Motor Oil (FY:23 results review): Motor Oil announced another strong quarter across the board. This time all segments made a beat with Q4:24 EBITDA reaching to €340m more than 10% over consensus. The beat was driven by marketing and a strong performance in RES.
- Note also that in Q4:22 the Group included the full amount of the €358m provision of the solidarity tax. On a reported level inventory losses and other one-offs reached €115m while on a full year basis inventory losses stood at €94m vs. €64m inventory gains.
On a full year basis turnover in 2023 reached €13.3bn, down by 19.93% from 2022, when the figure reached €16.6bn. The lower turnover is attributed to a decrease in the volume of sales by 3.54%, in tandem with a lower average price for oil prices (as expressed in US dollars) by 18.37% and compared with prices in 2022. A stronger euro vis-à-vis the dollar, by 2.62%, is also cited. The greater portion of the parent company’s sales are conducted with the US dollar. Adjusted EBITDA came at €1.48bn down 9% y-o-y while adj. net income came in at €881m just 4% y-o-y in a FY with extensive maintenance.
More impressively Motor Oil will propose another 1.4 eur/share final dividend. Not that an interim dividend of €44.3m, based on 2023 results, has already been distributed (0.40 euros per share) last December. The 1.8 eur/share (FY:22 was 1.6 eur/share) is a record level cash payment to shareholders (€199m) in the history of the group.
Net debt down at €1.5bn vs. €1.76bn at end FY:22 as the group generated €0.5bn of FCF in FY:23. No significant debt maturities for 2024-2025, this would allow a smooth execution of the 5-year expansion plan.
CapEx in 2024 at €340m of which 210 are related to parent level.
Motor oil trades at a historical multiple of 3.7x PE and 3.3x EV/EBITDA while dividend yield based on yesterday’s close is 6.66%. We believe that the market apply particular low multiples expecting refining environment to normalize in the pre-Ukrainian crisis level. Still Motor Oil is a different company vs. 2022 with new Naftha unit to add €100 – 130m EBITDA in refining, 839MW of RES in operation which contribute no less than €130 -140m EBITDA p.a. and a market share of 5.7% in retail in domestic electricity market. In our view the new “normal” for Motor Oil EBITDA is somewhere around €750-850m which point to a normalize EV/EBITDA of 5.5x. In the conference call we expect focus on dividend payouts, refinery outlook, CapEx for 2024 and RES new capacity expansion plans after the completion of Anemos buyout.
The following table summarise results vs consensus estimates:
|
Motor oil |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
2023 (E) |
Vs |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
2023 (E) |
Vs |
|
EUR mn. |
FY |
FY |
(%) |
FY |
Estimate |
Q4 |
Q4 |
(%) |
Q4 |
Estimate |
|
Volumes (MTx1000) |
14,155.0 |
13,031.0 |
-7.9% |
13,339 |
|
3,767 |
3,392 |
-10.0% |
3,700 |
|
|
Sales |
16,630.0 |
13,317.0 |
-19.9% |
13,109 |
|
3,964.0 |
3,348.0 |
-15.5% |
3,140 |
|
|
EBITDA |
1,692.0 |
1,383.0 |
-18.3% |
1,366 |
1.2% |
301.0 |
225.0 |
-25.2% |
208 |
8.2% |
|
Adjusted EBITDA |
1,628.0 |
1,477.0 |
-9.3% |
1,445 |
2.2% |
379.0 |
340.0 |
-10.3% |
308 |
10.4% |
|
of Which Refining |
1,361.0 |
1,185.0 |
-12.9% |
1,189 |
|
262.0 |
249.0 |
-5.0% |
253 |
|
|
of which Fuel Marketing |
128.0 |
124.0 |
-3.1% |
107 |
|
17.0 |
33.0 |
94.1% |
16 |
|
|
of Which Power & Gas |
137.0 |
170.0 |
24.1% |
153.0 |
|
74.0 |
52.0 |
-29.7% |
35.0 |
|
|
Other & Eliiminations |
7.0 |
-1.0 |
-114.3% |
-3.0 |
|
7.0 |
6.0 |
-14.3% |
4.0 |
|
|
Net Income |
968.0 |
805.0 |
-16.8% |
815 |
-1.2% |
7.0 |
88.0 |
1157.1% |
98 |
-9.7% |
|
Adjusted Net Income |
917.0 |
881.0 |
-3.9% |
867 |
1.6% |
-39.0 |
178.0 |
556.4% |
164 |
8.5% |
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