Today’s Headlines
· Trade balance deficit widens in September (ELSTAT)
· Optima bank | 3Q/9M24 results out on Monday 11 November
· MOTOR OIL updates on the impact of the fire in the refinery
· Alpha Services and Holdings | A strong quarter in line with consensus-above our call, Mgt upgraded FY guidance
· National Bank of Greece | A strong quarter in line with estimates, Mgt increased distribution payout target
· Eurobank Holdings | 3Q24 results beat estimates, Mgt upgraded FY guidance and increased distribution payout
· Eurobank increases its stake in Hellenic to 68.81%
· Titan Cement 3Q/9M24e Results Review | Broadly in line with our call and consensus, US IPO expected in 1Q25e
· Jumbo 9M24 sales update
· CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables signs turnkey contract for submarine interconnection of the Ionian islands
Macro Headlines
Trade balance deficit widens in September (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT announced that the trade balance in September 2024 amounted to EUR 3,057.7 in comparison with EUR 2,708.9m a year ago, recording a 12.9% y-o-y increase, due to the 2.1% drop in imports and the 4.6% drop in exports. Additionally, the trade balance deficit in the January-September 2024 period amounted to EUR 25,130.2m, up by 8.5% y-o-y, due to the 2.1% increase in imports and the 1.8% drop in exports.
Company Headlines
Optima bank || CP: EUR 12.70 | Restricted
3Q/9M24 results out on Monday 11 November
Optima bank is set to report 3Q/9M24 results on Monday 11 November, before the opening of ATHEX. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Consensus forecasts net profit to reach EUR 38.1m (+5% q-o-q, +36% y-o-y) in 3Q24 and EUR 107.1m (+49% y-o-y) in 9M24.
|
(EUR m) |
Cons 3Q24e |
2Q24 |
QoQ |
3Q23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
49.1 |
47.0 |
4% |
38.3 |
28% |
|
Fee income |
10.2 |
9.3 |
10% |
8.2 |
24% |
|
Core income |
59.5 |
56.3 |
6% |
46.5 |
28% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
5.0 |
6.1 |
-19% |
5.1 |
-2% |
|
Total revenues |
65.1 |
62.5 |
4% |
51.6 |
26% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(14.1) |
(12.5) |
12% |
(14.4) |
-2% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
50.8 |
49.9 |
2% |
37.2 |
37% |
|
Loan impairments |
(3.0) |
(2.4) |
24% |
(3.4) |
-11% |
|
Net Profit |
38.1 |
36.3 |
5% |
28.0 |
36% |
source: Company Median consensus estimate, Optima bank
MOTOR OIL updates on the impact of the fire in the refinery
MOTOR OIL provided yesterday an update on the impact of the fire in the refinery, setting one of the two crude distillation units (CDU) inoperative since 17 September. According to the company, the damaged unit is undergoing restoration works and the initial estimate is that the repair works are expected to be completed within Q3 2025. MOH expects that the production capacity of the Company’s Refinery during the period of the repair works will be at a range of 65-80% of the Refinery’s total nominal capacity (currently at 75%). It is noted that the Company is comprehensively insured for property damages as well as for the loss of operational profits due to the interruption of operations as per usual market practice. In more detail, MOH will be fully compensated for the restoration cost of the unit; with regards to the income loss, MOH will be compensated for the unutilized capacity at the same margins recorded by MOH during the restoration period (management said margins are good currently), after a 2-month period deductible from insurance compensation. Finally, the first installment of the insurance compensation will be collected by the end of 2024, and then at the pace of invoicing.
Alpha Services and Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 1.4255 | TP: EUR 2.10
A strong quarter in line with consensus-above our call, Mgt upgraded FY guidance
Optima View: Alpha delivered a strong set of results that came in line with consensus and beat our estimates on higher non-core revenues and lower LLPs and VES cost. Following the strong set of results, we’ll upgrade our estimates. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.10/share.
2024 Guidance Upgrade: Management upgraded once more 2024 guidance and expects now normalized EPS in 2024 to increase further by 3% and to reach EUR 0.34 from 0.33 previously and normalized net profit at EUR 800.0m from EUR 776.5m previously. NPE ratio is targeted to fall below 4%, with another inorganic action in 4Q24. Moreover, net interest income is expected to be at least flat in 2025.
