Today’s Headlines
· Greek unemployment increased to 9.9% in July
· Greek ESI down in August
· MSCI Indices rebalancing today
· HELLENiQ ENERGY | 2Q24 results Review-in line, weak bottom line
· Motor Oil Conference call highlights
· BoG approved merger of Attica with Pancreta Bank, EGM on 03 September
· Aegean Airlines 1H24 results out on 11 September
· Intralot 1H24 results out today amc
· Ideal Holdings EGM on 19 September
· Fourlis plan for Foot Locker
· AustriaCard Holdings AG 1H24 results out
· Comer Group plant to enter in online gambling market
Market Comment
ATHEX headed north yesterday, reversing earlier losses, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose marginally by 0.11% at 1,426.91 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.09%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.24% Banks Index: -0.21%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 88.4m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 85.7m. MSCI rebalancing is taking place today, with Motor Oil in focus.
Macro Headlines
Greek unemployment increased to 9.9% in July
ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 9.9% in July 2024, higher than the downwards revised 9.5% in June 2024 and lower than 11.1% in July 2023. The number of unemployed persons amounted to 465,167, lower by -11.8% y-o-y and by 3.7% m-o-m.
Greek ESI down in August
Greece’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) eased to 106.3 in August 2024 from 106.8 in July, remaining well above the EU average ESI (up to 96.9 in August from 96.5 in July).
Market Headlines
MSCI Indices rebalancing today
The rebalancing of MSCI indices will take place today at the close. Motor Oil will exit the MSCI Standard Index and will be added to the MSCI Small Cap. As a reminder, nine companies are included in MSCI’s Standard Index, namely, METLEN, OTE, OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, National Bank and Piraeus Bank.
Company Headlines
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | Target Price EUR: 10.70 | CP: EUR 7.00
2Q24 results Review-in line, weak bottom line
Facts: HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 2Q24 “adjusted” group EBITDA up by 41% YoY to EUR 232m on driven by the strong refining environment (beating consensus and below our estimate), while “adjusted” net income shaped at EUR 73m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 26m in 2Q23, below our call and consensus due to negative contribution from associates. Accounting for inventory and one-off losses of EUR 50m in 2Q24 vs. inventory and one-off losses of EUR 43m in 2Q23, HELLENiQ ENERGY reported IFRS EBITDA of EUR 182m, up by 50% YoY and IFRS net profits of EUR 30m compared to net profits of EUR 7m in 2Q23. It is noted that reported net profits excluded the solidarity tax, which HE estimates at EUR 173m, for which the Company will take the relevant provision in 3Q24.
2Q/1H24 Group Key P&L Results
|
EUR m |
2Q23 |
2Q24 |
YoY |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
Consensus |
Actual vs. Consensus |
1H23 |
1H24 |
YoY |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
121 |
182 |
50% |
194 |
-6% |
400 |
532 |
33% |
||
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
164 |
232 |
41% |
244 |
-5% |
222 |
4.5% |
568 |
570 |
0% |
|
refining |
114 |
179 |
57% |
185 |
-3% |
481 |
468 |
-3% |
||
|
marketing |
28 |
32 |
13% |
30 |
7% |
45 |
48 |
7% |
||
|
petchems |
12 |
16 |
36% |
19 |
-16% |
27 |
39 |
47% |
||
|
RES/other |
9 |
5 |
-44% |
10 |
-50% |
16 |
15 |
-6% |
||
|
IFRS Net Income*, ** |
7 |
30 |
329% |
54 |
-44% |
162 |
209 |
+29% |
||
|
“Adjusted” Net Income* |
26 |
73 |
181% |
91 |
-20% |
80 |
-8.8% |
277 |
236 |
-15% |
Source: Optima Bank, the Company
* Consensus estimates are compiled based on the contribution from 10 brokerage firms
Domestic refining and trading division: HELLENiQ ENERGY’s realized blended margin (incl. propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems) in 2Q24 remained at healthy levels of USD 13.2/bbl from USD 17.7/bbl in 1Q24 and USD 10.9/bbl in 2Q23, well outperforming the USD 5.5/bbl benchmark margin, mainly on wider cracks. The refinery utilization rate in 2Q24 was 107% vs. 102% a year ago. Sales volume was consequently up by 1% YoY to 4.0m tons, driven by an 1.5% YoY rise in exports sales to 2,147 tons. All in, 2Q24 “adjusted” EBITDA remained at high levels of EUR 179m (vs. EUR 114 a year ago).
Marketing: Domestic demand in 2Q24 rose by 1.5% YoY driven by higher by 3% automotive demand. Jet fuel demand was also up by 17% YoY, while bunkering demand was down by 3% YoY. However, domestic EBITDA dropped to EUR 12m (from EUR 14m last year), burdened by the cap on retail margins which continue to weigh on profitability, while international marketing EBITDA was up by 14% YoY to EUR 21m.
Petrochemicals: Stronger y-o-y PP margins led to increased petchems contribution, with Adj. EBITDA up by 36% YoY at EUR 16m in 2Q24.
Power & gas (equity consolidation): Elpedison’s EBITDA contribution in 2Q24 was negative at EUR 4m from EUR 1m loss in 2Q23 on unfavorable market dynamics in gas trading and power operations, while DEPA contribution was also negative.
RES: segmental profitability in 2Q24 shaped at EUR 12 (from EUR 11m a year ago), driven by the expansion of installed capacity weaker to 384MW by 2Q24-end (from 356MW a year ago), despite the curtailments on production from the system operator.
FCF & Net debt: FCF in 1H24 was weaker y-o-y at EUR 217m from FCF of EUR 553m in 1H23 on increased working capital needs due to the disruption in trade flows in the Middle East, EUR 121m taxes and increased investing outflows of EUR 154m. After paying EUR 94m for dividends and EUR 65m for interest expenses, group net debt (excluding leasing liabilities) rose marginally by 30m y-t-d in 1H24 to EUR 1.59bn.
