Motor Oil – Προεπισκόπηση: Aλλο ένα εξαιρετικά δυνατό τρίμηνο (1Q23e) ακολουθεί μια ιστορικά ισχυρή χρονιά (2022)

MOH: BUY – CP: 22.84 & Target Price: EUR 28.90

1Q23e results preview | Another exceptionally strong quarter follows a historically strong year

Facts: MOH is scheduled to release its 1Q23e tomorrow, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call on the next day at 17:30 local time (15:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 423m (+124% y-o-y) and “adjusted” net income of EUR 265m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 97m in 1Q22.

Accounting for the expected inventory losses of EUR 70m versus gains of EUR 129m in 1Q22, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 353 (+11% y-o-y) and IFRS net profits of EUR 210m vs. profits of EUR 197m last year. With respect to dividends, recall that MOH declared a final DPS of EUR 1.20, (ex-date set on 26/6, DY: 5.4%), raising total distributions for the fiscal year to EUR 1.6/share.

1Q23e P&L Results

Source: Optima bank research, MOH. *Adjusted figures exclude inventory impact

Refining: MOH’s “clean” refining margin is expected to remain close to the high levels recorded in 4Q22, as the extremely favorable refining environment due to the supply/demand dynamics on end products (mainly diesel) persisted in 1Q23 (a trend which has largely normalized so far in 2Q23e, remaining however above mid-cycle levels), while the headwinds from the elevated feedstock costs (particularly natural gas) have to some extent eased during the quarter.

• More specifically, we calculate MOH’s “clean” blended margin to have settled at USD 18.7/bbl from USD 20.2/bbl in 4Q22 and USD 11.6/bbl in 1Q22, well above the 9-year average of c. USD 6.8/bbl. Currency movements indicate a stronger USD from the previous quarter (average EUR/USD rate at 1.08 in 1Q23 vs. 1.17 in 1Q22 and 1.02 in 4Q22). In terms of refinery operations, we expect high refinery utilization rate to generate sales volume at 3.3m, flattish YoY (as no maintenance works took place in this quarter and also in 1Q22).

Finally, assuming increased opex driven by higher energy and CO2 emission costs, we expect refining division “adjusted” EBITDA to jump to EUR 365m compared to EUR 262m in 4Q22 and EUR 148m in 1Q22. The further drop in oil prices is estimated to have generated inventory losses gains of EUR 70m during the quarter.

Marketing: The mild weather conditions and the cap on gross profit margins in the retail network in Greece suggest a weaker y-o-y EBITDA for MOH’s marketing division which we see at EUR 18m.

Power & Gas & other: As the new market model in the retail electricity market during 1Q23 is expected offered significant premia to the electricity suppliers, we estimate MOH’s electricity retail subsidiary (NRG) EBITDA contribution at EUR 15m. With regards to RES, we expect the installed capacity of 772MW by FY22-end (including Anemos) to have generated EBITDA of EUR 35m.

Conclusion: We expect that the extremely favorable refining environment in FY22, to have largely persisted in 1Q223, taking also into consideration the tight refining capacity in Europe (especially for Diesel) and also the expected commencement of the new Naphtha plant in November 2022. That said, and as we expect that MOH is set to announce a strong set of results for 1Q23e, in line with our updated EBITDA estimates for the year, we reiterate our ‘Buy’ recommendation.

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