DTC acceleration: Management will add on the straight line amortization of EUR 160m, the annual payout multiplied by 29% in order to eliminate DTC in 2033. The acceleration has no impact on P&L, distributable income or Tangible Equity.
P & L: Reported net profit came in at EUR 166.7m (+51% q-o-q), well above Optima estimate of EUR 132.8m (higher non-core revenues and lower LLPs and VES cost) and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 163.0m. Reported net profit reached EUR 489.2m (-2% y-o-y) in 9M24. Net interest income reached EUR 410.0m (-0.3% q-o-q), 2% above Optima estimate of EUR 400.4m and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 403.0m. Pre-provision income came in at EUR 335.3m (+2% q-o-q), 6% above Optima estimate of EUR 315.3m and 7% above consensus estimate of EUR 314.0m. Loan loss provisions stood at EUR 53.1m (+3% q-o-q), 13% below Optima estimate of EUR 60.7m and 14% below consensus estimate of EUR 62.0m.
|
(EUR m) |
3Q24 |
2Q24 |
QoQ |
3Q23 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
vs Cons |
|
|
Net Interest Income |
410.0 |
411.1 |
0% |
434.2 |
-6% |
2% |
2% |
|
|
Fee income |
108.8 |
100.1 |
9% |
101.4 |
7% |
1% |
2% |
|
|
Core income |
518.8 |
511.2 |
1% |
535.6 |
-3% |
2% |
2% |
|
|
Non-core Revenues |
27.2 |
30.4 |
-11% |
-1.2 |
-2425% |
36% |
36% |
|
|
Total revenues |
546.0 |
541.7 |
1% |
534.4 |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|
|
Operating Expenses |
(210.7) |
(212.8) |
-1% |
(206.4) |
2% |
-1% |
-2% |
|
|
Pre Provision Profit |
335.3 |
328.9 |
2% |
328.0 |
2% |
6% |
7% |
|
|
LLPs |
(53.1) |
(51.8) |
3% |
(73.0) |
-27% |
-13% |
-14% |
|
|
NPA loss |
(18.4) |
(101.6) |
-82% |
2.1 |
– |
84% |
1740% |
|
|
Reported net profit |
166.7 |
110.3 |
51% |
195.0 |
-14% |
26% |
2% |
source: Optima Research, Company, Company-Median consensus estimates
|
(EUR m) |
9M24 |
9M23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,242.7 |
1,218.8 |
2% |
|
Fee income |
305.6 |
274.5 |
11% |
|
Core income |
1,548.4 |
1,493.3 |
4% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
94.6 |
52.1 |
82% |
|
Total revenues |
1,642.9 |
1,545.4 |
6% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(627.3) |
(627.4) |
0% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
1,015.6 |
918.0 |
11% |
|
LLPs |
(172.6) |
(216.8) |
-20% |
|
NPA loss |
(126.6) |
(16.2) |
683% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
489.2 |
497.7 |
-2% |
source: Company
National Bank of Greece || BUY | CP: EUR 7.63 | TP: EUR 12.00
A strong quarter in line with estimates, Mgt increased distribution payout target
Optima View: National Bank of Greece reported another strong quarter and consequently management intends to increase the distribution payout target of 2024 earnings. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 12.00/share.
Higher Distribution target for 2024: Management intends to increase the distribution target up to 50% of 2024 earnings from 40% previously, whilst the final decision will be taken in early 2025. We estimate that NBG could distribute up to EUR 607m or EUR 0.66 per share, implying a gross yield of 8.7%, well above EU peers (7.1%). Management stated that the distribution will combine cash and share buyback.
2024 Guidance: Management reiterated Core profit after tax target of EUR ca1.3bn, higher than our estimate of EUR ca1.19bn. It expects NII to be higher in 2024 vs. 2023, in line with our estimate (+1% y-o-y) and reiterated that NIM will exceed 300bps and more likely to 310bps, higher than our estimate of 300ps. NII sensitivity: for 25bps at EUR 35m on a static balance sheet. Finally, management also sees upside risk on fee income. Net credit expansion stood at EUR 1.0bn in 9M24 and has already met FY target of EUR 1.5bn in November, with a strong pipeline of over EUR 2.0bn. Finally, management stated in the CC that is planning a new VES in the next month.
