 while increased by 5.4% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the March 2023-February 2024 period dropped by 5.5% y-o-y compared to a 29.9% y-o-y rise in the respective March 2022-February 2023 period.

 

Company Headlines

 

HELLENiQ ENERGY and EDISON to negotiate the next day for ELPEDISON (press)

According to Newmoney.gr, the management of the Italian EDISON are in Athens to negotiate with HELLENiQ ENERGY on how they will terminate their 50%/50% partnership in ELPEDISON, an energy company with thermal generation and electricity and natural gas supply activity in Greece. According to the same press report, three players are interested to acquire ELPEDISON.

 

ELLAKTOR agrees with Reggenborgh to acquire its stake in REDS

ELLAKTOR announced that it submitted on 18 April an offer to Reggenborgh to acquire its full stake (i.e. 38.79%) in REDS for a total consideration of EUR 60.15m or EUR2.70/share. According to the announcement, Reggenborgh Holding has accepted the offer, and the completion of the transaction is anticipated within three weeks. Additionally, ELLAKTOR’s BoD also decided to purchase additional shares in REDS through ATHEX, at the same consideration of EUR 2.70/share, aiming to acquire shares of at least, 95% or greater; in the case of a stake greater than 95% will be acquired, REDS intends to initiate the process of a voluntary exit from ATHEX.

 

Mytilineos awards 139k company shares to company executives

Mytilineos announced that 139,398 treasury shares of an aggregate value EUR c.4.97m were awarded to 61 company executives.

 

Coca Cola HBC AGM on 21 May 

The AGM of shareholders will take place on Tuesday 21 May at 11:00 CET. Shareholders will approve the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.93 per share as well as a share buyback program.

 

Alumil results out

Alumil posted its results on Friday. In more detail, revenue reached EUR 404.6m vs. EUR 402.5m in FY22 posting a 0.5% y-o-y increase. It is noted that the revenue increase was driven by volume growth of around 7% as aluminium prices declined during the year.

  • Group EBITDA amounted to EUR 32.2m vs. EUR 56.5m in FY22 recording 43% decrease y-o-y, while net profit also fell by 85.2% to EUR 4.1m vs. EUR 27.7m. Despite sales growth, profitability was affected by the continued decline in the price of the aluminium raw material, large foreign exchange differences, rising interest rates and increased provisions.

Management stated that the company has initiated and is implementing a number of major investments (AI paint shop, robotic warehouse, new warehouse and automated combined packaging line) which will also be financed through the RRF with the amount of EUR 15m.

 

Autohellas ex-dividend today

The stock is trading ex-dividend today (DPS: EUR 0.70, DY: 5.2%).

 

Entersoft AGM on 17 May 

The AGM of shareholders will take place on Friday 17 May at 11:00 Athens/09:00 London Time. The company won’t distribute a dividend from 2023 profits.

 

Alpha Trust Andromeda to trade ex-dividend on 13 May 

The AGM of shareholders of Alpha Trust Andromeda approved the distribution of a EUR 0.30 per share (DY: 4.5%), with the option of dividend reinvestment. The above amount will be increased after adjusting for the company’s own shares at the record date. The company announced that NAV stands at EUR 8.58 per share, at a 20.74% discount to current price. The stock is set to trade ex-dividend on Monday 13 May 2024 and payment will commence on 07 June.

 

KRI-KRI to proceed with a placement of shares to increase its free float (press)

According to Capital.gr, the management of KRI-KRI stated during the annual presentation to Analysts that it will soon proceed with a placement of shares to increase its free float. A per the same press report, the management guided for a sales increase of at least 10% for 2024e, on lower however EBIT margin of 15% vs. 18.6% in 2023.

 

Intracom Holdings bought 30k Intralot shares

Intralot announced that Intracom Holdings acquired on 19 April, 30,000 shares at an average price of EUR 1.094 per share.