Conference call comments: a) FID for test drilling within the next six months, b) margins in 3Q24 are lower, expects to improve in the next months, c) RES capacity currently at 384MW, 620MW under development, expects to operate 1GW by 2025-end, d) RES performance in 2Q24 negatively affected by curtailments (cut down of production during peak hours from the system operator e) nothing to announce yet regarding the DEPA and ELPEDISON associates.
Motor Oil Conference call highlights
Key Highlights Include: a) refining margins healthy in July, tighter in August, refinery sales remain strong, b) cargo ship in Yemen delay expected to be resolved in the next days, c) expects next call option from Reeggenborgh regarding the ELLAKTOR shares to be exercised in December or January, six months after the first exercise last June, d) solidarity tax to be finalized in September, expects to be in the EUR 190m-205m range e) new CCGT (50%/50% with GEKTERNA) to be commissioned in October, and to commence commercial operation in 1Q25 f) average cost of debt down to 4.05% in June 2024 from 4.5% in 2023 end.
BoG approved merger of Attica with Pancreta Bank, EGM on 03 September
Bank of Greece approved yesterday the merger of Attica Bank with Pancreta Bank by absorption of the latter by the former. The merger is expected to be completed in early September 2024. Recall that the EGM will take place on Tuesday 03 September at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time, wherein shareholders will approve the merger of the two banks.
Aegean Airlines 1H24 results out on 11 September
The company is set to announce 1H24 results on Wednesday 11 September, after the closing of the market, while the conference call is scheduled for the next day at 15:00 Athens/13:00 London Time.
Intralot 1H24 results out today amc
The company announced that will report 1H24 results today, post market close. Management will host a conference call on Monday 02 September at 17:00 Athens/15:00 London Time.
Ideal Holdings EGM on 19 September
The company has called for an EGM on Thursday 19 September at 10:00 Athens/08:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve the increase of the share capital by capitalizing of EUR 81.6m of the share premium account as well as to authorize the BoD to increase the share capital of the company.
Fourlis plan for Foot Locker
Fourlis group estimates that the sportswear retail market in SE Europe is expected to reach EUR 3.7b by FY26. The Group expects to generate sales of c. EUR 30m by FY25 and reach sales of EUR 100m by FY27, while the revenue target for FY29 is EUR 250m. Fourlis is estimated to invest c. EUR 40m in CaPex to create a retail network of 80 stores, while long term target of 120 stores across the SE European Region. Finally, the group targets an EBITDA margin of 8-10% and expecting to strengthen its position as a leading player in the sports retail market.
AustriaCard Holdings AG 1H24 results out
AustriaCard Holdings AG announced its 1H24 results. In more detail, group sales reached EUR 192.0m vs. EUR 179.5m in 1H23, posting a y-o-y increase of c.7.0%. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 28.8m vs. EUR 25.9m in 1H23, up by 11.2% y-o-y, with EBITDA margin at 15%, while net income decreased by 6.2% y-o-y to EUR 11.2m vs. EUR 12m in 1H23. Net Debt increased by EUR 8.3m and reached EUR 103.3m vs. EUR 95m in FY23.
Comer Group plans to enter in online gambling market
According to Euro2day.gr, Comer Group the major shareholder of the Loutraki casino is expected to submit an application to HGC for an online gambling license (for fixed-odds games and casino games).
Calendar of Events
Macros
30/08/24 | Producer Price Index in Industry JUL & Turnover Index in Retail Trade JUN
02/09/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI AUG
06/09/24 | GDP 2Q:24 (provisional data)
06/09/24 | DBRS – Greek sovereign credit review
13/09/24 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
30/08/24 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)
2Q/1H24 Results Release
30/08/24 | Intralot (Aft-Mkt)
02/09/24 | Sarantis (Aft-Mkt)
03/09/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Trade Estates (Aft-mkt)
04/09/24 | QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
10/09/24 | Fourlis (Aft-mkt), Athens Airport (Aft-mkt)
11/09/24 | Aegean Airlines (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt)
12/09/24 | LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt), Alpha Trust Andromeda
17/09/24 | Noval Property
19/09/24 | Viohalco, Attica Bank, Alpha Real Estate, Lavipharm
20/09/24 | Premia Properties, Logismos
25/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (Bef-mkt), AS Company (Aft-mkt)
26/09/24 | EYDAP, INTERTECH
27/09/24 | Piraeus Port Authority, Alpha Trust Holdings, Alumil (Aft-mkt), Biokarpet, Ble Kedros, Sunrise Mezz Plc, Thessaloniki Water Supply (Aft-mkt), Orilina Properties, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC, Trastor REIC
30/09/24 | Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc, Space Hellas, Technical Olympic (Aft-mkt), Athens Medical Center, Interlife, Medicon, Pairis
EGM / AGM
03/09/24 | Attica Bank (EGM)
04/09/24 | ELVE (AGM), Moda Bagno (AGM), Revoil (EGM)
06/09/24 | Orilina Properties (AGM), Domiki Kritis (AGM)
10/09/24 | Epsilon Net (AGM), MED (AGM)
13/09/24 | Bank of Cyprus (EGM)
16/09/24 | Coca-Cola HBC AG (EGM)
17/09/24 | MED (EGM)
19/09/24 | Ideal Holdings (EGM)
Ex-Dividend
09/09/24 | ADMIE Holding (EUR 0.058)
12/09/24 | Evrofarma (EUR 0.05)
17/09/24 | Epsilon Net
Ex-Capital Return
12/09/24 | Unibios (EUR 0.02)
Research Department
Equity Research
Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected]
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