DTC acceleration: Management will add on the straight line amortization of EUR 200m, the annual payout multiplied by 29% in order to eliminate DTC in 2032-2033 instead of 2041. The acceleration has no impact on P&L, distributable income or Tangible Equity.
P & L: Net profit came in at EUR 315.0m (+1% q-o-q), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 312.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 311.7m. Net profit also reached EUR 985m (+24% y-o-y) in 9M2024. Net interest income reached EUR 589.0m (0% q-o-q), broadly in line with Optima estimate of EUR 580.8m and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 577.9m. NIM squeezed by just 2bps q-o-q to 3.20%. Fee income stood at EUR 108.0m (+2% q-o-q), 8% above Optima and 2% above consensus estimates. Pre-provision income came in at EUR 497.0m (+2% q-o-q), 2% above Optima estimate of EUR 487.4m and 3% above consensus estimate of EUR 481.4m. Loan loss provisions and other impairments stood at EUR 52.0m (0% q-o-q), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 52.1m and 2% below consensus estimate of EUR 53.1m.
Balance sheet: Performing loans stood at EUR 31.4bn, flattish q-o-q and net loans at 34.1bn, while deposits dropped by EUR 77m q-o-q to EUR 57.0bn. Assets reached EUR 74.0bn.
Capital: Tangible Equity was shaped at EUR 7.7bn (EUR +11m q-o-q) and Core RoTE at 17.4%. FL CET1 widened to 18.7% from 18.3% in 2Q24.
Asset quality: Group NPEs stood at EUR 1.16bn (EUR -8.1m q-o-q), the NPE ratio was flattish at 3.3% and the cash coverage at 86.0% from 85.6% in 2Q.
|
(EUR m) |
3Q24 |
2Q24 |
QoQ |
3Q23 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
vs Cons |
|
|
Net Interest Income |
589.0 |
586.7 |
0% |
587.9 |
0% |
1% |
2% |
|
|
Fee income |
108.0 |
105.5 |
2% |
95.2 |
13% |
8% |
2% |
|
|
Core income |
697.0 |
692.2 |
1% |
683.1 |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
|
Non-core Revenues |
18.0 |
4.3 |
319% |
7.0 |
157% |
20% |
80% |
|
|
Total revenues |
715.0 |
696.5 |
3% |
690.1 |
4% |
3% |
3% |
|
|
Operating Expenses |
(217.0) |
(210.4) |
3% |
(202.2) |
7% |
4% |
2% |
|
|
Pre Provision Profit |
497.0 |
486.1 |
2% |
487.9 |
2% |
2% |
3% |
|
|
LLPs & Other impairments |
(52.0) |
(52.0) |
0% |
(54.0) |
-4% |
0% |
-2% |
|
|
Reported net profit |
315.0 |
312.1 |
1% |
261.1 |
21% |
1% |
1% |
source: Optima Research, Company, Company-Median consensus estimates
|
(EUR m) |
9M24 |
9M23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,782.0 |
1,639.6 |
9% |
|
Fee income |
313.0 |
273.2 |
15% |
|
Core income |
2,094.0 |
1,912.8 |
9% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
82.0 |
63.3 |
30% |
|
Total revenues |
2,176.0 |
1,976.1 |
10% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(639.0) |
(601.5) |
6% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
1,538.0 |
1,374.6 |
12% |
|
LLP and other impairments |
(159.0) |
(174.8) |
-9% |
|
Reported Net Profit |
985.0 |
791.3 |
24% |
source: Company
Eurobank Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 1.9880 | TP: EUR 2.80
3Q24 results beat estimates, Mgt upgraded FY guidance and increased distribution payout
Optima View: Eurobank delivered a robust set of 3Q24 results, that beat Optima and consensus estimates by 12%, on higher fee income, non-core revenues and lower OpEx. On top of that, management upgraded once more 2024 guidance as well as increased the distribution payout to shareholders to 50% of 2024 earnings vs. 40% previously, combining cash and share buyback. Last but not least, it announced the merger of Eurobank with Eurobank Holdings in 2025, with the absorption of Eurobank Holdings by Eurobank. Given the strong 3Q performance, we’ll upgrade our 2024 reported net profit estimate of EUR 1.33bn. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.80/share and expect the stock to head north today.