 

Calendar of Events

Macros

22/04/24 | Fiscal Data 2020-2023 ELSTAT (1st notification)

26/04/24 | Building Activity JAN

29/04/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator APR

30/04/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade FEB & Producer Price Index in Industry MAR

31/05/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review

Results Release

22/04/24 | Ble Kedros (FY23)

23/04/24 | Intrakat (FY23), Alpha Trust Holding (FY23)

24/04/24 | Sarantis (1Q24 trading update), Alpha Trust Andromeda (1Q24), Loulis Food  (FY23) (Aft-mkt)

25/04/24 | Mytilineos (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt), EYDAP (FY23), Space Hellas (FY23)

29/04/24 | Athens Airport (1Q24) (bef-mkt), Elastron (FY23), AS Company (FY23)

30/04/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (1Q24), Coca-Cola HBC (1Q24 trading update) (7:00 am BST), Entersoft (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt)

09/05/24 | Titan Cement International (1Q24)

14/05/24 | OTE (1Q24) (bef-mkt)

16/05/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (1Q24), Eurobank Holdings (1Q24), HELLENiQ ENERGY (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

21/05/24 | Optima bank (1Q24), Fourlis (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

22/05/24 | ElvalHalcor (1Q24 trading update) (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

23/05/24 | PPC (1Q24) (Aft-mkt), Ideal Holdings (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt)

27/05/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (1Q24)

28/05/24 | Cenergy Holdings (1Q24)

29/05/24 | OPAP (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

31/05/24 | Austriacard Holdings (1Q24), Attica Bank (1Q24)

EGM / AGM

23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)

25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM), AΙA (AGM), MIG (AGM)

30/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM), PPC (EGM), BriQ Properties (AGM)

09/05/24 | Titan Cement (AGM)

10/05/24 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (AGM)

15/05/24 | Alpha Trust Holding (AGM), Revoil (AGM)

17/05/24 | Trastor REIC (AGM), Entersoft (AGM)

21/05/24 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)

22/05/24 | Jumbo (AGM)

23/05/24 | Optima bank (AGM), ElvalHalcor (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)

28/05/24 | Viohalco (AGM), Cenergy (AGM)

29/05/24 | Attica Group (AGM)

30/05/24 | Intralot (AGM)

31/05/24 | Ellaktor (AGM)

04/06/24 | Mytilineos (AGM)

06/06/24 | Ideal Holdings (AGM)

13/06/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM)

14/06/24 | Trade Estates (AGM)

17/06/24 | Loulis Food (AGM)

19/06/24 | Motor Oil (AGM), Viokarpet (AGM)

20/06/24 | AS Company (AGM), Space Hellas (AGM)

21/06/24 | Fourlis (AGM)

27/06/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), PPC (AGM), LAMDA Development (AGM), Elastron (AGM)

28/06/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), OTE (AGM)

03/07/24 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)

04/07/24 | Alumil (AGM)

09/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings (AGM), KRI-KRI (AGM)

10/07/24 | Piraeus Port (AGM), Attica Bank (AGM)

11/07/24 | EYDAP (AGM)

23/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)

25/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

22/04/24 | Autohellas (EUR 0.70)

29/04/24 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.60)

02/05/24 | Sarantis (EUR 0.224381)

08/05/24 | BriQ Properties

13/05/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.30)

14/05/24 | Thessaloniki Port Authority

20/05/24 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.75), Alpha Trust Holding, Revoil (EUR 0.048)

21/05/24 | Athens Airport (EUR 0.33)

05/06/24 | Attica Group (EUR 0.07)

19/06/24 | Trade Estates

25/06/24 | Titan Cement (EUR 0.85), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.24), ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.04), Viohalco (EUR 0.12), Cenergy (EUR 0.08)

26/06/24 | Motor Oil (rem. EUR 1.40), Mytilineos (EUR 1.50), Fourlis (EUR 0.12)

01/07/24 | Loulis Food

04/07/24 | OTE (EUR 0.71)

05/07/24 | Trastor REIC

10/07/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (rem. EUR 0.60), Jumbo (EUR 1.00), AS Company

16/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings

22/07/24 | PPC, EYDAP, Space Hellas

29/07/24 | Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34)

22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)

02/09/24 | ADMIE Holding

Ex-Capital Return

25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)

25/07/24 | Ideal Holdings

ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)

24/04/24 | Lavipharm (09:30 Athens time) 

Research Department
Equity Research

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr

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