Market Comment
After a volatile session, ATHEX eroded morning gains and headed south yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.35% at 1,602.15 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.29%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.83%, Banks Index: +0.48%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 302.8m, down from Friday’s EUR 385.9m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European stock markets today, with Alpha Services and Holdings in the spotlight.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek unemployment further decreased to 8.7% in January
· IOBE’s headline ESI down in February
· Greek PMI down in February
· Optima Bank 4Q/FY2024 results out tomorrow before the opening of ATHEX
· Paulson & Co sold a 2.4% stake in Alpha Services and Holdings-Bloomberg
· Bank of Greece proposed DPS of EUR 0.6720
· CENERGY Holdings 4Q24e Preview: Another strong quarter, on track to meet the upper bound of company guidance; focus on 2025e targets; we expect EUR 0.16 DPS
· ElvalHalcor FY24 results out
· Bank of Cyprus Share Buyback
· Fourlis Group Financial Calendar 2025
Macro Headlines
Greek unemployment further decreased to 8.7% in January
ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 8.7% in January 2025, down from downwards, revised 9.3% in December 2024 and lower than 11.7% in January 2023. The number of unemployed persons amounted to 408,181, lower by 26.8% y-o-y and by 6.6% m-o-m.
IOBE’s headline ESI down in February
The Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) issued its monthly survey for February 2025, according to which the Economic Sentiment Index deteriorated to 106.9 units from 108.6 in the previous month, driven by the sharp drop in the construction (-11.3 bps m-o-m) and services sub-sector (-6.7 bps m-o-m), while expectations in Industry and Retail Trade improved by 1.9 and 4.6 bps m-o-m respectively. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to -42.0 units in February from -43.4 a month ago, reflecting the improved optimism of households for their financials.
Greek PMI down in February
Greek PMI posted 52.6 in February, down from 52.8 in January, signaling the modest improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector, albeit one that was the weakest for three months.
Company Headlines
Optima Bank 4Q/FY2024 results out tomorrow before the opening of ATHEX
Optima Bank is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2024 results tomorrow, before the opening of ATHEX. Management will host a CC on the same day at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Dial-in numbers: GR: +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & Intl: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US: +1 516 447 5632.
Paulson & Co sold a 2.4% stake in Alpha Services and Holdings-Bloomberg
According to Bloomberg, Paulson & Co proceeded yesterday with the placement of ca. 57.0m shares of Alpha Services and Holdings (2.4% stake) at EUR 1.915/share, a 3.3% discount to yesterday’s closing price. Recall that according to the latest official data, Paulson & Co holds a 13.62% stake in Piraeus Financial Holdings and a 9.99% stake in Athens Water. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector with a TP of EUR 2.55/share.
Bank of Greece proposed DPS of EUR 0.6720
Bank of Greece announced that net profit reached EUR 82.9m (-16% y-o-y) in 2024 and the General Council decided to propose to the General Meeting of shareholders the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.6720/share (flat y-o-y), implying a gross dividend yield of 4.6%.
CENERGY Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 8.95 | TP EUR 12.60
4Q24e Preview: Another strong quarter, on track to meet the upper bound of company guidance; focus on 2025e targets; we expect EUR 0.16 DPS
Cenergy Holdings is set to announce its 4Q/FY24e Results today amc, with a conference call scheduled for the following day. We expect another strong quarter, which will conclude another year with historically high profitability, driven by the acceleration of backlog execution on improved margins. In more detail, we see group sales up by 2.2% y-o-y at EUR 468m, driven by increased volumes in both segments (the Cables segment already operates at high utilization rates while the pipes segment is expected to have further stepped-up its operations), aided by the huge, accumulated backlog (Group backlog EUR 3.48bn on 30/09/2024). Turning to profitability, we see EBITDA adj. (i.e. excluding metal impact and one-offs) at EUR 67.8m, down by 1.4% y-o-y, while accounting for EUR 7.5m Depreciation, financial expenses of EUR 11m and 22% effective tax rate, we expect Net profits to shape at EUR 35.3m, up by 37.0% y-o-y. In FY24e terms, we expect sales of EUR 1,728.2m, up by 6.2%, EBITDA adj. at EUR 261.6m, also up by 22.4% and Net profits at EUR 135.6m, up by a strong 85.9% y-o-y, compared to EUR 73m a year ago. Finally, with respect to dividends, assuming a 25% payout ratio, we expect CENERGY to declare a EUR 0.16 DPS (DY: 1.8%), up by 100% y-o-y.