2024 Guidance Upgrade: Management expects now Core Operating Profit to surpass EUR 1.7bn from >1.6bn previously and in line with our estimate of EUR 1.72bn. RoaTBV is expected to exceed 17.5% from >16.5% previously and to stand at 15.0% in the medium term. NIM is also expected at 280bps in 2024. NII is expected to increase by 15% y-o-y, fees close to 15% y-o-y and CoR in the area of 70bps. NII sensitivity: for every 25bps rate cut, NII drops by EUR 42-45m per annum, including the current level of hedging.
Higher Distribution payout for 2024: Management also increased 2024 distribution payout target to 50% of earnings vs. 40% previously, combining cash and share buyback. Thus, we expect to distribute EUR 667m or EUR 0.18/share, implying a yield of 9.1%, well above EU peers (median at 7.1%). As far as the distribution from 2025 onwards is concerned, they might increase the payout to >50%, if there are no M&A opportunities.
DTC acceleration: Management will add on the straight line amortization of EUR 190m, the annual payout multiplied by 29% in order to eliminate DTC in 2032 instead of 2041. The acceleration has no impact on P&L, distributable income or Tangible Equity.
P & L KPIs: Adjusted net profit (before one-offs) came in at EUR 413.1m (+19% q-o-q) in 3Q24, 12% above Optima estimate of EUR 369.2m and consensus estimate of EUR 369.9m. Greece accounted for 57% of group’s adjusted net profit, Hellenic for 15%, Eurobank Cyprus for 14%, Postbank for 13% and Luxembourg for the remaining 2%. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 697.7m (+24% q-o-q), 1% above Optima estimate of EUR 690.1m and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 687.2m. Group NIM widened by 2bps q-o-q to 2.81%. Fee income reached EUR 167.8m (+14% q-o-q), 4% above Optima and 3% above consensus estimates. Total revenues came in at EUR 891.4m (+26% q-o-q), beating our estimate by 4% and consensus estimate by 3%. Operating expenses surged by 30% q-o-q to EUR 297.1m, 3% lower than Optima and 2% lower than consensus estimates. Pre-provision profit came in at EUR 594.3m (+24% q-o-q), 7% above Optima estimate of EUR 554.7m and 5% above consensus estimate of EUR 565.0m. Loan loss provisions amounted to EUR 85.3m (+17% q-o-q), 7% above Optima estimate of EUR 79.8m and 4% above consensus estimate of EUR 82.0m. Adjusted net profit reached EUR 1.14bn (+25% y-o-y) in 9M24.
Balance sheet: Performing loans grew by EUR 2.1bn y-t-d and EUR 1.0bn q-o-q to EUR 50.4bn, already meeting the FY net credit expansion target and thus mgt revised it to EUR 3.5bn for 2024 and expect to rise by 7% y-o-y in 2025. Net loans increased by EUR 6.9bn q-o-q to EUR 49.1bn. Deposits increased also by EUR 16.0bn q-o-q to EUR 74.6bnm. Assets reached EUR 99.6bn.
Capital: Tangible Equity was shaped at EUR 8.33bn and TBVPS at EUR 2.27. RoaTBV widened to 19.9% in 3Q24 from 17.3% in 2Q24. Pro-forma FL CET1 widened to 17.8% from 16.2% in 2Q24. The excess capital might be used for M & A opportunities in banking and insurance in the three core markets of the group as well as in asset management in other markets.
MREL issues: 3Q24 MREL ratio at 29%, 100bps above Final target. They will issue a new Tier 2 note in early 2025.
Asset quality: Group NPEs stood at EUR 1.47bn, the NPE ratio squeezed to 2.92% from 3.08% in 2Q and the cash coverage narrowed to 89.9% from 93.2% in 2Q. NPE flow decelerated to EUR 50m compared to EUR 66m in 2Q.
Hellenic Bank: The objective is to acquire 100% of Hellenic. Eurobank will announce the new Business Plan with 2024 results. They have pencilled EUR 120m of synergies that will be deployed in three years, of which 1/3 (EUR 40m) in 2025.
