ATHEX headed south yesterday for a third consecutive session, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.54% at 2,045.81 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.55%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.18%, Banks Index: -0.17%) and the traded value was shaped at €251.3m, down from Tuesday’s €319.1m. We expect the market to try to recover today.
· IMF sees high primary surpluses in 2025-30e for Greece; Debt/GDP to drop by 25.8% by 2030e
· Central government budget execution January-September 2025 (preliminary)
· Reasoned opinion of the BoD of ATHEX on the voluntary tender offer submitted by Euronext
· Moody’s Ratings upgrades Intralot’s ratings to B2 with a stable outlook
· Eurobank 9M25 results on 30 October 2025
· Trastor’s Strategic Expansion into Logistics
IMF sees high primary surpluses in 2025-30e for Greece; Debt/GDP to drop by 25.8% by 2030e
IMF, in its October fiscal monitor, expects that Greece will record a primary surplus of 3.2% in 2025, (from 2.1% previously), 2.3% in 2026e and 1.8% in 2027-30e, which in turn should lower the gross debt/GDP ratio from 154.8% in 2024 to 146.7% in 2025e, to 141.9% in 2026e and further down to 130.2% by 2030e.
Central government budget execution January-September 2025 (preliminary)
Facts: According to preliminary MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-September 2025, the central government budget recorded a EUR 2,308m surplus vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 1,581m (based on the 2025 Budget introductory report) and an EUR 1,568m surplus in the same period in 2024. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 9,355m surplus vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 5,209m and an EUR 8,735m surplus in the same period in 2024.
Comment: It is noted that an amount of EUR 2,073m, which refers to the time differentiation of payments from ordinary budget, an amount of EUR 650m which refers to the time differentiation of military procurement and a EUR 342m tax revenue is fiscally accounted for in the year 2024 do not affect the outcome in fiscal terms. Excluding the abovementioned amounts, the surplus in the primary result on a modified cash basis is estimated at EUR 6,290m, EUR 1,081m above the target.
Company Headlines
Reasoned opinion of the BoD of ATHEX on the voluntary tender offer submitted by Euronext
ATHEX announced that the consideration of the Tender Offer submitted by EURONEXT for all ATHEX shares meets the criteria of “fair and reasonable” consideration it exceeded on the Tender Offer Date (€6.75/share) by 13.0% the “fair and reasonable” consideration (the 6month prior to the tender offer VWAP of €5.977/share).
Moody’s Ratings upgrades Intralot’s ratings to B2 with a stable outlook
Moody’s Ratings upgraded Intralot S.A.’s corporate family rating to B2 from Caa1 and its probability of default rating to B2-PD from Caa1-PD. Concurrently, it upgraded to B2 from B3 the instrument ratings of the €600m backed senior secured notes due 2031 and the €300m backed floating senior secured notes due 2031 senior secured notes with stable outlook. The upgrade of Intralot’s CFR and instrument ratings to B2 reflects the group’s improved business profile and strengthened liquidity following the completion of the BII acquisition. Short-term refinancing risk has been addressed following the repayment in full of the company’s syndicated bond loan and US term loan that were both due in 2026. Pro forma for the transaction, Intralot’s credit profile benefits from a significant increase in scale and the contribution from BII’s established position in the UK online gaming market. The company also benefits from broader products and services diversification across the gaming sector with presence across business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) segments. Furthermore, we anticipate that the acquisition will be accretive to margins and to free cash flow generation, enhancing the deleveraging capacity of the company. Following the completion of the BII acquisition, we expect Intralot’s Moody’s-adjusted gross leverage to be around 4.3x on a pro forma basis for the year 2025. We forecast solid revenue growth from 2026 onwards supported by growth in both B2C and B2B activities. We expect the group’s resulting EBITDA growth to support a gradual reduction in leverage to below 4.0x on a Moody’s-adjusted gross leverage basis. There are however downside risks to the company’s EBITDA growth and deleveraging prospects in the coming years in case Intralot’s B2B division fails to renew major contracts or to win new contracts.
Eurobank 9M25 results on 30 October 2025
Eurobank announced that it will report 9M25 results on Thursday 30 October 2025, after the market closing. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 18.00 Athens time.
Trastor’s Strategic Expansion into Logistics
According to Kathimerini.gr, Trastor REIC is set to complete the acquisition of Greece’s largest logistics center by year-end, a 75,000 sq.m. facility leased to Sklavenitis, with an estimated value of €84m and annualized rental income of €5.4m. The transaction reflects Trastor’s strategic co-investment approach, having partnered with Karpathios Development during the asset development phase. Concurrently, the company is capitalizing on asset recovery opportunities through its settlement with Seagull, repossessing three logistics properties and re-leasing them at higher rates, including a 25,000 sq.m. facility now leased to Westnet.
16/10/25 | 2024 GDP (provisional data) (ELSTAT)
17/10/25 | Standard & Poor’s – Greek sovereign credit review
20/10/25 | Turnover Index in Industry AUG (ELSTAT)
21/10/25 | 2021-2024 Fiscal Data (2nd notification) (ELSTAT), Current Account Balance AUG (BoG)
16/10/25 | Prodea Investments (Aft-mkt)
23/10/25 | Sarantis (Bef-mkt)
30/10/25 | Eurobank Holdings (Aft-mkt), Coca-Cola HBC (7:00 am GMT), Papoutsanis (Bef-mkt)
31/10/25 | Piraeus Financial Holdings
03/11/25 | Αthens Ιnternational Αirport (Bef-mkt)
04/11/25 | PPC (Aft-mkt)
06/11/25 | National Bank of Greece, ΤΙΤΑΝ, METLEN
07/11/25 | Alpha Bank (Bef-mkt)
11/11/25 | Optima bank, Bank of Cyprus (Bef-mkt)
13/11/25 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (Aft-mkt), OTE (Bef-mkt), Austriacard Holdings
17/11/25 | Lavipharm (Aft-mkt)
19/11/25 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), ElvalHalcor (Aft-mkt), Cenergy Holdings
20/11/25 | CrediaBank, Alpha Trust Andromeda (Aft-mkt), IDEAL Holdings (Bef-mkt)
24/11/25 | Hellenic Exchanges (Aft-mkt)
25/11/25 | Fourlis Holdings (Aft-mkt)
27/11/25 | AS Company (Aft-mkt)
31/10/25 | Biokarpet (EGM), Thessaloniki Port Authority (EGM)
20/10/25 | Moda Bagno (€0.0591229665/share)
03/11/25 | OPAP (interim €0.50/share)
05/11/25 | BriQ Properties (interim €0.08/share)
06/11/25 | Eurobank (interim dividend)
10/11/25 | National Bank of Greece (interim dividend)
01/12/25 | Alpha Bank (interim €0.0481668788/share)
02/12/25 | CNL CAPITAL (interim €0.15/share)
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