4Q/FY24e Group Key P&L Forecasts
|
EUR m |
4Q23 |
4Q24e |
Y-o-Y change |
FY23 |
FY24e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
458.1 |
468.0 |
2.2% |
1,627.7 |
1,728.2 |
6.2% |
|
EBITDA adj. |
68.8 |
67.8 |
-1.4% |
213.8 |
261.6 |
22.4% |
|
mgn |
15.0% |
14.5% |
-53 |
13.1% |
15.1% |
200 |
|
Net Profit |
25.8 |
35.3 |
37.0% |
73.0 |
135.6 |
85.9% |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
ElvalHalcor FY24 results out
ElvalHalcor reported FY24 revenues of EUR 3,438.5m, up 4.4% y-o-y, EBITDA of EUR 242.7m compared to EUR 176.4m in 2023 and net income after minorities of EUR 103.2m compared to EUR 28.5m in 2023. Adjusted for inventory, EBITDA stood at EUR 237.5m, down 0.8% y-o-y. Sales volume rose by 4.3% YoY, driven by the 7.3% y-o-y increase in the aluminium segment, which more than offset the 2.4% drop in copper volume sales. Group net debt (including leasing) stood at EUR 643.4m, down by EUR 170m y-o-y, supported by the solid operating cash inflows of EUR 263.1m, and the lower by EUR 26.9m investing outflows of EUR 68.1m. The company declared a EUR 0.09/share dividend for 2024 (DY: 4.2%, ex-date: 26 June), from EUR 0.04/share a year ago. Regarding outlook, ElvalHalcor after completed the significant investment programs that have increased production capacity, mainly in the Aluminium Segment, the Group has strengthened its position by establishing high levels of profitability against unfavourable circumstances. With regard to the imposition of tariffs in the USA, the Group is closely monitoring the developments and is adequately prepared to deal with the new conditions that will arise. The company will hold a conference call today.
Bank of Cyprus Share Buyback
Bank of Cyprus Holdings announced that between 24 February 2025 and 28 February 2025 it purchased 278,176 commons shares at an average price of EUR 5.3740/share on the CSE and on ATHEX. The shares purchased will be cancelled towards the end of the buyback programme.
Fourlis Group Financial Calendar 2025
Fourlis announced that it will report FY24 results on Tuesday 8 April 2025, the conference call is scheduled for the next day and the AGM will be held on Friday 20 June 2025, while dividend ex-date set for Friday 27 June 2025.
Calendar of Events
Macros
07/03/25 | 4Q:24 GDP (provisional data) & 2024 GDP (estimates) (ELSTAT)
07/03/25 | DBRS – Greece Sovereign Rating review
10/03/25 | CPI & Harmonized CPI FEB, Industrial Production Index JAN & Trade Balance JAN (ELSTAT)
14/03/25 | Moody’s – Greek sovereign credit review
4Q/FY24 Results Release
05/03/25 | Cenergy Holdings
06/03/25 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt), Viohalco
10/03/25 | Attica Bank (Aft-mkt)
12/03/25 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt), Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
26/03/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt), LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
27/03/25 | Titan Cement International
31/03/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt), AUSTRIACARD Holdings (Aft-mkt)
02/04/25 | Trade Estates
08/04/25 | Fourlis Holdings
09/04/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc
10/04/25 | Orilina Properties
25/04/25 | Biokarpet
28/04/25 | Alumil
30/04/25 | Motodynamics
EGM / AGM
06/03/25 | EVROPI Holdings (EGM)
19/03/25 | Jumbo (EGM)
08/04/25 | Bank of Greece (AGM)
14/04/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), Athens Airport (AGM)
28/04/25 | Sarantis (AGM)
29/04/25 | Optima bank (AGM), OPAP (AGM)
30/04/25 | Eurobank (AGM)
08/05/25 | Titan Cement (AGM)
16/05/25 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
27/05/25 | Cenergy Holdings (AGM), Viohalco (AGM)
30/05/25 | National Bank of Greece (AGM)
03/06/25 | METLEN (AGM)
05/06/25 | OTE (AGM), IDEAL Holdings (AGM)
06/06/25 | Premia Properties (AGM)
12/06/25 | Motodynamics (AGM)
18/06/25 | Biokarpet (AGM)
19/06/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM)
20/06/25 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc (AGM)
24/06/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings (AGM)
25/06/25 | PPC (AGM)
25/07/25 | Alpha Services & Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
24/03/25 | Jumbo (extraordinary cash distribution EUR 0.4724)
23/04/25 | Athens Airport (EUR 0.78)
02/05/25 | Sarantis
07/05/25 | OPAP
12/06/25 | Premia Properties
01/07/25 | AUSTRIACARD Holdings
02/07/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (EUR 0.55)
03/07/25 | OTE (EUR 0.7216)
21/07/25 | PPC
Ex-Capital Return
07/03/25 | IDEAL Holdings (EUR 0.10/share)
24/03/25 | ELLAKTOR (EUR 0.85/share)
|
Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr |
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