Greek Market Watch: Βudget execution, Industrial Turnover index, Banks (HFSF, housing loans), NBG, ADMIE, Aegean Airlines, Revoil, Alpha Trust Andromeda, Petropoulos
Market Comment
ATHEX rebounded yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.02% at 1,417.72 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +1.12%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.32%, Banks Index: +2.06%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 139.2m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 181.0m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today.
Today’s Headlines
· Central government budget execution February 2024 (preliminary)
· Industrial Turnover index up by 3.2% in January (ELSTAT)
· Finance Minister | HFSF to dispose its stakes in banks by year end
· Bank of Greece to impose new limits on housing loans from 01 January 2025
· National Bank of Greece issued new Tier II bond
· ADMIE’s 10-years plan
· Aegean Airlines block of 3m shares
· Revoil granded 20 years licence for electricity supply
· Alpha Trust Andromeda 2023 results
· Petropoulos AGM set for 10 April
Macro Headlines
Central government budget execution February 2024 (preliminary)
Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in February 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 1,460m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 101m (based on the 2024 Budget introductory report) and a EUR 2,308m surplus in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 3,401m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 1,981m and a EUR 4,215 surplus in the same period in 2023.
Comment: In more detail, state budget net revenues in January-February 2024 period shaped at EUR 12,671m, showing an outperformance by EUR 1,593 or 14.4% vs. target. This outperformance was mainly driven by a) the increased tax revenues of EUR 565m, after deducting tax refunds, b) the increased PIB revenues of EUR 732m and c) the collection of EUR 159m from Recovery and Resilience Facility, which was projected to be collected in March 2024. Revenues from taxes stood at EUR 11,401m, beating the target by EUR 950m, mainly due to better performance of the previous year’s taxes collected in installments until the end of February 2024 (income tax of natural and legal persons, ENFIA) as well as the better performance in the collection of the current year’s taxes (VAT, Excise taxes, etc.). On the expenditures front, primary budget expenditures shaped at EUR 11,211m up by EUR 234m above the target.
Industrial Turnover index up by 3.2% in January (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 3.2% y-o-y in January 2024 compared to an increase of 19.8% y-o-y in January 2023 while decreased by 6.5% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the February 2023-January 2024 period dropped by 5.0% y-o-y compared to a 31.9% y-o-y rise in the respective February 2022-January 2023 period.
Sector Headlines
Finance Minister | HFSF to dispose its stakes in banks by year end
The Finance Minister stated on Reuters that HFSF will complete the disposal of its stakes in Greek banks by year end. Recall that HFSF controls a 18.39% stake in National Bank of Greece and a 72.5% stake in Attica Bank.
Bank of Greece to impose new limits on housing loans from 01 January 2025
Reportedly (naftemporiki), Bank of Greece decided to impose new limits from 01 January 2025 on housing loans and in specific the maximum LTV is set at 90% for new buyers and the maximum debt service to income at 50%.
Company Headlines
National Bank of Greece issued new Tier II bond
National Bank of Greece issued EUR 500m Subordinated Tier II bonds (MREL eligible) with a yield of 5.875% vs. 8.25% in the previous one issued back in 2019. The bond matures in 11.25 years and is callable in 6.25 years. The transaction attracted interest in excess of EUR 1.8bn from more than 140 investors and was oversubscribed 3.6x. We remain positive on the stock with TP of EUR 9.20/share, implying a 23% upside potential.
ADMIE’s 10-years plan
The interconnection of the Aegean islands with the mainland system is an important priority in the 10-year program of ADMIE, which was put to consultation yesterday. The existing RES installation coupled with the projects that secured final connection, amounts to 28GW. This already exceeds the National Plan 2030 and reaches the target of 23.5W of RES capacity in electricity generation.
Aegean Airlines block of 3m shares
According to press reports, the block of 3m shares that was traded at EUR 12.00/sh on Tuesday 19 March was made by the company’s shareholders Panos and Thanasis Laskaridis. Following the transaction, Aegean Airlines Vice Chairman Panos Laskaridis holds 12% of the company while Thanasis Laskaridis’ stake has fallen to 5.2%.
Revoil granded 20 years licence for electricity supply
Revoil announced that RAEWW approved a licence for a supply of electricity with a capacity of 100MW and a duration of 20 years. With this acquisition, REVOIL expands its capabilities in the objective of green transition through its involvement in the field of Renewable Energy Sources. We remind that Revoil operated a photovoltaic park in Evia with a capacity of 1.1Mw, another 13.3Mw are ready to be connected in Arcadia and Thiva and an additional capacity of 12Mw is under construction with a target to operate in 2025.
Alpha Trust Andromeda 2023 results
Net profit came in at EUR 6.40m in 2023 against a net loss of EUR 1.13m in 2022. NAV stood at EUR 29.95m or EUR 8.37/share. The stock is trading at 15% discount to its NAV. Management will propose to the AGM the distribution of a EUR 0.30 dividend per share (DY: 4.2%).
Petropoulos AGM set for 10 April
The company announced that it will hold its Annual General Meeting on Wednesday 10 April and will discuss among others the dividend distribution for FY23.
Calendar of Events
Macros
22/03/24 | Current Account Balance JAN
27/03/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator MAR
FY23 Results
21/03/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net (Bef-mkt)
27/03/24 | Hellenic Exchanges
28/03/24 | Trastor REIC
29/03/24 | Piraeus Port Authority
03/04/24 | Motor Oil (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (Aft-mkt)
09/04/24 | PPC (Aft-mkt), Fourlis (Aft-mkt)
12/04/24 | Sunrise Mezz PLC, Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC
17/04/24 | Lamda Development
23/04/24 | Alpha Trust Holding
25/04/24 | EYDAP
30/04/24 | Biokarpet
EGM / AGM
27/03/24 | Mytilineos (EGM)
08/04/24 | Bank of Greece (AGM)
10/04/24 | Petropoulos (AGM)
18/04/24 | Autohellas (AGM)
23/04/24 | Sarantis (AGM)
25/04/24 | OPAP (AGM)
30/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
15/04/24 | Petropoulos
29/04/24 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.60)
20/05/24 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.75)
Ex-Capital Return
26/03/24 | Alpha Real Estate Services (EUR 2.20)
02/04/24 | Intercontinental International REIC (EUR 1.98)
25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)
Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: research@optimabank. |

