Greek Market Watch: Stability programme, 30-year GGB, IOBE, Banks, Eurobank, Mytilineos, Intrakat, Ideal Holdings, Aegean Airlines, GEKTERNA, Alpha Trust Holdings, Viokarpet, Andromeda

Greek Market Watch: Stability programme, 30-year GGB, IOBE, Banks, Eurobank, Mytilineos, Intrakat, Ideal Holdings, Aegean, GEKTERNA, Alpha Trust Holdings, Viokarpet, Andromeda

Today’s Headlines

·         Greece to submit the Updated stability programme to the EU by the end of April (press)

·         PDMA to proceed with the issuance of a new 30-year bond.

·         IOBE quarterly review on Greece

·         SSM to approve dividend payouts-Press

·         Eurobank issued new senior preferred bond

·         Mytilineos 1Q24e Results preview | Strong quarter despite weak seasonality

·         Intrakat FY23 results out

·         Ideal Holdings disposed crown corks business for EUR 136.0m

·         Aegean Airlines targets Africa (press)

·         Sarantis 1Q24 Trading update out today

·         GEKTERNA will repeat the bondholders meetings

·         Alpha Trust Holdings FY23 results out

·         Viokarpet Sustainability Report

·         Alpha Trust Andromeda 1Q24 results out today

Market Comment

ATHEX headed north yesterday, for a 5th session in a row, as risk-on sentiment gained further momentum yesterday in the international markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.93% at 1,447.82 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +2.19%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.32%, Banks Index: +3.48%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 159.4m, up from Monday’s EUR 103.5m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today.

Macro Headlines

 

Greece to submit the Updated stability programme to the EU by the end of April (press)

According to Capital.gr, the updated stability programme envisages GDP growth at 2.3% for 2024e (lower compared to the 2.9% estimate in the state budget) and 2.5% in average for 2024-27e.

 

PDMA to proceed with the issuance of a new 30-year bond.

Greece announced yesterday its intention to tap the markets with a 30-year bond, subject to market conditions.

 

IOBE quarterly review on Greece

IOBE released its updated forecasts for the Greek Economy, trimming its previous GDP growth estimate for 2024e to 2.1% (from +2.4% previously), and slightly raising the inflation estimate to 3.0% (from 2.6% previously).

 

Sector Headlines

 

SSM to approve dividend payouts-Press

Press reports (euro2day) indicate that systemic banks submitted in the previous days their dividend policies for 2023 to SSM and are optimistic that it will give the green light. Recall that Piraeus targets a dividend payout of 10%, Alpha 20%, Eurobank at least 25% and NBG 30%.

 

Company Headlines

 

Eurobank issued new senior preferred bond

Reportedly (Bloomberg), Eurobank issued a new senior preferred bond of EUR 650m with a coupon of 4.875%. The bond matures in 7 years and is callable in 6 years. Recall that Eurobank issued on 22 November 2023 a EUR 500m senior preferred bond at a coupon of 5.875%. Eurobank is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.41/share.

 

Mytilineos || BUY | CP: EUR 38.80 | TP: EUR 49.00

1Q24e Results preview | Strong quarter despite weak seasonality

Mytilineos is set to announce its 1Q24e Flash Note Results tomorrow Thursday, 25 April before the market opening (no Conference Call will be held). In more detail, we expect the stronger Renewables activity, the increased electricity supply profitability (on higher market shares) and the increased Thermal Generation contribution (note that 1Q23 was adversely impacted by maintenance), to more than offset the softer contribution from LNG trading (mainly due to lower prices, which are expected to offset the increased volumes). We also see solid performance of Metallurgy, despite the sharp y-o-y drop in Aluminium prices, as the company has proactively secured the favorable pricing environment in 2022-23. That said, we see Group Revenues at EUR 1.bn, down by 18% y-o-y, Group EBITDA at EUR 250m, up by 11% y-o-y and Net Profits also up by 5% y-o-y to EUR 150m.

