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Market Comment Banks Index decline of 2% following eight straight days of advance pointed to extensive profit taking at AthEx on Wednesday and led the market’s benchmark to notable losses, while turnover remained at a relatively high level. Profit takings accelerated in the second half of the session following also losses recorded on several other Eurozone bourses. General index closed at 1,419.51 points, shedding 0.80% from Tuesday’s 1,430.91 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index contracted 0.96%, ending at 3,450.43 points. The banks index declined 2.02%, as National slumped 3.37%, Eurobank fell 1.67%. Piraeus gave up 1.61% and Alpha parted with 0.93%. Athens Airport conceded 2.01%, Motor Oil lost 1.46% and Viohalco was down 1.30%, while Titan Cement advanced 1.49%. In total 41 stocks obtained gains, 68 reported losses and 52 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €143.5m, down from Tuesday’s €147.7 m. We expect the market to focus on recent Q3:24 announcements which could provide some floor for selective interest. Therefore, we see consolidation as the most probable scenario for the day. ¢ In the Spotlight AustriaCard: 9M:24 results out on November 14 after market close. CC to follow next day. CC HBC: The bottler will tap markets regarding the issue of a new 8-year bond loan that will be listed on the London Stock Exchange. Cenergy Holdings: The company announced the completion of the expansion of the production capacity of its Hellenic Cables subsidiary factory in Korinthos. PPC (9M:24 review): PPC showed a resilient performance in Q3:24, despite the volatility in the energy market, taking advantage of its vertically integrated operation. Quarterly revenues amounted to €2.56 billion (+32% y-o-y) and EBITDA to €421m (+21% y-o-y), a performance in line with what the market expected. Management reiterated guidance for recurring EBITDA of €1.8bn this year and adjusted net income after minorities of €350m. Net debt of €4.59bn and a net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.7x. The new business plan will be presented today via webcast. In more details: § In generation, the average market share of PPC in Greece decreased to 35% in 9M:24 from 39% in 9M 2023. This is actually driven by lower lignite production as PPC is progressing with its plan to become coal free until 2026. In Romania, the average market share of PPC in generation from RES (wind/solar) reached 12%, from 14% in 9M:23. § The improvement of the generation mix is reflected on the improvement of CO2 emission intensity to 0.48 tons per generated MWh from 0.53 tons per generated MWh in 9M:23. § On the cost side energy purchases post a significant decrease of 16.4% y-o-y followed by provisions (-13.8%). On the flip side extensice CapEx increased depreciation at €219.6m up 47.3% y-o-y while financial expenses also hiked by 30% at €60.6m. § Bottom line comparison is unfavorable due to the positive extraordinary one off €141.6mn that was recorded in the 9M:23 period (one off gain related to PPC’s lignite fields valuation). Adjusted Net Income after minorities stood at €241m from €144m respectively. Note however that on a reported basis PPC posted losses in Q3:24 of €2.9m. § Total investments reached €1.6bn, including Romania, with a significant increase recorded in Distribution and RES activities in line with the plan of PPC to increase clean energy participation in its electricity generation mix and to further enhance and digitalize distribution networks. Investments in Renewables, flexible electricity generation, Distribution and digitalization rose to €1.3 bn, representing approximately 80% of total investments, including the contribution from Romania. § Installed capacity in RES stood at 4.9GW at the end of September 2024 from 3.8GW in September 2023. In the coming quarters RES installed capacity is expected to increase significantly due to a pipeline of 3.8 GW projects already in the Under construction or Ready to build stage or in tender stage. § Lignite output declined by approximately 30% in 9M:24 vs 9M 2023 standing at 2.3TWh, representing 15% of PPC’s output. As a result, CO 2 (Scope 1) emission intensity declined by 10.5% compared to 9M:23. § On the flip side, RES generation increased by 44% in 9M:24 compared to 9M 2023 standing at 4.8TWh, representing 31% of PPC’s total generation.. Overall we see Q3:24 results as another transitional set to the path of a reaching the goals set for RES capacity and EBITDA generation from green sources. Focus now shifts to the updated business plan which reportedly points to another €3bn CapEx for 2025-2027. The following table summarise results vs. consensus estimates:
