Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday for a second session in a row, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by 0.19% at 1,422.51 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.38%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.02%, Banks Index: -0.21%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 134.8m, up from Friday’s EUR 95.1m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European stock markets.
Today’s Headlines
· Inbound travelers and travel receipts up in January (BoG)
· Hellenic Exchanges 4Q/FY23 results preview | A strong quarter points to a good year
· PPC completed as expected the acquisition of an 84MW wind park in Romania
· Goldman Sachs increased its stake in PPC
· GEK Terna declared as the provisional concessionaire of Chania-Irakleio segment of North Crete Motorway
· Mytilineos EGM today
· Titan Cement International financial calendar update
· Jumbo financial calendar
· Papoutsanis FY23 results out
· Motodynamics denied rumors of negotiations with the Petropoulos Group
Sector Headlines
Inbound travelers and travel receipts up in January (BoG)
According to the BoG, travel receipts in January 2024 rose by 27.2% y-o-y to EUR 278m. Additionally, the number of inbound travelers in January 2024 rose by 16.0% y-o-y to 737k, while the average spending per traveler stood at EUR 374, up by 9.7% y-o-y.
Company Headlines
Hellenic Exchanges || CP: EUR 5.41 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 6.40
4Q/FY23 results preview | A strong quarter points to a good year
Preview | Hellenic Exchanges is set to release 4Q23/FY2023 results today, post-market close. Management will host a conference call on Thursday 28 March at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. Dial-in numbers-GR: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 211 180 2000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632, Other: +44 (0) 203 059 5872.
4Q2023 KPIs | We anticipate strong top line growth on the back of robust average daily value of transactions in the cash market, which was shaped at EUR 123.4 (+110% y-o-y) due to the disposal of a 22.0% stake of HFSF in National Bank of Greece and higher market cap as well as various corporate actions (3 IPOs, 1 Corporate bond issue, 2 rights issues). Hence, we project quarterly revenues of EUR 12.3m (+43% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 4.2m (+233% y-o-y) and net profit of EUR 3.5m (+58% y-o-y).
2023 KPIs | We forecast revenues to reach EUR 46.7m (+23% y-o-y), broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 45.7m. In more detail, trading fees are estimated at EUR 8.8m (+50% y-o-y), post-trading revenues at EUR 20.4m (+35% y-o-y) and listing revenues at EUR 5.9m (+17% y-o-y). On the cost side, we have penciled in a 10% y-o-y increase to EUR 26.4m mainly due to higher personnel expenses (+24% y-o-y). We also expect EBITDA to shape at EUR 18.6m (+49% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate of EUR 18.8m and EBITDA margin to widen to 39.7% in 2023 from 33.0% in 2022. We anticipate net profit to land at EUR 13.1m (+60% y-o-y), 6% higher than consensus estimate of EUR 12.4m. Finally, we project a DPS of EUR 0.22 (+39% y-o-y), higher than consensus estimate of EUR 0.20.
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 2023e |
2022 |
YoY |
Consensus 2023e |
Optima vs Cons |
|
Sales |
46.7 |
37.8 |
23% |
45.7 |
2% |
|
EBITDA |
18.6 |
12.5 |
49% |
18.8 |
-1% |
|
mgn |
39.7% |
33.0% |
– |
41.1% |
– |
|
Net profit |
13.1 |
8.2 |
60% |
12.4 |
6% |
|
mgn |
28.1% |
21.7% |
– |
27.1% |
|
|
DPS |
0.22 |
0.16 |
39% |
0.20 |
9% |
|
(EUR m) |
Optima 4Q23e |
4Q22 |
YoY |
|
Sales |
12.3 |
8.6 |
43% |
|
EBITDA |
4.2 |
1.3 |
233% |
|
mgn |
34.4% |
14.8% |
– |
|
Net profit |
3.5 |
2.2 |
58% |
|
mgn |
28.3% |
25.6% |
– |
|
DPS |
– |
– |
– |
source: Company, Optima Bank estimates, Factset
PPC completed as expected the acquisition of an 84MW wind park in Romania
PPC completed as expected the acquisition of an 84MW wind park in Romania from European subsidiaries of Lukoil Group to acquire a 100% stake in Land Power. As a reminder, the wind park is located in Dorobantu and Topolog, Romania, the regions with the best wind conditions in Romania and generates more than 200GWh (implied wind factor >27%). It is also noted that PPC is strategically targeting its expansion in the Balkan countries, as beyond the recent acquisition of ENEL Romania the group has an ambitious expansion plan in the RES in Bulgaria.