Mytilineos 1Q24e Results Preview

In EUR million

1Q23

1Q24e

Y-o-Y change

Group Revenues

1,358.0

1,108.0

-18%

– Energy EBITDA

150.0

180.0

20%

– Metallurgy EBITDA

74.0

66.8

-10%

– Other

1.0

3.0

200%

Group EBITDA

225.0

249.8

11%

Net Income

143

150

5%

 

Intrakat FY23 results out

Intrakat announced increased sales of EUR 412m in 2023 (up by 83% y-o-y), EBITDA at EUR 16m (compared to losses of EUR 3m in 2022) and Net profits of EUR 3m (vs. losses of EUR 24m a year ago). Construction backlog (INTRAKAT & AKTOR, including projects to be signed) shaped at the historic high of EUR 4.9bn, while bank debt in 2023-end dropped by EUR 5m y-o-y to EUR 123m, following the EUR 100m SCI proceeds which more than offset the increased capex of EUR 123m, EUR 66m of which for the acquisition of AKTOR. The Company currently holds a Portfolio of 2.7 GW of renewable energy projects jointly with its strategic partner PPC. Finally, during yesterday’s conference call, the management said that Intrakat aims to win 20% of the 20 tender processes it participates, and with respect to construction, it targets to maintain a 10% gross profit in 2024e.

 

Ideal Holdings disposed crown corks business for EUR 136.0m

Ideal Holdings announced yesterday that through its subsidiary SICC Limited, signed an agreement to sell 100% of Astir Vitogiannis S.A. to Guala Closures and 74.99% of Coleus Packaging (pty) Limited for a EV of EUR 136.0m or 7.2x EV/Adj. EBITDA23. The crown corks sector (Astir, Coleus) generated revenues of EUR 75.0m, Adj. EBITDA  of EUR 19.0m, EBT of EUR 16.0m and had a net debt position of EUR 15.0m in 2023.  Completion of the transaction is expected in H2 2024 and is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Management will host a CC today at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time. IN our view, the move is exceptional, as on one hand the group divests from the crown corks business and on the other is strengthening its liquidity position and firepower to proceed with new acquisitions. Recall that management has officially announced its intention to proceed with new acquisitions in the IT sector. Post the disposal, Ideal Group has presence in IT (Byte, Adacom, Ideal Electronics, Metrosoft) and Retail sectors (Attica Department Stores). We remain positive on the stock.  

 

Aegean Airlines targets Africa (press)

According to reports, Aegean aims to add flights to Africa and more specifically to Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria where there is a strong Greek and Cypriot business presence (over EUR 5b). 

 

GEKTERNA will repeat the bondholders meetings

GEKTERNA announced that, since the today’s meeting didn’t reach the necessary quorum, will repeat on 26 April the meeting with its bondholders of the EUR 120m note issued in 2018 and the EUR 500m note issued in 2020 to a) extend their consent, for an additional 24 months, regarding the utilization of net proceeds from the sale of an Excluded Asset, b) approve the abolishment of the undertaking to maintain the “Total Debt to Equity Ratio” for the “Calculation Periods” after 31.12.2023 and (c) to approve the increase of the maximum amount of the Company’s “Financial Liabilities” from EUR 1.1bn to EUR 1bn.

 

Alpha Trust Holdings FY23 results out

The company posted its results yesterday. In more detail, revenues reached EUR 8.5m up by 20.5% y-o-y vs. EUR 7.0m in FY22. EBITDA reached EUR 2.1m vs. EUR 1.1m in FY22 posting an 86.0% y-o-y increase with an improved EBITDA margin of 25.4% vs. 16.5% last year. Finaly net profit jumped by 161.5% y-o-y at EUR 1.3m vs. EUR 0.5m in FY22.

 

Viokarpet Sustainability Report

Viokarpet published its sustainability report which shows that Scope1 and Scope 2 emissions have been reduced by 29% above the target for 15% reduction during FY23. In addition, the group’s electricity needs are covered by 98% from renewable sources and is expected to reach 100% by 2025, while the percentage of recycled aluminium used reached 51% exceeding the target of 50%. 

Alpha Trust Andromeda 1Q24 results out today

The company is set to report 1Q24 results today. 

