Greek Market Watch: State Budget, Electricity market, ATHEX/FTSE Indices, CENERGY, AIA, Alpha Bank, NBG, BoC, Terna Energy, Jumbo, OTE, Fourlis, Intracom/Intralot

Today’s Headlines

·         Draft State Budget to be submitted today at the parliament (press)

·         Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – September 2024

·         Changes in ATHEX/FTSE Indices

·         CENERGY proceeds with the up to EUR 200m SCI

·         Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for September

·         Alpha Bank new VES targets the withdrawal of more than 300 employees-Press 

·         HFSF holds a 8.39% stake in National Bank of Greece

·         Popular Bank is waiting for de-escalation in the Middle East to dispose its stake in BoC-Press 

·         TERNA ENERGY demerges the waste management and the ultra-fast broadband infrastructure construction business sectors

·         Jumbo Share buyback

·         OTE Share Buyback

·         Fourlis stock award plan (already announced)

·         Intracom Holdings bought Intralot shares

ATHEX headed north on Friday, after five consecutive sessions with losses, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index climbed by 1.37% at 1,437.88 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.55%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.61%, Banks Index: +1.70%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 164.4m, down from Thursday’s EUR 810.0m.

• On a weekly basis, the General Index tumbled by 2.10% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: -2.62%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.61%, Banks index: -3.84%).

We expect the European stock markets to set the tone today, with NBG, Bank of Cyprus and Cenergy Holdings in the spotlight.    

Macro Headlines 

Draft State Budget to be submitted today at the parliament (press)

According to Euro2day.gr, the Minister of Finance will submit today for approval to the Parliament the draft of the state budget for 2025e, which envisages Primary surplus of 2.4%, HICP of 2.1%, unemployment at 9.5% and GDP Growth of 2.3%. 

Sector Headlines 

Energy Sector || Greek retail electricity market (EnexGroup) – September 2024

Greek retail electricity market: IPPs market share rose to 49.4% in September 2024 (according to data from Greek Energy Exchange – EnEx). Other key statistics: a) monthly average clearing Price at EUR 112.35/MWh, down by EUR 17.5/MWh m-o-m and up by EUR 10.4/MWh y-o-y, b) total Electricity demand at 4,990/GWh, up by 9.8% y-o-y. In more detail, Mytilineos’ Protergia ranks first with 16.64% (18.45% combined with the recently acquired Volterra), GEKTERNA’s Heron follows with 11.72%, ELPE’s Elpedison with 5.85% and MOH’s NRG with 5.22%. As a result, PPC’s retail market share in September 2024 dropped by 4.3% m-o-m to 50.6%, slightly above the EU-mandated 50% mark. Regarding the Generation mix traded in the Day-Ahead Market, RES ranks first with 37% of total (vs. 38% in August), Natural Gas follows with 36% (vs. 36% in the previous month), Hydro Plants 5% (5%), Lignite and Oil-Powered Plants contributed 3% (4%) and 3% (4%) respectively and finally, Imports 16% (12%). 

Market Headlines 

Changes in ATHEX/FTSE Indices

According to ATHEX, the free float of National Bank of Greece will increase to 92% from 82% previously and Bank of Cyprus will be included in ATHEX Composite Index with 56% free float. The changes are effective today at the close. 

Company Headlines 

CENERGY proceeds with the up to EUR 200m SCI

Following the relevant approval by the company AGM, CENERGY’s BoD approved the up to EUR 200m share capital increase of the Company, with the application of a Preferential Allocation to Existing Minority Shareholders (as defined by record date as of 7^th of October) at a maximum offer price of the new shares set at EUR 9.86/share. The Offer is expected to be launched in the next days, whilst delivery of the New Shares is expected to be completed around mid-October, subject to market conditions. Finally, allocation of the New Shares is expected to be split between the Institutional Offer (80%), while the remaining 20.0% of the New Shares will be allocated to Retail Investors and/or Qualified Investors. 