Goldman Sachs increased its stake in PPC
Public Power Corporation announced that Goldman Sachs Group Inc increased its stake on 21 March to 19.665.708 common shares or 5.15% of the voting rights from 559.627 shares (0.15% of the voting rights) on 8 January.
GEK Terna declared as the provisional concessionaire of Chania-Irakleio segment of North Crete Motorway
The company announced that has been declared provisional concessionaire through an international competitive tender for the construction of Chania-Irakleio segment of North Crete Motorway. The concession period is for 35 years, out of which up to five years refer to the design-construction phase and the total length of the Chania-Irakleio segment stands at 187km.
Mytilineos EGM today
The company has an EGM scheduled today to approve the renewal of its buyback of up to 10% of the company’s share capital with a maximum price of EUR 50.00 (compared to EUR 40.00 previously) for the next 24 months.
Titan Cement International financial calendar update
The company will publish its integrated financial report on Thursday 28 March, the AGM will take place on Thursday 9 May and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June with the dividend payment set for Wednesday 3 July.
Jumbo financial calendar
The company will publish its FY23 results on Wednesday 17 April, the AGM will take place on Wednesday 22 May and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Wednesday 10 July with the dividend payment set for Tuesday 16 July.
Papoutsanis FY23 results out
The company announced its FY23 results with revenues came in at EUR 62.3m down by 12% y-o-y vs. EUR 70.7m in FY22 mainly affected by reduced international sales and the tough comparison in sales of the soap category due to the normalization of demand following the solid year of 2022. Adj. EBITDA increased by 28% y-o-y and reached EUR 9.2m vs. EUR 7.2m in FY22, aided by the implementation of the 3-year investment plan that reduced costs and increased profit margins, while net profit reached EUR 4.1m vs. EUR 3.0m in FY22 posting 36% y-o-y increase with net profit margin increased to 6.5% vs. 4.2% a year ago.
Motodynamics denied rumors of negotiations with the Petropoulos Group
The company announced in response to HCMC’s question that denies the press report which states that the Company is in negotiations for the acquisition of Petros Petropoulos Group.
Calendar of Events
Macros
27/03/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator MAR
28/03/24 | Building Activity DEC
29/03/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry FEB & Turnover Index in Retail Trade JAN
FY23 Results
27/03/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
28/03/24 | Trastor REIC, BriQ Properties
29/03/24 | Piraeus Port Authority
02/04/24 | DIMAND (Aft-mkt)
03/04/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
12/04/24 | Sunrise Mezz PLC, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC
17/04/24 | Jumbo (Aft-mkt), Lamda Development
23/04/24 | Alpha Trust Holding
25/04/24 | EYDAP
30/04/24 | Biokarpet
EGM / AGM
27/03/24 | Mytilineos (EGM)
08/04/24 | Bank of Greece (AGM)
10/04/24 | Petropoulos (AGM)
17/04/24 | Papoutsanis (AGM)
18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)
19/04/24 | BriQ Properties (AGM)
23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)
25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)
30/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
15/04/24 | Petropoulos
19/04/24 | Papoutsanis
22/04/24 | Autohellas (EUR 0.70)
29/04/24 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.60)
Ex-Capital Return
02/04/24 | Intercontinental International REIC (EUR 1.98)
25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)
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