ADMIE Holding 9M24 Results today bmo, ATHEX FTSE semi-annual rebalancing Friday at the close, Optima bank enters Large cap, replacing Autohellas). We expect some pressure on the bank stocks today.
Market Comment
ATHEX headed north on Friday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.36% at 1,469.32 units (FTSE Large Cap: 0.32%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.66%, Banks Index: 0.47%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 95.9m, down from Thursday’s EUR 136.5m.
- On a weekly basis, the General Index was up by 0.88% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +0.92%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.67%, Banks index: +1.37%). Ahead this week: ADMIE Holding 9M24 Results today bmo, ATHEX FTSE semi-annual rebalancing Friday at the close, Optima bank enters Large cap, replacing Autohellas). We expect some pressure on the bank stocks today.
Today’s Headlines
· State Budget for 2025 voted yesterday
· Government measures on banks, estimate 5% impact on 2025 EPS and TPs
· Alpha Bank to absorb Alpha Holdings, announced new Chairman of BoD
· PPC’s HEDNO seeks higher WACC for 2025-28e
· Autohellas increased its stake in Aegean Airlines
· Trade Estates to trade ex-dividend today
· ADMIE Holding 9M24 results out today
Macro Headlines
State Budget for 2025 voted for yesterday
The State Budget was ratified by the Greek parliament yesterday with 159 votes in favor. As a reminder, the state budget for 2025e expects GDP growth at 2.2% and 2.3% for 2024e and 2025e respectively, primary surplus of 2.5% and 2.4% and deficit of the general government at 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. Additionally, the Debt/GDP ratio is expected to decline from 163.9% in 2023 to 154% in 2024e and 147.5% in 2025e, harmonized Inflation to drop to 2.8% in 2024e and 2.1% in 2025e (from 4.2% in 2023) and unemployment to further drop to 8.7% and 8.2% in 2024e/25e (from 9.4% in 2023).
Sector Headlines
Government measures on banks, estimate 5% impact on 2025 EPS and TPs
The Prime Minister announced yesterday that banks won’t charge any fees on bills (electricity, fixed and mobile, water bills, obligations to the State) and imposed a cap of EUR 0.50 on money transfers up to EUR 5,000. On top of that, the Prime Minister also announced that the four systemic banks will pay a one-off contribution of EUR 100.0m for the reconstruction of old schools or the building of new ones as well as another EUR 100.0m for the property and sale and lease back agency. Finally, the property tax that lenders pay for the properties they manage will double from 2026. According to press reports (euro2day, mononews), the cost of zero fees is estimated at EUR 100.0m (EUR 25.0m per systemic bank), the one-off contributions at EUR 200.0m (EUR 50.0m per systemic bank) as well as the cost of higher tax on properties at EUR 10.0m. All in all, the total cost is estimated at EUR 310.0m, of which EUR 300.0m (EUR 75.0m per systemic bank) will burden 2025 profits. Based on the aforementioned reports, we’ll trim our 2025 EPS and Target Price estimates by 5% on average. Recall that Eurobank will have the lowest impact due to the full consolidation of Hellenic Bank in 2025. We expect some pressure on the sector today.
Company Headlines
Alpha Bank to absorb Alpha Holdings, announced new Chairman of BoD
Alpha Services and Holdings, 100% parent of Alpha Bank announced that its BoD resolved today the initiation of the merger process, by way of which Alpha Bank shall proceed with a merger by absorption of Alpha Holdings. Alpha Bank will retain its license as a credit institution, succeeding by force of law and by way of a universal succession Alpha Holdings in any and all of its assets and liabilities. Prior to the merger completion, the shares of Alpha Bank, the surviving entity of the merger, will be admitted to listing on the Athens Exchange and its shares will be delivered upon merger completion to the shareholders of the company in exchange for their shares in the company.
Furthermore, Alpha also announced the appointment of Mr. Tsitsiragos as the new Chairman of the BoD with effect as of January 1, 2025. Mr. Tsitsiragos has been a Member of the Board of Directors, the Remuneration Committee and the Risk Management Committee since July 2020 and was appointed as Chair of the Remuneration Committee in July 2023.
He served for 28 years at the International Finance Corporation (IFC) – World Bank Group. He also served as a Senior Advisor Emerging Markets at PIMCO in London, UK (2018-2022). He previously served as a non-executive independent Board Member at the Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC), India and at the Commercial Bank of Ceylon (CBC), Sri Lanka.
Finally, he is a Member of the Board of Directors of Titan Cement International. The merger has NO impact on shareholders who will have the same number of shares as before. The news is positive, since Alpha simplifies its structure and contains some administrative costs. We expect Eurobank Holdings and Piraeus Financial Holdings to follow. Recall that Eurobank announced its intention in 3Q24 conference call.
PPC’s HEDNO seeks higher WACC for 2025-28e
PPC’s distribution operator, HEDNO requests from the energy regulator increased WACC to 8.2% for the new regulator period 2025-28e from 7.66% in 2021-24.
Autohellas increased its stake in Aegean Airlines
The company announced that Autohellas a company linked with the Chairman of the BoD of the company bought on 12 December 27,700 shares for a total consideration of EUR 279,431.
Trade Estates to trade ex-dividend today
The stock is trading ex-dividend today (EUR 0.047706, Yield: 2.9%).
ADMIE Holding 9M24 results out today
ADMIE Holding is set to release the 9M24 results today before the market opening.
Calendar of Events
Macros
20/12/24 | Current Account Balance OCT (BoG) & Turnover Index in Industry OCT (ELSTAT)
27/12/24 | Building Activity SEP (ELSTAT)
30/12/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry NOV (ELSTAT)
31/12/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade OCT (ELSTAT)
Market
20/12/24 | ATHEX Semi-Annual Index Review (changes effective after market close)
9M24 Results Release
16/12/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt)
EGM / AGM
16/12/24 | AS Company (EGM)
19/12/24 | Technical Olympic (EGM)
24/12/24 | MED (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
16/12/24 | Trade Estates (interim dividend EUR 0.047706)
19/12/24 | AS Company
23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)
20/01/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (interim dividend EUR 0.20)
23/01/25 | Thrace Plastics (interim dividend EUR 0.0685848289)
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