PPC Strategic Plan 2025-2027, Thursday, November 14, 2024 at 14:00 GR-time § PPC investors day link: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=A7ltYEPe ΗΤΟ (9Μ/Q3:24 preview): OTE is scheduled to release its 3Q and 9M 2024 results tomorrow, prior to the market opening. Management will host a conference call at 13:00 Athens/ 11:00 London Time. Consensus expects a relatively soft quarter, primarily due to an additional tax charge in Romania, which is expected to weigh on overall financial performance. On a quarterly basis we expect the group to continue its positive operating trends from Q2:24, driven by strong growth in ICT and mobile service revenues, an ongoing expansion in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) subscribers, and a solid increase in postpaid mobile customers through migration from prepaid. Group revenues should reach €905.5 million (+2.8% y-o-y), with reported EBITDA of €373.3m (-2.2% y-o-y). Net profit for the quarter is forecasted at €145.7 million (-2.8% y-o-y), impacted by an additional tax charge of €33.5 million in Romania. Note that OTE announced on October 31 that it has entered into negotiations for the sale of Telekom Romania Mobile to Digi Romania and Vodafone Romania. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed, and the parties are in the process of filing for approval with the relevant Romanian authorities. Under the terms of the MoU, Digi will acquire certain assets of Telekom Romania Mobile, while the remaining assets and the company itself will be acquired by Vodafone Romania. In the conference call we will be looking for additional comments regarding the transaction and management statements with regards to outlook for the remainder of the year. The following table summarise consensus estimates:
Conference call details: Thursday Nov. 14, 13:00 GR-Time. § GR 30 210 94 60 800 § UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872 § US +1 516 447 5632 § WEB https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/otegroup241114.html
Lamda Development (9M:24 results): Adjusted EBITDA excluding revaluation gains and one offs at €85.7mn, +143% vs €35.3mn in 9M:23. Mall’s revaluation gains €7.2mn. Malls’ EBITDA +3% to €59.6mn vs €57.7mn in 9M:23. The Hellinikon EBITDA at €30.8mn from losses €19.7mn in 9M:23. Marina’s EBITDA at €15.8mn vs €13.9mn in 9M:23, +14% y-o-y. Net Debt at €506mn vs €656mn in FY;23. Gross cash €633mn, Gross debt €1.14bn. GAV €3.465bn with NAV at €1.387bn (€7.85/share). Pro forma NAV €8.69/share. Total 2024 revenues from the Hellinikon sales at €488mn and €967mn since launch.
Conference call to follow today at 18:00 GR-Time. Conference Call details: § GR 30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 7000 § UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063 § UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872 § US +1 516 447 5632 § WEB https://87399.themediaframe.eu/links/lamdadevelopment9M24.html
Autohellas (9M:24 results): Mixed 9M:24 performance with sales down by 1.8% impacted by lower yoy car sales. Albeit higher EBITDA and Net income by 2.6% and 5.5% respectively. In more details: § 9M:23 sales came in lower by 1.8% to €749.1mn compared to €762.474mn a year earlier. Car leasing up 6.9% to €221.7mn with boost from long term leasing and mild growth in the car rental segment on strong utilization rate. International leasing activities up 4.2% to €141.6mn with Portugal still lagging on the EBITDA level. Car sales down 8% yoy to €385.88mn vs €419.271mn in 9M:23 owing to to the lack of accumulated unfulfilled orders (due to insufficient production) from previous years as was the case in 9M:23 Italian Motion contribution to car sales at €116.4mn, yet not included in the consolidated sales figure as it is consolidated using the equity method. § EBITDA accelerated 4.7% with EBITDA margin gathering pace at 29.3% vs 28.1%. EBITDA landed at €219.74mn vs €214.178mn in 9M:23. § Net income came in 5.5% higher y-o-y to €72.039mn compared to €68.255mn. Note that both EBITDA and Net income include €9mn dividends received in the course of 2024, ie €8mn from AEGEAN and €1mn from Trade Estates. § Overall results confirm our FY projections calling for sales of €943.53mn (-5.9%), EBITDA at €279.55mn (+2.5%) and net income at €81.4mn, +5.4%. § FY:24 PE 6.5x, EV/EBITDA 3.9x, Net Debt/EBITDA at 2x, DY 6.5% with CF Yield at 42.4% making Autohellas a convincing recovery paly and safe exposure to play the Greek Tourism theme.
Helleniq Energy (9M/Q3:24 preview): Helleniq Energy will announce Q3:24 results today after the close of the market followed by a conference call at 18.00GR-Time. Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, consensus expects “adjusted” EBITDA of €165m (-60% y-o-y) and “adjusted” net profits of €39m from EUR €218m in Q323. Q3:24 results will account for €175m provision for the solidarity tax which are expected to turn negative bottom line in the quarter. Conference call details: Thursday Nov. 14, 18:00 GR-Time. § GR 30 210 94 60 800 § UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872 § US +1 516 447 5632 § WEB https://87399.choruscall.eu/links/helleniqenergy241114.html ¢ Web Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Euro2day, Capital, Liberal, Newmoney, Kathimerini, Energypress, Naftermporiki, Athens Macedonian News Agency , Oikonomikos Tahidromos, Mononews, Business Daily, Morning View, Economistas, Power Game, Insider, Bankingnews, Economico, AthEx. |
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