Calendar of Events

Macros

26/04/24 | Building Activity JAN

29/04/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator APR

30/04/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade FEB & Producer Price Index in Industry MAR

01/05/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI APR (08:00 UTC)

31/05/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review

Market

14/05/24 | MSCI Quarterly Index review announcement date (Effective date: June 03, 2024)

Results Release

24/04/24 | Sarantis (1Q24 trading update), Alpha Trust Andromeda (1Q24), Loulis Food (FY23) (Aft-mkt)

25/04/24 | Mytilineos (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt), EYDAP (FY23), Space Hellas (FY23)

26/04/24 | Kekrops (FY23) (Aft-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (FY23)

29/04/24 | Athens Airport (1Q24) (bef-mkt), Elastron (FY23), AS Company (FY23), Alpha Real Estate Services (FY23)

30/04/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (1Q24), Coca-Cola HBC (1Q24 trading update) (7:00 am BST), Entersoft (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt)

01/05/24 | National Bank of Greece (1Q24) (Bef-mkt)

09/05/24 | Titan Cement International (1Q24)

14/05/24 | OTE (1Q24) (bef-mkt)

16/05/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (1Q24), Eurobank Holdings (1Q24), HELLENiQ ENERGY (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

21/05/24 | Optima bank (1Q24), Fourlis (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

22/05/24 | ElvalHalcor (1Q24 trading update) (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

23/05/24 | PPC (1Q24) (Aft-mkt), Ideal Holdings (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt)

27/05/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (1Q24)

28/05/24 | Cenergy Holdings (1Q24), Epsilon Net (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt)

29/05/24 | OPAP (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)

31/05/24 | Austriacard Holdings (1Q24), Attica Bank (1Q24)

EGM / AGM

25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM), AΙA (AGM), MIG (AGM)

30/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM), PPC (EGM), BriQ Properties (AGM)

09/05/24 | Titan Cement (AGM)

10/05/24 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (AGM)

15/05/24 | Alpha Trust Holding (AGM), Revoil (AGM)

17/05/24 | Trastor REIC (AGM), Entersoft (AGM)

21/05/24 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)

22/05/24 | Jumbo (AGM)

23/05/24 | Optima bank (AGM), ElvalHalcor (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)

28/05/24 | Viohalco (AGM), Cenergy (AGM)

29/05/24 | Attica Group (AGM)

30/05/24 | Intralot (AGM)

31/05/24 | Ellaktor (AGM)

04/06/24 | Mytilineos (AGM)

06/06/24 | Ideal Holdings (AGM)

10/06/24 | Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)

13/06/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM)

14/06/24 | Trade Estates (AGM)

17/06/24 | Loulis Food (AGM)

19/06/24 | Motor Oil (AGM), Viokarpet (AGM)

20/06/24 | AS Company (AGM), Space Hellas (AGM)

21/06/24 | Fourlis (AGM)

27/06/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), PPC (AGM), LAMDA Development (AGM), Elastron (AGM)

28/06/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), OTE (AGM), Epsilon Net (AGM)

02/07/24 | Intrakat (AGM)

03/07/24 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)

04/07/24 | Alumil (AGM)

09/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings (AGM), KRI-KRI (AGM)

10/07/24 | Piraeus Port (AGM), Attica Bank (AGM)

11/07/24 | EYDAP (AGM)

23/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)

25/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (AGM)

Ex-Dividend

29/04/24 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.60)

02/05/24 | Sarantis (EUR 0.224381)

08/05/24 | BriQ Properties

13/05/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.30)

14/05/24 | Thessaloniki Port Authority

20/05/24 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.75), Alpha Trust Holding, Revoil (EUR 0.048)

21/05/24 | Athens Airport (EUR 0.33)

05/06/24 | Attica Group (EUR 0.07)

19/06/24 | Trade Estates

25/06/24 | Titan Cement (EUR 0.85), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.24), ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.04), Viohalco (EUR 0.12), Cenergy (EUR 0.08)

26/06/24 | Motor Oil (rem. EUR 1.40), Mytilineos (EUR 1.50), Fourlis (EUR 0.12)

01/07/24 | Loulis Food

04/07/24 | OTE (EUR 0.71)

05/07/24 | Trastor REIC

10/07/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (rem. EUR 0.60), Jumbo (EUR 1.00), AS Company

16/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net

22/07/24 | PPC, EYDAP, Space Hellas

29/07/24 | Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34)

22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)

02/09/24 | ADMIE Holding

Ex-Capital Return

25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)

25/07/24 | Ideal Holdings

ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)

24/04/24 | Lavipharm (09:30 Athens time)

26/04/24 | Thrace Plastics (11:00 Athens time, videoconference) 

Research Department
Equity Research

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr

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