|
(EUR m) |
3Q24 |
2Q24 |
QoQ |
3Q23 |
YoY |
vs Optima |
vs Consensus |
|
Net Interest Income |
697.7 |
560.9 |
24% |
558.4 |
25% |
1% |
2% |
|
Fee income |
167.8 |
147.1 |
14% |
133.1 |
26% |
4% |
3% |
|
Core income |
865.5 |
708.0 |
22% |
691.5 |
25% |
2% |
2% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
26.0 |
(2.1) |
-1335% |
11.7 |
123% |
210% |
30% |
|
Total revenues |
891.4 |
705.9 |
26% |
703.2 |
27% |
4% |
3% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(297.1) |
(228.4) |
30% |
(229.4) |
30% |
-3% |
-2% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
594.3 |
477.5 |
24% |
473.8 |
25% |
7% |
5% |
|
Loan impairments |
(85.3) |
(72.7) |
17% |
(90.4) |
-6% |
7% |
4% |
|
Adjusted Net Profit (before one-offs) |
413.1 |
348.5 |
19% |
317.8 |
30% |
12% |
12% |
source: Company, Optima bank estimates, Median Consensus estimates-Company
|
(EUR m) |
9M24 |
9M23 |
YoY |
|
Net Interest Income |
1,829.7 |
1,601.0 |
14% |
|
Fee income |
450.5 |
403.1 |
12% |
|
Core income |
2,280.2 |
2,004.0 |
14% |
|
Non-core Revenues |
71.6 |
30.4 |
136% |
|
Total revenues |
2,351.8 |
2034.4 |
16% |
|
Operating Expenses |
(754.3) |
(672.7) |
12% |
|
Pre Provision Profit |
1,597.5 |
1361.7 |
17% |
|
Loan impairments |
(228.9) |
(254.7) |
-10% |
|
Adjusted Net Profit (before one-offs) |
1,144.7 |
916.3 |
25% |
source: Company
Eurobank increases its stake in Hellenic to 68.81%
Eurobank Holdings announced that its subsidiary Eurobank S.A. has entered into share purchase agreements (“SPA”) with the Cyprus Union of Bank Employees (ETYK), the Cyprus Bank Employees Welfare Fund, the Cyprus Bank Employees Health Fund and the Financial Sector Provident Fund, pursuant to which, Eurobank has agreed to acquire 12,848% holding (53,037,786 shares) in Hellenic Bank for a consideration of ca EUR 243m or EUR 4.58/share, at 17.7% premium to yesterday’s closing price and implying a P/TBV24e of 1.03x. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and will be completed after their fulfillment and in any case not earlier than 8 February 2025, which is six months after the completion of the last mandatory tender offer. Until completion, the sellers shall have the full legal and beneficial ownership of the shares agreed to be sold, together with all rights attached thereto. Eurobank, currently holds 55.962% in Hellenic Bank, therefore after the completion of the transaction, its total holding in Hellenic Bank will amount to 68.81%. The news is positive and expected. In accordance with the provisions of the Takeover Bids Law of 2007 in Cyprus, Eurobank will proceed, following the completion of the transaction, to a tender offer for all the outstanding shares of Hellenic Bank that it will not already hold at the time. In addition, Eurobank announced that it has entered into a share purchase agreement with the Cyprus Bank Employees Welfare Fund, the Cyprus Bank Employees Health Fund and the Financial Sector Provident Fund pursuant to which Eurobank has agreed to acquire 8.58% holding (17,152,353 shares) in Demetra Holdings Plc, for a consideration of ca. EUR 32.4m, corresponding to €1.89 per share. Demetra is a holding company and, among other, it owns 21.3% in Hellenic Bank, being the second largest shareholder after Eurobank. The participation in Hellenic Bank represents approximately 77% of Demetra’s equity, based on the published accounts of 30.06.2024.
Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 33.00 | TP EUR 40.60
3Q/9M24e Results Review | Broadly in line with our call and consensus, US IPO expected in 1Q25e
Titan Cement International (TCI) reported marginally down by 0.2% y-o-y turnover at EUR 661.6m for 3Q24 (in line with our and consensus estimates), while flattish EBITDA margin at 23.5% resulted in unchanged y-o-y EBITDA at EUR 155.6m (also in line with our call and consensus). Further down the P&L, reported net income dropped to EUR 75.9m (down by 12.5% y-o-y, negatively impacted by EUR 8m one-off expenses towards the US IPO and a VRS in Greece), also in line with our call and consensus estimate. Operating Cash Flow in 9M24 shaped at EUR 186m and accounting for investing outflows at EUR 180.5m (fueled by US investments), dividend payment and share buyback (Titan holds 5.04% treasury shares), Group net debt closed at EUR 670m, up by EUR 10m y-t-d and by EUR 95m y-o-y, at a comfortable 1.1x Net Debt/EBITDA leverage ratio. The company says that the outlook for the rest of the year remains positive, driven by volume growth and resilient pricing in the US and Europe. Additionally, Titan said that the US listing is progressing according to schedule, with the IPO expected to take place in 1Q25. Finally, Titan cement launched this August a new share buyback program, again for a total value of up to EUR 20m, in replacement of a similar one which expired at the end of August 2024. The Company will hold a conference call today (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Conference call highlights-limited newsflow: a) US IPO progresses according to schedule, completion of the IPO in 1Q25, b) US infrastructure demand to pick-up in the next years, regardless of the US elections outcome, c) capex at EUR 240-250m in 2024-25e
Comment: Strong 9M24 for Titan, despite adversities (adverse weather in the USA, maintenance in the US plants, elevated electricity costs in Greece), on a tough comparables on a very strong 9M23. That said, and taking into account a) the positive outlook for the remainder of 2024, b) the IPO of the US operations in the New York stock market and c) the attractive valuation of the stock at current levels (24-27% discount compared to EU peers and >60% compared to US in P/E terms), we reiterate our Buy recommendation of the stock, with a Target Price at EUR 40.6/share.
Titan Cement 3Q/9M24 Group Key P&L Results
|
EUR m |
3Q23 |
3Q24 |
Y-o-Y change |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
Consensus |
Actual vs. Consensus |
9M23 |
9M24 |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
663.1 |
661.6 |
-0.2% |
658.0 |
0.5% |
668 |
-1.0% |
1,892.2 |
1,984.6 |
4.9% |
|
Greece |
101.7 |
105.5 |
3.7% |
103.1 |
2.3% |
|
|
299.0 |
324.0 |
8.4% |
|
USA |
369.2 |
376.7 |
2.0% |
372.0 |
1.3% |
|
|
1,104.7 |
1,151.3 |
4.2% |
|
SEE |
119.4 |
111.4 |
-6.7% |
114.0 |
-2.3% |
|
|
314.5 |
326.8 |
3.9% |
|
E.MED |
73.0 |
68.0 |
-6.8% |
68.9 |
-1.3% |
|
|
174.0 |
182.5 |
4.9% |
|
EBITDA |
155.5 |
155.6 |
0.1% |
153.4 |
1.4% |
153 |
1.7% |
396.7 |
437.1 |
10.2% |
|
EBITDA margin |
23.4% |
23.5% |
7 |
23.3% |
21 |
22.9% |
61 |
19.6% |
22.0% |
242 |
|
Greece |
15.7 |
14.9 |
-5.1% |
14.7 |
1.4% |
|
|
52.0 |
45.8 |
-11.9% |
|
USA |
83.5 |
84.6 |
1.3% |
84.2 |
0.5% |
|
|
219.0 |
248.7 |
13.6% |
|
SEE |
47.6 |
45.5 |
-4.4% |
44.4 |
2.5% |
|
|
107.6 |
128.3 |
19.2% |
|
E.MED |
8.8 |
10.6 |
20.5% |
10.1 |
5.0% |
|
|
18.1 |
14.3 |
-21.0% |
|
Net income (adj.) |
86.7 |
75.9 |
-12.5% |
74.1 |
2.5% |
77.0 |
-1.4% |
197.6 |
237.8 |
20.3% |
Source: Optima, Titan Cement
Greece: Greece recorded another robust quarter, with both domestic consumption and Group volumes growing double digits, however, export sales in our Western Europe terminals slowed down, reflecting the decline in the construction sector in our European export markets. Consequently, 3Q24 sales rose by 3.7% y-o-y to 105.5m, resulting however in EBITDA of EUR 14.9m from EUR 15.7m a year ago.
US: Performance of TITAN US in Q3 recorded year-over-year growth and profitability marked a new rise, although operations were significantly affected by hurricanes and bad weather that persisted throughout most of the quarter. In this context, US sales advanced by 2.0% y-o-y to EUR 376.7m, while EBITDA rose by 1.3% y-o-y to EUR 84.6m, despite the increased one-off costs related to the US IPO.