Athens Airport releases strong passenger traffic for September

Athens International Airport (AIA) released its passenger traffic data for September 2024, according to which total passenger traffic up by 9.7% y-o-y, driven by international traffic (up by 12.3% YoY), while domestic traffic was also up +4.0% y-o-y. For the 9M24 total passenger traffic was up by +13.3% y-o-y, reaching 24.6m passengers with international passengers up by 16.0% (+2.3m passengers) y-o-y and domestic passengers up by 7.3% y-o-y. 

Alpha Bank new VES targets the withdrawal of more than 300 employees-Press 

Reportedly (euro2day), the new VES that Alpha announced on 30 September with a compensation of up to 260k, targets the withdrawal of more than 300 employees. Recall that Alpha had 5,433 bank employees in 1H2024. 

HFSF holds a 8.39% stake in National Bank of Greece

National Bank of Greece announced that HFSF controls a 8.39% stake, corresponding to 76,759,926 voting rights from 18.39% previously. National Bank of Greece is one of our top picks in the sector, with a TP of EUR 12.00/share. 

Popular Bank is waiting for de-escalation in the Middle East to dispose its stake in BoC-Press 

Press reports (euro2day) suggest that Cyprus Popular Bank is waiting for the de-escalation of the tension in the Middle East to dispose its 4.83% stake, corresponding to 21,388,919 common shares. 

TERNA ENERGY demerges the waste management and the ultra-fast broadband infrastructure construction business sectors

TERNA ENERGY, in the context of the sale agreement with Masdar, announced its intention to procced with the demerger and spin-off of a) the public works construction, waste management and public private partnerships (PPP) projects and b) the ultra-fast broadband infrastructure construction business sectors. Following the completion of the demerger, which is subject to the general meeting of the company’s shareholders, the Company will remain listed on ATHEX. 

Jumbo Share buyback

The company announced that it purchased on 3 October, 38,900 own shares at an average price of EUR 25.702. The company now holds 150,592 shares or 0.11% of the total share capital. 

OTE Share Buyback

The company announced that during 30/09/2024 – 04/10/2024, it purchased 258,570 own shares at an average price of EUR 15.551 per share and now holds 3,532,462 own shares or 0.856% of the total outstanding shares.  

Fourlis stock award plan (already announced)

The AGM of the company approved the share capital increase of EUR 385,033 by the capitalization of reserves and nominal value of EUR 1.00/share. The new 385,033 shares (0.74% of the company’s share capital) will be distributed for free to the senior executives of the company. 

Intracom Holdings bought Intralot shares

Intralot announced that Intracom Holdings acquired on Friday, 100,000 common shares of Intralot at an average price of EUR 1.111 and for a total value of EUR 111,116.38.  

Calendar of Events

Macros

10/10/24 | CPI SEP & Industrial Production Index AUG

11/10/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises AUG

15/10/24 | Import Price Index in Industry AUG

17/10/24 | 2023 GDP (provisional data)

18/10/24 | S&P Global Ratings – Greek sovereign credit review

3Q/9M24 Results Release

24/10/24 | Metlen, Sarantis

31/10/24 | Coca-Cola HBC

01/11/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings

05/11/24 | National Bank of Greece

07/11/24 | Eurobank Holdings, Titan Cement, PPC

08/11/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings

12/11/24 | Optima bank

EGM / AGM

23/10/24 | GEK TERNA (EGM)

30/10/24 | Kloukinas-Lappas (EGM)

04/11/24 | PPC (EGM)

Ex-Dividend

11/10/24 | Domaine Costa Lazaridi (EUR 0.03)

21/10/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.17), Moda Bagno (EUR 0.38)

23/10/24 | ELVE (EUR 0.40)

04/11/24 | OPAP (interim dividend EUR 0.60)

Research Department
Equity Research 

Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]

32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr