Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday for a third consecutive session, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.64% to 2,259.13 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.80%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.28%, Banks Index: -3.32%) and the traded value was shaped at €403.2m, up from Friday’s €238.4m. We expect the ATHEX to rebound today following the recent correction.
Today’s Headlines
· Greek energy companies expand partnerships with US LNG suppliers (press)
· Piraeus Bank 4Q25 Preview: FY25 targets achieved, Capital Markets Day to reignite the story
· HELLENiQ ENERGY 4Q25e preview | Strong quarter, driven by the refinery; positive outlook for 2026e; we expect €0.40 final DPS
· OTE 4Q/FY25 Preview – Results out tomorrow before market
· METLEN expands its UK footprint with a 198 MW hybrid solar and storage project
· S&P affirms BB+ rating on METLEN despite the weak performance in 2025
· GEKTERNA and UKRHYDROENERGO proceed with their partnership (press)
· Gaming branch hive-down completed; new subsidiary formed and parent renamed OPAP Holdings
· OPAP – Share capital reduction following cancellation of 11.46m treasury shares
· Eurobank share buyback
· ELLAKTOR announces Completion of the Sale of Cambas Properties
Sector Headlines
Greek energy companies expand partnerships with US LNG suppliers (press)
According to press reports, AKTOR Group and METLEN signed MoUs with US companies for the supply of LNG through the vertical corridor. In more detail, during a special event held by the white house and the National Energy Dominance Council, the AKTOR Group-DEPA Commercial Joint Venture (ATLANTIC Group) signed four MoUs for the supply of LNG to Ukraine, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Bulgaria, while METLEN signed an MoU with Shell for the supply of 0.5-1billion Cubic meter per annum starting from 2027. Additionally, according to press reports, PPC’s chairman and CEO Mr Stassis has also meetings with US officials in the country to establish additional partnerships for the supply of LNG and also the development of data centers.
Company Headlines
Piraeus Bank || Buy | Target Price: €9.66 | CP: €7.8120
4Q25 Preview: FY25 targets achieved, Capital Markets Day to reignite the story
4Q25 results preview | Piraeus Bank is scheduled to report 4Q25 results on Thursday 26 February before the opening of the ATHEX. Management will host a conference call the same day at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London. The key catalyst for the stock remains the Capital Markets Day on 5 March 2026 in London, where the management will unveil the 2026-2029 Business Plan, including the strategic roadmap for Ethniki Insurance. For Q4 we anticipate solid core revenue, with NII stable confirming the bottom-out seen in 3Q and fee income recording a strong quarter-end finish. On the cost side, we expect operating expenses to be elevated, driven by one-offs (VES, Ethniki Insurance integration, variable remuneration), while the launch of Snappi is beginning to contribute to the underlying cost base. Impairment is expected to remain controlled, with the bank tactically using post model adjustments to clean up residual step-up and CHF exposures. Overall, for FY25 we expect EPS of €0.81 and normalized RoTBV at 15%, fully in line with guidance.
4Q25 results | In more detail, we estimate NII to shape at €475m (+1% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y), aligned with median consensus. We also forecast fee income to reach €180m (+10% q-o-q, +8% y-o-y), supported by lending and investment banking fees (including the Egnatia transaction). We also expect non-core revenues at €13m. Overall, we estimate total revenue to reach €668m (+3% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y). On costs, we estimate OpEx at €253m (+20% q-o-q), including €13m VES charges, as well as Ethniki Insurance integration and variable compensation costs. This implies PPI at €415m (-5% q-o-q, -11% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to shape at €59m (-13% q-o-q, -54% y-o-y), driven by utilization of PMAs. Overall, we project that reported net profit will reach €252m (-3.2% q-o-q, +38% y-o-y) in 4Q25, slightly ahead of the median consensus of €247m.
FY25 results | On a yearly basis, we expect NII to shape at €1.9bn (-9% y-o-y) supported by strong loan growth (+€3.5bn) and fee income at €669m (+3% y-o-y). We also expect OpEx to rise by 3% y-o-y, incorporating Snappi and variable remuneration, while impairment losses are seen down by -9% y-o-y. Overall, we project reported net profit at €1.07bn (+0.6% y-o-y), despite one-off costs, resulting to a normalized EPS adjusted for AT1 at €0.81, consistent with bank’s guidance.
Optima view | Piraeus is set to close FY25 delivering its financial targets, generating over €1bn in reported profit despite the low-rate environment. 4Q25 confirms that NII has bottomed out, while fee income strength is structural. Ethniki Insurance contributed only for one month in 2025, representing a significant earnings and strategic uplift in 2026-2029. Investors focus now shifts to the Business Plan with particular emphasis on the loan growth strategy and the incremental net income contribution from Ethniki Insurance. Valuation remains attractive with the stock trading at 8.8x P/E 2026e and 1.2x P/TBV 2026e, 14% and 23% discount to European banks respectively. Finally, we expect the 50% payout ratio to be sustained, offering compelling capital returns.
Table 1 | Quarterly P&L forecasts
|
(€ m) |
Optima 4Q25e |
3Q25 |
QoQ |
4Q24 |
YoY |
|
Consensus 4Q25e |
QoQ |
Optima vs Cons |
||
|
Net interest income |
475 |
471 |
1% |
514 |
-8% |
|
475 |
1% |
0% |
|
|
|
Fee & rental income |
180 |
164 |
10% |
167 |
8% |
|
180 |
10% |
0% |
|
|
|
Core income |
655 |
635 |
3% |
681 |
-4% |
|
655 |
3% |
0% |
|
|
|
Trading & other income |
13 |
13 |
-3% |
49 |
-74% |
|
15 |
12% |
-13% |
|
|
|
Total revenues |
668 |
648 |
3% |
730 |
-8% |
|
670 |
3% |
0% |
|
|
|
Operating expenses |
-253 |
-211 |
20% |
-264 |
-4% |
|
-253 |
20% |
0% |
|
|
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
415 |
437 |
-5% |
466 |
-11% |
|
416 |
-5% |
0% |
|
|
|
Loan provisions |
-59 |
-68 |
-13% |
-127 |
-54% |
|
-65 |
-4% |
-9% |
|
|
|
Other |
-15 |
-19 |
-20% |
-113 |
-87% |
|
-13 |
-31% |
15% |
|
|
|
Reported Net Profit |
252 |
261 |
-3% |
183 |
38% |
|
247 |
-5% |
2% |
|
|
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company Median consensus estimate
Table 2 | Annual P&L forecasts Table 3 | Financial KPIs
|
(€ m) |
Optima 2025e |
2024 |
YoY |
Financial KPIs |
Optima |
2024a |
|
|
Net interest income |
1,901 |
2,088 |
-9% |
RoaTBV (%) |
13.5% |
15.0% |
|
|
Fee & rental income |
669 |
648 |
3% |
EPS |
0.81 |
0.81 |
|
|
Core income |
2,570 |
2,736 |
-6% |
Cost/Core income (%) |
35% |
32% |
|
|
Trading & other income |
83 |
21 |
295% |
CoR (%) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
Total revenues |
2,653 |
2,757 |
-4% |
NPE ratio (%) |
2.4% |
2.6% |
|
|
Operating expenses |
-900 |
-877 |
3% |
CET1 (%) |
13.0% |
14.7% |
|
|
Pre-Provision Profit |
1,753 |
1,880 |
-7% |
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company |
|||
|
Loan provisions |
-256 |
-281 |
-9% |
||||
|
Other |
-52 |
-168 |
-69% |
||||
|
Reported Net Profit |
1,072 |
1,066 |
1% |
||||
Source: Optima bank estimates, Company
HELLENiQ ENERGY || Neutral | Target Price: €9.80 | CP: €9.10
4Q25e preview | Strong quarter, driven by the refinery; positive outlook for 2026e; we expect €0.40 final DPS
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 4Q25e results tomorrow, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled for the same day. Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of €361m (-32.2%) y-o-y driven by the strong refining environment and solid production and “adjusted” net profits of €181m from €117m in 4Q24. Accounting for the negative impact from inventory and other one-offs of €87m (mainly Oil price drop), IFRS EBITDA and Net profits are seen at €274m and €130m respectively compared to EBITDA of €189m and €48m net profits in 4Q24. Note that our estimates are in line with consensus. With respect to the dividend, we expect HE to declare a final DPS of €0.40, raising total distributions for 2025 to €0.60/share.
Divisional Performance | Turning to divisional performance, we expect the solid production and the stronger y-o-y refining environment to boost performance and profitability of the refinery. In more detail, profitability in the quarter was positively affected by a) the uninterrupted operation of the refineries during the quarter and the strong refining environment (as the combined benchmark refining margin stood at $10.7/bbl, above $8.4/bbl and $5.1/bbl reported in 3Q25 and 4Q24 respectively). On the flip side, the adverse currency movement in 4Q25 (average €/$ at 1.164 in 4Q25 vs. $1.168 in 3Q25 and $1.066 in 4Q24 and the lower y-o-y oil prices (average oil price in 4Q25 at 63.4/bbl, down by $6.9 y-o-y and by $3.2/bbl q-o-q) are expected to took their toll on adjusted and reported profitability respectively. That said, we see refining EBITDA adj. at €329m (vs. €264m in 3Q25 and €232m a year ago), while marketing contribution is expected to remain strong at €25m, up by 77.9% y-o-y. With regards to Petchems, we expect the lower output and the bottoming margins during the quarter to weigh on segmental profitability, with the EBITDA contribution seen negative at €2m, vs. +€2m last year. Finally, we estimate RES and Enerwave utility EBITDA of €14m, down by 48% y-o-y, due to increased curtailments and softer margins from the electricity utility.
Other P&L | Further down the P&L, assuming depreciation expenses of €90m, financial expenses of €30m and an effective tax rate at 24%, “adjusted” group net income stands at €181m (IFRS Net Profits at €130m). Finally, due to the additional inventory needs and increased capex we see a further hike in Net Debt by c.€100m during the quarter to ~€2.4bn (from €1,792m in FY24).
4Q/FY25e Group Key P&L Estimates
|
EUR m |
4Q24 |
4Q25e |
YoY |
Consensus |
Optima vs. Consensus |
FY24 |
FY25e |
YoY |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
189 |
274 |
44.7% |
811 |
826 |
1.8% |
||
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
273 |
361 |
32.2% |
361 |
0.0% |
1026 |
1127 |
9.8% |
|
refining |
232 |
329 |
42.0% |
795 |
890 |
12.0% |
||
|
marketing |
14 |
25 |
77.9% |
124 |
159 |
28.1% |
||
|
petchems |
2 |
-2 |
nm |
54 |
19 |
-64.4% |
||
|
RES/Power & Gas |
26 |
14 |
-48.1% |
53 |
69 |
29.2% |
||
|
IFRS Net Income*, ** |
48 |
130 |
171.0% |
60 |
259 |
331.8% |
||
|
“Adjusted” Net Income* |
117 |
181 |
54.9% |
181 |
0.1% |
401 |
494 |
23.2% |
Source: Optima Bank, the Company
* Estimates are compiled based on the contribution from 13 brokerage firms
OTE 4Q/FY25 Preview – Results out tomorrow before market
4Q25 preview | OTE is scheduled to report 4Q/FY25 results tomorrow, before the opening of ATHEX, followed by a conference call at 13:00 Athens/11:00 London Time. We expect the quarter to show steady operational performance, with EBITDA (AL) up +2% y-o-y and FCF reaching €530m, supported by ongoing momentum in mobile, FTTH rollout as planned and solid ICT activity. Following the disposal of Telecom Romania on October 1st 2025, OTE operates exclusively in Greece, with the management focus centered on domestic growth, cash flow generation and shareholders returns.
4Q25 P&L | In more detail, we forecast revenues at €861m (+2.2% y-o-y) in 4Q and €3.4bn (+2% y-o-y) in FY25, adj. EBITDA AL to shape at €351m (+2% y-o-y) in 4Q and €1.37bn (+2% y-o-y) in FY25 and net profit to land at €158m (+2% y-o-y) in 4Q and at €613m (+2% y-o-y) in FY25.
Optima view | We expect results broadly in line with management’s guidance, with modest top‑line growth and stable margins. FCF is projected at €530m in FY25, up from €460m in FY24, providing improved capacity for shareholder distributions. Viewing the stock as a dividend‑yield story, our key focus will be on the payout ratio. Competition from PPC remains an ongoing risk, particularly as PPC launches more cost‑effective fiber offers, potentially pressuring pricing. Valuation at 8.8x P/E 2026E is undemanding, supporting OTE’s defensive profile.
|
P&L (€ m) |
Optima 4Q25e |
3Q25 |
QoQ |
4Q24a |
YoY |
|
Optima 2025e |
2024 |
YoY |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Total Revenues |
861 |
874 |
-2% |
843 |
2% |
|
3,409 |
3,334 |
2% |
|
o/w Retail fixed |
494 |
504 |
-2% |
486 |
1% |
|
2,010 |
1,951 |
3% |
|
o/w Mobile service |
339 |
341 |
-1% |
329 |
3% |
|
1,284 |
1,281 |
0% |
|
Adj. EBITDA AL |
351 |
360 |
-3% |
343 |
2% |
|
1,373 |
1346 |
2% |
|
margin (%) |
40.8% |
41.2% |
-1% |
40.7% |
0.1% |
|
40.3% |
40.4% |
-0.2% |
|
Adj. Net profit |
158 |
142 |
+12% |
155 |
2% |
|
613 |
600 |
2% |
Source: Optima bank research, Company
Note: Figures relate to Greece, following the disposal of Telekom Romania in 1/10/2025
METLEN expands its UK footprint with a 198 MW hybrid solar and storage project
METLEN continues to advance the United Kingdom’s energy transition through the delivery of integrated renewable energy projects that combine clean energy generation, battery storage and grid integration. The Bumble Bee Co-Located Renewable Energy Project, developed in collaboration with Cero Generation and its UK development partner Enso Energy, comprises a 78 MWp utility-scale solar PV and a 120 MW Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), with the commencement of construction expected to start shortly.
S&P affirms BB+ rating on METLEN despite the weak performance in 2025
S&P Global Ratings said that the lower-than-expected performance of METLEN’s energy business for full-year 2025 won’t have an immediate impact on our ‘BB+’ issuer credit rating or stable outlook at this stage. S&P now expects adjusted EBITDA of about €750m, which translates into debt to EBITDA of about 4.0x in 2025, which the agency expects to be temporary, as it believes that the adjusted debt to EBITDA will be close to 2.0x already in 2026 and then return comfortably below 2.0x in 2027-2028.
GEKTERNA and UKRHYDROENERGO proceed with their partnership (press)
According to press reports, GETERNA and UKROHYDROENERGO signed the exclusive non-disclosure document in the context of the energy projects which the former will develop in Ukraine. As a reminder, last November, GEK TERNA signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with UKRHYDROENERG, for the joint development and implementation of major hydroelectric and pumped-storage projects in Ukraine, with a total budget of approximately €1.5bn. The projects to be jointly developed include the Dniester PSPP Pump Storage (1,263 MW) and the New Pumping Station (220 MW).
Gaming branch hive-down completed; new subsidiary formed and parent renamed OPAP Holdings
The Company announces that on February 24, 2026, the demerger of its gaming operations branch—through hive‑down into a newly formed, wholly owned subsidiary—was completed with its registration in GEMI. The new subsidiary “Hellenic Football Prognostics Organization Single‑Member S.A.” becomes the universal successor to all assets, liabilities, contracts, and licenses related to the gaming branch. The parent Company remains the sole shareholder of the subsidiary and has changed its corporate name to “OPAP Holdings S.A.” with the trade name “OPAP Holdings.”
OPAP – Share capital reduction following cancellation of 11.46m treasury shares
The Extraordinary General Meeting of “Hellenic Football Prognostics Organization S.A.” on January 7, 2026, approved the cancellation of 11,459,263 treasury shares acquired through buyback programs, reducing the Company’s share capital by €3,437,778.90. Following the reduction, the share capital amounts to €107,581,043.40, divided into 358,603,478 registered shares of €0.30 each. The cancelled shares will be removed from trading on February 27, 2026.
Eurobank share buyback
Eurobank announced that during the period 16/02/2026-20/02/2026, it purchased 2,144,612 own shares, with an average purchase price of €3.9607 per share and a total cost of €8,494,183.55. Following the above purchases, Eurobank holds in total 16,373,828 own shares, which correspond to 0.451% of its share capital.
ELLAKTOR announces Completion of the Sale of Cambas Properties
ELLAKTOR announced the completion of the transfer of the Cambas properties (the Ktima Cambas with a 319,000 sqm and the Trigono Cambas with a 4,400 sqm surface) with a total surface area of 323.4 thousand sq.m. in Attica to DIMAND. The total consideration of the transaction amounted to €45.8m.
Calendar of Events
Macros
26/02/26 | Building Activity NOV (ELSTAT), Economic Sentiment Indicator FEB, Banking System Loans & Deposits JAN (BoG)
27/02/26 | Producer Price Index in Industry JAN (ELSTAT), Turnover Index in Retail Trade DEC (ELSTAT)
02/03/26 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI FEB
Market
27/02/26 | MSCI rebalancing effective date (Aft-mkt)
4Q/FY25 Results Release
26/02/26 | Eurobank (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Bank (Bef-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (trading update) (Bef-mkt)
27/02/26 | Alpha Bank (08:00 GR time), National Bank (Bef-mkt), Premia Properties (Bef-mkt), Trastor REIC (Aft-mkt)
02/03/26 | OPAP (Aft-mkt)
03/03/26 | Optima bank (Bef-mkt)
04/03/26 | Cenergy Holdings, LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
05/03/26 | CrediaBank (Aft-mkt), Viohalco
11/03/26 | Sarantis (Aft-mkt)
17/03/26 | Trade Estates REIC (Bef-mkt)
18/03/26 | Autohellas (Bef-mkt)
19/03/26 | PPC (Aft-mkt), TITAN, Motodynamics (Aft-mkt)
23/03/26 | AUSTRIACARD (Aft-mkt)
24/03/26 | Athens International Airport (Aft-mkt)
30/03/26 | BriQ Properties (Aft-mkt)
31/03/26 | METLEN, Orilina Properties (Aft-mkt), Piraeus Port Authority (Aft-mkt)
07/04/26 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)
20/04/26 | Phoenix Vega Mezz Plc, Sunrise Mezz Plc
21/04/26 | Qualco Group (Aft-mkt)
EGM / AGM
02/03/26 | Real Consulting (EGM)
16/03/26 | CrediaBank (EGM), Y/KNOT Invest (EGM)
20/03/26 | Trastor REIC (AGM)
15/04/26 | Athens International Airport (AGM)
21/04/26 | Piraeus Bank (AGM)
22/04/26 | Autohellas (AGM)
28/04/26 | BriQ Properties (AGM)
29/04/26 | Eurobank (AGM)
30/04/26 | National Bank (AGM)
05/05/26 | Optima bank (AGM)
15/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (AGM)
21/05/26 | METLEN (AGM)
12/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM)
26/06/26 | Alpha Bank (AGM)
23/03/26 | JUMBO (extraordinary cash distribution €0.50/share)
25/05/26 | Bank of Cyprus (final €0.50/share)
23/06/26 | Hellenic Exchanges (€ 0.11/share)
Capital Markets Day
05/03/26 | Piraeus Bank
09/03/26 | CrediaBank
Investor Update 2026
03/03/26 | Bank of Cyprus
Corporate Bond Issuance
26/02/26 | Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp – Start of trading of new bonds
στο Google News και μάθετε πρώτοι όλες τις ειδήσεις