SEE Europe: Regional demand experienced a slight slowdown in the third quarter, following a very strong performance in the first half of 2024 and a record-high third quarter in 2023. That said, Group turnover was down by 6.7% y-o-y to EUR 111.4m in 3Q24, while the cost efficiency improvements, resulted in segmental EBITDA of EUR 45.4m, down by 40.4% YoY.
EMED: In the Eastern Mediterranean region, the structural adjustments needed for a return to macroeconomic normalcy are impacting real economic activity in both countries. Against this backdrop, turnover rose by 6.8% y-o-y to EUR 68.0m, while EBITDA in 3Q24 was up by 20.5% y-o-y to EUR 10.6m.
Below the EBITDA line: Below EBITDA: Contribution from participations (mainly Brazil JV) in 9M24 was positive at EUR 0.8m from EUR 0.6m in 9M23, depreciation expenses stood at EUR 116.9m (+8.4% y-o-y), financial expenses (including FX impact) ended lower at EUR 28.8m (down by EUR 4.6m y-o-y), while the effective tax rate shaped at 20%. Operating Cash Flow posted seasonal quarterly inflows of EUR 186m, capex shaped at EUR 180.5m, while Group net debt closed at EUR 670m, up by EUR 10m y-t-d, at a comfortable 1.1x Net Debt/EBITDA leverage ratio.
Jumbo 9M24 sales update
Jumbo released a solid sales update for October 2024, despite the continuing disruption in the supply chain, the tension in the Middle East and the increased cost of transporting products, according to which Group sales were up by +6.0% y-o-y, driven by parent net sales (up by 8% y-o-y), Bulgaria (+6%), and followed by Romania (+4%) and Cyprus (+2%). Additionally, in 10M24, the Group’s sales recorded an overall increase of c. +7% YoY, with Greek sales up by 7% YoY, Romania sales also up by +11%, Bulgarian sales gained +8%, while Cypriot sales were marginally up by +1%. As a reminder, Jumbo has already reopened the stores in Karditsa and Larissa and the two additional hyper stores in Cyprus and Bucharest, Romania started its operations during October and will create an easier comparable in 4Q24e (which accounts for c. 40% of yearly revenues). That said, in our view, there is an upside risk for Jumbo’s latest guidance, which called for sales growth of +4% in FY24 and that organic profitability close to 2023 levels. Our estimates is for c. 10% y-o-y, sales growth and we believe that with the increased store network this will be feasible.
CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables signs turnkey contract for submarine interconnection of the Ionian islands
Cenergy Holdings announces that its cable segment, was awarded a turnkey contract by IPTO for the design, supply, and installation of 38km of 150kV XLPE underground and submarine cables, which will enhance the electrical interconnections between Kefalonia-Zakynthos and Lefkada-Kefalonia, the Ionian islands in Greece. This contract will be manufactured at the state-of-the-art submarine cables plant of Hellenic Cables, in Corinth and will be completed in 2026. Note that press reports indicate that the value of the contract is EUR 100m.
Calendar of Events
Macros
08/11/24 | CPI OCT (ELSTAT) & Industrial Production SEP (ELSTAT)
14/11/24 | Import Price Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
15/11/24 | Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises 3Q24 & SEP (ELSTAT)
20/11/24 | Current Account Balance SEP (BoG) & Turnover Index in Industry SEP (ELSTAT)
22/11/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
25/11/24 | MSCI Index rebalancing (Aft-mkt)
3Q/9M24 Results Release
08/11/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (08:00 GR Time)
11/11/24 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt)
12/11/24 | Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt)
13/11/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
14/11/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), Austriacard Holdings, Lavipharm
18/11/24 | Cenergy Holdings
20/11/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
21/11/24 | Ideal Holdings (Bef-mkt)
25/11/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
26/11/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
12/12/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
08/11/24 | Biokarpet (EGM)
15/11/24 | BriQ Properties (EGM), Intercontinental International REIC (EGM)
19/11/24 | Intrakat (EGM)
22/11/24 | ILYDA (EGM)
24/12/24 | MED (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
11/11/24 | Papoutsanis (interim dividend EUR 0.03)
02/12/24 | CNL Capital (interim dividend EUR 0.25)
23/12/24 | Motor Oil (interim dividend EUR 0.30)
Initiation of trading of new shares
13/11/24 | Attica Bank (from SCI)
Warrants – Attica Bank
08/11/24-28/11/24 | Exercise Period
04/12/24 | Commencement of trading of the warrant exercise shares
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Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr
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